미국방장관 럼스펠드는 이라크와 북한을 대상으로
전쟁을 같은 시간에 동시에 치를 수 있다고 큰소리치지만,
부시정부가 한반도 대한 바른 외교정책을 세우는 데에
지극히 어려운 지경에 처한 듯 싶다.
몇개월 이내에 원자탄 대여섯개를 만들 수 있는 북한을 생각하면
이라크 보다 먼저 북한을 깔아 뭉게야 할 형편인 데,
당장 북한에게 채찍을 들이내밀기에는
예측불허의 위험부담이 도사리고 있고
그렇타고 미운 놈에게 더더욱 당근을 던져줄 수는 없는 일.
어떤 점에서는 후세인 보다는 김정일이
패권주의자 부시의 유일한 맞수가 아닌가 싶다.
예상했던 대로 북한은 미국방성의 매파의 목에 칼을 들이 내밀었다.
먼저 북한은 북미협상 파괴의 책임을 미국에 묻고 있다.
뿐만 아니라 북한은
가장 위험한 비무장지대 주변에 배치되어 있다는 37,000의 미군을
북한이 보유하고 있는 화력으로 초토화시키는 일은
그야말로 식은 죽 먹기라는 것을 상기시키며
미국에게 함부로 날뛰지 마라고 으름장을 놓고 있다.
북한은 또한 현재의 위기를 북한과 미국의 문제로 규정하고
어떤 나라도 함부로 개입하지 말라고 당부하고 있다.
북한이 미국을 상대로 돌이킬 수 없는 최강수를 두는 상황에서
현 남한정부와 차기 정권담당자는
지극히 신중을 기할 필요가 있다.
최소한 북한의 강공수에 찬물을 끼얹는
어리석음은 피해 가야 할 것이다.
미국은 한반도에서 자국군대 수많명의 희생을 치루면서
복한을 응징하려 쉽게 달려들지는 않을 것이다.
그럴싸한 명분을 만들어 서로에게 좋을 협상을 이루어 내야 할 것이다.
한미간의 공조는 지극히 중요한 사안이다.
그러나 미국이 노골적으로 남북한 통일을 저해하고
오히려 북한을 곤경에 빠뜨려
한반도를 긴장시키려 한다면
대다수 한국인들은 앞으로 가만히 앉아 있지는
않을 것이다.
그럼에도 불구하고 한국 정부가 미군의 주둔을 요청한만큼
통일이 되어 미군이 한반도에 주둔할 명분이 사라질 때 까지는
양국간에 보다 조심스럽고 성숙한 협조 관계가 필요할 것이다.
다음은 NYT (Dec. 22)의 한국에 관한 두 중요한 기사를 발췌한 것이다.
South Korea Longs for Reunification With the North
By JAMES BROOKE
... "American taxpayers paid $3 billion this year
to keep their 37,000 troops in South Korea.
But these days, South Koreans, engulfed by anti-American sentiment,
don't seem very grateful." ....
"In early December, hundreds of thousands of people
turned out for the largest anti-American demonstrations
in South Korea's history.
The trigger for the protests was the acquittal of two United States Army sergeants, ..."
"But the protests were about more than
the perceived arrogance of American military personnel.
They were about the very future of the alliance
between South Korea and the United States.
Many South Koreans want unification between north and south;
they believe that North Korea is not a threat
and that Mr. Bush's "axis of evil" policy needlessly ratchets up tensions,
and threatens any chance of reunification."...
"On Thursday, Roh Moo Hyun, a labor lawyer, adroitly surfed
this wave of anti-Americanism to win a narrow victory
in the presidential election against a conservative candidate, Lee Hoi Chang.
Campaigning for a more independent Korea,
Mr. Roh, who has never visited the United States,
told voters during a televised debate in November:
"I have no intention of kowtowing to the U.S."
"In a survey of world opinion taken by the Pew Research Center, from July to November, South Korea and Argentina were the only non-Muslim countries surveyed where majorities opposed the American campaign against terrorism. In a September Gallup poll, nearly 60 percent of South Koreans surveyed said they did not believe North Korea posed a security threat." ...
"Defenders of the military alliance are just as invisible.
Korean government officials rarely spend political capital
on explaining the reasons for the alliance.
And American diplomats here follow a worldwide practice
of ducking appearances on talk shows.
Hence, on radio and television,
there is usually a one-note chorus of complaints
about American arrogance and interference in Korean affairs."
"... Mr. Roh ... welcomed (U.S.) troops, but implied that South Korea would be neutral, mediating if war broke out between the United States and North Korea. What does this mean for the United States? Lee Jung Hoon, an international relations professor at Yonsei University who supports a strong alliance, warned: "The U.S. is very clear that they are here at the request of the South Korean government and people. I don't think the U.S. government would think twice about pulling back, reinforcing in Guam, Japan or going back into the Philippines.""
Dave Kang's Article: "Two Countries, One Anxiety" (NYT, Dec. 22)
... "Mr. Roh was not simply an outbreak of emotional anti-Americanism.
Both countries have deep concerns about United States policy toward the peninsula.
It would be a mistake to dismiss South Korea's increasingly tense relations
with the United States as ephemeral, or the North's recent belligerence as irrational. Koreans in both the North and South are concerned
about an erratic United States policy that veers
between neglect and overattention and
that for the last two years has lacked an overarching vision."
...
"The unraveling of the 1994 accord between North Korea and the United States over the North's nuclear weapons was unsurprising. Both countries mistrust each other and are always seeking to confirm their prejudices. Yet the past eight years have seen many positive developments in North Korean behavior: increasing economic ties to other Asian countries, for example, and cooperation with the South to clear part of the demilitarized zone of land mines for a railroad."
...
"To have any hope of resolving the tensions on the Korean Peninsula,
the United States must pay more attention
to the needs and goals of both countries.
In recent years South Korea has made major strides
in economic and diplomatic relations with the North,
only to see those gains jeopardized in the last year
by clumsy American diplomacy toward North Korea."
(Dave Kang, associate professor of government at Dartmouth College, is author of ``Crony Capitalism: Corruption and Development in South Korea and the Philippines.')