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(Jan 6, 2019) Weekly Topics of Global Economy
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1. USjobsgrowthjumpsinDecember. BBC News
- 미국의 12월중 고용보고서(노동성, 4일)에 따르면, 월중 고용이 예상(177천명)보다 훨씬 많은 312천명에 달하였습니다.
실업률은 3.9%로 전월대비 0.2%p 상승했지만 여전히 50년내 최저 수준이고, 특히 시간당 평균임금 상승률이 3.2%(연율)로 전월보다 다시 0.1%p 상승.
고용이 호조임에도 실업률이 상승한 것은 경기 호조로 더 많은 사람이 일자리를 찾아 나섰기 때문(즉, 노동참가율이 상승한 것).
당일 증권시장은 고용 호조 소식에 더해 Jerome Powell 연준 의장의 통화긴축 속도 조절 가능 발언에 힘입어 대폭 상승(Dow 3.3%, S&P 500 3.4%, Nasdaq 4.2%).
<생각>
2018년 미국의 고용 호조(연간 260만명 증가, 2017년 220만명)는 지속된 경기상승에 더해 Trump의 Tax cut과 Government spending 확대가 가세 ->소비 및 투자 증가 ->고용증가 -> 소득증가->소비 및 투자증가->고용 증가로 이어지는 선순환에 의한 것임.
그럼에도 다수 Economist들이 올해 경기악화 가능성을 주장하는 것은 Tax cut과 Government spending효과는 일시적이고 이젠 그 부작용이 나타날 것이라는 논리에 근거하죠. 관건은 그 시기가 언제일 지인데 여러분도 Y=C+I+G+X-M을 decomposition하면서 예측해 보시기 바랍니다.
2. CES2019:Friendlyrobots,oddballcarsandalotofartificialintelligence, CNN
- 세계 최대 가전·IT 전시회인 'CES 2019’((Consumer Electronics Show)가 8일(화)부터 11일(금)까지 미국 라스베이거스에서 열릴 예정임.
금년 CES에는 세계 155개국의 4,400 여 기업이 참가하여, AI Robot, G5(faster internet on phones) 기술, 음성 인식 기술, 자율주행 등 신종 차량, Smart TV 등을 선 보일 예정. 최근 미 중 관계 악화 때문에 중국 업체 비중이 줄었다고 함.
어제(토)부터 기업들이 CES 출품 내용을 PR하기 시작, 정식 개장(8일)하면 좀 더 자세한 내용이 나오겠죠.
<생각>
매년 초 개최되는 CES에서 올해는 어떤 산업에서 신제품이 나올까 하는 기대를 갖죠. 그런데 올해는 CES개막일이 임박했음에도 관련 보도가 별로 나오지 않았음. 아마 Government shutdown, Volatile market movement 등의 heavy issues가 걸린 데다 최근 미국보다 외국(특히 중국)업체들의 참여가 더 많아져 미국인들의 관심이 약화된 탓으로 보임.
Trump대령이 여전히 Board wall에 집착하는 걸 보면서 미국의 앞날이 자못 걱정스러운 데, 한국도 과거 국제산업박람회 자주 개최하고 온 국민이 관심을 기울였을 때 산업이 크게 부흥했던 기억을 새삼 떠올리게 됨
3. PBOCTweaksLiquidityTapAgainasChinaGrowthJittersPersist,
Bloomberg News
- 지난 주말 중국인민은행이 은행의 예금지급준비율(Reserve Requirement Ratio, RRR)을 또다시 1%p 인하하였습니다.
지준율 인하 시행은 2단계로 나눠 1월15일 0.5%p, 1월25일 0.5%p 인하(대형은행의 경우 13.5%가 됨)하게 되는데, 총800bn yuan ($117bn)의 유동성을 시중에 추가 공급할 수 있다고 하는군요.
최근 PMI 제조업 지수가 50이하(contraction)로 하락(2016년초 이래 처음)하고, 상하이 종합지수 지수도 크게 하락(4년내 최저)함에 따라 중앙은행이 prudent monetary policy 범위 내에서 약간의 부양 조치를 취한 것. .
4. China'sOnlineLendingCrackdownMaySee70%ofBusinessesClose, Bloomberg
- 중국 정부의 위험 금융에 대한 철퇴(crackdown on riskier financing)조치로 인해, 중국내 P2P온라인 대출(Peer to Peer on-line loan) 취급 기관(platform)의 수가 작년에 50% 감소(연말 현재 1,021개 잔존)한 데 이어, 올해는 70%나 감소, 300개 정도만 잔존하게 될 것이라고 하는군요(작년 8월이래 신규 진입도 불허)
Shadow banking의 일종으로 폰지 식 사기(Ponzi scheme)가 많아지자 정부가 폐쇄를 서두르는 것. 소형 P2P 대출회사들이 먼저 퇴출한 데 이어 지금은 중형 회사들이 대상.
중국의 P2P 대출 잔액은 2012년 거의 0에서 2017년말 1.22tr yuan 로 급성장한 이래 작년부터 하락.
<생각>
중국경제의 주요 문제점으로 과다 부채 구조가 늘 지적됨. 이로 인해 최근 몇 년간 정부 및 중앙은행은 deleveraging 노력을 경주. 특히 위험하고 규제가 잘 닿지 않는 P2P등 shadow banking분야 감축 노력을 강화.
제 생각에 중국은 서방 선진국들과 달리 정부부채가 상대적으로 적고, 경제성장률이 금리를 상회한다는 점에 비추어 급격한 경제침체가 도래하지 않는 한 해결 가능할 듯.
5. Chinamakeshistoryasthefirsttolandaspacecraftonthefarsideofthemoon, BBC News
- 지난 3일 중국이 ‘창어4호(嫦娥Cháng’é 4)’ 우주선을 인류 최초로 달의 이면에 착륙 시켰습니다.
창어4호는 지난 12월초에 발사 -> 3일간 여행 후 달 궤도 진입 -> 수 주일 달 궤도 선회 -> 1월3일 10:26(북경 시각) 달 이면인 Von Karman 분화구에 touch down.
달의 이면 착륙을 가능케 하기 위해 중국은 작년 5월 달 이면과 지구와의 교신이 가능하도록 통신중계 위성을 미리 쏘아 올린 것. 중계 위성 이름이 작교(鹊桥quèqiáo,오작교 아시죠), 그리고 달에 착륙한 탐사선 이름이 '옥토끼(玉兎·yùtù')입니다. ㅎㅎ
중국의 우주 굴기를 다음주 미 중 무역협상 직전에 과시하네요.
정견만 드림
1. USjobsgrowthjumpsinDecember. BBC News
Employers added 312,000 jobs, far ahead of predictions of 177,000, the Labor Department said.
The unemployment rate nudged higher to 3.9%, but is still near historic lows. Average hourly pay increased at an annual rate of 3.2% - an improvement on last month's 3.1%.
The gains sent US stocks soaring, reversing losses from Thursday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Friday almost 3.3% higher. The S&P 500 rose 3.4%, while the Nasdaq jumped more than 4.2%.
'Forward momentum'
Analysts said the employment surge shows the US economy remains healthy - despite fears of a slowdown that have battered the stock market in recent months.
Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, said the job increases "make a mockery of recession fears ".
"This employment report suggests the US economy still has considerable forward momentum," he said.
Overall, payrolls rose by 2.6 million last year, compared to 2.2 million in 2017, as tax cuts and increased government spending helped to boost the economy.
The robust labor market has encouraged more people to look for work - one reason for the uptick in the unemployment rate in December.
After years of relatively stagnant wages, it has also started to force employers to pay more.
Average hourly pay for private sector workers increased more than 3.1% year-on-year for the last three months of 2018 - the strongest streak since 2009.
