ESPN Men's Col. BB Insider 01/18/06

[Duncan&Kidd홧팅]

Updated: Jan. 18, 2006

Bzdelik's tweaks have Air Force offense sizzling

 

By Ken Pomeroy
Special to ESPN Insider

Five years ago, nobody would have dreamed that a former NBA head coach would be willing to run the basketball program at Air Force -- even those at the Academy.

So, it was a statement on how far the Falcons' program has come that it was able to hire former Denver Nuggets head coach Jeff Bzdelik to replace Chris Mooney in the offseason -- although there was some reason to wonder whether the Bzdelik hire would work out.

The arrival of Air Force to the national scene has been tied to its adaptation of the Princeton offense, introduced by current Princeton coach Joe Scott. Air Force went from an independent to a member of the WAC for the 1981-82 season, and in 14 of the next 19 seasons, the Falcons had three wins or less in conference play. Although the first three seasons Scott's four-year tenure included similar results, the overall improvement since he came still is staggering:

Methodical improvement
	CONFERENCE RECORD
Conventional Offense (1982-2000)	58-250 (.188)
Princeton Offense (2001-05)	30-40 (.429)

The last two seasons (Scott's last and the only season under current Richmond coach Chris Mooney) have produced winning conference records for Air Force -- its first two ever -- and its first NCAA tournament appearance since 1962.

The trademark of a Princeton offense is its slow pace, and Air Force has played at one of the slowest paces in the land in the past five seasons. During the Falcons' NCAA Tournament season of 2003-04, they averaged just 55 possessions per 40 minutes -- by far the slowest in the nation. The second slowest team that season was Princeton itself, at around 59 possessions per 40 minutes. Last season the Falcons' pace was 56.7, slower than every team but Princeton.

All of that brings us back to Bzdelik and why, in some ways, he was a curious hire. In Bzdelik's last full season in the NBA, the Nuggets were the fastest-paced team in the league (according to basketball-reference.com) and, outside of attending a handful of Air Force practices last season, Bzdelik didn't have any experience with the Princeton offense, so there was some reason to doubt how loyal he would be to the methodical system responsible for the Falcons' stunning success.

But Bzdelik was pretty smart. He retained assistant coach Larry Mangino, who has been with the program since Scott arrived five seasons ago, and Mangino has been more or less Bzdelik's offensive coordinator. Although Bzdelik has removed the false motion from Air Force's offense this season, the character of the attack remains the same.

So far this season, the Falcons are averaging 58.7 possessions per 40 minutes. That figure is skewed a little higher by games against a couple of run and gun opponents, Washington and Lamar, but the Falcons' pace still falls in line with Princeton (54.4) and Richmond (56.1), which also runs the Princeton scheme.

The bigger news: Don't be fooled by the lack of points Air Force puts on the scoreboard. On a possession basis, this team is far more potent that any team in the Mountain West Conference -- and any previous Air Force team. The Falcons currently rank eighth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (at 116 points per 100 possessions), right between offensive luminaries Texas and Washington.

Adj. offensive efficiency top 10
RANK/TEAM	POINTS PER 100 POSS.
1. Duke	125.8
2. Villanova	119.4
3. Gonzaga	118.9
4. West Virginia	118.0
5. Boston College	117.6
6. Michigan State	116.1
7. Washington	116.0
8. Air Force	116.0
9. Texas	115.5
10. Florida	115.4

Also worth noting: Air Force shoots the nation's fifth-highest rate of 3-pointers (as measured by 3s taken as a percentage of total field goal attempts) and makes them at 42.7 percent as a team (No. 4 in the nation), which helps the Falcons to a 59.4 percent effective FG percentage (No. 2 in the land). Air Force also gets to the free throw line more than a typical Princeton offense team and converts at a 77.5 percent rate (fifth-best nationally). The Falcons also are in the top 50 in turnover rate, meaning more of their possessions end with shot attempts than most opponents (which is great news, considering how well the Falcons shoot).

The conclusion? This Air Force team isn't just running the same type of system under Bzdelik, it's running it better than ever.

Realize, too, that all of this has come without former WAC co-player of the year, center Nick Welch, who is sidelined for the season with a foot injury. Welch's replacement this season has been 6-foot-10 junior John Frye. How much did Scott and Mooney think of Frye? He played a grand total of 29 minutes in his first two seasons. This season Frye has played 22 minutes -- per game. And although he is much more of a role player than Welch was, he has been a nice find. When Frye has to shoot it, he's been accurate enough (11-for-20 on 3s, 24-for-40 on FGs) that opposing defenses can't ignore him to focus on the more prolific long-range options Air Force has.

When it comes to national coach of the year honors, you might not hear Bzdelik's name mentioned a whole lot. However, what he's doing deserves some praise. He's had the humility to drastically alter his own coaching philosophy and excelled despite losing a star player. There probably aren't too many coaches who could deal with both of these things and still turn out a better product on the court than they inherited.

Ken Pomeroy is the founder of kenpom.com and is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider.