영한_거시경제_박상희

[박상희]

본 연설은 Lisa D. Cook 미국 연방준비제도 이사회 이사가 2024년 6월 25일 뉴욕 경제 클럽에서 통화정책의 시사점 및 균형 개선을 위해 나아가기 라는 제목으로 한 연설을 GPT로 요약한 연설입니다.

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glossary

1. the Economic Club of New York: 뉴욕 경제 클럽

(*사회, 경제 및 정치적 문제에 대한 연구 및 토론을 촉진하는 데 전념하는 미국 비영리 및 초당파 회원 조직)

2. FOMC: 연방공개시장위원회(Federal Open Market Committee)

3. the federal funds rate: 연방기금금리

script

Thank you, Barbara. It’s an opportune time to speak at the Economic Club of New York, as this month marks two years since my first FOMC meeting, where we initiated large interest-rate increases to bring inflation back to our 2 percent target. Over the past year, inflation has slowed, and labor market tightness has eased, bringing our inflation and employment goals into better balance.

I will assess the economy after nearly a year of holding rates at a restrictive level, discussing disinflation, the economic outlook, and ensuring monetary policy returns inflation to 2 percent while managing labor market risks. I’ll also touch on my role as chair of the Board's Financial Stability Committee.

[Inflation]: Post-pandemic, inflation peaked above 7 percent and has since fallen to 2.7 percent in April, with signs of further easing. Food and energy prices moderated significantly, and core goods prices returned to pre-pandemic trends due to improved supply chains. Services inflation, though slower, remains above pre-pandemic rates, particularly in housing services. Non-housing services inflation slowed but stalled at about 3.5 percent. Consumers are pushing back on [u1] price increases, and long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored[u2] . I forecast a continued but uneven disinflation trend, expecting a sharper slowdown next year.

[Labor Market]: The labor market has realigned[u3] , with the unemployment rate at 4 percent in May, up from 3.4 percent in April 2023. Layoffs are low, payroll growth is robust[u4] , and labor force participation has rebounded, especially among women aged 25-54. The job vacancies-to-unemployment ratio[u5]  fell to pre-pandemic levels, and the quits rate [u6] declined, indicating reduced job market churn[u7] . Wage growth, though outpacing inflation, is moderating, and job market indicators suggest a tight but balanced labor market.

[Economic Activity]: The U.S. economy rebounded strongly post-pandemic, with GDP growth easing in the first quarter but private domestic demand remaining solid. Consumer spending shows signs of slowing, with increasing strain on low-to-moderate income households. Investment in equipment and intangibles[u8]  has been strong, potentially boosting productivity. AI technology may also drive future productivity growth, though its full impact will take time.

[Monetary Policy]: The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate[u9]  at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent[u10] , a restrictive stance to curb aggregate demand. With ongoing disinflation and a normalizing labor market, risks to employment and inflation goals are better balanced. We will closely monitor economic data to adjust policy as needed, aiming for a sustainable return to 2 percent inflation without overly restricting economic growth. Potential risks include persistently high inflation or an unexpectedly sharp economic downturn.

[Financial Stability]: The financial system remains resilient post-2007-09 crisis reforms. Asset valuations have risen without significant risk-taking, and household and business debt levels are below pre-pandemic levels. Financial institutions are robust, though some banks face commercial real estate loan challenges[u11] . Overall, the system can absorb future shocks without amplifying them significantly, supporting the Fed’s dual mandate.

Thank you for having me back at the Economic Club of New York. I look forward to our continued conversation.

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 [u1]~에 반발하고 있다

가격인상에 대한 소비자들의 반발이 거세지고 있다

 [u2]장기적인 인플레이션 기대치는 안정적으로 유지되고 있습니다.

(=사람들이 미래 인플레이션(물가 상승률)에 대한 기대가 크게 변하지 않고, 일정한 수준에서 안정적으로 유지되고 있다. / 중앙은행이나 정책 입안자들이 인플레이션을 잘 관리하고 있으며, 시장과 소비자들이 향후 인플레이션이 급격히 상승하거나 하락하지 않을 것이라고 믿고 있다는 것을 시사)

 [u3]재편/재조정 되었습니다.

 [u4]해고율은 낮고 급여 인상률은 견고하다.

 [u5]실업률 대비 일자리 비율

 [u6]이직률

 [u7]노동 시장의 이동성이 줄었다.

In the context of the job market or employment, "churn" refers to the rate at which employees leave their jobs and are replaced by new hires.

 [u8]무형자산

 [u9]The Federal Funds rate is the interest rate the banks agree to pay when they borrow money from each other.

 [u10]Five and a quarter to five and a half percent

(=5.25% and 5.5%)

 [u11]상업용 부동산 대출에 어려움을 겪고있다.