상품DB/베트남 급결제 시장동향(2014.12)/시멘트용ㆍ모르타르용 및 콘크리트용의 조제첨가제

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제목	베트남 급결제 시장동향(2014.12)
게시일	2016-03-17	국가	베트남	작성자	김주선(하노이무역관)
품목	시멘트용ㆍ모르타르용 및 콘크리트용의 조제첨가제
품목코드	382440
작성일자: 2014.12.23 작성자: 하노이 무역관 Chu Thanh Hai(Chuthanhhai67@gmail.com) 1. Vietnamese Construction Industry □ Overview of Vietnamese Construction Industry  ○ According to 2013 preliminary data of the General Statistics Office (GSO), the Vietnamese construction sector has directly and indirectly created employment for over 3.4 million workers (accounting for 5.2% of the national workforce); and contributed 5.4% of the gross domestic product (GDP), ranking fifth after the agriculture, manufacturing, retail and mining sectors. On the other hands, gross output of construction sector has continuously grown and reached VND 770.4 trillion (USD 36.6 billion) in 2013, which present a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% from 2005 to 2013. Of which, the private sector plays a major role in driving the industry's growth. This sector holds the largest proportion in gross output of the construction industry with 84% in 2013. Figure 1: Gross Output of Vietnamese Construction Sector in Period 2005-2013                         Unit: Billion USD                Source: General Statistics Office (GSO)  ○ The private sector does not only invest in the residential construction segment but also penetrates the infrastructure segment via built-transfer (BT) and built-operation-transfer (BOT). Also, in years that the real estate market slumped and the world economy was stagnant, the private sector and the foreign invested sector were still encouraged to invest in infrastructure and public welfare.  ○ The gross output of the state sector in the period from 2005 to 2013 declined at a CAGR of negative 3.5% due to the policy of reducing public investment and monetary tightening by the government after the financial crisis in 2008, together with increasing national debt. The private sector slowed down from 2009 to 2012 as the residential market freezed but still reached a CAGR of 14.4%. Foreign invested sector increased steadily at a CAGR of 9.7% as the government has more preferential policies for this sector. □ Technology has improved dramatically  ○ Overall, after 25 years of integration, local contractors have made great strides in terms of capacity, including financial and technology and human resources. Many local contractors have demonstrated this by successfully implementing large EPC contracts (including design, equipment supply and the processing of construction), creating confidence for all domestic and foreign investors.  ○ State-owned enterprises (SOEs), particularly famous contractors such as LICOGI, VINACONEX, COFICO and Song Da, have been rising strongly in the segments of industrial, residential and transport infrastructure. The private sector with Cotec Construction JSC - Coteccons (CTD), HoaBinh Construction & Real Estate Corporation (HBC), Thai Son Group, Tasco, etc has managed to compete with international contractors. In the past, building an apartment with 15-20 floors and 1-2 basements often confused local contractors. However, local contractors, especially leading ones in the nation such as CTD and HBC, are competent to provide houses with even 40-45 floors (not to mention projects which require specialized engineering and machinery equipment that Vietnam does not have and needs from foreign tenders).  ○ Construction of transportation infrastructure has been successfully conducted by local contractors, such as large bridge projects of Bai Chay Bridge, My Thuan Bridge and many railroads, ports, airports, etc which could not be implemented previously. For large industrial projects such as Bim Son Cement Plant, Song Da Hydropower plant, thermal power plants of 750-1200 MW, petrochemical projects, etc Vietnam has hired foreign experts to guide in management, practice and technology aspects, from which, local workforce can gradually master the technology and take over the projects. □ Local Firms and Local Contractors  ○ According to the Vietnam Association of Construction Contractors (VACC), local contractors could fulfill requirements of technology to carry out sizable projects but they often failed to seize projects that require large capital investment due to financial constraints. The private contractors regularly have limited funds. The financial sources of large contractors are sufficient but controlled by the government; therefore, the utility of these funds must be approved by an extended procedure which takes time. In addition, local investors and contractors do not take grant from tax and credit policy while foreign contractors can reap incentives from tax policy, credit policies, exchange rate etc., which leads to inequalities in tender participation.  ○ Besides, most of local contractors are unable to be primary contractors in major ODA projects although ODA is increasingly important for the infrastructure development of Vietnam. However, the principle of ODA projects is that primary contractors must come from the sponsor country while Vietnam only provides the subcontractors. This is a requirement for ODA’s projects, if it is unfulfilled the loan would not be disbursed.  ○ Recently, a various number of highway projects have been lack of local contractors or they are only permitted to work as subcontractors for foreigners such as Noi Bai-Lao Cai highway (8 construction packages and Korea took up 6), Ha Noi-Hai Phong highway, Ho Chi Minh City-Long Thanh-DauGiay highway, with almost all the main construction packages undertaken by foreign contractors. Many other major ODA projects were mainly assigned to international contractors, namely Nhat Tan, Can Tho, Thanh Tri Bridge and project of improving safety for railway from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City, Ring Road III (phase 2), etc. □ Construction Cost in Vietnam  ○ According to statistical survey results for the construction market in Southeast Asia from Davis Langdon & Seah – a leading consulting company in the construction cost of Singapore, Vietnam‘s overall average construction cost in 2013 is lower than most other countries in Southeast Asia and nearly equivalent with Indonesia. Table 1: Comparison of Construction Cost Between Vietnam and Other Regional Countries            Source: Davis Langdon &Seah Vietnam 2013  ○ In general, Vietnam construction market has comparative advantage over other markets within the region due to lower construction and labor costs. The technological capacity of local contractors has improved considerably from the pre-integration period. However, the sector has also suffered from various weaknesses that government and the private sector must work together to improve such as: Declining labor productivity in recent years; Financial constraints driving domestic contractors to assume the role of subcontractors for international firms; Most material, construction equipment and machinery depend on import; Shortfall of capital for infrastructure development and lack of private sector interest to participate in this segment because the legal framework for investment cooperation under public-private partnerships (PPP) has not been completed; High bad debt ratio makes lenders more cautious about the construction sector. 2. Demand Trend for Accelerator for Concrete/Shotcrete  ○ The demand for accelerator for concrete has a close relation to the production capacity of concrete industry. Therefore, to indicate the overall look of accelerator for concrete in Vietnam and the demand for it, firstly, this report will give information and statistic of concrete market in Vietnam. □ Vietnamese Concreate Market  ○ Market Demand   - With the strong urbanization and the total estimated investment of US$ 78 bn (according to statistic released by Business Monitor International’s report) required for the infrastructure projects, Vietnamese construction industry is assessed to be in the period of growth. The projects range from new water and sanitation infrastructure to new roads and traffic systems, and will take place in 15 provinces around the country. For the forecasted average growth rate of 8.5% per year of construction market, alternatively, the auxiliary industries including building materials will increase sharply in the coming years.   - There is no an official statistic of concrete demand in the market. In general view about the practical situation happening in Vietnam construction market, among the building materials, the usage of ready-mixed concrete (RMC) is eval‎uated to be low in comparison with the usage of other materials. Meanwhile, the usage rate of industrial concrete into construction works is the criterion to industrialize the construction industry. RMC is irreplaceable in building the construction structures and infrastructure works. That’s because the Vietnamese construction are still depending on “small bags of cement” and mixing it up in the site. Hence, in terms of usage, that’s very low, so expectedly there’s actually some growth potential.  ○ Local Production   - There are no data recording the production capacity statistic in manufacturing any kind of concrete in Vietnam. Presently, in Vietnam there are about 117 units dealing with concrete (in include of mixing concrete, manufacturing fresh concrete and ready-mixed concrete). Averagely, each unit owns 4-6 stations or plants. The highest capacity in manufacturing concrete at plant is 360㎥/h and at station, 60㎥/h.   - Some plants are also facing a huge problem of overloading in Vietnam and it is something that takes very seriously. Local manufacturing tends to move away from old technology tankers and to consider a big potential for aluminum tankers with a bigger capacity.   - In the recent years, the advanced types of concrete applied in Vietnam include: High Performance Concrete (HPC), Self - Compacting Concrete (SCC), Steel Fiber Concrete, Roller Compacted Concrete (RCC) and Concrete for Marine structures. In addition in Vietnam, Rice Husk Ash (RHA) has also been studied to be used for production of these types of concrete.   - HPC – HIGH PERFORMANCE CONCRETE    · Local companies have studied producing high - slump concrete with grade of 100MPa using either PC 40 or PCB 40. In fact, almost successfully produced precast elements of 80MPa; the tube piles and in-place structural elements of 60MPa were also cast. Concrete with strength up to 60MPa has been used for precast elements, columns and beams of the lower stories of high-rise buildings, for water supply piping system, bridge girders and abutments/piers, as well as for elements that are the load-bearing ones in addition to waterproofing. For the time being, concrete with the strength of 60MPa can be easily produced at the commercial ready – mixed concrete stations (plants) in the routine production conditions. Concretes with high slump, from 14-26㎝, were produced as well.    · Some element used to replace for the portion of cement in concrete like granular coal ash, the waste discharged from the metallurgical industry are imported from Japan.   - SELF – COMPACTING CONCRETE    · The Vietnam Institute for Building Science and Technology (IBST) has studied the production of SCC, using the two mentioned super plasticizers for the concrete of different grades of strength: 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 MPa. Both cement types PC and PCB with either Pha Lai thermo-power plant floated coal ash, crushed sand, or lime stone powder as a filler can be used. However, the wide application of this concrete is limited due to the high price of the admixture that makes the price unit of SCC higher than that of normal concrete. For the time being, SCC has been applied to casting bridge girders, structural elements with dense reinforcement, facing concrete such as that used for bridge desk waterproofing such as the lining of Hai Van tunnel.   - SCATTERED FIBER REINFORCED CONCRETE (SFRC)    · At present, two types of this concrete, PPFC (polypropylene fiber concrete) and SFC (scattered steel fiber reinforced concrete), are being applied. The prosperity of application of scattered fiber reinforced concrete (SFRC) to the Vietnam construction field is very high. PPFC with grade of 30 has been applied to the facing of the steps of My Dinh National Stadium. The Vietnam Institute for Building Science and Technology can produce SFC with grade up to 100 and flexural strength of 250daN/㎠ whose slump is 15㎝.   - ROLLER COMPACTED CONCRETE (RCC)    · RCC is considered for widely application to the construction of water works. RCC has been applied for the construction of the 67 m high PlayKrong hydro-power plant’s dam and the 56m high dam of DinhBinh water irrigation. A 2,000㎥ test block of RCC at PlayKrong and another 3,000㎥ test block of RCC were cast at Son La hydro-power plant to check the proportions (grading parameters) of RCC as well as the construction technology. In the near future, the following dams are expected to be constructed with RCC: Ban Ve, A Vuong, Se San 4,Dong Nai 3, Dong Nai 4, Song Tranh 2, Ban Chat, HuoiQuang and, the largest one is the dam of Son La hydro-power plant, which is 135m high with some 3.3 million of ㎥ of concrete.   - Regarding shotcrete in Vietnam, this type of concrete has not been popular. It has been used in Vietnam since 1990s andmainlyapplied to fix, maintain and protect some damaged concrete project such as culverts, tunnels, water tanks etc.Vietnam’s reports did not publish any statistic of shotcrete’s production and consumption but it is certain that the demand for it is not high when compared with other kinds of concrete. This resulted in the demand for shotcrete’s accelerator is also not a positive figure in the previous years. □ Cement Production in Vietnam  ○ Since cement is the most important component to produce concrete and through cement’s production capacity, we can estimate the volume of accelerator for concrete, this report will mainly provide information about the cement market in Vietnam. As a positive signal, the Vietnamese cement market has seen positive results after a long, period, with both domestic cement consumption and exports having increased. According to Vietnam National Cement Association, domestic cement consumption in the first five year of 2014 reached 20.42 million tones, posting a 9.3 percent increase over the same period last year. It is predicted that the domestic cement consumption this year would reach 50 million tones, which would be equal to the amount in 2010, the highest level so far. The forecast for cement exports this year was expected to be 20 million tons.  ○ Besides, many cement companies have also achieved good production and business results in recent times. FiCOTayNinh Cement Joint Stock Company Deputy General Director TrangThanh Ba said that market demand has increased strongly and all plants currently have run at 100 percent capacity.According to statistics, in the first four months of 2014, the company sold 450,000 tons of cement, an increase of 10 percent compared to the same period last year. In terms of the southern market, the company would provide about 1.5 million tons of cement in the whole year.Vicem Ha Tien 1 Cement Joint Stock Company has achieved good production and business results in recent times. Cement consumption in the first five months of this year increased compared to the same period last year. The company plans to sell about 4.9 million tons of cement and about 800,000 tons of clinker in 2014.  ○ However, there were 70 investors who had poured capital into the sector. The number was too high as the country's total cement output has been between 65 and 70 million tons, five to seven times higher than other countries in the region.A number of areas with rich limestone reserves such as Ha Nam, NinhBinh and ThanhHoa, along with QuangNinh and Hai Phong would be advantageous for the cement industry. The location of the cement projects and financial capacity of investors will play a key role in the planning of the cement industry.  ○ The Government has removed nine unfeasible projects from the development plan of the country's cement industry in 2011-2020, as several investors were found incapable of financing their projects. Investors need to spend on advanced machinery and equipment, and contribute towards reducing coal and power consumption. They also need to control environment pollution, improve labour productivity and product quality. Table 2: Vietnamese Cement/Additive for Concrete Production Capacity         Source: General Statistic Office  ○ Along with the current growth status of Vietnamese cement market, it is possible to believe that the additives for concrete would be in a good demand. Because there is no statistic of additive for concrete production capacity released, this report will give the estimated ones based on the statistic of cement and thefollowingformula: additive for concrete accounts for 1-1.5% of cement volume. The result for that is presented on the above table. The average additive for concrete demand of the last five years is approximately 444,565 thousand liters, an increase of seven times compared with the period 1995-1999. □ Accelerator for Concrete/Shotcrete  ○ Although additive for concrete is one of the construction materials which is rarely mentioned, it plays a quite important role in the construction industry. However, in current competitive effort, domestic additive is still dominated by the imported one. This makes many difficulties for Vietnamese manufacturers to find the suitable output way. In the past, additives for concrete is used for short building (200N/㎟) by simple method, thus the demand for it is quite low. Moreover, due to the lack of the habit and knowledge about the concrete’s additive, it was not popularly applied to construction and manufacturing concrete.  ○ In contrast, additive is a very important component of concrete because if there are not additives, the concrete will not be able to meet various technology requirements in modern construction. Especially when manufacturing concrete with high intensity from 40-60N/㎟, it is possible to be done without additive. These elements result in the wide appliance of additive in the field of manufacturing concrete in the factory construction site in the previous years.  ○ The popularity of additive for concrete in current construction industry is due to important contribution of 100% foreign capital companies. In the last 10 years, many local companies have researched and manufactured additive for concrete and the materials used are 90% of imported. Thus, domestic additive for concrete has a high quality and almost has no different quality compared with foreign company’s products. The previous information mention about the most popular kind of additive for concrete(40-45N/㎟).There is one kind of additive for concrete (50-70 N/㎟) which local companies have not overtaken the foreign ones on some technology standards, however, it only accounts for a small market share.  ○ There is a fact that the sales figure not only depends on the quality of product but also the other elements such as the promotion and finance. This is the reason why despite the good quality, the domestic additive for concrete still have a low sales compared with the foreign ones. Studying through some large construction projects, it can be seen that almost kinds of additive for concrete are used by the contractor belong to the brands such as Sika, Mapei, Bash etc. because these foreign companies have many advantages over domestic companies, such as: good marketing policy, well-known brands, large capital. In contrast, most of local companies manufacturing concrete’s additive are under national institute or small scale, thus, they do not have a strong finance potential, a suitable and professional promotion policy to create more market share in the market. Therefore, external additives are used in large construction projects, whereas internal additives are only used for small projects or projects which have private investment capital.  ○ However, the inception of the Vietnamese additive for concrete with a modest market share contributes to prevent the foreign ones from creating the monopoly market and reduce 50-60% price of construction chemical in general and concrete’s additive in particular.  ○ In Vietnam, the most popular concrete admixture is water-reducing admixture. It is the traditional additives used in Vietnam from the1960's which allows reducing water while mixing with the same workability, or increase workability with the same water content. These additives improve the deformation of fresh mortar and concrete. Water-reducing admixture is always organic products which are capable of reducing the surface tension. They lubricate the cement particles, the particles will separate cement and then this dispersion will facilitate the wetting and hydration. Besides, regarding the accelerators for shotcrete, as mentioned above about the shotcrete in Vietnam, this kind of concrete is mainly used for highway, railway, subway, tunnel etc. Therefore, the demand for accelerator for shotcrete depends on the number of projects in the next year including highway, railway, subway, tunnel etc. 3. Vietnamese Transport Infrastructure □ Outlook and Overview Table 3. Vietnam Transport Infrastructure Industry in period 2011-2016         Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office, BMI  ○ The transport sector forms the majority of infrastructure investment in Vietnam throughout the 6-year research period, accounting for 64.4% in 2022. Vietnam still suffers from a significant deficit intransportation infrastructure and it is believed that the Vietnamese government will continue to develop this sectorover the medium term. Since the accelerator for Shotcrete of Silk Road Company is applied to build tunnel, highway, railway, subway etc., this report will focus on statistics of these kinds of transportation. As we can see on the above table, the value of roads, bridges and railways in Vietnam are on the upward trend and contribute a lots to the total infrastructure value. Table 4: Competitiveness of Vietnam’s Infrastructure      Source: World Economic Forum  ○ The quality of Vietnam’s infrastructure sector is ranked at a quite low position compared with other companies and are is far from maximizing the growth potential due to poor trade activity and difficulties in securing project financing. Thus, this sector needs to receive more concern of government as well as the Vietnamese and foreign contractors to boost Vietnam's infrastruction sector will develop well in the next years. This relatively optimistic outlook for Vietnam's infrastructure sector is driven primarily by the country's conducive monetary conditions. The government is seeking to boost economic growth in 2014 and has brought the policy rate down to 8.00% in late-March of 2013, the lowest policy rate since November 2010. With inflation relatively benign thus far, it is expected the Vietnamese central bank to keep monetary conditions conducive throughout 2015. This should be favourable for construction activity as Vietnamese companies would benefit from a lower cost of capital- making them more inclined to take up new projects or carry out capital-intensive construction works - and municipal and provincial governments could also find thenecessary financing for their infrastructure plans. □ List of Major Transport Projects  ○ The following table includes the list of railway, roads, bridge, highway, expressway, tunnel etc., projects which are being under construction and anticipated projects. This table also contains the information about the contractor of each project, including Korean contrator and other contractors as well. Talbe 5: List of Major Transport Projects          Source: Business Monitor International 4. Competition Trends □ Foreign Exporters  ○ Import statistics by HS code 382440 List of supplying markets for a product HS Code 382440 imported by Viet Nam through period 2008 - 2013                                   Unit: USD 1,000         Source: Trade map  ○ Singapore, China and Korea are the top three countries have the biggest imported value of concrete admixture into Vietnamese market with the market share in 2013 are 19.4%, 41.56%, 19.7%, relatively. In general, the imported value in 2013 has slightly decreased by 7.2% compared with the previous year.  ○ Especially for Korea, the average imported value of concrete admixture is US$ 3269 million in 2008-2013 period. In 2013, the figure of concrete admixuture imported value is US$ 3719 million, accounting for 19.7 percent of the total imported value. Figure 2: The imported value of HS code: 382440 (additives for cement, mortar, concrete) in 2013               Source: www.trademap.org