US President Donald Trump celebrated the news on Twitter.
Positive revisions
December's rate of hiring far exceeded the roughly 200,000 jobs the US economy has added on average each month over 2018.
The gains largely occurred in fields such as health care, hospitality and leisure, construction, manufacturing, and retail.
New factory jobs in December meant manufacturing ended 2018 with the most jobs added in one year since 1997.
The Labor Department also revised job numbers for October and November, with both month's showing more jobs created than previously thought.
Analysts said the figures may relieve pressure on the Federal Reserve, which has come under fire from critics, including Mr. Trump, over plans to raise rates.
Critics say the higher borrowing costs risk denting economic growth, pointing to warning signs such as the stock market turmoil and a slowdown in manufacturing.
But the Fed has maintained that the economy has absorbed the increases so far without difficulty.
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said such a strong employment report makes it "impossible" for the Fed to back away from rate hikes, assuming the gains continue.
"Ultimately, they will do what the labor market data tells them to do," he said.
2. CES2019:Friendlyrobots,oddballcarsandalotofartificialintelligence, CNN
By HeatherKelly and SamuelBurke, CNNBusiness
Updated 2225 GMT (0625 HKT) January 5, 2019
(CNN) — Robots that keep you company, faster internet on phones, voice controlled everything, and oddball vehicles to replace regular cars. They're just some of the technologies coming to CES 2019, the massive consumer electronics show that takes over Las Vegas for a week every January.
The show floor doesn't technically open until Tuesday, but the announcements start trickling out Sunday evening from different events and press conferences. Expect a mix of products from major technology companies and small startups ranging from the practical, like televisions, to the more unusual, like self-driving vegetable stores.
CNN Business will be there, scouring the show floor for the best, and worst, technology from the 4,400 companies exhibiting this year. Here are some trends that we expect to see.
Artificial intelligence branches out
Sixty companies will exhibit in the show's AI section this year, but the technology will make an appearance in products from almost every category.
"AI is the star of the show, the ingredient in other technology," said Gary Shapiro, president of the Consumer Technology Association.
AI is what makes voice assistants like Alexa tick, and is being used in old and new technologies across industries, even retail. Television companies will try and use AI to improve image quality, while self-driving cars are depending on it to make their products safer and more efficient.
Televisions get bigger and chattier
Major technology players save their biggest announcements for their own orchestrated press events instead of CES. One thing the big companies like Samsung, Hisense and Panasonic do like to show-off in Vegas is televisions. This year look for giant 80-inch sets, better image quality with HDR (high-dynamic range) and MicroLED screens, and some early examples of 8K televisions (though they won't be taking over living rooms anytime soon). Television manufacturers are also expected to add more voice assistants to their products, likely choosing an existing option like Alexa or Google Assistant over building their own from scratch.
5G will get a push toward reality
The wireless industry has been buzzing about 5G for years. The cellular network technology, which is expected to bring faster internet speeds to everything from phones to self-driving cars, will finally start rolling out later this year and nationwide in 2020. At CES, chip-makers and wireless carriers will share more details on 5G potential and how it could change industries in the coming years, eventually supporting speeds up to 10 gigabits per second on smartphones.
China will be on everyone's mind
Trade war, trade war, trade war. Small and large companies are expected to talk to manufacturers about shifting production from China to neighboring Asian countries because of the trade war between the United States and China. Startups, and even publicly traded companies, will try to get a sense of what their peers are doing and where they can duck for cover.
China is going to be a big topic at CES for other reasons too. Look for Chinese companies rolling out more innovation than some of their US competitors, like powerful camera lenses in shrinking devices. There is a new DJI mini gimbal camera that could knock companies like GoPro to its knees.
Google Assistant vs Alexa: Round 2
Last year, Google plastered every imaginable surface in Las Vegas with advertisements for its virtual assistant. The company didn't have any major announcements to make itself. The ads were a shot across Amazon's bow, in a growing competition between the two companies to be the primary voice assistant controlling homes.
