정치 4월 3주차_여론조사 종합_지역별분석

[아우구스투스]

안녕하세요 아우구스투스입니다.

4월 4주차가 끝나는데 4월 3주차 여론조사를 종합한다는게 웃기긴한데 그래도 뭐 어쩔수 없네요. 이게 생각보다는 시간을 잡아먹기는 합니다.

활용한 여론조사는 4월 3주차 알앤써치, 리얼미터, 리서치뷰, 한국갤럽 그리고 4월 4주차 KSOI 여론조사입니다.

그 3탄으로 지역별분석시간입니다.

기본 지지율입니다.

3주차	문재인	안철수	홍준표	심상정	유승민
알앤써치	46.0%	31.3%	10.2%	3.5%	3.9%
리얼미터	43.8%	32.3%	10.2%	4.2%	3.2%
리서치뷰	43.3%	31.3%	11.4%	5.0%	3.8%
한국갤럽	41.0%	30.0%	9.0%	4.0%	3.0%
KSOI	44.4%	32.5%	8.4%	5.3%	5.0%
종합	43.7%	31.5%	9.8%	4.4%	3.8%

1~3주차 비교를 해보죠.

정례조사	문재인	안철수	홍준표	심상정	유승민
1주차	41.0%	34.6%	9.1%	3.1%	2.8%
2주차	44.0%	36.3%	8.0%	3.1%	2.5%
3주차	43.7%	31.5%	9.8%	4.4%	3.8%
차이	-0.3%	-4.8%	1.9%	1.3%	1.3%

지역별로는 일단 투표율부터 한번 체크해보죠.

지역별 적극투표층입니다.

3주차	알앤써치	리얼미터	리서치뷰	한국갤럽	KSOI	종합(1)
서울	70.1%	70.3%	94.8%	92.0%	88.4%	83.1%
경기	70.7%	71.7%	94.6%	91.0%	88.4%	83.3%
인천	70.7%	71.7%	94.6%	91.0%	88.4%	83.3%
부산	68.6%	76.4%	97.7%	88.0%	89.5%	84.0%
울산	68.6%	76.4%	97.7%	88.0%	89.5%	84.0%
경남	68.6%	76.4%	97.7%	88.0%	89.5%	84.0%
대구	66.3%	64.3%	98.2%	87.0%	88.7%	80.9%
경북	66.3%	64.3%	98.2%	87.0%	88.7%	80.9%
대전	64.0%	67.8%	97.3%	90.0%	85.5%	80.9%
충북	64.0%	67.8%	97.3%	90.0%	85.5%	80.9%
충남	64.0%	67.8%	97.3%	90.0%	85.5%	80.9%
세종	64.0%	67.8%	97.3%	90.0%	85.5%	80.9%
광주	71.6%	75.9%	96.9%	94.0%	93.3%	86.3%
전북	71.6%	75.9%	96.9%	94.0%	93.3%	86.3%
전남	71.6%	75.9%	96.9%	94.0%	93.3%	86.3%
강원	80.1%	75.9%	91.1%	90.0%	87.9%	85.0%
제주	80.1%	61.5%	91.1%	90.0%	87.9%	82.1%

보정투표층입니다.

3주차	알앤써치	리얼미터	리서치뷰	한국갤럽	KSOI	종합(2)
서울	82.1%	75.3%	79.8%	78.0%	80.4%	79.1%
경기	82.7%	76.0%	79.6%	77.0%	80.4%	79.1%
인천	82.7%	76.0%	79.6%	77.0%	80.4%	79.1%
부산	81.0%	78.5%	82.7%	74.0%	81.5%	79.5%
울산	81.0%	78.5%	82.7%	74.0%	81.5%	79.5%
경남	81.0%	78.5%	82.7%	74.0%	81.5%	79.5%
대구	77.5%	69.3%	83.2%	73.0%	80.7%	76.7%
경북	77.5%	69.3%	83.2%	73.0%	80.7%	76.7%
대전	77.6%	76.1%	82.3%	76.0%	77.5%	77.9%
충북	77.6%	76.1%	82.3%	76.0%	77.5%	77.9%
충남	77.6%	76.1%	82.3%	76.0%	77.5%	77.9%
세종	77.6%	76.1%	82.3%	76.0%	77.5%	77.9%
광주	84.2%	79.0%	81.9%	80.0%	85.3%	82.1%
전북	84.2%	79.0%	81.9%	80.0%	85.3%	82.1%
전남	84.2%	79.0%	81.9%	80.0%	85.3%	82.1%
강원	88.8%	78.2%	76.1%	76.0%	79.9%	79.8%
제주	88.8%	68.2%	76.1%	76.0%	79.9%	77.8%

주차별 비교분석입니다.

