The top five players on our 2014 NBA draft Big Board have remained steady, give or take. But the challengers are coming.
Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart continues to have big fans in the NBA. Kevin Pelton and I recently discussed the growing debate among NBA scouts and GMs about the best power forward prospect -- Kentucky's Julius Randle or Indiana's Noah Vonleh? Now there's growing buzz among NBA scouts about another freshman, Syracuse's Tyler Ennis. Ennis has been so good and so steady for the second-best team in the country that some scouts are saying he -- not Smart or Australia's Dante Exum -- might be the best point guard prospect in the draft.
With so much scouting buzz about the draft over the past few weeks, it's time to make some more adjustments to the Big Board.
Here is our sixth Big Board for the 2014 NBA draft.
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1Joel EmbiidSCHOOL: KansasAGE: 19HT/WT: 7-0, 240POS: C11.2 PPG7.4 RPG2.8 BPG
A few weeks ago, when we put Embiid atop our Big Board, it still seemed like a risky thing to do. Two weeks later, it's conventional wisdom. Within hours of putting out our last Big Board, more and more scouts and GMs began texting me with what I already expected to hear: Embiid is now the presumptive favorite to be the No. 1 pick. Long, athletic, 7-foot shot-blockers who score in multiple ways can be tough to find.
Previous rank: No. 1 | PLAYER CARD
2Andrew WigginsSCHOOL: KansasAGE: 18HT/WT: 6-8, 200POS: SG15.8 PPG6.0 RPG1.6 APG
Wiggins continues to be a little up and down. When he's on, he's one of the smoothest scorers in the country. He dropped 27 points on TCU on Saturday and made everything look easy. But he had just three points against Oklahoma State the week before and looked like a ghost. Despite the lack of consistency, there are few players in the college game who have his physical tools. As he grows into his game, he has the chance to be a lethal NBA player.
Previous rank: No. 2 | PLAYER CARD
3Jabari ParkerSCHOOL: DukeAGE: 18HT/WT: 6-8, 241POS: SF18.8 PPG8.1 RPG1.3 APG
Parker's shooting woes in the NCAA continue (he went just 3-for-13 against Miami and 7-for-19 against Pittsburgh), but he's made up for some of it with some huge rebounding numbers. He pulled down 15 boards against Miami, 14 against Florida State and 11 against Pittsburgh. For someone who takes the rap as one-dimensional, it really helps to add numbers to other parts of the box score.
Previous rank: No. 3 | PLAYER CARD
4Dante ExumCOUNTRY: AustraliaAGE: 18HT/WT: 6-6, 188POS: PG18.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG at FIBA U-19s
On Tuesday, Exum's family told ESPN that he has declared for the 2014 NBA draft and hired agent Rob Pelinka from Landmark Sports Agency. With some of the other top prospects struggling a bit right now, Exum could really capitalize, while he sits at home doing nothing, and move his way back into the top three.
Previous rank: No. 5 | PLAYER CARD
5Julius RandleSCHOOL: KentuckyAGE: 18HT/WT: 6-9, 225POS: PF16.6 PPG10.5 RPG1.7 APG
For teams currently getting off the Randle bandwagon, his game against LSU on Tuesday evening was Exhibit A for what has them worried. Randle finished with just six points (3-for-11 shooting) and five rebounds in Kentucky's loss to LSU. The problem for Randle was LSU's front line. The long, athletic combo of Johnny O'Bryant, Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey gave Randle all sorts of trouble inside. Randle has struggled in the past against long, athletic defenders, and LSU disrupted Randle on both ends of the floor. One game won't sway the needle too far in either direction, but this does explain why teams have quit discussing him as a potential No. 1 pick.
Previous rank: No. 4 | PLAYER CARD
6Marcus SmartSCHOOL: Oklahoma StateAGE: 19HT/WT: 6-4, 225POS: PG17.3 PPG5.7 RPG4.4 APG
Smart divides a lot of scouts in the NBA. Lately, he's had everyone just a little bit worried. His four-point game against West Virginia (which included a public outburst) was probably just an anomaly. But over the past three games, Smart is shooting just 10-for-39 from the field and just 3-for-21 from 3-point range. Those inconsistent numbers are starting to open the door for a player like Ennis, who is less dramatic yet more consistent, to make a run at the top PG position.
Previous rank: No. 6 | PLAYER CARD
7Aaron GordonSCHOOL: ArizonaAGE: 18HT/WT: 6-8, 210POS: PF12.3 PPG7.8 RPG1.6 APG
Gordon isn't a great offensive player, but his reputation on the defense end, elite athletic abilities and hustle keep him in the mix to be a top-10 pick. One subject that Kevin Pelton and I will have to take up soon is that Gordon's steal rate -- a significant statistical indicator to many people -- is pretty low for his draft status. Not Julius Randle low, but low nonetheless.
