|
Updated: April 22, 2014, 09:27 PM EST 2014 NBA Mock Draft 4.0There's no debating the top three, but who will Milwaukee take No. 1?
NBA 정규 시즌이 끝났다. 대학 농구 시즌도 종료됐다.
이 말은 곧 Mock Draft 4.0을 돌릴 때가 됐다는 말이다.
하지만 이번 모의 드래프트는 확실함과는 거리가 있다. 아직 우리는 5 월 중순에 열리는 NBA 드래프트 컴바인에서 나올 결과들을 파악하는 단계를 밟아야 한다. 그리고 여기에 이어 바로 진행되는 NBA 로터리가 있고, 여기에서 최종적인 드래프트 순번이 정해질 것이다. 또한 개인별 혹은 그룹별 워크아웃들에 더하여 면접, 심리 검사, 의료 검진표까지 모두가 이 모의 드래프트를 상당부분 뒤흔들어 놓을 여지가 크다.
그래도 올해 내내 우리의 탑 8은 큰 변화를 거치치 않았다. 정확한 순서는 아직 정해지지 않았지만, 마지막 순간의 돌발 변수만 없다면 모두 탑 10 픽은 굳혀 놓을 것이다.
기억해 둘 것은 우리의 모의 드래프트가 '우리가 탑 플레이어들이라 생각하는' 이들의 랭킹이 아니라는 점이다. 대신 각 팀들이 드래프트에서 어떤 결정을 내릴지에 대해 NBA 스카우트들과 GM들로부터 우리가 최근 수집한 정보를 전달해주는 보고 수단이라 할 수 있다.
순번은 우리의 NBA Lottery Mock Draft tool에 기초를 뒀다.
* 피스톤즈는 로터리 순번에서 8 순위 아래로 떨어지면 퍼스트 라운드 픽을 샬럿에게 보내야 한다.
* 펠리컨스는 로터리의 탑 3 순위들 중 하나에 당첨되지 못하면 필라델피아에게 퍼스트 라운드 픽을 보내야 한다. |
원문은 아래 더보기 클릭
The NBA regular season is over. The college basketball season is done.
That means it's time to roll out Mock Draft 4.0.
However, this mock draft is far from set in stone. We still must take into consideration results that will come from the NBA draft combine in mid-May. That's followed shortly by the NBA draft lottery, which will determine the final draft order. Also individual and group workouts, as well as interviews, psychological evaluations and medical reports can all still shake up this mock a lot.
Still, our top eight really has held steady all year. The exact order isn't set yet, but it looks like, barring some last-minute revelation, they'll all be locks for a top-10 pick.
Remember our mock draft is not a ranking of who we think the top players are. Instead, it's a reporting tool to convey our latest intel from NBA scouts and GMs on what each team might do in the draft.
The order was based on our NBA Lottery Mock Draft tool.
1Andrew WigginsMilwaukee Bucks (15 - 67)COLLEGE: KansasHT: 6-8WT: 200POS: SG
Odds of winning lottery: 25 percent
Analysis: Now that the Bucks are for sale, everything about their future is a little up in the air. It's unclear whether the new owners will keep John Hammond and David Morway on. They have two years left on their contract and were actually fighting their owner Herb Kohl the past few years. They wanted to rebuild, but Kohl didn't. Injuries forced the issue this year; it would be ironic if they lost their jobs after delivering the Bucks their first real chance at landing a superstar. Either way, I don't think there's a clear-cut favorite right now. They were leaning toward Joel Embiid before his back injury and could still end up going that way if Embiid comes out with a clean bill of health at the combine. Jabari Parker is the choice if they want someone who can help them win now. But I think the spot is still Wiggins' to lose. He's not the most NBA-ready, and he doesn't have the size or appeal of Embiid. But he has the highest upside of any of the Bucks and could be a monster on the floor next to Giannis Antetokounmpo.