지역	선거인수	1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차
서울	8,427,412	82.5%	83.5%	79.1%	6,951,772	7,037,732	6,666,926
경기	9,969,097	81.8%	82.2%	79.1%	8,155,718	8,196,592	7,887,550
인천	2,371,674	81.8%	82.2%	79.1%	1,940,266	1,949,990	1,876,468
부산	2,952,212	80.0%	80.2%	79.5%	2,361,770	2,366,788	2,347,894
울산	933,463	80.0%	80.2%	79.5%	746,770	748,357	742,383
경남	2,711,727	80.0%	80.2%	79.5%	2,169,382	2,173,992	2,156,636
대구	2,024,624	73.8%	79.5%	76.7%	1,493,970	1,609,171	1,553,696
경북	2,233,612	73.8%	79.5%	76.7%	1,648,182	1,775,275	1,714,074
대전	1,213,250	79.4%	81.8%	77.9%	962,957	992,439	944,879
충북	1,281,557	79.4%	81.8%	77.9%	1,017,172	1,048,314	998,077
충남	1,670,478	79.4%	81.8%	77.9%	1,325,858	1,366,451	1,300,968
세종	165,626	79.4%	81.8%	77.9%	131,457	135,482	128,990
광주	1,154,893	84.8%	85.4%	82.1%	979,811	986,394	947,705
전북	1,515,768	84.8%	85.4%	82.1%	1,285,978	1,294,617	1,243,839
전남	1,565,736	84.8%	85.4%	82.1%	1,328,370	1,337,295	1,284,843
강원	1,269,208	77.6%	78.8%	79.8%	985,159	999,628	1,012,574
제주	490,678	78.0%	78.4%	77.8%	382,876	384,544	381,698
계	41,951,015	80.7%	82.0%	79.1%	33,867,469	34,403,061	33,189,201

▶약간 투표의지가 떨어지는 느낌이지만 워낙 지역별로는 표본도 적은데다가 오차범위내니까요.

그럼 주요 후보들의 주요 여론조사의 지역별 지지율 한번 보시죠.

