1. What is a red flag for Kentucky's Julius Randle?
Kevin Pelton: For Julius Randle, one stat stands out above all others: steals. In 525 minutes this season, the Kentucky freshman has recorded just five steals. Five! And four of those have come in the past two weeks. It's difficult to understand how a player as talented as Randle could possibly not have more steals; it seems like he'd come up with a handful simply by accident.
This might not seem like a big deal. After all, how important are steals for a power forward? Historically, however, steal rate has outsized importance in predicting how well prospects will translate to the NBA. Consider this: When steal rate is adjusted by position average, the top 25 prospects in my NCAA database have on average outproduced their position in the draft by 1.1 WARP. This group includes draft-day steals like DeJuan Blair, Kenneth Faried, Danny Granger, Paul Millsap and Jameer Nelson.
By contrast, the 25 worst players in position-adjusted steal rate have on average produced 0.5 WARP fewer than expected based on their draft position. The lottery picks among this group (Joe Alexander, Ed Davis, Ike Diogu, Brandon Knight, Alex Len, Shabazz Muhammad and Hasheem Thabeet) have generally been disappointments. So, Chad, what are scouts telling you about Randle's conspicuous lack of steals?
Chad Ford: Well, they're probably running for the hills after seeing those comps. Joe Alexander and Hasheem Thabeet? Yikes.
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2. Does that mean Randle is overrated?
Ford: Before the season began, many scouts saw Randle as the second-best prospect in the draft, a prototypical power forward who could score from anywhere on the floor and was a beast on the boards.
For the most part, he's had a great freshman season. He's been a double-double machine for Kentucky and carried a huge load on his shoulders. His motor runs hot on virtually every play (at least on the offensive end).
However, his stock has slid this season -- though not primarily because of his steal rate. The stat guys in the league have all been buzzing about that, but the more traditional scouts have been concerned with Randle's struggles against long, athletic bigs. In high school, Randle used his strength and motor to overpower people. He still does that some nights at the college level, but his 50 percent shooting mark at the rim isn't great for a player with his reputation. Plus, he has struggled when matched up against other long, athletic big men. Given that's what he'll face every night in the NBA, that's a concern.
Scouts also have been disappointed that we really haven't seen Randle's perimeter game shine this season. Nearly 50 percent of his shots this season have been jumpers, but he's hitting just 36 percent of his 2-point jumpers and just 11 percent from 3-point range. So given the buzz about Randle's ability to stretch the floor coming into the season, that's a bit of a disappointment, too.
Pelton: Right. A stroll through my database of NCAA translations also indicates that WARP projections give steal rate adequate weight without any adjustments. That's important because it means a low steal rate can be overcome by elite performance elsewhere. Such was the case with Ryan Anderson, the most extreme outlier in terms of steals. Prior to Len last season, Anderson's college steal rate was the single lowest relative to position of any player who reached the NBA in the past decade. Yet Anderson's WARP projection still rated third best in his draft, and he's exceeded it during his pro career, becoming an analytics darling.
Part of the issue is that the rest of Randle's offensive numbers have been merely good, not dominant. Translated to its NBA equivalent, his 49.9 percent 2-point mark is only average, and his turnover rate is a major weakness. Randle has been elite on the glass, but more was expected of a possible No. 1 pick.
Ford: It's good that you are pointing out that when you are looking at these WARP projections, it's one tool of many that a front office uses in evaluating a draft pick. No one single factor goes into drafting or not drafting a player.
Something like a low steal rate becomes a sort of a red flag that causes good front offices to dig deeper to understand why it's so low and to give players a second and third look.
And we also have to be careful about outliers. Just because Anderson bucks the trend here is not evidence alone that we should ignore that. If the vast majority of highly ranked power forward prospects with low steal rates have struggled in the NBA, you don't ignore that because there was one or two guys who didn't.
When the numbers and eyes and ears all align, it's easy to project a player. But when they are at odds with one another, it's a signal to be careful.