Previous rank: No. 7 | PLAYER CARD
8Noah VonlehSCHOOL: IndianaAGE: 18HT/WT: 6-10, 240POS: PF12.0 PPG9.6 RPG1.3 BPG
As Pelton and I pointed out on Friday, there is a lot to love about Vonleh. He is younger, longer, a better rebounder on the defensive glass, and a better shooter than Randle is right now. While stats aren't everything, there are a number of GMs and scouts who think they'd take Vonleh over Randle. While Vonleh hasn't gotten enough buzz to move him ahead of Randle, the talk is rampant.
Previous rank: No. 9 | PLAYER CARD
9Dario SaricCOUNTRY: CroatiaAGE: 19HT/WT: 6-10, 223POS: SF15.5 PPG8.4 RPG2.5 APG
Saric has quietly been doing his thing in Croatia over the winter -- but expect that to change soon. A number of NBA scouts and GMs are planning to head over to the Balkans as soon as the trade deadline is over to get a better look at him. Based on what I've heard from the scouts who've already been over there, they'll like what they see.
Previous rank: No. 8 | PLAYER CARD
10Tyler EnnisSCHOOL: SyracuseAGE: 19HT/WT: 6-2, 180POS: PG12.0 PPG3.3 RPG5.4 APG
Ennis is the hottest name in scouting circles at the moment. There's very little that's sexy about his game, but he's one of the most dependable, sure-handed freshman I've ever seen. He has led his team to a perfect record and the No. 2 ranking in the country. He has a 4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, shoots 40 percent from 3-point range, and averages 2.5 steals a game. With so many NBA teams in dire need of a point guard, Ennis is beginning to look like a lock to go high in the draft.
Previous rank: 21 | PLAYER CARD
11Gary HarrisSCHOOL: Michigan StateAGE: 19HT/WT: 6-4, 210POS: SG18.8 PPG4.5 RPG2.8 APG
Harris had a series of great games against Illinois, Indiana and Michigan before coming back down to earth against Iowa on Tuesday. Scouts had been concerned about his struggles from deep before he went a combined 10-for-16 from 3-point range against Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. However, he went 0-for-4 from deep against Iowa, and his 3-point shooting is back down below 35 percent. If he can get it near 40 percent by the end of the season, Harris should be a lock for the lottery.
Previous rank: No. 13 | PLAYER CARD
12Rodney HoodSCHOOL: DukeAGE: 21HT/WT: 6-8, 180POS: SG17.4 PPG4.6 RPG2.1 APG
When Hood's jump shot is falling (he's shooting 44 percent on 3s this season), he's one of the more lethal wings in the country. What scouts want to see more of is what happened in Saturday's game against Florida State. His shot wasn't falling against the Seminoles, so Hood put the ball on the floor and got to the line (he was 9-of-11 from the stripe).
Previous rank: No. 12 | PLAYER CARD
13Zach LaVineSCHOOL: UCLAAGE: 18HT/WT: 6-5, 180POS: PG12.0 PPG2.7 RPG2.3 APG
LaVine continues to produce up-and-down performances in Pac-12 play. He can be hyper-efficient, as he was against Stanford on Thursday, scoring 10 points on 4-for-6 shooting and handing out six assists to just one turnover. Or he can sort of disappear, as he did for much of the Cal game (1-for-5 from the floor). LaVine is still young and raw, but his upside keeps him in the conversation as a lottery pick.
Previous rank: 10 | PLAYER CARD
14Nik StauskasSCHOOL: MichiganAGE: 20HT/WT: 6-6, 205POS: G18.5 PPG3.7 RPG3.8 APG
NBA 3-point shooting comes at a premium, and Stauskas' play this season has vaulted him from the first-round bubble into lottery territory. On a huge stage against Michigan State and Gary Harris, Stauskas responded with 19 points (5-for-6 on 3s). Three nights before, he dropped 26 points on Iowa while shooting 4-for-9 from beyond the arc. His ability to handle the ball and his improved ability to get to the line this season is gravy at this point.
Previous rank: NR | PLAYER CARD
15Doug McDermottSCHOOL: CreightonAGE: 22HT/WT: 6-7, 210POS: SF24.3 PPG7.2 RPG1.7 APG
McDermott will get drafted primarily for his ability to shoot the rock as well as his ability to put it on the floor when the defense closes out on him. He's not a great athlete, nor a great defender, but his shooting alone should give him a long, Kyle Korver-like career in the NBA.
