4월 2주차_한국갤럽 여론조사_지지율 및 투표율

<div><div style="text-align: center;"><a class="tx-link" href="http://cafe.daum.net/ilovenba/" target="_blank"><img style="clear: none; float: none;" src="https://t1.daumcdn.net/cfile/cafe/241DE94852B9AFAB27"></a></div> 안녕하세요 아우구스투스입니다. 이번에는 제가 가장 신뢰하는 여론조사인 한국갤럽입니다. 먼저 기사보시겠습니다.<a class="con_link" href="http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/bulletin/2017/04/14/0200000000AKR20170414077200001.HTML" target="_blank">http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/bulletin/2017/04/14/0200000000AKR20170414077200001.HTML</a><div align="left"><div class="og"><div class="box"><div class="thumb s_size"><a href="http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/bulletin/2017/04/14/0200000000AKR20170414077200001.HTML" target="_blank"></a></div><div class="txt"><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/bulletin/2017/04/14/0200000000AKR20170414077200001.HTML" target="_blank"><div class="tit"> </div></a></div></div></div><div align="left"><img class="m20" alt="" src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.naver.net%2Fblank.gif"></div></div> ◈갤럽을 신뢰하는 이유는 아무래도 굉장히 보수적이라는 점이 큽니다. 사실 보수적인게 좋다 안 좋다 할 수는 없지만 적어도 보수적인 부분이 신중함을 가져온다고 판단합니다. 먼저 지지율보시겠습니다.<table width="464" style="width: 348pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;"><col width="76" style="width: 57pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2432;" span="5"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">기본</td><td width="76" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 57pt; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">문재인</td><td width="76" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 57pt; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">안철수</td><td width="76" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 57pt; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);">홍준표</td><td width="76" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 57pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">심상정</td><td width="76" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 57pt; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">유승민</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">1주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">38.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">35.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);">7.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">4.0%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">40.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">37.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);">7.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">3.0%</td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">차이</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">2.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">2.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);">0.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">0.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">-1.0%</td></tr></tbody></table>▶문, 안 두 후보가 모두 상승하면서 지난주와 똑같이 격차가 3%차이로 유지되었습니다.▶보수적인 조사답게 다른 조사에 비해서 이슈에 대한 반응이 좀 느리다는 평가를 받는데 그에 맞는 평가라 생각됩니다. 다음은 투표의향층을 한번 보시겠습니다.<table width="168" style="width: 126pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;" span="2"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border: 0.5pt solid windowtext; border-image: none; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">주차</td><td width="84" style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 63pt; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">투표의향</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">1주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">87%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">90%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">차이</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">3%</td></tr></tbody></table>▶ 전주에 비해서 더욱 올라간 모습을 보실 수 있습니다. 그렇다면 투표의향층에서의 지지율 한번 보시죠.<table width="429" style="width: 323pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;"><col width="69" style="width: 52pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2208;" span="5"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">투표</td><td width="69" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 52pt; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">문재인</td><td width="69" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 52pt; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">안철수</td><td width="69" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 52pt; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);">홍준표</td><td width="69" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 52pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">심상정</td><td width="69" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 52pt; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">유승민</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">42.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">36.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);">7.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">2.0%</td></tr></tbody></table>▶격차가 3%에서 6%로 늘어난 것을 보실 수 있습니다. 좀더 세분화해서 봐보죠. <table width="687" style="width: 517pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;"><col width="93" style="width: 70pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2976;"><col width="85" style="width: 64pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2720;" span="6"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="44" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 33pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);" rowspan="2">연령</td><td width="93" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 70pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);" rowspan="2">3월말기준 유권자수</td><td width="85" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 64pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">1주차</td><td width="85" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 64pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">2주차</td><td width="85" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 64pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">보정(-14%)</td><td width="85" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 64pt; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);" rowspan="2">1주차</td><td width="85" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 64pt; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);" rowspan="2">2주차</td><td width="85" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 64pt; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);" rowspan="2">보정</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">19~29세</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">     7,422,677 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">82.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">85.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">71.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    6,086,595 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    6,309,275 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    5,270,101 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">30대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">     7,491,114 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">88.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">91.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">77.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    6,592,180 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    6,816,914 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    5,768,158 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">40대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">     8,752,673 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">87.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">96.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">82.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    7,614,826 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    8,402,566 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    7,177,192 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">50대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">     8,466,159 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">87.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">86.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">72.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    7,365,558 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    7,280,897 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    6,095,634 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">60대이상</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">    10,286,758 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">88.