With that said, it's been assumed all season the Randle was the best power forward prospect in the draft. But if the stat guys aren't impressed, and the scouts are a little disappointed, is there another guy who might be a better choice?
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3. Which power forward might be a better NBA prospect than Randle?
Pelton: I find myself leaning toward Indiana's Noah Vonleh as the better freshman power forward. On a per-minute basis, their numbers are fairly similar. Randle is the better scorer, but there are a couple of reasons to favor Vonleh. First, because he reclassified, Vonleh is almost nine months younger than Randle and won't turn 19 until next August. Second, his steal rate is more than three times better than Randle's and solidly above average for a big man.
Vonleh might not have the "star" potential of Randle, but I tend to believe he's the stronger bet to be a solid contributor in the NBA.
Ford: It's not just the numbers that are starting to lean toward Vonleh. In the past week, I've had several NBA scouts tell me that they are now leaning toward him over Randle. That's a major change. Vonleh has been regarded as a top-10 pick, but this is the first time I'm hearing teams project him as a potential top-five pick -- and getting drafted ahead of Randle.
Why? He's bigger and longer, which are two factors that scouts obsess about. He also has, in the past few weeks, stretched his game out into the perimeter. In his past four games, Vonleh is 7-for-9 from behind the arc. His stroke looks really pure and he's beginning to look comfortable on the perimeter.
He also has a higher rebounding rate than Randle on the defensive boards. Plus, he shoots nearly 20 percent better from the field at the rim (70.1 percent to Randle's 50.2), he's more accurate on his 2-point jumpers (40.9 percent to 36.6) and much more accurate in his 3-point shooting (55.6 percent to Randle's 11).
So Vonleh is younger, taller, longer, shoots better from the field and possesses a better rebounding rate than Randle. The question we really should be asking ourselves is: "Why exactly is Randle ahead of Vonleh on the Big Board?"
첫댓글 랜들의 거품이 의심되는 이유는 단 하나죠. 단순무식함. 정말 놀라우리만큼 단순하다 싶을 정도로 득점 패턴이 단순합니다. 그런데 이게 서서히 다른 대학들에게 읽히면서 힘을 잃고 있습니다. 게다가 점프슛이 없는 수준에 가깝고 시야도 좁아서 페인트존에서 밀려나면 옵션이 없습니다. 그렇다고 엠비드처럼 사이즈가 타고난 경우도 아니고 애매한 사이즈의 빅맨입니다. 6-9에 250파운드인데 전혀 위압감이 없어요. 대학 무대에서는 어중간한 사이즈로도 골밑 폭격이 가능하지만 프로라면 제일 잡아먹기 쉬운 유형의 플레이가 랜들처럼 애매한 사이즈의 포워드가 골밑 돌진만 하는 유형입니다.
이미 랜들 외에도 대부분의 탑 클래스 유망주들이 빛은 고사하고 거품만 계속 꺼지고 있는 추세라서 이번 드래프트는 전형적으로 빈 수레만 요란한 드래프트가 될 가능성이 높습니다. 그나마 기대치를 충족시키는 파커는 원앤던을 하지 않을 가능성이 높아졌고요. 이것만으로도 탱킹 전략의 3분의 1은 실패입니다. 거물이 오지 않으면 아무리 픽 순위 높고 샐러리캡 널널해봐야 소용없으니까요.
