얼음이 녹으면서 북극 지름길이 해운사를 손짓하다

[이브]

Arctic Shortcut Beckons Shippers as Ice Thaws

Beluga Group

A German ship, following a Russian icebreaker, is about to complete a shipment from Asia to Europe via Arctic waters.

러셔 쇄빙선을 따라 독일 선박이 북극 수역을 경유하여 에이셔에서 유어럽으로 운송을 마칠 예정이다.

By ANDREW E. KRAMER and ANDREW C. REVKIN

Published: September 10, 2009

 

MOSCOW — For hundreds of years, mariners have dreamed of an Arctic shortcut that would allow them to speed trade between Asia and the West. Two German ships are poised to complete that transit for the first time, aided by the retreat of Arctic ice that scientists have linked to global warming.

마스카우 - 船員들은 수백 년 동안, 에이셔와 서방세계 간의 빠른 무역을 할 수 있게 할 북극 지름길을 꿈꾸어 왔다. 과학자들이 지구온난화에 관련시키는 북극 얼음의 후퇴에 도움을 받아 처음으로, 두 독일 선박들이 그런 통행을 마칠 態勢이다.

 

 

The Big Melt

More articles by Andrew C. Revkin on the effects of warming on the environment, and scientists' assessments of the inevitability of Arctic melting.

Video

Video reports from the Arctic, where climate change is affecting fishing, native populations and access for the oil and gas industry.

북극으로부터의 비디오 보고, 그곳 기후변화는 어업, 토착인들 그리고 오일과 개스 산업 접근에 영향을 미치고 있다.

 

Multimedia

Map

A Shortcut Across the Top of the World

 

 

The ships started their voyage in South Korea in late July and will begin the last leg of the trip this week, leaving a Siberian port for Rotterdam in the Netherlands carrying 3,500 tons of construction materials.

Russian ships have long moved goods along the country’s sprawling Arctic coastline. And two tankers, one Finnish and the other Latvian, hauled fuel between Russian ports using the route, which is variously called the Northern Sea Route or the Northeast Passage.

그 선박들은 건설 자재 3,500톤을 싣고, 7월 하순에 한국에서 항해를 시작하여 금주에 사이비어리어 항을 떠나 네덜런드 롯테르담을 향해 그 여행의 마지막 구간(항해)을 시작하고 있다.

러셔 선박들은 북극 해안선을 따라 오랜 동안 물자를 운반했다. 그리고 두 탱커(핀랜드 1, 라트비아 1)가 그 루트를 통해 러셔 항구들 간에 연료를 운반했는데, 그 루트는 북극해 루트 혹은 북동 항로 등으로 다양하게 불러 왔다.

But the Russians hope that the transit of the German ships will inaugurate the passage as a reliable shipping route, and that the combination of the melting ice and the economic benefits of the shortcut — it is thousands of miles shorter than various southerly routes — will eventually make the Arctic passage a summer competitor with the Suez Canal.

그러나 이번 독일 선박의 통과로 믿을 만한 해운 노선으로서의 항로를 시작되고, 그리고 (북극의) 얼음이 녹고 지름길의 경제적 이득 - 여러 가지 남쪽 노선보다 수천 마일 더 짧다 - 이 복합되어 결국 북극 통로가 수에즈 운하와 여름 경쟁 노선이 될 것을, 러셔인들은 희망한다.

“It is global warming that enables us to think about using that route,” Verena Beckhusen, a spokeswoman for the shipping company, the Beluga Group of Bremen, Germany, said in a telephone interview.

Lawson W. Brigham, a professor of geography at the University of Fairbanks who led the writing of an international report on Arctic commerce, the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment, confirmed that the passage of the two German ships appeared to be the first true commercial transit of the entire Northeast Passage from Asia to the West.

“우리가 그 루트를 생각하게 한 것은 지구온난화이다,”라고 독일 브레멘의 벨루가 그룹 해운사 대변인인 베레나 벡후센이 전화 인터뷰에서 말했다.

북극 商用에 대해 국제 보고서, 북극해운평가서 작성을 이끈 페어뱅크 대학 지리학 교수인 로슨 브리그햄은, 독일 선박 2척의 통과(통행)는 에이셔에서 서방세계까지 全북동부 항로의 최초의 진짜 상업적 통행이 될 것으로 보인다고 확인했다.

He credited Beluga for taking on both the summertime Arctic waters, which still pose threats despite the recent sea-ice retreats, and Russian red tape, a maze of permits and regulations.

“This may be as much of a test run for the bureaucracy as for the ice,” said Dr. Brigham, an oceanographer who is a former Coast Guard icebreaker captain.

