McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2024

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McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2024

July 16, 2024Report

In the outlook

에 의해라레나 예, 마이클 추이, 그리고로저 로버츠
메나 이슬러 와 함께

공유하다

인쇄

다운로드

구하다

2024년 기업에 가장 중요한 기술 트렌드는 무엇일까요? McKinsey Technology Council의 새로운 분석은 첨단 기술의 채택, 개발 및 산업 효과를 강조합니다.

다운로드

맥킨지 기술 트렌드 전망 2024

전체 보고서(100페이지)

2023년 전반적인 시장 상황이 도전적임에도 불구하고, 첨단 기술에 대한 지속적인 투자는 기업 채택에서 상당한 미래 성장을 약속합니다. 생성 AI(gen AI)는 2022년부터 두드러진 트렌드였으며, 이 기술에 대한 관심과 투자가 엄청나게 증가하면서 로봇공학과 몰입형 현실과 같은 상호 연결된 트렌드 전반에 걸쳐 혁신적인 가능성이 열렸습니다. 금리가 상승한 거시경제 환경이 자본 투자와 고용에 영향을 미쳤지만, 낙관주의, 혁신, 장기적 인재 수요를 포함한 기본 지표는 우리가 분석한 15가지 기술 트렌드에서 긍정적인 장기적 궤적을 반영합니다.

공유하다

사이드바

올해 분석의 새로운 점은 무엇입니까?

이는 최신 McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook의 결과 중 일부로, McKinsey Technology Council이  오늘날 전개되는 가장 중요한 기술 동향을 파악했습니다. 이 연구는 임원들이 잠재적 사용 사례, 가치의 원천, 채택 동인 및 이러한 기회를 실현하는 데 필요한 중요한 기술을 이해함으로써 미리 계획하는 데 도움을 주기 위한 것입니다.

저희 분석은 관심, 혁신, 투자, 인재에 대한 양적 측정을 검토하여 각 트렌드의 모멘텀을 측정합니다. 이러한 트렌드의 장기적 특성과 상호 의존성을 인식하고, 저희는 또한 각 트렌드를 둘러싼 기반 기술, 불확실성, 의문점도 파헤칩니다. (저희 연구의 새로운 발전에 대한 자세한 내용은 사이드바 "올해 분석의 새로운 내용"을 참조하십시오. 연구 자체에 대한 자세한 내용은 사이드바 "연구 방법론"을 참조하십시오.)

새롭고 주목할만한

2023년에 두드러진 두 가지 트렌드는 세대 AI와 전기화 및 재생 에너지였습니다. 세대 AI는 2022년부터 2023년까지 Google 검색에서 거의 700%나 급증했으며, 구인 공고와 투자도 눈에 띄게 증가했습니다. 기술 혁신의 속도는 주목할 만했습니다. 2023년과 2024년 동안 대규모 언어 모델(LLM)이 처리할 수 있는 프롬프트 크기인 "컨텍스트 창"이 100,000개에서 200만 개로 급증했습니다. 이는 모델 프롬프트에 연구 논문 한 편을 추가하는 것과 약 20권의 소설을 추가하는 것의 차이와 거의 같습니다. 그리고 세대 AI가 처리할 수 있는 모달리티는 텍스트 요약 및 이미지 생성에서 비디오, 이미지, 오디오 및 텍스트의 고급 기능에 이르기까지 계속 증가했습니다. 이는 보다 강력하고 효율적인 컴퓨팅 시스템을 발전시키는 것을 목표로 하는 투자와 혁신의 급증을 촉진했습니다. LLM과 같은 생성 AI를 구동하는 대규모 기초 모델은 다양한 엔터프라이즈 소프트웨어 도구에 통합되고 있으며, 고객 대면 챗봇 구동, 광고 캠페인 생성, 약물 발견 가속화 등 다양한 목적으로 사용되고 있습니다. 이러한 확장이 지속되어 AI 역량의 경계를 넓힐 것으로 예상합니다. 고위 리더의 Gen AI 혁신에 대한 인식은 로봇 공학과 같은 AI 기술에 대한 관심, 투자 및 혁신을 증가시켰으며, 이는 올해 트렌드 분석에 새롭게 추가되었습니다. AI의 발전은 보다 유능한 로봇의 새로운 시대를 열어 더 큰 혁신과 더 광범위한 배포를 촉진하고 있습니다.

공유하다

사이드바

연구 방법론

전기화와 재생 에너지는 경제적 역풍을 이겨낸 또 다른 트렌드였으며, 우리가 평가한 모든 트렌드 중에서 가장 높은 투자 및 관심 점수를 기록했습니다. 이 부문의 구인 공고도 약간 증가했습니다.

많은 트렌드가 2023년에 투자와 고용 감소에 직면했지만, 장기적 전망은 여전히 ​​긍정적입니다. 이러한 낙관론은 분석된 트렌드에 대한 구인 공고의 지속적인 장기적 성장(2021년에서 2023년 사이 8% 증가)과 기업의 지속적인 혁신과 이러한 기술을 활용하려는 관심 증가, 특히 미래 성장을 위해 이러한 기술 활용에 대한 관심 증가로 뒷받침됩니다.