2Jabari ParkerPhiladelphia 76ers (19 - 63)COLLEGE: DukeHT: 6-8WT: 241POS: SF
Odds of winning lottery: 19.9 percent
Analysis: Ownership deemed this season a success after finishing with the second-worst record in the league. That should be all you need to know about whether they were really tanking. If they end up with the No. 2 overall pick, forgive them for being a little bummed if Wiggins is off the board. However, Parker would be a nice consolation prize. He'd give the Sixers a guy who could score 20 points a night right out of the gate. And the Sixers have the length and athleticism to protect Parker on defense with Michael Carter-Williams in the backcourt and Nerlens Noel in the middle. Embiid is a dark horse here, though. He's not a perfect fit up front with Noel -- they are different players, and both are pretty raw -- but it would be an intriguing teaming nonetheless.
3Dante ExumOrlando Magic (23 - 59)COLLEGE: AustraliaHT: 6-6WT: 188POS: PG
Odds of winning lottery: 15.6 percent
Analysis: The Magic will surely be tempted with Embiid on the board, but they really need a point guard, and there are many scouts who believe Exum might be the best prospect in the draft. We will never know for sure because Exum hasn't and won't be able to play against the other top talents in the draft. But his size, quickness, basketball IQ and ability to play both the one and the two should make him an excellent fit in the backcourt next to Victor Oladipo.
4Joel EmbiidUtah Jazz (25 - 57)COLLEGE: KansasHT: 7-0WT: 250POS: C
Odds of winning lottery: 10.4 percent
Analysis: Jazz fans want Parker in the worst way, but their team likely will have to win one of the top two spots in the lottery to get their hands on him. With the players left on the board, the Jazz face a quandry. They can go with the guy with the most upside (Embiid), or they can go with a player who can help them right away (Julius Randle). Assuming Embiid is healthy, I think he's the pick here. Pairing him on the floor every night with Derrick Favors would give the Jazz an unbelievable defensive front line. Landing him also might free up the team to explore Enes Kanter trades over the summer. While the Jazz love Kanter, if they have to pay big dollars to Gordon Hayward this summer in free agency, they might not be able to afford to pay him what he wants next summer.
5Aaron GordonBoston Celtics (25 - 57)COLLEGE: ArizonaHT: 6-8WT: 210POS: PF
Odds of winning lottery: 10.3 percent
Analysis: The Celtics could go a lot of different ways here, but most of those ways duplicate something they already have. The team would love to get their hands on Embiid, as he would help them with one of their biggest needs. But Gordon is intriguing here. He's a hybrid forward, but his athleticism and motor allow him to thrive at both the three and the four defensively. He adds toughness and does all the little things coaches love. I think he'd be a great fit on this Celtics squad.
6Julius RandleLos Angeles Lakers (27 - 55)COLLEGE: KentuckyHT: 6-9WT: 225POS: PF
Odds of winning lottery: 6.3 percent
Analysis: The Lakers have been eyeing Dante Exum and would be thrilled if he fell here. If he doesn't, they will have a tough decision to make here between Randle and Noah Vonleh. Vonleh might be a better fit in Mike D'Antonio's system. His Chris Bosh-like ability to spread the floor fits well with D'Antoni's preference for bigs who can shoot. But he's raw and probably not ready right now, whereas Randle is ready to come in and be a beast from day one. With the Lakers' entire front line heading into free agency this summer (including Pau Gasol, Chris Kaman and Jordan Hill), the Lakers are going to have a lot of needs up front.
7Marcus SmartSacramento Kings (28 - 54)COLLEGE: Oklahoma StateHT: 6-4WT: 225POS: PG
Odds of winning lottery: 4.3 percent
Analysis: The Kings would ideally love a shot-blocker here, but after Embiid, the pickings are pretty slim this year. They also could use a big point guard. Isaiah Thomas was terrific for the Kings this year, but Smart's size, toughness and leadership at the position are all major upgrades. This team desperately needs team players who care first and foremost about winning. I can't think of a better fit for Smart than the Kings. Mike Malone will love him immediately.
