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Projecting top 10 centers in 2014-15Is the NBA witnessing a generational changing of the guard in the paint?
With new coach Stan Van Gundy, Andre Drummond is poised to take off.
한때 넘버 원 센터 자리는 드와이트 하워드의 독차지였었지만, 이제 상황이 바뀌고 있다. 코트의 중앙에서 여전히 하워드가 누구에게도 밀리지 않긴 하지만, 퍼스트 팀 All-NBA 센터 조아킴 노아에게 도전을 받고 있을 뿐더러, 몇몇 팀들에 있는 다이나믹한 젊은 선수들도 스리슬쩍 전환의 국면을 만들고 있다.
아래는 우리가 WARP 전망치에 따라 매긴 포지션 별 랭킹 연재물로, 이번에는 2014-15 NBA 시즌에 대한 탑 10 전망치를 가진 센터들이다. (이 측정법에 대한 설명은 페이지의 맨 아래에서 볼 수 있다.)
1. Andre Drummond, Detroit PistonsProjected 2014-15 WARP: 11.5 | Win%: 64 percent
2. DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento KingsProjected 2014-15 WARP: 11.2 | Win%: 63 percent
3. Dwight Howard, Houston RocketsProjected 2014-15 WARP: 10.1 | Win%: 60 percent
4. Joakim Noah, Chicago BullsProjected 2014-15 WARP: 10.0 | Win%: 60 percent
5. Greg Monroe, Detroit PistonsProjected 2014-15 WARP: 9.5 | Win%: 60 percent
6. DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles ClippersProjected 2014-15 WARP: 9.0 | Win%: 58 percent
7. Marc Gasol, Memphis GrizzliesProjected 2014-15 WARP: 7.6 | Win%: 56 percent
8. Al Jefferson, Charlotte HornetsProjected 2014-15 WARP: 7.2 | Win%: 54 percent
9. Roy Hibbert, Indiana PacersProjected 2014-15 WARP: 6.9 | Win%: 56 percent
10. Al Horford, Atlanta HawksProjected 2014-15 WARP: 5.9 | Win%: 56 percent
Next five -- Chris Bosh, Nikola Vucevic, Anderson Varejao, Robin Lopez, Marcin Gortat
바쉬가 자신의 게임을 르브론 주도의 우승 사냥을 위해 기꺼이 하위 변수로 놓았던 일은 한없이 존경스러운 일인 한편, 여름에 걸쳐 팀들이 그에게 맥스 오퍼를 던졌던 것을 보면 확실히 리그의 의사결정자들이 여전히 엘리트 생산성이 있다고 생각하는 듯 하다. 그래서 이제 제임스가 떠난 상황에서, 곧 우리는 그 엘리트 생산성이 충분히 남아 있는지를 알게 될 것이다.
Also notable -- Omer Asik, Brook Lopez, Nikola Pekovic
랭킹의 방법론
해마다 이뤄지는 오프시즌 포지션 랭킹은 다가 오는 시즌의 퍼포먼스에 대한 질적 양적 전망치를 뽑아 포지션 별로 리그 상위 선수들에 대한 스냅샷을 제공해 준다. 선수들은 WARP(wins above replacement player)로 랭크되며, WARP란 NBA 밖에서 언제라도 쉽게 끌어다 쓸 수 있는 재능에게서 기대할 법한 수준에 비해 한 선수가 팀의 성적 결산에 얼마나 많은 승리 수를 더해 주는지를 측정한 값이다. 선수들은 플로어 공수 양 진영에서 유시지와 효율성에 관해 측정을 받으며, 여기에서 나오는 레이팅들이 결합되어 나온 값이 개인 승률이다. 여기에서 나온 그 선수의 승률과 다가오는 시즌 플레잉 타임 예상치를 통해 WARP가 계산된다. 플레잉 타임 예상치는 최근 시즌들과 건강 그리고 현 소속 팀에서 그 선수의 역할에 근거해 뽑은 것이다. 선수들이 배정받은 포지션은 그들의 가장 최근 NBA 시즌에서 가장 자주 모습을 보였던 포지션에 따라 배정된다. 다만 몇몇 선수들의 경우엔 2014-15 시즌에 예상되는 쓰임새에 근거를 둬 주관적인 수정을 가했다.