문재인	지역	알앤써치			리얼미터			리서치뷰			한국갤럽			KSOI			종합
		1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차
수도권	서울	40.0%	42.3%	45.2%	45.8%	46.3%	49.6%	38.4%	47.1%	43.7%	35.0%	39.0%	38.0%	40.1%	47.2%	39.6%	39.9%	44.4%	43.2%
	경기	40.9%	43.6%	49.3%	44.7%	47.9%	47.6%	42.6%	46.7%	44.1%	42.0%	43.0%	45.0%	43.4%	51.1%	48.0%	42.7%	46.5%	46.8%
	인천	40.9%	43.6%	49.3%	44.7%	47.9%	47.6%	42.6%	46.7%	44.1%	42.0%	43.0%	45.0%	43.4%	51.1%	48.0%	42.7%	46.5%	46.8%
PK	부산	39.3%	43.2%	46.3%	45.2%	44.6%	43.3%	42.7%	47.9%	41.7%	41.0%	41.0%	40.0%	42.2%	47.4%	42.1%	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%
	울산	39.3%	43.2%	46.3%	45.2%	44.6%	43.3%	42.7%	47.9%	41.7%	41.0%	41.0%	40.0%	42.2%	47.4%	42.1%	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%
	경남	39.3%	43.2%	46.3%	45.2%	44.6%	43.3%	42.7%	47.9%	41.7%	41.0%	41.0%	40.0%	42.2%	47.4%	42.1%	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%
TK	대구	30.6%	32.7%	25.0%	30.1%	30.5%	27.4%	34.0%	25.8%	27.3%	15.0%	25.0%	24.0%	36.2%	26.5%	36.7%	29.2%	28.1%	28.1%
	경북	30.6%	32.7%	25.0%	30.1%	30.5%	27.4%	34.0%	25.8%	27.3%	15.0%	25.0%	24.0%	36.2%	26.5%	36.7%	29.2%	28.1%	28.1%
충청권	대전	43.5%	46.8%	46.2%	35.0%	44.6%	36.7%	46.8%	47.7%	50.0%	39.0%	39.0%	46.0%	38.3%	46.7%	43.9%	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%
	충북	43.5%	46.8%	46.2%	35.0%	44.6%	36.7%	46.8%	47.7%	50.0%	39.0%	39.0%	46.0%	38.3%	46.7%	43.9%	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%
	충남	43.5%	46.8%	46.2%	35.0%	44.6%	36.7%	46.8%	47.7%	50.0%	39.0%	39.0%	46.0%	38.3%	46.7%	43.9%	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%
	세종	43.5%	46.8%	46.2%	35.0%	44.6%	36.7%	46.8%	47.7%	50.0%	39.0%	39.0%	46.0%	38.3%	46.7%	43.9%	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%
호남권	광주	49.8%	43.8%	57.5%	46.3%	48.9%	45.9%	54.4%	51.4%	51.9%	52.0%	47.0%	51.0%	50.9%	53.3%	52.0%	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%
	전북	49.8%	43.8%	57.5%	46.3%	48.9%	45.9%	54.4%	51.4%	51.9%	52.0%	47.0%	51.0%	50.9%	53.3%	52.0%	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%
	전남	49.8%	43.8%	57.5%	46.3%	48.9%	45.9%	54.4%	51.4%	51.9%	52.0%	47.0%	51.0%	50.9%	53.3%	52.0%	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%
기타	강원	46.5%	37.0%	47.9%	36.8%	42.3%	42.3%	42.4%	46.0%	42.7%	38.0%	40.0%	41.0%	35.4%	46.1%	50.4%	39.8%	42.3%	44.9%
	제주	40.8%	42.3%	47.9%	28.3%	41.1%	47.9%	42.4%	46.0%	42.7%	38.0%	40.0%	41.0%	35.4%	46.1%	50.4%	37.0%	43.1%	46.0%

▶의외로 서울이 강하지 못하고 호남은 3주차되니 50%를 못 넘긴 여론조사가 없네요.