But he also said it would be a long while before Arctic shipping routes took business from the Suez or Panama Canal.

Company officials said the unloading in Siberia of 44 components for a Russian power plant should be completed by Saturday, after which the ships will head to Rotterdam to deliver the rest of the cargo.

Sheets of pack ice still descend in hundred-mile-long tongues off the northern ice cap, and glaciers on the archipelagos off the coast shed icebergs that now drift more dangerously in the otherwise ice-free summer seas. But the route is rarely wholly impassable these days, according to the Russian Transport Ministry.

The pair of ice-hardened, 12,700-ton ships, the Beluga Fraternity and Beluga Foresight, were accompanied for most of the trip so far by one or two Russian nuclear icebreakers as a precaution, although they encountered only scattered small floes. At the most perilous leg of the journey, the passage around the northernmost tip of Siberia, the Vilkitsky Strait, ice covered about half the sea.

“Apart from the stress, it is an economically and ecologically beneficial shortcut between Europe and Asia,” Valery Durov, captain of the Beluga Foresight, wrote in response to e-mailed questions about the treacherous stretch. “In such voyages, the advantage of fewer miles can outweigh delays waiting for clear water.”

In 1553, the British explorer Hugh Willoughby died with his crew while trying to navigate the route in hopes of finding a path from the West to Asia. In the early 1700s, a Danish-born Russian explorer, Vitus Bering, pushed along the coastline on sleds on a journey to Alaska.

It was not until 1914 that a Russian admiral, Boris Vilkitsky, mapped the eponymous strait separating Asia from the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago at the northernmost point of the route, Russian maritime experts say.

Still, the region was often so socked in with ice even in summer as to be impassable, even with nuclear icebreakers as escorts; in 1983, a Russian ship was crushed in an ice floe west of Alaska in the middle of the summer.

As the Arctic has warmed and sea ice in summers has retreated from coasts, countries and companies have become ever more focused on the resources, trade routes and security issues that are surfacing in what was once an ice-locked backwater.

The Northwest Passage, a meandering set of channels through Canada’s Arctic, has been increasingly tested as well, but has not so far become a reliable commercial route, with transit limited mainly to military or research craft.

Though the window for sailing the route north of Russia is only a few weeks a year, it trims days to weeks off trips and saves fuel. For example, the voyage from Yokohama, Japan, to Rotterdam via the Northeast Passage is about 4,450 miles shorter than the currently preferred route through the Suez Canal, according to the Russian Ministry of Transport.

Neils Stolberg, the president of the Beluga Group, said this week that the Arctic transit was not an experiment but the beginning of opening the route to outside traffic. He said his company already had new contracts for taking 1,000 tons of goods from Asia to Siberia next summer.

“We are all very proud and delighted to be the first Western shipping company which has successfully transited the legendary Northeast Passage and delivered the sensitive cargo safely through this extraordinarily demanding sea area,” Mr. Stolberg said in a statement.

The Russian government technically opened the Northeast Passage for international vessels after the breakup of the Soviet Union, but no commercial cargo carriers have until now ventured all the way across.

Nikolai A. Monko, the head of the Northern Sea Route Administration in the Russian Transport Ministry, said the policy now was to promote the route. The ministry, he said, is considering lowering the flat fee charged for icebreaker escort and rescue if needed.

The goal in part is to generate a revenue stream for the country’s six-vessel nuclear icebreaker fleet that escorts convoys through the passage, and to pay for fixed costs like navigation beacons, he said.

The passage requires a permit because it crosses Russian territorial waters. Aleksandr N. Olshevsky, a retired captain of the Taimyr icebreaker and now director of the Federal Agency for Marine and River Transport, said he and others in the agency were in favor of lowering the fees as a means to increase traffic and generate revenue for maintaining the icebreakers, as well as buoys and other navigational aids.

“The ice conditions were far more severe 20 years ago,” he said.

Andrew E. Kramer reported from Moscow, and Andrew C. Revkin from New York.