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원문은 아래 더보기 클릭
The No. 1 center spot was once Dwight Howard's exclusive domain, but things are changing. Howard is still as good as anyone in the middle, but he's being challenged by not only first-team All-NBA center Joakim Noah, but by dynamic young players on teams that are, to put it kindly, in transitional phases.
Defensive mobility is an essential trait for today's big men, or else they can be schemed right off the court. But however you value the contributions of today's centers, rim protection remains as important as ever and ensures that the NBA isn't going retire the position anytime soon.
Below we continue our NBA positional ranking according to forecast WARP, with the projected top 10 centers for the 2014-15 NBA season. (An explanation of the statistic can be found at the bottom of the page.)
Last year's center rankings are here.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 11.5 | Win%: 64 percent
Drummond might be the league's best rebounder, and his ability to dunk everything keeps his offensive efficiency high. His 13.8 WARP last season ranked 11th in the league, and he ended the season still too young to legally purchase a six pack of beer. Yet Drummond can be so much better. First, he's carving out a special place for himself among the pantheon of the NBA's worst free throw shooters. And his defensive real plus-minus (RPM) was break-even despite his shot-blocking and off-the-charts rebounding. Hopefully Stan Van Gundy can harness Drummond's immense energy and channel it in a positive direction.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 11.2 | Win%: 63 percent
Cousins is just beginning what promises to be a long run as one of the league's best big men. His 2013-14 WARP (13.6) ranked 13th in the NBA and was six wins better than the season before. Everything was better, including career bests in usage rate and true shooting percentage, and improved rates in assists, rebounds and blocks. He put up more foul shots, but had fewer fouls and turnovers. His defensive RPM climbed to plus-2.4. However, he was minus-0.5 on offense and rates below average as a whole in the NBA, so his production is still coming somewhat in a vacuum. Now that he's got his own game where it needs to be, Cousins can focus on boosting the level of his teammates.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.1 | Win%: 60 percent
Few would doubt Howard's status as an elite player, and he enjoyed a solid 10-WARP season during his first season with the Rockets. Yet it seems the MVP-level Howard of Orlando vintage is gone for good. Sure, 10 WARP was a slight improvement over his season with the Lakers, and it put him in the 96th percentile leaguewide, but it's less than half what he put up during his best season with the Magic. His defensive impact (plus-4.7 RPM) is still considerable. But his offensive RPM has been negative for two years running. If Houston can figure out why that's happening, look out.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.0 | Win%: 60 percent
Last year, Noah was rewarded for his best professional season by being named the defensive player of the year and earning first-team All-NBA honors. For a player lauded for his intangibles, his tangibles were awfully impressive. Noah's 14.0 WARP ranked 10th in the league, as he established career bests in usage, assist rate and defensive rebound rate. Chicago ran much of its offense though Noah, perhaps the NBA's best passing big man, and he became a nightly threat for a triple-double. It will be fascinating to see how this fully mature version of Noah meshes with Derrick Rose.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.5 | Win%: 60 percent
Like Josh Smith, Monroe's game faltered from ill-conceived schemes, and it was easily the worst season of his career. Monroe is effective as both a scorer and a passer with the ball in his hands, but that just didn't happen often enough a season ago. Assuming he returns to the Pistons one way or another, he's another player you hope Van Gundy will get back on track. His RPMs, by the way, remained positive, and he's been better than break-even on both ends of the floor in every season of his career.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.0 | Win%: 58 percent