8Noah VonlehDetroit Pistons (29 - 53)COLLEGE: IndianaHT: 6-10WT: 240POS: PF
Odds of winning lottery: 2.8 percent
Analysis: This Pistons are another team up in the air as far as management goes. It's unclear exactly what they are going to do now that Joe Dumars has left. Yes, the Pistons are strong up front, but I think Vonleh makes sense for three reasons. One, Greg Monroe is a restricted free agent, and given the Pistons' salary structure going forward, they might not want to pay him. Two, the Pistons really need a big man who can stretch the floor. Josh Smith thinks he's that guy, but his 26 percent shooting from 3-point range this season tells a different story. Lastly, Vonleh is, in my opinion, clearly the best player left on the board. You take him and figure things out later.
9Doug McDermottCleveland Cavaliers (33 - 49)COLLEGE: CreightonHT: 6-8WT: 210POS: SF
Odds of winning lottery: 1.7 percent
Analysis: If you thought owner Dan Gilbert was impatient last year, wait until this year. It's "Playoff or Bust, Part II," for the Cavs, and you can make sure after last year's draft debacle that the Cavs are going to try to bring in a high-quality player who can contribute right now. McDermott might not be the sexiest prospect in the draft, but he's a four-year senior who can really shoot the basketball. He'll be a great fit in Cleveland, especially if Luol Deng decides to bolt this summer.
10Gary HarrisPhiladelphia 76ers (19 - 63)COLLEGE: Michigan StateHT: 6-4WT: 210POS: SG(pick via New Orleans Pelicans)
Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent
Analysis: If the Sixers can land their forward of the future in Parker, they can turn to adding another piece in the backcourt to play alongside Carter-Williams. The biggest knock on Harris is that he's undersized for his position, but playing next to Carter-Williams, that shouldn't be an issue. Harris is a terrific defender who can guard both backcourt spots. Assuming he reverts back to his freshman-year form, Harris also provides shooting and character on a young team. Put him and Parker on the floor with MCW and Noel and you have a very bright future in Philly.
11Tyler EnnisDenver Nuggets (36 - 46)COLLEGE: SyracuseHT: 6-2WT: 180POS: PG(pick via New York Knicks)
Odds of winning lottery: 0.8 percent
Analysis: With Andre Miller gone, the Nuggets could use a full-time backup for Ty Lawson. Ennis would be a terrific fit. He gives the Nuggets a completely different pace, plays, for the most part, mistake-free basketball and has terrific poise for a player his age.
12Dario SaricOrlando Magic (23 - 59)COLLEGE: CroatiaHT: 6-10WT: 223POS: PF(pick via Denver Nuggets)
Odds of winning lottery: 0.7 percent
Analysis: It looks unlikely that Saric will actually be able to come and play next year in the NBA. His father has been vocal that he doesn't believe Saric is ready, and they have, according to sources, a deal in principle with a team in Europe next year. But Saric's agent says that he's declaring for the draft, and if he decides to stay in, someone will grab him somewhere in the teens much like the Bulls did with Nikola Mirotic in 2011. He's one of the two or three most skilled forwards in the draft and represents great value here if a team is willing to be patient and wait a couple seasons before he comes. The Magic already have a top-3 pick and could afford to wait. The question is whether Saric will be happier going in the late-lottery or whether he'd like to pull out of the draft and try to be a top-10 pick in 2015.
13Nik StauskasMinnesota Timberwolves (40 - 42)COLLEGE: MichiganHT: 6-6WT: 190POS: SG
Odds of winning lottery: 0.6 percent
Analysis: The Wolves' biggest need right now continues to be shooting. Stauskas is one of the true elite shooters in the draft. He has unlimited range, a super-quick release, and as a bonus, he can play point guard in a pinch.
14Zach LaVinePhoenix Suns (48 - 34)COLLEGE: UCLAHT: 6-5WT: 180POS: PG
Odds of winning lottery: 0.5 percent
Analysis: LaVine is a swing-for-the-fences pick. He has the chance to be a home run down the road. He's blessed with both elite athleticism and an awesome jump shot. His body and decision-making skills aren't ready for the NBA yet, but he has tremendous upside for a player drafted this late.
15James YoungAtlanta Hawks (38 - 44)COLLEGE: KentuckyHT: 6-7WT: 200POS: SF
Analysis: The Hawks have been looking for another wing man, and Young has tremendous upside here. If he had shot the ball more consistently as a freshman, he would have been gone six to eight spots higher. Still, scouts are convinced there's nothing wrong with his stroke, and given a little more time, he could be very effective at stretching defenses.
16P.J. HairstonChicago Bulls (48 - 34)COLLEGE: North CarolinaHT: 6-5WT: 220POS: SG(pick via Charlotte Bobcats)
Analysis: The Bulls continue to search for some perimeter shooting. Jimmy Butler shot just 28 percent from 3-point range this season, Tony Snell shot just 32 percent, and Derrick Rose, when he comes back, isn't going to light it up either. Mike Dunleavy made shots, but given his age, he's not a long-term solution. The good news is that Hairston can shoot, play either wing position and already has an NBA body.
17Clint CapelaBoston Celtics (25 - 57)COLLEGE: SwitzerlandHT: 6-11WT: 222POS: PF(pick via Brooklyn Nets)
Analysis: The Celtics could make a long-term move with their second pick. Capela has NBA length and athleticism (think Serge Ibaka), but he's pretty far away from being an NBA player right now. Whether he sticks in Europe for a year or two or comes over now and learns the hard way, getting someone with athletic tools at this point in the draft is worth the gamble.
18Cleanthony EarlyPhoenix Suns (48 - 34)COLLEGE: Wichita StateHT: 6-8WT: 215POS: SF(pick via Washington Wizards)
Analysis: If the Suns swing for the fences with their first pick, I could see them playing it safe with their second pick. Early is the second-oldest player in our mock, but his play at Wichita State this year opened eyes. He's a prototypical NBA small forward with size, athleticism and the ability to shoot the ball and could be a terrific backup for Gerald Green.
19Adreian PayneChicago Bulls (48 - 34)COLLEGE: Michigan StateHT: 6-10WT: 225POS: PF
Analysis: As I said before, the Bulls need shooting, and this pick is about that as well. Payne is one of the few stretch 4s in the draft. He has the size and strength to play in the interior, but shot a very impressive 42 percent from beyond the arc this year. His upside might be limited, but on a team that will try to compete for a title next year, Payne could be an excellent fit.
20Jerami GrantToronto Raptors (48 - 34)COLLEGE: SyracuseHT: 6-8WT: 203POS: SF
Analysis: Grant is another upside pick. Blessed with elite length and athletic ability and a motor that always keeps him in plays, Grant was a jump shot away from being a lottery pick. The Raptors could use the help behind DeMar DeRozan at the 3.
21Jusuf NurkicOklahoma City Thunder (59 - 23)COLLEGE: BosniaHT: 6-11WT: 280POS: C(pick via Dallas Mavericks)
Analysis: Nurkic has NBA size and soft hands to play the center position, and let's face it, in a draft devoid of bigs, that's a commodity. His lack of elite athleticism and some conditioning issues probably keep him from going higher, but this is a nice draft-and-stash candidate for the Thunder.
22K.J. McDanielsMemphis Grizzlies (50 - 32)COLLEGE: ClemsonHT: 6-6WT: 200POS: SF
Analysis: McDaniels brings crazy athleticism, defense and a good motor to the table. Several GMs feel he's one of the more underrated players in the draft. Like Grant, his lack of a real jump shot keeps him from going higher, but the defensive toughness he brings to the table should really help the Grizzlies.
23Elfrid PaytonUtah Jazz (25 - 57)COLLEGE: Louisiana LafayetteHT: 6-3WT: 170POS: PG(pick via Golden State Warriors)
Analysis: The Jazz drafted a pretty small point guard in Trey Burke last year. Now they add a player who has size and length and the explosive athletic ability that Burke lacks to back him up. Payton isn't a great shooter and needs to add strength, but he's my sleeper of the draft and a great get for the Jazz at No. 23.