This year, Google is going big again, with a larger presence on the show floor and another pricy ad blitz. Amazon and Alexa are also expected to be everywhere at CES, doing a lot of work behind the scenes to push Alexa into more places outside of the living room. One reason the companies are choosing CES is to reach the various hardware and gadget makers looking to integrate a voice assistant into their products.
What's going to be missing?
Every year some sections grow, and some get smaller. Shapiro says previously hyped technology like 3D-printing will have a smaller presence this year. The Design and Source section, which helps connect companies with partners to handle production of their products, often in China, will also be smaller. Part of that change is because of the current US and China relationship.
3. PBOCTweaksLiquidityTapAgainasChinaGrowthJittersPersist,
Bloomberg News
2019년 1월 4일 오후 6:28 Updated on 2019년 1월 4일 오후 9:46
PBOC Tweaks Liquidity Tap Again as China Growth Jitters Persist
Bloomberg News
,
2019년 1월 4일 오후 6:28
China’s central bank took a further step to secure liquidity to the slowing economy, amid investor jitters over the outlook and expectations that more easing moves are in the pipeline.
The amount of cash lenders must hold as reserves will be cut by 1 percentage point, dropping by 0.5 percentage point on January 15 and a further 0.5 percentage point on January 25, the People’s Bank of China said on its website. The cut will release a net 800 billion yuan ($117 billion) of liquidity and will offset a funding squeeze ahead of the Chinese New Year, it said in separate statement.
Data this week also showed a worsening picture for the world’s second largest economy, with a manufacturing gauge falling into contraction, further depressing investor sentiment after a rough 2018. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a four-year low earlier this week, and Apple Inc. shares plunged the most since 2013 after reporting it would miss a quarterly sales forecast because of slowing iPhone sales, especially in China.
"The PBOC is reacting to the recent deterioration of the economic environment," said Stefan Grosse, an economist at Nord LB in Hanover, Germany. "The weak PMI in China as well as the ISM PMI manufacturing in the U.S. point to a slowdown of the global economy. Expect more governmental stimulus to come."
The offshore yuan pared gains slightly to trade 0.1 percent higher at 6.8763 per dollar as of 6:30 p.m. local time. Hang Seng and Nikkei futures rose.
The latest reduction is the first all-inclusive required reserves cut since March 2016. It reduces the rate for major banks to 14 percent from Jan. 15 and 13.5 percent from Jan. 25. China’s top leaders have pledgedto keep monetary policy prudent while striking an "appropriate" balance between tightening and loosening in 2019, as part of a broader effort to ratchet up stimulus to support growth.
‘Targeted’ Easing
Today’s cut is still "targeted" easing rather than wide-ranging stimulus, the PBOC said, adding that its “prudent monetary policy stance hasn’t changed.” Implementing the cut in two phases ensures “overall banking liquidity stays reasonable and sufficient while balancing internal and external factors to keep the yuan’s exchange rate at a reasonable and equilibrium level,” it said.
The PBOC had cut reserve requirement ratios for some banks four times in 2018, and recently introduced a targetedversion of its Medium-Term Lending Facility to supply lower-cost funding to banks, a move analystsseeas a toned-down version of broad rate cut.
“This may in part be a reaction to the bad PMI data and the equity market sell-off we have seen," said Michelle Lam, a greater China economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. “They’re trying to restore market confidence and need to ease credit conditions to boost lending to the private sector and because of high seasonal demand for cash.”
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell into contraction territory last month, the weakest since early 2016. Early indicators for December signal the economic slowdown is deepening, after official data showed industrial production growth was the weakest in a decade and industrial profits fell for the first time in almost three years in November.
Stimulus Pledge
Chinese financial stocks surged Friday as Premier Li Keqiang visited the nation’s biggest banks and pledged more support for the economy. Li said China will strengthen the scale of its counter-cyclical adjustments of macro policies and further cut taxes, while urging banks to take full advantage of tools including reserve ratio cuts, and to support private and small businesses’ financing needs.