When you draft a big-man project at the top of the lottery and he doesn't pan out, it's a major setback for a franchise. When you draft one in the second round and he turns out to be DeAndre Jordan, you've put your team on the elite track. Jordan posted 12.0 WARP in 2013-14 despite being as low usage as ever. His value stays high because of his elite rate of finishing: 67.7 percent in 2013-14. His rebounding is what really exploded, as Jordan grabbed 29.3 percent of opponent misses, by far a career best. His RPM on the defensive end was an outstanding plus-3.0, but he was positive on the offensive end as well.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.6 | Win%: 56 percent
Gasol missed 23 games last season, but he wasn't as good even when he did get on the floor. His defensive impact was intact; Gasol's RPM on that end was plus-5.0. On offense, however, his true shooting percentage fell below league average, even as he used more possessions than ever. Gasol's shooting percentages have always been up and down, so there is hope for a rebound. Memphis will likely need him to maintain a similar level of usage, as Zach Randolph is not getting any younger.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.2 | Win%: 54 percent
Jefferson's production last season wasn't the best of his career, but it was representative of the higher end of his personal spectrum. He had his best rebounding season in years and became the focal point of the Hornets' attack. Jefferson's offensive RPM was plus-1.3, which understates just how valuable it was for Steve Clifford to have him as an offensive starting point. Jefferson's defensive RPM was neutral, but he was the starting center on a very good defensive team.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.9 | Win%: 56 percent
Has any player had more of an up-and-down season that Hibbert's 2013-14 campaign? In the postseason, the extremes continued, as he alternated between breakout performances and virtual nonexistence. The statistical bottom line is that Hibbert's WARP (2.4) was his lowest since his rookie season. His overall rebound rate of 12.4 percent was a career nadir and was downright pitiful for a 7-foot-2 starting center. His 2-point field goal percentage (.439) was his worst yet. Hibbert's defensive impact was still there, but for the first time, Pacers fans had to wonder if it was worth it.
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 5.9 | Win%: 56 percent
Who's to say the Hawks didn't make an impact acquisition this summer? If Horford, who has played 11, 74 and 29 games the last three years, respectively, returns to health, Atlanta could be poised for a major surge in the East standings. Horford's winning percentage in his limited time a season ago was a career low, so you do have to be concerned whether all the injuries have taken their toll.
Next five -- Chris Bosh, Nikola Vucevic, Anderson Varejao, Robin Lopez, Marcin Gortat
Bosh's willingness to subsume his game in service of LeBron-led title runs is endlessly admirable, and with teams throwing max offers his way over the summer, it's obvious that league decision-makers still think there's elite production there. With James gone, we'll find out soon enough.
Also notable -- Omer Asik, Brook Lopez, Nikola Pekovic
If Lopez's playing-time forecast wasn't kneecapped by his injury issues, his projected winning percentage would have been good enough to get him in the top 10. Let's not forget two things: His winning percentage (.648) was a career best before he was injured, but at the same time, the Nets got a lot better after he was hurt.
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첫댓글 디조던이 ㅋㅋㅋ
디조던은 어디어 예상해도5,6위 나올걸요ㅎ
귀중한 자료 감사드립니다.
이스픈에 따르면 디트는 플옵진출은 일도 아닐듯
서조던 동맥기로 불리던 시절은 어디로...
ESPN 이번 포지션별 랭킹은 개인적으론 동의하기 힘든 순위네요;;
대부분 지난시즌의 임팩트보다는 다가올시즌의 기대치반영이 더큰것같네요 특히 디트쪽 순위를봤을때 SVG에대한기대가큰것같습니다
철저히 수치 기반인거 같은데요.
SVG에 대한 기대같은건 반영안되어 있을겁니다
WARP에 따르면... 디트가 드루먼트, 먼로, 조쉬... 이 셋만으로도 30승은 넘기겠군요... ㅋㅋㅋ
올시즌 동부 플옵 커트라인이 37승으로 예상되던데.... 어찌되련지...
하워드가3위군...
바....발렌슈나스는....
이... 내가... below the average?? ;;;
이거 디트팬이 작성한 것도 아니고ㅋ드루먼드가 쩌는 포텐을 보여줬대도 1위라니ㅋ