안철수	지역	알앤써치			리얼미터			리서치뷰			한국갤럽			KSOI			종합
		1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차
수도권	서울	33.3%	39.0%	31.3%	31.7%	35.9%	30.4%	37.3%	36.2%	32.1%	39.0%	36.0%	34.0%	40.3%	36.1%	35.3%	36.3%	36.6%	32.6%
	경기	32.2%	37.6%	31.2%	32.9%	37.4%	30.2%	36.7%	36.6%	32.9%	34.0%	38.0%	28.0%	38.4%	34.3%	30.5%	34.8%	36.8%	30.6%
	인천	32.2%	37.6%	31.2%	32.9%	37.4%	30.2%	36.7%	36.6%	32.9%	34.0%	38.0%	28.0%	38.4%	34.3%	30.5%	34.8%	36.8%	30.6%
PK	부산	27.7%	29.0%	24.5%	30.7%	31.0%	32.2%	31.9%	32.0%	24.1%	25.0%	28.0%	30.0%	29.3%	29.2%	33.4%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%
	울산	27.7%	29.0%	24.5%	30.7%	31.0%	32.2%	31.9%	32.0%	24.1%	25.0%	28.0%	30.0%	29.3%	29.2%	33.4%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%
	경남	27.7%	29.0%	24.5%	30.7%	31.0%	32.2%	31.9%	32.0%	24.1%	25.0%	28.0%	30.0%	29.3%	29.2%	33.4%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%
TK	대구	23.1%	33.0%	44.0%	33.4%	40.1%	35.1%	27.8%	44.7%	32.6%	38.0%	48.0%	23.0%	26.5%	34.1%	31.2%	29.8%	40.0%	33.2%
	경북	23.1%	33.0%	44.0%	33.4%	40.1%	35.1%	27.8%	44.7%	32.6%	38.0%	48.0%	23.0%	26.5%	34.1%	31.2%	29.8%	40.0%	33.2%
충청권	대전	25.0%	32.5%	29.4%	40.5%	32.0%	37.1%	35.6%	33.2%	30.1%	42.0%	42.0%	29.0%	45.9%	35.0%	34.5%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%
	충북	25.0%	32.5%	29.4%	40.5%	32.0%	37.1%	35.6%	33.2%	30.1%	42.0%	42.0%	29.0%	45.9%	35.0%	34.5%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%
	충남	25.0%	32.5%	29.4%	40.5%	32.0%	37.1%	35.6%	33.2%	30.1%	42.0%	42.0%	29.0%	45.9%	35.0%	34.5%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%
	세종	25.0%	32.5%	29.4%	40.5%	32.0%	37.1%	35.6%	33.2%	30.1%	42.0%	42.0%	29.0%	45.9%	35.0%	34.5%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%
호남권	광주	39.0%	47.4%	29.3%	41.7%	43.3%	35.9%	34.6%	41.4%	36.9%	38.0%	36.0%	35.0%	43.4%	36.5%	33.5%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%
	전북	39.0%	47.4%	29.3%	41.7%	43.3%	35.9%	34.6%	41.4%	36.9%	38.0%	36.0%	35.0%	43.4%	36.5%	33.5%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%
	전남	39.0%	47.4%	29.3%	41.7%	43.3%	35.9%	34.6%	41.4%	36.9%	38.0%	36.0%	35.0%	43.4%	36.5%	33.5%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%
기타	강원	35.7%	48.1%	36.4%	33.9%	38.4%	34.6%	35.1%	36.5%	28.4%	35.0%	37.0%	30.0%	49.3%	36.5%	27.1%	37.8%	39.3%	31.3%
	제주	30.9%	37.0%	36.4%	36.0%	39.3%	16.7%	35.1%	36.5%	28.4%	35.0%	37.0%	30.0%	49.3%	36.5%	27.1%	37.3%	37.3%	27.7%

▶3주차 중반 여론조사부터 TK에서의 하락세가 눈에 띄며 또한 3주차 되면서 호남 역시도 하락세입니다.

홍준표	지역	알앤써치			리얼미터			리서치뷰			한국갤럽			KSOI			종합
		1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차
수도권	서울	10.3%	8.2%	9.2%	9.3%	6.1%	8.0%	8.6%	13.1%	9.3%	5.0%	8.0%	9.0%	6.9%	4.1%	9.0%	8.0%	7.9%	8.9%
	경기	9.2%	7.2%	8.1%	6.9%	5.3%	6.5%	10.1%	6.7%	7.7%	7.0%	4.0%	4.0%	3.9%	4.6%	5.6%	7.4%	5.6%	6.4%
	인천	9.2%	7.2%	8.1%	6.9%	5.3%	6.5%	10.1%	6.7%	7.7%	7.0%	4.0%	4.0%	3.9%	4.6%	5.6%	7.4%	5.6%	6.4%
PK	부산	18.0%	15.2%	16.4%	13.0%	14.3%	15.6%	15.5%	9.0%	21.0%	13.0%	13.0%	12.0%	12.4%	10.4%	14.0%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%
	울산	18.0%	15.2%	16.4%	13.0%	14.3%	15.6%	15.5%	9.0%	21.0%	13.0%	13.0%	12.0%	12.4%	10.4%	14.0%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%
	경남	18.0%	15.2%	16.4%	13.0%	14.3%	15.6%	15.5%	9.0%	21.0%	13.0%	13.0%	12.0%	12.4%	10.4%	14.0%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%
TK	대구	24.6%	15.1%	18.2%	14.7%	13.3%	19.0%	17.2%	12.7%	22.0%	14.0%	8.0%	26.0%	14.9%	19.7%	12.5%	17.1%	13.8%	19.5%
	경북	24.6%	15.1%	18.2%	14.7%	13.3%	19.0%	17.2%	12.7%	22.0%	14.0%	8.0%	26.0%	14.9%	19.7%	12.5%	17.1%	13.8%	19.5%
충청권	대전	15.9%	9.5%	10.4%	8.2%	10.6%	11.9%	10.3%	10.9%	7.8%	3.0%	6.0%	7.0%	5.0%	6.3%	8.4%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%
	충북	15.9%	9.5%	10.4%	8.2%	10.6%	11.9%	10.3%	10.9%	7.8%	3.0%	6.0%	7.0%	5.0%	6.3%	8.4%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%
	충남	15.9%	9.5%	10.4%	8.2%	10.6%	11.9%	10.3%	10.9%	7.8%	3.0%	6.0%	7.0%	5.0%	6.3%	8.4%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%
	세종	15.9%	9.5%	10.4%	8.2%	10.6%	11.9%	10.3%	10.9%	7.8%	3.0%	6.0%	7.0%	5.0%	6.3%	8.4%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%
호남권	광주	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	1.7%	2.0%	7.1%	0.6%	3.9%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%	2.5%	2.8%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%
	전북	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	1.7%	2.0%	7.1%	0.6%	3.9%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%	2.5%	2.8%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%
	전남	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	1.7%	2.0%	7.1%	0.6%	3.9%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%	2.5%	2.8%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%
기타	강원	13.6%	6.1%	4.8%	10.8%	14.8%	6.7%	10.3%	8.8%	15.6%	0.0%	7.0%	9.0%	2.4%	1.6%	8.3%	7.4%	7.7%	8.9%
	제주	12.6%	9.1%	4.8%	7.8%	2.1%	14.1%	10.3%	8.8%	15.6%	0.0%	7.0%	9.0%	2.4%	2.4%	8.3%	6.6%	5.9%	10.4%