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">91.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">77.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    9,052,347 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    9,360,950 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">    7,920,804 </td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">합계</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">    42,419,381 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">86.5%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">90.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">76.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">  36,711,506 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">  38,170,602 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(218, 238, 243);">  32,231,888 </td></tr></tbody></table>▶보정(-14%)의 의미는 다음과 같습니다.※17대와 18대 대선 당시 투표의향층과 실제 투표율의 차이가 14%가량 났습니다. 그에 따라 대략 저정도라면 이렇게 나오지 않을까 예상이 됩니다. ◈3월말 기준 유권자 기준으로 하니 1주차와 2주차에서 약 3% 이상 투표의지가 올라간 것을 보실 수 있습니다.◈전체적으로 40대의 투표의지가 활활 타오른 반면 20대와 50대는 아직 그리 투표율이 높게 나오고 있지 않습니다.◈60대 이상은 다른 조사와 달리 갤럽에서는 꽤 많이 나오는데 이것은 면접 조사의 특징일지도 몰라보이네요. ★만일 보정수치가 적용되면 대략 지난 대선과 거의 유사한 투표율이 예상됩니다.★그러나 다른 점이라면 30~40대의 투표율이 지난 대선보다 올라간다는 점인데 30대와 40대 모두 7%가량 올라갑니다. 반대로 50대는 지난대선 대비 10%가 하락하며 60대 이상도 3~4%가량 떨어지게 됩니다. 확실히 30~40대가 살기 힘들고 화가 났다는 것은 부정할 수 없는 사실이네요. 그 와중에 20대 투표율은 좀 아쉽긴 하네요. 대략적으로 시뮬레이션을 돌려봤습니다.<table width="807" style="width: 608pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;"><col width="93" style="width: 70pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2976;"><col width="48" style="width: 36pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1536;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="48" style="width: 36pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1536;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="48" style="width: 36pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1536;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="48" style="width: 36pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1536;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="48" style="width: 36pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1536;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: transparent;"> </td><td width="93" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 70pt; background-color: transparent;">비율</td><td width="126" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; width: 95pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">문재인</td><td width="126" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; width: 95pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">안철수</td><td width="126" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; width: 95pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">홍준표</td><td width="126" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; width: 95pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">심상정</td><td width="126" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; width: 95pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">유승민</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">유권자수</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">     41,951,015 </td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);" colspan="2">40.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);" colspan="2">37.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);" colspan="2">7.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" colspan="2">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);" colspan="2">3.0%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">적극투표인수</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">     31,882,771 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);" rowspan="2">42.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);" rowspan="2"> 13,390,764 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);" rowspan="2">36.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);" rowspan="2"> 11,477,798 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);" rowspan="2">7.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);" rowspan="2">   2,231,794 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">      956,483 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);" rowspan="2">2.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);" rowspan="2">      637,655 </td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">예상투표율</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">76.0%</td></tr></tbody></table>▶아주 단순한 시뮬레이션인데 뭐 얼마나 표를 얻을지 대략 계산해본 수치에 가깝습니다. 이건 1주차 시뮬레이션입니다.<table width="807" style="width: 608pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;"><col width="93" style="width: 70pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2976;"><col width="48" style="width: 36pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1536;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="48" style="width: 36pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1536;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="48" style="width: 36pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1536;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="48" style="width: 36pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1536;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="48" style="width: 36pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1536;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: transparent;"> </td><td width="93" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 70pt; background-color: transparent;">비율</td><td width="126" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 95pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">문재인</td><td width="126" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 95pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">안철수</td><td width="126" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 95pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">홍준표</td><td width="126" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 95pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">심상정</td><td width="126" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; width: 95pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">유승민</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">유권자수</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">     41,951,015 </td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);" colspan="2">38.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);" colspan="2">35.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);" colspan="2">7.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" colspan="2">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);" colspan="2">4.0%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">적극투표인수</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">     30,414,486 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);" rowspan="2">38.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);" rowspan="2"> 11,557,505 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);" rowspan="2">35.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);" rowspan="2"> 10,645,070 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);" rowspan="2">7.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);" rowspan="2">   2,129,014 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">      912,435 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);" rowspan="2">4.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);" rowspan="2">   1,216,579 </td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">예상투표율</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">72.5%</td></tr></tbody></table>▶1주차에는 적극투표층이 없다보니까 기본 지지율 그대로 넣을 수 밖에 없었습니다.◈기준이 다르다보니 시각적인 간단한 비교 외에는 비교하면 안되는거라고 판단합니다. ◈일단 목요일부터 나온 다른 여론조사와의 조금은 상황이 다르긴 합니다.◈물론 갤럽 이전에 나온 리얼미터 정례조사도 1주차와 큰 변동이 없기는 하지만 두 후보간의 차이가 났고 같은 날 발표하는 다른 방식의 리서치뷰는 꽤 차이가 났습니다. 일요일에 나오는 KSOI의 경우도 10%이상의 차이가 나면서 전주와는 차이가 납니다.◈특히나 갤럽은 같은 날 발표하는 리서치뷰와는 꽤나 대비되는 모습을 보여줍니다. 갤럽은 유선을 일부 섞으면서 100% 면접 방식, 리서치뷰는 100% 무선에다가 ARS 방식으로 확연히 다른 색깔을 보여줍니다. 게다가 리서치뷰는 대놓고 갤럽을 저격하면서 정례조사 발표일도 금요일로 바꿨으니 이번 대선을 통해서 어느 방식이 더 적합한지 나올 수 있을거 같네요. 일단 한국갤럽의 투표율 및 지지율 살펴보셨습니다.이제 연령별 분석으로 돌아올 수 있도록 하겠습니다. </div>

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非스포츠 게시판 정치 4월 2주차_한국갤럽 여론조사_지지율 및 투표율

아우구스투스 추천 0 조회 781 17.04.18 00:15 댓글 2

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빌리더키드
17.04.18 00:17

첫댓글 정말 감사합니다
다미닉 윌킨스
17.04.18 08:44

매번 잘보고 있습니다. 수고해주셔서 너무 감사드리구요.. 종편들이 유독 열심히 이 갤럽조사를 방송에 활용하더군요..
보수적인 조사라라면, 합리성을 기반으로 하고 있느냐가 중요한 포인트일텐데, 갤럽은 유선전화 비율이 너무 높아요 ㅎㅎ
저게 얼마나 현실성을 담보할 수 있느냐라고 보면, 갤럽조사는 좀 억측이 나올 가능성이 높은 조사로 보입니다.

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