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Projecting top 10 PFs for 2014-15Anthony Davis leads WARP-based ranking of NBA's best power forwards
Anthony Davis climbs to the top of the PF ranks in 2014-15, according to WARP projections.
작년의 경우, 르브론 제임스가 우리의 파워 포워드 랭킹의 정상 자리에 있었다. 그래서 어찌 보면 풀타임으로 이 포지션을 플레이하는 선수들에게는 불공정한 면이 있었다. 하지만 어쩌겠는가? 제임스는 지난 시즌, 즉 마이애미에서의 마지막 시즌 동안에도 다시 4 번으로 플레이한 때가 아닐 때보다 많았었다.
하지만 다시 클리블랜드로 돌아간 지금 제임스는 몸을 슬림하게 만들며 다시 캐벌리어스의 스몰 포워드로서 본인의 옛 직위를 되찾을 태세를 보이고 있다. 따라서 우리는 올해의 랭킹에서 그를 다시 3번으로 옮겼고, 이렇게 되어 진짜 파워 포워드들에게 공간이 열리게 됐다. 그리고 저 진짜 파워 포워드들 중 한 명은 얼마 안 있어 리그 정상 자리에 있는 제임스의 패권에 도전할 듯 하고 또 다른 한 명은 제임스가 또 한 번의 우승 트로피를 들도록 도우려 할 것이다.
아래는 우리가 WARP 전망치에 따라 매긴 포지션 별 랭킹 연재물로, 이번에는 2014-15 NBA 시즌에 대한 탑 10 전망치를 가진 파워 포워드들이다. (이 측정법에 대한 설명은 페이지의 맨 아래에서 볼 수 있다.)
1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans Projected 2014-15 WARP: 14.3 | Win%: 66 percent
한편 우리가 새로운 방법론을 통해 계산한 전망치에서 데이비스가 정상을 차지하긴 했지만, 이 시스템은 또한 실질 플러스-마이너스 (RPM) 가치때문에 그에게 타격이 되기도 한다. 비록 양수이긴 하지만 데이비스의 임팩트는 본인의 생산성이 말해주는 것만큼에 비해 팀동료들을 밀어주는 힘은 그리 썩 크지 못하다고 말해주기 때문이다. 그래도 걱정은 말라. 그의 게임에 있어 저런 부문은 다음 차례가 될 것이고, 그렇게 되면 많은 MVP 투표가 따르게 될 것이다.
2. Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers Projected 2014-15 WARP: 14.2 | Win%: 69 percent
3. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers Projected 2014-15 WARP: 13.3 | Win%: 65 percent
4. Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.3 | Win%: 61 percent
5. Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.8 | Win%: 59 percent
6. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.7 | Win%: 58 percent
7. Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia 76ers Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.8 | Win%: 58 percent
8. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.6 | Win%: 57 percent
9. Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.4 | Win%: 57 percent
10. Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.3 | Win%: 57 percent
Next five: Dirk Nowitzki, Ryan Anderson, Derrick Favors, Tim Duncan, Terrence Jones
자 진정하시고, 노비츠키와 던컨은 둘이 합쳐 76 세다. 이들의 플레이 수준은 엘리트에서 떨어져 본 적이 없지만 결국 이들의 전망치를 내려 끄는 것이 연령 곡선이다. 이들은 나이가 많다. 그리고 좋은 선수들이다. 그러니 이 둘 중에 한 명은 정말 탑 10 밖의 결과를 낼 것이라 내기를 하러 라스베이거스까지 갈 필요는 없다.
Also notable: Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, David West, Zach Randolph, David Lee, Kevin Garnett
랭킹의 방법론
해마다 이뤄지는 오프시즌 포지션 랭킹은 다가 오는 시즌의 퍼포먼스에 대한 질적 양적 전망치를 뽑아 포지션 별로 리그 상위 선수들에 대한 스냅샷을 제공해 준다. 선수들은 WARP(wins above replacement player)로 랭크되며, WARP란 NBA 밖에서 언제라도 쉽게 끌어다 쓸 수 있는 재능에게서 기대할 법한 수준에 비해 한 선수가 팀의 성적 결산에 얼마나 많은 승리 수를 더해 주는지를 측정한 값이다. 선수들은 플로어 공수 양 진영에서 유시지와 효율성에 관해 측정을 받으며, 여기에서 나오는 레이팅들이 결합되어 나온 값이 개인 승률이다. 여기에서 나온 그 선수의 승률과 다가오는 시즌 플레잉 타임 예상치를 통해 WARP가 계산된다. 플레잉 타임 예상치는 최근 시즌들과 건강 그리고 현 소속 팀에서 그 선수의 역할에 근거해 뽑은 것이다. 선수들이 배정받은 포지션은 그들의 가장 최근 NBA 시즌에서 가장 자주 모습을 보였던 포지션에 따라 배정된다. 다만 몇몇 선수들의 경우엔 2014-15 시즌에 예상되는 쓰임새에 근거를 둬 주관적인 수정을 가했다.
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Last year, LeBron James topped our power forward rankings, which in a way was unfair to the guys who play the position on a full-time basis. But what are you going to do? James played the 4 more often than not again last season, his final in Miami.
But now that he's going back to Cleveland, James has slimmed down and appears poised to reclaim his old job as small forward of the Cavaliers. So we shifted him back to the 3 for this year's rankings, which opens up the field for the real power forwards, one of whom might challenge James' supremacy atop the league very soon and another who will be trying to help James hoist another title trophy.
Below we continue our NBA positional ranking according to forecast WARP, with the projected top 10 power forwards for the 2014-15 NBA season. (An explanation of the statistic can be found at the bottom of the page.)
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 14.3 | Win%: 66 percent
Davis has already blossomed into the kind of player the Pelicans hoped he'd be when they won the 2013 draft lottery and, at 21, he can still get much better. Davis' offensive game exploded last season as he put up the usage rate of a high-scoring wing and the true shooting percentage of a solid, close-to-the-basket big man. Add it all up and Davis' 15.1 WARP ranked fifth in the league. The other players to hit that WARP before reaching age 22: Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal and Tracy McGrady.
While Davis claims the top projection by our new methodology, this system does hurt him a bit because his real plus-minus (RPM) values, while positive, suggest his impact doesn't quite boost his teammates as much as his production suggests it should. Don't worry, that part of his game will come next, along with a lot of MVP votes.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 14.2 | Win%: 69 percent
Love's 20.2 WARP ranked third in the league behind James and Kevin Durant in 2013-14. The new methodology used for ranking purposes generates WARP scores a bit lower at the top end of the scale, but even though it's RPM-based that doesn't mean Love is penalized by an inability to impact a team's bottom line. His plus-6.4 RPM was elite, and he was positive on both ends of the floor. There are a lot of reasons Minnesota never made the playoffs with Love, but he was in no way one of those reasons.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 13.3 | Win%: 65 percent
In many respects, including both statistically and stylistically, Griffin has evolved little as a professional player. Which is mostly fine, as his 37.2 WARP over the past three seasons puts him ahead of 98.5 percent of all NBA players. Griffin's one weakness is his performance has generally dropped off in the playoffs. Not much, but a little. For L.A. to eventually break loose on a title run, Griffin needs to explode when he's needed most. When Chris Paul was out last season, Griffin raised his level of play, especially as a playmaker, so it's good to know he has more in reserve if it's needed.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.3 | Win%: 61 percent
Millsap was just as good last season in Atlanta as he was the season prior in Utah, which is plenty good, but for whatever reason he seemed to garner more attention after moving to Atlanta. His offensive arsenal evolved in Mike Budenholzer's system, as Millsap turned many of his midrange shots into 3-point attempts, which he converted at right about the league average. His usage rate jumped by 3.4 percent, which is why his true shooting percentage was stagnant despite the improved shot selection. Hopefully Millsap can ratchet up the efficiency with Al Horford back in the lineup. Even if he doesn't, Millsap is an extremely valuable two-way player.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.8 | Win%: 59 percent
Smith has enough of a track record that his 1.6 WARP disaster from last season doesn't wreck his forecast going forward. He's still just 28, and healthy, so there is little reason he can't return to his days as a double-digit WARP performer -- if used correctly. That means putting a stop to habits like finishing 17 percent of his possessions with 3-point attempts, even though he made just 26 percent of them. One thing saving Smith's outlook is his RPM profile; it actually was positive on the offensive end and was again well in the black on defense. Stan Van Gundy will figure this out.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.7 | Win%: 58 percent
Aldridge has had better seasons, but few seem to realize it after his volume shot up in the 2013-14 regular season and he left us with some breathtaking performances in the playoffs. He has to be careful, as his 30 percent usage rate is high for a big man, and his .507 true shooting percentage doesn't justify it. Not that it's that cut and dry. His offensive RPM was plus-2.6, and with his offensive arsenal focused on all those baseline face-ups, his turnover rate was very low. As long as Aldridge is impacting the team in a positive way, who's to complain?