24T.J. WarrenCharlotte Bobcats (43 - 39)COLLEGE: NC StateHT: 6-8WT: 233POS: SF(pick via Portland Trail Blazers)
Analysis: The Bobcats rely an awful lot on Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker to do the bulk of their scoring. As such, they ranked 24th in the league in offensive efficiency. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Josh McRoberts and to a lesser extent, Gerald Henderson, just aren't great at putting the ball in the basket. Enter Warren, one of the best scorers in college basketball. While he lacks elite athletic ability and isn't really a shooter, Warren has a scorer's mentality and should be able to get some badly needed buckets for the Bobcats.
25Rodney HoodHouston Rockets (54 - 28)COLLEGE: DukeHT: 6-8WT: 180POS: SG
Analysis: This is a steal for the Rockets if Hood lasts this long. He has both size and the ability to shoot the ball from his position. At times he can be one-dimensional, but at No. 25, and on a team like the Rockets, all they'll ask him to do is shoot the ball.
26Kyle AndersonMiami Heat (54 - 28)COLLEGE: UCLAHT: 6-9WT: 235POS: PF
Analysis: Anderson is the hardest player to place in this mock. Teams tend to either love him or hate him. He has a very unique skill set for a player his size as a point power forward and is best when the ball is in his hands. I think he's a great fit for the Heat because he's unselfish, makes others around him better and has drastically improved his jump shot this year. Just don't expect him to defend anyone.
27Mario HezonjaPhoenix Suns (48 - 34)COLLEGE: CroatiaHT: 6-7WT: 200POS: SF(pick via Indiana Pacers)
Analysis: It's unclear whether Hezonja will even be in the draft. He's a terrific prospect who is sliding because he just doesn't get significant minutes right now in Europe. If he stays in the draft, someone will try to steal him in the first round. And with three first-round picks, the Suns are in prime position to do it.
28Shabazz NapierLos Angeles Clippers (57 - 25)COLLEGE: ConnecticutHT: 6-0WT: 170POS: PG
Analysis: Darren Collison has been great as Chris Paul's backup this year, but given the pittance he's making in L.A., it's likely he's going to opt out and try to find a more lucrative deal elsewhere. Enter Napier. He's coming off an NCAA championship, can be a terrific defender and can hit big shots. It would be great for him to mentor under Paul and Doc Rivers. I think this would be a good fit for both team and player.
29C.J. WilcoxOklahoma City Thunder (59 - 23)COLLEGE: WashingtonHT: 6-5WT: 180POS: SG
Analysis: The Thunder could always use more shooting, and Wilcox is another lights-out shooter. He has the size and athleticism to play the 2, but his age causes him to fall. I think this would be a nice late pickup for the Thunder.
30Jarnell StokesSan Antonio Spurs (62 - 20)COLLEGE: TennesseeHT: 6-8WT: 250POS: PF
Analyisis: Stokes might be undersized, but he's a great rebounder and has the strength to create space. The Spurs have found places for players such as him in the past. And don't forget, though he might be a junior, he's still just 20 years old.
*The Pistons must send their first-round pick to Charlotte if, because of the lottery order, it falls below No. 8.
*The Pelicans must send their first-round pick to Philadelphia if they don't win one of the top three spots in the lottery.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
첫댓글 항상 감사히 잘 읽고 있지만 이번 목드래프트는 해럴과 컬리-스타인이 빠진 뒤 나온 첫 목이라 더 보고 싶었습니다. 감사합니다 ㅎ 채드 포드는 클리앤써니 얼리를 워렌보다 더 높게 평가하는군요. 후드가 폭락했고 헤어스턴이 높게 올라가고.. 좀 혼란스럽네요 -_-; 특히 카펠라는 나이키 훕 서밋에서 실망스러운 모습을 보여주었는데 그 자리에 있었던 포드는 그에 대한 믿음을 쉽게 포기하지 않는 것 같습니다. 그가 비욤보처럼 될지 이바카처럼 될지 모르긴 하지만요..
1라운드 중반부터 후반 사이는 실제 드래프트 때도 순위가 혼전일것 같아요.
맥더밋이랑 스타우스커스가 로터리라니 왠지 의아한 생각도 드네요 ㅎ
카일 앤더슨이 왠지 터질듯한 느낌이 듭니다. 물론 팀도 잘 만나야겠죠.
좋은 정보 감사드립니다.