Previous rank: No. 14 | PLAYER CARD
16Montrezl HarrellSCHOOL: LouisvilleAGE: 19HT/WT: 6-8, 235POS: PF12.1 PPG8.5 RPG1.2 BPG
Harrell is starting to come on strong in the second half of the season; he has posted double-doubles in four of his last five games, including an 18-point, 13-rebound effort at UConn. He is undersized and can't shoot free throws, but his length, explosiveness around the basket, and motor make up for much of it.
Previous rank: No. 16 | PLAYER CARD
17Jerami GrantSCHOOL: SyracuseAGE: 19HT/WT: 6-8, 203POS: SF12.7 PPG6.6 RPG1.6 APG
He still hasn't made a 3-point jumper this season, but that doesn't stop scouts from drooling over the long-term potential of Grant. Blessed with elite athleticism, a high basketball IQ and a great motor, he's a jump shot away from being a top-10 pick.
Previous rank: No. 17 | PLAYER CARD
18James YoungSCHOOL: KentuckyAGE: 18HT/WT: 6-7, 200POS: SF14.2 PPG4.4 RPG2.0 APG
Young had one of his better games of the season on Tuesday against LSU, scoring 23 points, grabbing seven boards and hitting five 3s. He has been the most consistent scorer for Kentucky this season, but NBA teams interested in Young would still like to see him increase his shooting percentage. Despite his rep as a great shooter, he's shooting just 33 percent from 3-point range.
Previous rank: No. 15 | PLAYER CARD
19Willie Cauley-SteinSCHOOL: KentuckyAGE: 19HT/WT: 7-0, 220POS: C8.0 PPG6.8 RPG3.4 BPG
Cauley-Stein has been in a major funk of late. In his last four games, he's hit just four field goals, collected just 13 rebounds and, with the exception of a six-block game against Georgia, hasn't really been blocking shots either. Teams have always been intrigued with his combination of length and athleticism, but he has to start showing some heart or he'll start plummeting.
Previous rank No. 11 | PLAYER CARD
20Mario HezonjaCOUNTRY: CroatiaAGE: 19HT/WT: 6-7, 200POS: SF3.2 PPG1.9 RPG8.5 MPG
International scouts are still obsessed with Hezonja. Some claim he's the best young international talent in the draft. However, his lack of meaningful minutes for FCB Regal this season has made it difficult for front offices to gauge where he fits in this draft. Someone is going to gamble on his talent, likely somewhere between the lottery and the late first round.
Previous rank: No. 19 | PLAYER CARD
21Kyle AndersonSCHOOL: UCLAAGE: 20HT/WT: 6-9, 235POS: PF15.5 PPG9.0 RPG6.7 APG
Throughout the season, scouts have been very divided about his NBA translation, but lately Anderson's play has been hard to ignore. He's been doing everything: passing the ball, rebounding and scoring. He's even shooting 53 percent from 3 this season. True, he's not an athlete, and UCLA has been trying to hide him on defense all season, but his offensive wizardry makes him an intriguing choice somewhere in the second half of the first round.
Previous rank: 24 | PLAYER CARD 22Adreian PayneSCHOOL: Michigan StateAGE: 22HT/WT: 6-10, 225POS: F/C16.2 PPG7.7 RPG1.5 APG
Payne missed his sixth consecutive game on Tuesday against Iowa. But teams are still convinced that he should be a serviceable stretch 4 when he gets to the NBA.
Previous rank: 21 | PLAYER CARD
23Sam DekkerSCHOOL: WisconsinAGE: 19HT/WT: 6-8, 215POS: SF14.2 PPG6.4 RPG1.5 APG
Dekker continues to have a lot of fans, but his 3-point shooting woes the past month have hurt his stock. Dekker is down to 32 percent on 3s and has hit just four of his last 18 attempts. He has to be a better shooter from distance to crack the top 20.
Previous rank: No. 18 | PLAYER CARD
24Wayne Selden Jr.SCHOOL: KansasAGE: 19HT/WT: 6-5, 230POS: SG9.9 PPG2.7 RPG2.5 APG
While both Embiid and Wiggins flourish on a regular basis in the Kansas offense, Selden continues to get lost in the shuffle at times. In games against Oklahoma State and Baylor, he shot a combined 3-for-14 from the field and 2-for-9 from beyond the arc. He picked it up again against TCU, but he's going to have a tough choice to make as he gets closer to the draft. Playing in the shadow of Wiggins and Embiid has taken away from his draft stock. Would another season at Kansas push him into the lottery?