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.8 | Win%: 58 percent
If the rumored trade does finally go down, you can see that in going from Love to Young, Minnesota would be losing about six wins of value from its starting power forward position. Young turned into a do-it-all performer toward the end of the Sixers' horrid 2013-14 season after Evan Turner was traded, showing heretofore unseen passing skills and using more possessions than ever. However, that's not his game on a good team.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.6 | Win%: 57 percent
This ranking seems low for Ibaka, who has put up 9.6 or more WARP in three straight seasons, and is still at an age (24) when his numbers should be expected to improve. The disconnect is a product of RPM, where he was plus-0.4 on the offensive end -- the first positive season of his career -- while his defensive RPM slipped from plus-3.5 to plus-1.9. The hidden narrative is that it seems like the more Ibaka tries to do, the less he helps his team. That's a trend worth watching.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.4 | Win%: 57 percent
With Faried eligible for an extension, there has been some debate about just how valuable his style of play actually is. There are legitimate reasons for the concern. He's turned into a high-volume offensive performer, and his percentages mostly justify that approach. He's good off the offensive glass and gets to the foul line, keeping his offensive RPM positive. However, his defensive profile is disappointing, and last season his RPM on that end sank to minus-1.6. The bottom line is that while Faried's style of play has evolved considerably over three seasons, his overall value has been stagnant.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.3 | Win%: 57 percent
Johnson is among the players benefiting the most by our reliance on RPM in the new ranking methodology. Johnson's 3.7 WARP last season was nothing special, but he was getting 29 minutes per game on a Raptors team enjoying its best season, so he must have been doing something right. Indeed, his plus-6.1 RPM was outstanding, and he split that up on both ends of the floor. In fact, he's been plus-3.2 or better on defense for three seasons running. He fits in well with Toronto's collection of underappreciated standouts.
Next five: Dirk Nowitzki, Ryan Anderson, Derrick Favors, Tim Duncan, Terrence Jones
Come on now, Nowitzki and Duncan are a combined 76 years old. The aging curves are what drags down their projections, though their level of play has never fallen off from elite. They're old, they're good and you shouldn't head to Vegas to wager that either one will indeed finish out of the top 10.
Also notable: Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, David West, Zach Randolph, David Lee, Kevin Garnett
Some big names are projected to succumb to the ravages of age, and all have already shown signs of slippage. Mirotic, on the other hand, is just getting started and projects better than any other rookie to make an immediate impact.
첫댓글 그리핀 이번시즌에 확실히 보여주자.. AD 더 성장하기전에 해먹을거 더 해먹어야지..
다가올 시즌의 전망이라 잠재능력을 높이 평가한듯 하군요...그래도 러브는 트레이드 된다면 스탯하락가능성이 클것인대..
ㅋㅋㅋ조쉬가 알드리지보다?ㅋㅋㅋ이것 참 디트팬으로써 좋아해얄지 말아얄지 모르겠네요
뜻밖의 조쉬..
알드리지랑 이바카는 좀 더 올라가고 조쉬는 내려와야 겠네요..
AD가 PF였구나.. C줄 알았는데..