▶TK부터 PK까지 영남권 지지를 다시 찾아오는게 보입니다.

※그러나 지역별 여론조사는 표본이 너무 적기에 오차범위가 꽤 큽니다.

좀 정리해보죠.

권역	지역	문재인			안철수			홍준표
		1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	1주차	2주차	3주차
수도권	서울	39.9%	44.4%	43.2%	36.3%	36.6%	32.6%	8.0%	7.9%	8.9%
	경기	42.7%	46.5%	46.8%	34.8%	36.8%	30.6%	7.4%	5.6%	6.4%
	인천	42.7%	46.5%	46.8%	34.8%	36.8%	30.6%	7.4%	5.6%	6.4%
PK	부산	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%
	울산	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%
	경남	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%
TK	대구	29.2%	28.1%	28.1%	29.8%	40.0%	33.2%	17.1%	13.8%	19.5%
	경북	29.2%	28.1%	28.1%	29.8%	40.0%	33.2%	17.1%	13.8%	19.5%
충청권	대전	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%
	충북	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%
	충남	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%
	세종	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%
호남권	광주	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%
	전북	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%
	전남	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%
기타	강원	39.8%	42.3%	44.9%	37.8%	39.3%	31.3%	7.4%	7.7%	8.9%
	제주	37.0%	43.1%	46.0%	37.3%	37.3%	27.7%	6.6%	5.9%	10.4%

▶ 문재인 후보야 당연한거지만 큰 변동이 없는게 보이고 추세상 상당히 유리한 고지를 점령했다 봐야죠.

▶ 안철수 후보는 TK와 호남이 동반 하락한게 매우 치명적입니다.

▶ 홍준표 후보는 아직은 크진 않지만 영남권이 상승중인게 상당히 고무적​이죠.

그러면 시뮬레이션 돌려봅시다.