본레가 아직 보여주지 못한 면도 많죠. 인디애나 세트오펜스가 부실하고 가드 중심이라 많은 기회가 주어지지 않고 있습니다. 이는 강점과 약점이 모두 덜 노출되었다는 양면성이 있으니까요. 본레가 랜들보다는 큰데 over the rim player가 아닌 건 마찬가지고요. 외곽슛은 본레가 낫지만 랜들은 거의 대부분 집중견제를 받는 선수니 야투율이 상대적으로 낮은것도 이해가 갑니다. 해리슨 형제와 영이 좀 더 해줘야 할텐데 말입니다. 그리고 본문에서 간과한 중요데이터는 FT인데 랜들은 전미최고 수준인 8.3FTA/GM이라는 주목할만한 수치를 기록중입니다. 리바운드 수치도 컬리스타인과 포이뜨리스라는 굿 리바운더가 한팀인것도 감안해야죠
저도 야투율이 그닥 신통치 않음에도 더 좋은 득점원이라는 말에서 자유투를 한 번 언급해 줬어야 하지 않았나 생각해 봅니다. 물론 단순 개요로 생각했을 때 신통치 않은 야투율에 득점이 높다는 것은 자유투밖에 생각이 안나는 것이 당연한 거겠지만요.
랜들은 팔도 좀 짧은 것 같이 보이네요. 신체조건이나 운동능력이나 다소 아쉬워보입니다.
전 요즘 펠튼의 글이 참 마음에 들지 않는데요, 빅맨에게 스틸 수치를 들이대며 warp를 통해 재단하는거나 본레와 랜들의 나이 차이가 아홉달에 불과한데도 이를 과장해서 단순히 어리다고 좋아하는거나.. 뭔가 논리성이 결여되어 있는 것 같아요. 홀린저는 경기를 많이 보면서 스탯으로 분석했지만 펠튼은 숫자에 경도되어 게임의 중요한 흐름을 놓치고 있은 것은 아닌가 하는 걱정이 드네요.
저도 빅맨에게 가로채기 수치를 적용하는건 첨 보네요. 너무 스탯을 위한 해석 중심이 아닌지
저도 홀린져가 떠나갈 당시에 그런 생각을 많이 갖고 있었어요. 펠튼의 글이 너무 재미없던 이유 중 하나가 코트 위 모습이 거의 없고 통계 이야기로만 글이 빽빽 채워지곤 했기 때문이죠.
그런데 이것이 또 이 사람의 기본 줄기이기 때문에 보는 매력도 있습니다. 이 사람의 재능 평가 기준의 중요한 잣대가 트렌드인데요. 통계 상에서 나오는 흐름에 상당한 가치를 두고 있죠. 그래서 SCHOENE 같은 히스토리 통계를 통한 전망 시스템을 구축한 것이기도 하구요.
나이와 특정 스탯의 이전 경향 등은 SCHOENE 전망에서 중요한 역할을 하기에 펠튼 입장에선 선호할 근거이기도 하죠.
ncaa를 본 지 얼마 안되어서 조금 주저스럽긴 하지만 제 의견을 살짝 말씀드려본다면, 스틸과 블락만큼은 하위리그에서의 스탯이 상위리그 활약을 가늠할 중요한 척도라고 생각합니다. 대학때 특급블락머신은 nba에서 특급이 될수도 C급이 될수도 있겠지만, 대학때도 30분당 1개도 못하는 선수가 A급 블락커가 될 일은 절대 없으니깐요... 스틸과 블락은 주전급 그릇이 아니라고 판명나더라도, 리그에서 살아남을 수 있는 보험성 재능이라고 볼 때, 비정상적으로 빈약한 랜들의 블락과 스틸은... 분명 큰 물음표라고 생각합니다.
언더사이즈 빅맨치고... 블락 또는 스틸 둘 다 약하면서도 리그에서 살아남은 예가 딱히 생각 안나기도 하고요..
잭 랜돌프 :-)
알 제퍼슨이나 그렉 먼로처럼 수직 높이가 부족한데도 살아남는 경우가 왕왕 있긴 합니다. 물론 쉽진 않죠..
스틸과 블럭이 일반 기록들 중에서는 운동능력을 가장 잘 나타내주는 척도기 때문에
드래프트 평가할 때 보통 이 두 수치를 중요하게 보죠.
@muzzle 그렇군요. 빅맨에게 블락은 그럴것 같은데 스틸도 그런지는 몰랐네요.
좋은 정보 감사드립니다.