Previous rank: No. 20 | PLAYER CARD
25Chris WalkerSCHOOL: FloridaAGE: 18HT/WT: 6-9, 195POS: SFN/AN/AN/A
Walker continues to wait and wait and wait on the NCAA for his clearance. But there has been somewhat of a silver lining: He's been able to practice with the team since mid-December, and after a slow start he is finally picking up the Gators' offensive and defensive schemes. Coach Billy Donovan says he'll play Walker when he becomes eligible. No one expects him to dominate once he's eligible, but reminding scouts about his elite athletic abilities should do wonders for his draft stock.
Previous rank: No. 22 | PLAYER CARD
26Semaj ChristonSCHOOL: XavierAGE: 21HT/WT: 6-3, 187POS: PG17.0 PPG2.9 RPG3.9 APG
When Christon is playing like a point guard, he can get scouts drooling in a hurry. But when he moves to his more comfortable role of scoring, the interest wanes a bit. He had a total of four assists and six turnovers in the past three games. That's not helping his stock.
Previous rank: 25 | PLAYER CARD
27C.J. WilcoxSCHOOL: WashingtonAGE: 23HT/WT: 6-5, 180POS: SG19.6 PPG4.2 RPG2.5 APG
Wilcox is another player who will get drafted primarily because when he gets his 3-point jumper falling, there aren't many better shooters in the country. If he were two years younger, he'd be in the conversation for the lottery.
Previous rank: No. 27 | PLAYER CARD
28Jabari BirdSCHOOL: CalAGE: 19HT/WT: 6-6, 190POS: SG9.6 PPG2.6 RPG1.3 APG
Bird has been back on the floor for four straight games after missing time with an ankle injury, and he is still finding his rhythm. In 17 minutes against UCLA on Sunday, he shot the ball 11 times and scored 12 points. His 3-point shot wasn't falling, but scouts don't have a lot of long-term concerns about it. He's a young, super-athletic, prototypical 2-guard. The NBA needs more of those.
Previous rank: No. 29 | PLAYER CARD
29Andrew HarrisonSCHOOL: KentuckyAGE: 19HT/WT: 6-5, 207POS: PG11.1 PPG3.1 RPG3.6 APG
Harrison had a breakout 26-point game against Tennessee two weeks ago, but the rest of his performances of late have reverted back to mediocre at best and pathetic at worst. His eight-point, one-assist game against LSU on Tuesday isn't going to get it done for NBA scouts. Harrison wants to leave Kentucky after this season and head to the NBA. However, he has to play much, much better to have a shot at working his way back into the lottery.
Previous rank: No. 30 | PLAYER CARD
30Glenn Robinson IIISCHOOL: MichiganAGE: 20HT/WT: 6-6, 210POS: SF13.6 PPG4.4 RPG1.4 APGRobinson's stock was starting to pick up again until back-to-back struggles against Iowa and Michigan State highlighted the fact that he is still a tweener who can't shoot it from 3-point range. He's down to 28 percent shooting from behind the arc. Someone will draft him based on his athleticism and pedigree. But he's got a long way to go to make it as a 3 in the NBA.
Previous rank: No. 28 | PLAYER CARD
Next five in: Jahii Carson, PG, Arizona State; T.J. Warren, F, North Carolina State; P.J. Hairston, G, Texas Legends (NBADL); Jusuf Nurkic, C, Bosnia; Clint Capela, PF, Switzerland
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첫댓글 저는 에니스가 스마트, 엑섬과 레벨 차이가 있고 포텐셜도 높지 않게 봤는데 전문가 평가가 매우 좋네요. 요즘 스타우스커스가 뜨거운만큼 주가가 폭등했고, 워커는 곧 데뷔전을 치를테니 지켜봐야겠습니다. 그나저나 데커는 꾸준히 일라운드 중반에는 있네요. 전형적인 대학용 백인 포워드같은데..
자바리에서는 파커>버드군요
아, 나의 ms가.....
이 녀석은 그 놈의 기복이 문제입니다.
이번에도 아니나 다르게 어김없이 좋은 정보 감사드립니다~!! ㅋ
21번에 카일 앤더슨의 스탯은 엄청나네요. UCLA 파포가 15.5 P 9.0 R. 6.7 A 라니. 포인트 포워드인가요?
지난 Big Board에서 포인트 파워 포워드라고 설명하더군요. 대신 박스스코어 밖의 영역에서는 상당히 약점을 가지고 있어서 의견이 분분하다고 하네요.