 *** 지구 전체 평균보다 북극이 더 온난화되는 것은, 제타가 주장하는 계절 조작의 영향일 것으로 여겨집니다.

ZetaTalk: Simulating the Seasons
written May 26, 2006

---

The Big Dipper appears appropriate for May 25, 2006 at midnight. The only way to get the Big Dipper to appear as it did during the Oct 15 position, would be to assume a 5:00 pm time, then it lines up exactly as it did on midnight May 25. I also noted that the Sunset was in the extreme NW a couple days ago, estimated 20° too far to the North, and the message boards have been alive with similar observations for Sunrise, up to 30° too far North. We're supposed to be pushed back into the Fall position, in our orbit, a complexity of factors at play. Photos from Japan also show the Sun not moving steadily across the skyarc during the day, but faster at certain points. Then there's the issue of the Earth's magnetic field moving about, recently reported to be pushed further to the West from where it was days ago. This is such a confusing picture. What's going on? [and from another] Usually in May the Sun goes 15° degrees per hour. I photographed the Sun shadow during the day, and this is no longer the case. The Sun is at its zenith at 11:53 am here in Japan at Nara. I started the photo sessions at 9:53 am. From 10-11 it moved 30°, from 11-12 it moved 45°, from 12-1 it moved 50°, from 1-2 it moved 20°, from 2-3 only 10°, from 3-4:30 only 8°. Please ask the Zetas what this means!

Beyond the issue of why the constellations appeared normal to Nancy for May 25, 2006, when she assumed the Earth to be somewhere in the Fall position, there is also the issue of the Sun rising and setting too far to the North by many degrees, an estimated 20-30 degrees, as noted by Nancy and a number of other individuals posting on message boards and sending her frantic email. Nancy is trying to correlate these facts with our statements on the Earth orbit and tilt.

1. We have stated that Earth will be pushed back in her orbit to the point of August, prior to passage, and is held in the cup. The mobility for Earth while in the cup is up and down and side to side, but not for a very large distance.
2. We mentioned earlier that pushing the globe down below the Ecliptic is another way of maintaining the appearance of normalcy, as a lower posture vs a vs the Sun floods the Northern Hemisphere with sunlight, and puts the Southern Hemisphere into darker days for their Winter. Likewise bobbing the Earth up vs a vs the Sun, in the Ecliptic, allows the reverse.
3. We have explained that the constellations are overhead all the time, just not visible because of light pollution. In a globe out of position, constellations overhead in the dome appear only slightly out of position, but constellations on the horizon will switch, E/W, so this horizon view is a sure clue that the globe is out of position.
4. We have explained that a lean to the left would start to occur as the N Pole of Planet X swung round from the right, as the N Pole of Earth would attempt to evade this, leaning left. This would, as we stated, create a sunarc in the sky that would look increasingly aberrant. Planet X now appears to the right when looking toward the Sun, because the Earth is attempting to escape to the left, beginning to lean her N Pole away from the N Pole of Planet X which is emerging from the right hand side.

1. 지구는 통과 이전에, 그의 궤도에서 8월 위치로 밀려지게 될 것이라고 우리(제타)가 말했다. 그 (입자) 컵에 있는 동안 지구의 移動性은 ‘위 아래’ 그리고 ‘옆에서 옆으로’지만, 아주 큰 거리가 아니다.

2. 지구를 황도 아래로 미는 것은, 낮은 자세로 북반구에 햇빛 세례 홍수(를 주고)  그리고 남반구는 겨울처럼 어두운 날로 되기 때문에 外觀上 正常상태를 유지하는 또 하나의 방법이라고 우리가 말했다. 마찬 가지로 태양에 대해 지구를 황도에서 위 아래로 움직이는 것은 이의 반대 현상을 일어나게 한다.

3. 별자리는, 빛의 오염 때문에 꼭 보이지 않지만 언제나 머리 위에 있다고 우리가 설명했다. 제 자리에서 벗어난 지구에서 천궁에서의 별자리는 위치에서 약간 벗어난 것처럼 보이지만, 수평선 상에서의 별자리는 동서로 바뀌는데, 그래서 이 수평선 상에서 보는 것이, 지구가 위치에서 벗어나 있다는 확실한 실마리이다.

4. ‘왼쪽으로 기울기’는, 행성 X의 N극이 오른 쪽에서 둥글게 흔들리면서 지구의 N극이 이를 피하려고 시도하면서 왼쪽으로 기울면서 발생하기 시작할 것이라고 우리가 설명했다. 우리가 말했듯이 이것이, 하늘에서 선 아크(해가 떠서 질 때까지 지나가는 길)가 점점 더 달라지게 한다. 이제, 지구가 왼쪽으로 피하려고 시도하면서 N극을, 오른쪽에서 나타나는 행성 X의 N극으로부터 멀리 기울려고 하기 시작하기 때문에  태양을 향해 볼 때 행성 X는 오른 쪽으로 나타난다고 우리가 설명했다.

Do any of these statements apply to the current situation? The Council of Worlds has required an Element of Doubt be in place, not only about the alien presence but about the approaching pole shift, for many reasons. For the alien presence, a gradual realization on the subconscious level that man is not alone, and intelligent life from elsewhere is visiting, reduces the likelihood of contactees being attacked, burned at the stake by the threatened religious elite or governments. Thus, visitations are recorded in the subconscious, and the Element of Doubt is inserted when photos or video capture occurs. The Element of Doubt on the pole shift is to prevent panic in the establishment, premature imposition of Martial Law, which would surely occur as the establishment has no plan of action other than to save their sorry skins, leaving the common man to his own resources. Thus, the stalled orbit of Earth is hidden in Apparent Precision while benign aliens, ourselves and others, tip the globe to simulate the seasons. We are also manipulating the globe to simulate constellation normalcy. This may seem a fantastic and impossible maneuver, but we will explain.

In arranging to create the Element of Doubt as to the stalled orbit, we sometimes have to make choices. In that the rising and setting Sun would not be noticed by as many, given the workday world rushing to work and eating supper during those times, and given that the point where the Sun rises and sets could be argued, not likely to be measured by busy people on the go, this was deemed a lesser problem. If a constellation, well known, simply disappears from the sky, this not only stirs amateurs on the hunt for them in the night sky but the common man wanting to point these out for their children, stirring many question. So how has the Earth been arranged, vs a vs the Sun, to allow a more appropriate constellation view? The Big Dipper, as it appeared to Nancy, was inappropriate for the Fall position, her estimated Oct 15 position. The Fall position at midnight would have placed it some 1/6 of the way further round the horizon toward the North, and in a different point in its nightly rotation, the view from the Earth as the globe turns under the starry night, being approximately 25% further along in its rotation. Thus, the May 25 and Oct 15 views are not all that different, and a slight adjustment in the position of the globe to a 5:00 pm position puts the Big Dipper in the same place as on May 25 at midnight.

Where the manipulation we are required to do differs as the seasons progress, to simulate a May 25 date when the globe is in the Oct 15 position, the following occurred. We tipped the N Pole of Earth slightly toward the Sun, to bring more hours of daylight, as the Fall position is not yet at the Equinox of Sept 21, but the Spring position is well past the Equinox of March 21. This tipping puts the globe on a slight diagonal, which means the North Star, Polaris, and the Southern Celestrial Pole would be slightly askew, but not to the degree to be noticed by the common man or most amateur astronomers, who sight on these polar stars, assuming them to be correct, and do not use landmarks as locators. This diagonal lean of the Earth toward the Sun is what is causing the Sunrise and Sunset to appear so far to the North, at this time. It also causes an irregular speed of Sunarc, as the view from the Earth swoops down into daylight at the start of the day, and swoops up at dusk at the end of the day, rather than a steady path across the sky. Near noon, the Sunarc is running sideways across the sky, moving rapidly as it is covering more distance per hour. To align a familiar constellation like the Big Dipper, this sideways tip of the N Pole toward the Sun also assists. If on May 25 the Big Dipper is found in the NW, half way up in the dome, but on Oct 15 is found in the extreme NNE closer to the horizon, the tipping of the N Pole toward the Sun places this constellation higher in the dome. For the Big Dipper to also move toward the NW, the N Pole would have to likewise be tipped toward the East, somewhat, toward Planet X rather than away, and this was done. This has produced more magnetic stress, pushing the magnetic N Pole further to the West, at this time. The Lean to the Left we have predicted to occur leading into the 3 days of darkness has not as yet begun.

This manipulation, appropriate for the Element of Doubt on May 15, 2006, will change shortly, as each month presents new challenges to be addressed. For those Insecure, unable to deal with the reality of the presence of Planet X and what this means for their future, unable to deal with the fact of the cover-up and what this means for the likelihood that the government will protect and care for them in the future, the Element of Doubt is in place. For those astute enough to observe the anomalies, the quakes and stretch zone accidents and volcanic increases that are not explained by the Global Warming excuse, the signs are there that things are not right, and the explanation presented by our emissary, Nancy, fits the pieces of the puzzle together correctly. For most, confused by this lengthy discussion of the many factors at play, our manipulation of the view, and the constant change likely to occur as the seasons unfold, a simply examination of the latest oddity suffices. For those into mental gymnastics, careful computation, and putting all the observations together on one page and seeking what answer might account for them all, our words here this day will be a guide. Those wanting to deny will not deal with all the anomalies or observations, choosing to divide in order to attempt to conquer. But all the facts must be faced, at once, for a fair trial of any theory proposed. If the constellations are correct, then why is the Sunrise and Sunset so aberrant, and the swoop of the Sunarc irregular?

**** 관련 글

German ships sailing through North East Passage

Two German merchant ships have sailed through the once impassable North East Passage after global warming and melting ice opened a route from South Korea along Russia's Arctic coast to Siberia.

 

By Our Foreign Staff
Published: 11:28PM BST 11 Sep 2009

A pair of German merchant ships are seen as they traverse the fabled Northeast Passage Photo: AP

 

The ships are poised to complete their journey through the cold waters where icebergs abound, heading for Rotterdam in the Netherlands with 3,500 tons of construction parts.

The merchant ships MV Beluga Fraternity and MV Beluga Foresight arrived this week in Yamburg, Siberia, their owner Beluga Shipping GmbH said yesterday.

그 배들은 건설 자재 3500톤을 싣고 네덜런드 암스텔담을 향해, 빙산들이 많은 차가운 수역을 통과하여 여행을 마친 것 같다. 두 화물선은 이번 주 사이비어리어에 있는 얌부르그에 도착했다고 소유주인 벨루거 해운이 어제 말했다.

They travelled from Ulsan, South Korea, in late July to Siberia by way of the North East Passage, a sea lane that, in years past, was avoided because of its heavy ice floes.

Scientists report that the Arctic Ocean ice cap has been shrinking to unprecedented levels in recent summers, because of global warming, opening up many passages that were ice-choked in earlier times.

In July, new NASA satellite measurements showed that sea ice in the Arctic was not just shrinking in area, but thinning dramatically.

그들은 7월 하순에 한국 울산에서 출발하여, 과거에는 수 년 동안 무거운 빙원(유빙) 때문에 기피했던 해로인 북동 쪽 항로를 경유하여, 사이비어리어로 여행했다. 북해 얼음 뚜껑은, 지구온난화 때문에 최근 몇 해 여름에 전례없던 수준으로 줄어들어 초기에 얼음으로 막혔던 많은 통로를 열었다. 7월에 나사의 새 위성 측정은, 북극 바다 얼음은 면적에서 줄어들었을 뿐만 아니라 극적으로 얇아지고 있다는 것을 보여주었다.

Niels Stolberg, the president of Beluga, which is based in the German city of Bremen, called it the first time a Western shipping company successfully transited the North East Passage.

"To transit the North East Passage so well and professionally without incident on the premiere is the result of our extremely accurate preparation as well as the outstanding team work between our attentive captains, our reliable meteorologists and our engaged crew," Mr Stolberg said.

He said the shipping company was planning more voyages through the area in coming months. Traditionally, shippers travelling from Asia to Europe have to go through the Gulf of Aden and through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea and, pending their destination, into the Atlantic Ocean.

A journey from South Korean to the Netherlands, for example, is about 11,000 nautical miles (12,658 miles). By going northward and using the North East Passage, approximately 3,000 nautical miles (3,452 miles) and 10 days can be shaved off. That means lower fuel costs.

Researchers said the ability to navigate the route showed climate change.

"We are seeing an expression‎ of climate change here," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo. "The Arctic is warming; we're losing the sea ice cover. The more frequent opening of that North East Passage is part of the process we're seeing."

"The Arctic is becoming a blue ocean," Mr Serreze said.

For the last few years, including this year, navigator Roald Amundsen's famous North West Passage has been navigable. Then in 2007, the more crucial deep water channel called M'Clure Strait opened up and now the Northeast Passage, Serreze said. The passage "is the traditional choke point," Mr Serreze said.

That northern route "is going to become more and more open on a seasonal basis," he said. But it will not be consistently open because of local weather patterns that could still freeze it up for long time periods.

This year is shaping up to have the third lowest amount of Arctic sea ice on record, just behind the worst year set in 2007 and in 2008. But just because 2009 is slightly up from the past two years, it is not an upward trend or a recovery, Mr Serreze said. It reflects a change in local weather patterns that occurred in August, he added.

"It's certainly part of the overall decline of sea ice that we've been seeing."

Both ships, which carried cargo for a power plant project in Surgut, Siberia, were escorted by a pair of Russian icebreakers during portions of their journey. The Beluga Fraternity left South Korea on July 23, followed by the Beluga Foresight on July 28.

They arrived at the Novy Port, a major Russian shipping one on the west side of the Ob Gulf, an open body of water that stretches from the Ob River delta in the south to the Kara Sea in the north.

Verena Beckhusen, a spokeswoman for Beluga, said the Beluga Fraternity had already hoisted anchor and left Novy Port on Thursday. The Beluga Foresight is scheduled to cast off Saturday after its departure "was postponed due to bad weather."

Russia has long used its northern coast for shipping fuel, supplies and other goods to its remote Arctic settlements, though funding for such shipments dwindled after the Soviet collapse.