외신 전한반도의 "민주화"없이는 "북한문제해결챡"없어 / End to N.Korea Crisis Unlikely Under Kim--

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전한반도의 "민주화"없이는 "북한문제해결챡"없어 / End to N.Korea Crisis Unlikely Under Kim--

  End to N.Korea Crisis Unlikely Under Kim--General
                                                                Fri Oct 29, 2004 04:12 AM ET

                                                                           By Martin Nesirky
SEOUL (Reuters) - A permanent solution to the North Korean nuclear crisis is unlikely until Pyongyang's communist system gives way to democracy, a prominent former South Korean general said on Friday.
Kim Hee-sang told a seminar on security in Northeast Asia the prospects for the six-way talks on Pyongyang's nuclear programs were not bright and there was no guarantee North Korea would not concoct another crisis even if it negotiated an end to this one.
"The Korean peninsula is a powder keg," said Kim. "North Korea is like a fuse."
The former lieutenant-general is chairman of the South Korean government's Emergency Planning Commission, which prepares for disasters and war. He said he was addressing the seminar as an individual rather than a government official.
"A permanent solution to the North Korean nuclear issue does not seem possible until free democracy is established on the entire Korean peninsula," he said. "I am not very optimistic on the results of the six-party talks."
North Korea has attended three rounds of talks with China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the United States but refused to attend a fourth round scheduled for September.
It said U.S. policy was to blame; most experts agree Pyongyang and its leader Kim Jong-il want to see who wins Tuesday's U.S. presidential election.
Kim said China, which has hosted all the talks and is the North's main ally, should try more sincerely to persuade Pyongyang to ditch its nuclear ambitions.
Japan should focus on the nuclear crisis first, he said. That was a reference to Tokyo's bilateral talks with the North on Japanese citizens who were abducted.
"The possibility that the negotiations will bear fruit does not appear to be high," Kim said. "North Korea has apparently achieved a considerable level of nuclear development and is unlikely to back off."
There seemed little room for compromise between the U.S. insistence on complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of the North's atomic programs and Pyongyang's demand for U.S. security guarantees, the general said.
"Even if they did observe these agreements, there is no guarantee that North Korea would not bring up another crisis if its regime did not succeed in a soft landing," he said.
The key was to ensure that North Korea did not misunderstand the other five countries' intention.
"If North Korea really does already possess a few nukes as many experts believe, we might have to take drastic measures in order to make North Korea give up its nukes."
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.

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