Confirmation that U.S. and Chinese negotiators will meet in Beijing next week for two days of trade talks also helped boost Chinese stocks on Friday. Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish will lead a delegation to meet Chinese counterparts, China’s commerce ministry said in a statement. It will be the first time the two sides have met formally since Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day truce in Argentina last month.
ReadMore:ChinaFinancialStocksSurgeasLiKeqiangVisitsBigBanks
At the same time, there’s not much evidence so far that the targeted, moderate stimulus strategy that Beijing has followed since mid-2018 is doing much to revive confidence in the outlook.
“How much can this help the economy remains to be seen,” said Tao Dong, vice chairman for Greater China at Credit Suisse Private Banking in Hong Kong. “The central bank has been handing liquidity to the banks, but the banks are unwilling to lend. This is a classic case of banking dis-intermediation amid the down cycle.”
4. China'sOnlineLendingCrackdownMaySee70%ofBusinessesClose, Bloomberg
By AlfredLiu
2019년 1월 2일 오후 12:15
The number of Chinese peer-to-peer lenders may drop by 70 percent this year, a research firm that tracks the industry says, as the nation intensifies a crackdown on riskier forms of financing.
As few as 300 companies will remain by the end of the year, according to an estimate from Shanghai-based Yingcan Group. The number of operators dropped by more than 50 percent to 1,021 during 2018, it said, adding that there’s been no new entrants into the market since August.
Chinese leaders are dramatically shrinking a market that spawned the nation’s biggest Ponzi scheme, protests in major cities, and life-altering losses for thousands of savers. Authorities are planning to wind down small- and medium-sized P2P lending platforms nationwide, people with knowledge of the matter had earlier said.
Read: China Is Said to Plan Purge of a $176 Billion Loan Market
Winter Is Coming
China's online peer-to-peer lending weakens as crackdown deepens
Yidai is the latest to exit the business. It has about 32,000 lenders with an outstanding principal balance of 4 billion yuan ($581 million), and expects to repay them within five years, Yidai said in statements in recent days.
Yidai, which received investment from SoftBank China Venture Capital in 2014, said it was affected by panic spreading among individual lenders that shrank transaction values and triggered defaults. Some senior executives aren’t allowed to leave the country, it said in the statement. Yidai and SoftBank didn’t immediately reply to calls and emails seeking comments.
P2P platforms comprise one of the riskiest and least regulated slices of the shadow banking system in China. The lack of oversight has allowed for world-beating growth, with outstanding P2P loans ballooning from almost nothing in 2012 to 1.22 trillion yuan in December 2017.
5. Chinamakeshistoryasthefirsttolandaspacecraftonthefarsideofthemoon, BBC News
MichaelSheetz | @thesheetztweetz
Published 11:36 PM ET Wed, 2 Jan 2019 Updated 18 Hours Ago
China successfully landed the Chang'e 4 spacecraft on the far side of the moon on Thursday morning, Beijing time, accordingtostatenewsagencyXinhua, becoming the first in history to touch the lunar surface unseen by those on Earth.
The Chang'e 4 mission launchedinearlyDecember. It took the spacecraft three days to travel to the moon, where it spent the last few weeks in orbit preparing for touch down on the Von Karman crater. The crater is a relatively flat spot on the moon's far side.
"China's Chang'e-4 probe softlands on Moon's far side," the state news agency tweeted on Thursday.
Citing the China National Space Administration, Xinhua said the space probe, made up of a lander and a rover, "landed at the preselected landing area on the far side of the moon at 10:26 a.m. Beijing Time."
Landing on the far side is a technical challenge, as there is no direct way to communicate with the spacecraft as it nears its target. China put a relay satellite in orbit around the moon in May to overcome that communication challenge.
