Ten Surprises of 2021

[프란치스코]

미국 블랙스톤 부회장인 바이런(Byron R. Wien)은 매년 놀랄만한 사건 열개를 발표합니다.

서프라이즈란 발생 확율이 일반 투자자들이 볼 때 30% 정도지만, 바이런이 판단하기엔 50% 이상인 사건들입니다. 서프라이즈가 발생하면 시장이나 주가에 큰 영향이 있겠죠?

바이런을 처음 안 것은 1990년대 초, 해외투자 업무를 시작하면서 부터이며, 바톤 빅스(Barton Biggs) 등과 함께 모건스탠리에 근무하면서 제시했던 각종 투자 전략에서 투자 아이디어를 얻곤 했어요. 지금도 마찬가지. 바이런이 제시한 서프라이즈의 성사여부는 중요하지 않습니다. 그의 의견을 참고해서, 내 실전투자를 잘하는게 궁극적인 목적이에요~

Byron Wien and Joe Zidle Announce the Ten Surprises of 2021

Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman together with Joe Zidle, Chief Investment Strategist in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, today issued their list of the Ten Surprises of 2021. This is the 36th year Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening. Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined Blackstone in September 2009 as a senior advisor to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends. In 2018, Joe Zidle joined Byron Wien in the development of the Ten Surprises.

Byron and Joe’s Ten Surprises of 2021 are as follows:

• Former President Trump starts his own television network and also plans his 2024 campaign. His lead program is The Chief, in which he weekly interviews heads of state and CEOs with management styles like his own. His virtual interview with Vladimir Putin draws more viewers than any television program in history.
• Despite the hostile rhetoric from both sides during the U.S. presidential campaign, President Biden begins to restore a constructive diplomatic and trade relationship with China. China A shares lead emerging markets higher.
• The success of between five and ten vaccines, together with an improvement in therapeutics, allows the U.S. to return to some form of “normal” by Memorial Day 2021. People are generally required to show proof of vaccination before boarding airplanes and attending theaters, movies, sporting events and other large gatherings. The Summer Olympics, postponed last year, are held in July with spectators allowed to physically attend.
• The Justice Department softens its case against Google and Facebook, persuaded by the argument that the consumer actually benefits from the services provided by these companies. Certain divestitures are proposed and surveillance restrictions are applied, but the broad effort to break them up loses support, except in Europe.
• The economy develops momentum on its own because of pent-up demand, and depressed hospitality and airline stocks become strong performers. Fiscal and monetary policy remain historically accommodative. Nominal economic growth for the full year exceeds 6% and the unemployment rate falls to 5%. We begin the longest economic cycle in history, surpassing the cycle that lasted from 2010 to 2020.
• The Federal Reserve and the Treasury openly embrace Modern Monetary Theory as their accommodative policies continue. As long as growth exceeds the rate of inflation, deficits don’t seem to matter. Because inflation increases modestly, gold rallies and cryptocurrencies gain more respect during the year.
• Even as energy company executives cut estimates for long-term growth, near-term opportunities are increasing. The return to “normal” increases both industrial activity and mobility, and the price of West Texas Intermediate oil rises to $65/bbl. Rig counts increase and energy high yield bonds rally soundly. Energy stocks are among the best performers in 2021.
• The equity market broadens out. Stocks beyond health care and technology participate in the rise in prices. “Risk on” is not without risk and the market corrects almost 20% in the first half, but the S&P 500 trades at 4,500 later in the year. Cyclicals lead defensives, small caps beat large caps and the “K” shaped equity market recovery unwinds. Big cap tech is the source of liquidity, and the stocks are laggards for the year.
• The surge in economic growth causes the 10-year Treasury yield to rise to 2%. The yield curve steepens, but a concomitant increase in inflation keeps real rates near zero. The Fed wants the strength in housing and autos to continue. As a result, it extends the duration of bond purchases in order to prevent higher rates at the long end of the curve from choking off credit to consumers and businesses.
• The slide in the dollar turns around. The post-vaccine strength of the U.S. economy and financial markets attracts investors disenchanted with the rising debt and slower growth of Europe and Japan. Treasurys maintain a positive yield and the carry trade continues.

“Also Rans”

Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten, because we either do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or we are not comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.”

• Cyber-attacks, mostly from Eastern Europe and the Middle East, begin to have an economic impact. Bank account information is invaded and distorted, patient records are lost at hospitals and credit collection companies can’t keep track of customer purchases. Those tampering prove to be more skillful than those protecting the integrity of the data and the dislocation cost becomes significant.
• Tesla acquires a major global auto manufacturer in a transaction that involves a combination of cash and stock. Elon Musk is the CEO and pledges to eliminate the internal combustion engine by the end of the decade.
• Kim Jong-un threatens to explode his latest long-range missile, capable, he says, of reaching Los Angeles. Trump invites him onto TV and explains that Kim will be a better person and the world will be a better place if he works with other countries rather than threatening them. Kim agrees to stop testing long-range missiles. Trump looks into the camera and says, “People say I am the best negotiator.”

(인용: Blackstone)