1.18대 대선 지역별분석

권역	지역	20대총선 선거인수	권역별 선거인수	18대 대선 투표율	투표수	권역별 투표수	문재인	득표수	안철수	득표수	홍준표	득표수
수도권	서울	8,427,412	20,768,183	75.1%	6,328,986	15,560,848	43.2%	2,735,387.93	32.6%	2,064,515	8.9%	563,280
	경기	9,969,097		75.0%	7,476,823		46.8%	3,499,153.05	30.6%	2,284,917	6.4%	477,021
	인천	2,371,674		74.0%	1,755,039		46.8%	821,358.14	30.6%	536,340	6.4%	111,971
PK	부산	2,952,212	6,597,402	76.2%	2,249,586	5,069,450	42.7%	960,123.11	28.8%	648,780	15.8%	355,435
	울산	933,463		78.4%	731,835		42.7%	312,347.17	28.8%	211,061	15.8%	115,630
	경남	2,711,727		77.0%	2,088,030		42.7%	891,171.11	28.8%	602,188	15.8%	329,909
TK	대구	2,024,624	4,258,236	79.7%	1,613,625	3,360,310	28.1%	453,105.99	33.2%	535,401	19.5%	315,302
	경북	2,233,612		78.2%	1,746,685		28.1%	490,469.03	33.2%	579,550	19.5%	341,302
충청권	대전	1,213,250	4,330,911	76.5%	928,136	3,229,811	44.6%	413,577.51	32.0%	297,189	9.1%	84,460
	충북	1,281,557		75.0%	961,168		44.6%	428,296.35	32.0%	307,766	9.1%	87,466
	충남	1,670,478		72.9%	1,217,778		44.6%	542,642.08	32.0%	389,933	9.1%	110,818
	세종	165,626		74.1%	122,729		44.6%	54,687.98	32.0%	39,298	9.1%	11,168
호남권	광주	1,154,893	4,236,397	80.4%	928,534	3,293,463	51.7%	479,680.65	34.1%	316,816	3.4%	31,756
	전북	1,515,768		77.0%	1,167,141		51.7%	602,945.23	34.1%	398,229	3.4%	39,916
	전남	1,565,736		76.5%	1,197,788		51.7%	618,777.30	34.1%	408,685	3.4%	40,964
기타	강원	1,269,208	1,759,886	73.8%	936,676	1,296,342	44.9%	420,192.63	31.3%	293,179	8.9%	83,177
	제주	490,678		73.3%	359,667		46.0%	165,374.87	27.7%	99,700	10.4%	37,261
계		41,951,015	41,951,015	75.8%	31,810,225	31,810,225	43.7%	13,889,290	31.5%	10,013,547	9.9%	3,136,838

2.적극투표층기준

권역	지역	20대총선 선거인수	권역별 선거인수	종합(1)	투표수	권역별 투표수	문재인	득표수	안철수	득표수	홍준표	득표수
수도권	서울	8,427,412	20,768,183	83.1%	7,004,865	17,282,259	43.2%	3,027,502.59	32.6%	2,284,987	8.9%	623,433
	경기	9,969,097		83.3%	8,302,264		46.8%	3,885,459.54	30.6%	2,537,172	6.4%	529,684
	인천	2,371,674		83.3%	1,975,130		46.8%	924,360.89	30.6%	603,600	6.4%	126,013
PK	부산	2,952,212	6,597,402	84.0%	2,481,039	5,544,457	42.7%	1,058,907.43	28.8%	715,532	15.8%	392,004
	울산	933,463		84.0%	784,482		42.7%	334,817.05	28.8%	226,245	15.8%	123,948
	경남	2,711,727		84.0%	2,278,935		42.7%	972,649.62	28.8%	657,245	15.8%	360,072
TK	대구	2,024,624	4,258,236	80.9%	1,637,921	3,444,913	28.1%	459,928.17	33.2%	543,462	19.5%	320,050
	경북	2,233,612		80.9%	1,806,992		28.1%	507,403.38	33.2%	599,560	19.5%	353,086
충청권	대전	1,213,250	4,330,911	80.9%	981,762	3,504,573	44.6%	437,473.10	32.0%	314,360	9.1%	89,340
	충북	1,281,557		80.9%	1,037,036		44.6%	462,103.21	32.0%	332,059	9.1%	94,370
	충남	1,670,478		80.9%	1,351,751		44.6%	602,340.16	32.0%	432,831	9.1%	123,009
	세종	165,626		80.9%	134,025		44.6%	59,721.34	32.0%	42,915	9.1%	12,196
호남권	광주	1,154,893	4,236,397	86.3%	997,135	3,657,705	51.7%	515,119.74	34.1%	340,222	3.4%	34,102
	전북	1,515,768		86.3%	1,308,714		51.7%	676,081.70	34.1%	446,533	3.4%	44,758
	전남	1,565,736		86.3%	1,351,856		51.7%	698,369.05	34.1%	461,253	3.4%	46,233
기타	강원	1,269,208	1,759,886	85.0%	1,078,827	1,481,772	44.9%	483,961.70	31.3%	337,673	8.9%	95,800
	제주	490,678		82.1%	402,945		46.0%	185,274.01	27.7%	111,696	10.4%	41,745
계		41,951,015	41,951,015	83.2%	34,915,678	34,915,678	43.8%	15,291,473	31.5%	10,987,344	9.8%	3,409,845

3.보정투표층기준

권역	지역	20대총선 선거인수	권역별 선거인수	종합(2)	투표수	권역별 투표수	문재인	득표수	안철수	득표수	홍준표	득표수
수도권	서울	8,427,412	20,768,183	79.1%	6,666,926	16,430,944	43.2%	2,881,445.26	32.6%	2,174,751	8.9%	593,356
	경기	9,969,097		79.1%	7,887,550		46.8%	3,691,373.19	30.6%	2,410,435	6.4%	503,226
	인천	2,371,674		79.1%	1,876,468		46.8%	878,187.24	30.6%	573,449	6.4%	119,719
PK	부산	2,952,212	6,597,402	79.5%	2,347,894	5,246,914	42.7%	1,002,081.25	28.8%	677,133	15.8%	370,967
	울산	933,463		79.5%	742,383		42.7%	316,849.12	28.8%	214,103	15.8%	117,297
	경남	2,711,727		79.5%	2,156,636		42.7%	920,452.45	28.8%	621,974	15.8%	340,749
TK	대구	2,024,624	4,258,236	76.7%	1,553,696	3,267,770	28.1%	436,277.97	33.2%	515,516	19.5%	303,592
	경북	2,233,612		76.7%	1,714,074		28.1%	481,311.94	33.2%	568,730	19.5%	334,930
충청권	대전	1,213,250	4,330,911	77.9%	944,879	3,372,913	44.6%	421,038.13	32.0%	302,550	9.1%	85,984
	충북	1,281,557		77.9%	998,077		44.6%	444,742.93	32.0%	319,584	9.1%	90,825
	충남	1,670,478		77.9%	1,300,968		44.6%	579,711.46	32.0%	416,570	9.1%	118,388
	세종	165,626		77.9%	128,990		44.6%	57,477.73	32.0%	41,302	9.1%	11,738
호남권	광주	1,154,893	4,236,397	82.1%	947,705	3,476,387	51.7%	489,584.50	34.1%	323,357	3.4%	32,412
	전북	1,515,768		82.1%	1,243,839		51.7%	642,567.34	34.1%	424,398	3.4%	42,539
	전남	1,565,736		82.1%	1,284,843		51.7%	663,749.87	34.1%	438,388	3.4%	43,942
기타	강원	1,269,208	1,759,886	79.8%	1,012,574	1,394,273	44.9%	454,240.76	31.3%	316,936	8.9%	89,917
	제주	490,678		77.8%	381,698		46.0%	175,504.93	27.7%	105,807	10.4%	39,544
계		41,951,015	41,951,015	79.1%	33,189,201	33,189,201	43.8%	14,536,596	31.5%	10,444,984	9.8%	3,239,124

◈ 문재인 후보는 이제 남은건 TK까지 1위를 해서 전국을 푸른색으로 뒤엎는건 정도랄까요? 모든 지역에서 안정적으로 40%이상 나오는데 다자구도에서 40%이상이라는 것은 어지간하면 1위를 한다는 소리죠.

◈ 안철수 후보는 연령별도 그렇지만 정말 답이 없네요. 보수적인 색채를 강화하니 호남이 떨어지고 게다가 승리할 확률이 떨어지니까 TK의 지지율이 내려가고 있습니다. 지금 전 지역 중 TK에서만 앞서지만 겨우 5% 수준이고 나머지 지역은 호남 포함해서도 거진 모두 10% 이상 뒤쳐진 것으로 나오는데 답이 없네요.

◈ 홍준표 후보는 본격적으로 자유한국당의 본거지인 TK부터 PK까지 영남권부터 지지세를 회복하고 있습니다. 이게 영향을 준다면 수도권까지도 영향이 가능하지 않을까 싶네요.

★ 상당히 재밌는 판세가 되는거 같네요.

★ 단단한 문재인, 날개없는 추락의 안철수, 기반을 다지고 올라갈 준비를 마친 홍준표 로 구분할 수 있을겁니다.

이상으로 4월 3주차의 주요여론조사들에 대한 분석을 모두 마치겠습니다.