The far side of the moon has been seen and mapped before, even by astronauts of the Apollo missions. But the successful landing of Chang'e 4 represents the first time any spacecraft has touched down on the moon's far side.
Chang'e 4 represents one of the flagship parts of China's heavy investment and growing capabilities in space through the China National Space Administration. This mission comes about two years after China's successful Chang'e 3 mission, the first soft landing on the moon since 1976. Similar in design to that Chang'e 3 craft and its "Jade Rabbit" rover, the Chang'e 4 lander and rover carries a bigger payload and more capabilities. The space agency will use the craft to study geological conditions on the far side of the moon.
The Chang'e name comes from the Chinese goddess of the moon. In the ancient tale, Chang'e flew to the heavens after taking an elixir, and landed on the moon as her final resting place.
WhytheUSwouldneverwinatradewarwithChina, CNN Business
By Kristina Hooper for CNNBusiness Perspectives
Updated 1522 GMT (2322 HKT) January 3, 2019
(Kristina Hooper is chief global market strategist at Invesco. The opinions expressed in this commentary are her own.)
Over the last several decades, lower tariffs and relaxed trade barriers strengthened global supply chains and fueled a major increase in global trade. In fact, the average rate of tariffs on imports by WorldTradeOrganization members declined from slightly more than 12.74% in 1996 to 8.8% in 2016. Global trade went from $5 trillion in 1996 to $19 trillion in 2013.
We are now moving backward. In its efforts to achieve what it believes to be fair trade, the United States has started trade disputes with several different economies. Its conflict with China is by far the most intense, resulting in a series of additional tariffs. Some people believe that because America is the net buyer and China is the net seller in their trade relationship, China will lose the trade war and ultimately surrender. I believe that's wrong.
Tariffs will hurt both countries. Many tariffed products can't easily be substituted, so they will continue to be purchased — just at higher prices. When a tariff is applied to a particular good, one of three things can happen.
Profits suffer
In some industries, companies will be unwilling or unable to pass the cost onto its customers. This means the company's profits are reduced. For public companies, this of course hurts earnings — and therefore could also impact stock prices.
Read More
At first blush, for instance, one would assume that Alcoa, a US company, would benefit from tariffs on foreign producers of aluminum, but it's not that simple. Alcoa's input costs have risen because it utilizes a significant amount of primary aluminum from Canada, which it smelts to produce its own aluminum. The CEOofAlcoa has eloquently argued that not only do tariffs hurt profitability, they distort the market and make it less efficient "by incentivizing the restart of aged, inefficient capacity" in the United States.
Prices rise
A company may pass the cost of tariffs to its customers (as Apple, for example, hassuggested it would do) and consumers pay more for the same item. This means that, all else being equal, they have less money left to spend on other goods or services.
Demand declines
A company may pass the cost of tariffs to its customers, but demand decreases because consumers cut back their purchases. We have already begun seeing "demand destruction" in an industry that was one of the first to experience the imposition of tariffs at the start of 2018: washingmachines. The same thing could happen to other items, including other "big ticket" purchases such as cars, if tariffs are applied to them.
Tariffs have other negative effects. They undermine business confidence by increasing policy uncertainty. Tariffs can create inefficiency and lower productivity.
The United States has legitimate issues with China — valid concerns about access to markets and intellectual property violations. However, it should pursue them with the World Trade Organization, not through tariffs. Using tariffs only opens it up to retaliation from China. And China has a large arsenal of weapons, beyond tariffs, that it can use against the United States. Following are just a few of these potential weapons.
The good news is that the two countries have agreed to a temporary cease fire in their trade battles. But it's not at all clear whether they will be able to work out a resolution.
The bottom line is that, given President Xi's status as president for life, China can play a long game. President Trump has a reelection campaign to worry about in less than two years. I assume that Xi will attempt to ride out the current conflict without making any significant concessions and that the United States, once its economy is damaged enough, is likely to ultimately capitulate.