2023년 기술 주식 투자는 자금 조달 비용 상승과 신중한 단기 성장 전망으로 인해 30~40% 감소하여 약 5,700억 달러에 그쳤고, 투자자들은 수익과 마진 잠재력이 강력한 기술을 선호하게 되었습니다. 이러한 접근 방식은 선도적인 기업들이 채택하고 있는 전략적 관점과 일치하며, 첨단 기술을 완전히 채택하고 확장하는 것이 장기적인 노력이라는 것을 인식하고 있습니다. 이러한 인식은 기업이 여러 기술 포트폴리오에 투자를 다각화하고 기술적 경계를 넓힐 가능성이 가장 높은 분야에 선택적으로 집중할 때 분명하게 드러납니다. 많은 기술이 작년에 신중한 투자 프로필을 유지한 반면, Gen AI는 텍스트, 이미지 및 비디오 생성의 상당한 발전으로 인해 투자가 7배 증가했습니다.

공유하다

사이드바

McKinsey의 AI인 QuantumBlack에 대하여

사모펀드 투자의 전반적인 침체에도 불구하고 혁신의 속도는 느려지지 않았습니다. 혁신은 "AI 혁명" 그룹에 속하는 세 가지 추세, 즉 세대 AI, 응용 AI, 머신 러닝 산업화에서 가속화되었습니다. 세대 AI는 비정형 데이터(예: 텍스트 및 이미지)에서 새로운 콘텐츠를 생성하고, 응용 AI는 분석 및 예측 작업에 머신 러닝 모델을 활용하며, 머신 러닝 산업화는 머신 러닝 솔루션 개발을 가속화하고 위험을 줄입니다. 세대 AI에 대한 관심이 확대되면서 응용 AI와 머신 러닝 산업화는 혁신에서 가장 큰 폭의 상승을 보였으며, 이는 2022년에서 2023년 사이에 출판물과 특허가 급증한 데 반영되었습니다. 한편, 전기화 및 재생 에너지 기술은 뉴스 언급과 웹 검색에 반영되어 계속해서 높은 관심을 끌고 있습니다. 이러한 기술의 인기는 글로벌 재생 에너지 용량의 급증, 글로벌 탈탄소화 노력에서의 중요한 역할, 지정학적 긴장과 에너지 위기 속에서 높아진 에너지 안보 요구로 인해 촉진되었습니다.

가장 인기 있는 통찰력

1. 다음에 읽을 책: McKinsey의 2024년 연간 도서 추천
2. 어려운 문제: 에너지 전환의 물리적 현실을 탐색하다
3. 맥킨지 기술 트렌드 전망 2024
4. 디지털 혁신이란?
5. 2024년 초 AI의 현황: Gen AI 도입이 급증하고 가치 창출 시작

인재 환경은 2023년 기술 트렌드에 대한 투자 상황을 대체로 반영했습니다. 기술 부문은 특히 대형 기술 기업에서 상당한 해고에 직면했으며, 우리가 연구한 기술 트렌드와 관련된 구인 공고는 26% 감소했습니다. 이는 전반적인 글로벌 구인 공고의 17% 감소보다 더 가파른 감소입니다. 기술 트렌드 관련 인재에 대한 수요의 더 큰 감소는 매출 성장 예측이 감소하는 가운데 기술 기업의 비용 절감 노력에 의해 촉진되었을 수 있습니다. 이러한 감소에도 불구하고 Gen AI와 같이 강력한 투자와 혁신을 보이는 트렌드는 구인 공고를 유지했을 뿐만 아니라 증가시켜 새롭고 진보된 기술에 대한 강력한 수요를 반영했습니다. 전기화와 재생 에너지는 인프라 지출에 대한 공공 부문 지원으로 인해 부분적으로 일자리가 긍정적으로 증가한 또 다른 트렌드였습니다.

인재 수요의 단기적 변화에도 불구하고, 15가지 기술 트렌드에 걸친 430만 개의 구인 공고에 대한 분석은 광범위한 기술 격차를 강조했습니다. 글로벌 평균과 비교했을 때, 구인 공고에 명시된 수요가 높은 기술 기술을 보유한 잠재적 후보자의 수는 절반도 되지 않습니다. 2022년에서 2023년 사이에 많은 트렌드에서 구인 공고가 전년 대비 감소했음에도 불구하고, 2023년 기술 관련 구인 공고 수는 2021년 대비 8% 증가하여 장기적 성장 가능성을 시사합니다(표 1).

증거물 1

기업 기술 도입 추세

기업 기술 도입의 궤적은 종종 다음과 같은 패턴을 추적하는 S-커브로 설명됩니다. 기술 혁신 및 탐색, 기술 실험, 비즈니스에서의 초기 파일럿, 비즈니스 전반에 걸친 영향 확장, 그리고 결국 완전히 확장된 도입(표 2). 이 패턴은 15가지 기술에 대해 수행된 올해의 기업 도입 설문 분석에서 분명하게 드러납니다. 도입 수준은 산업과 회사 규모에 따라 다르며, 도입을 향한 인식된 진행 상황도 마찬가지입니다.

증거물 2

이미지 설명:

그래프는 기술 동향의 수용 곡선을 1에서 5까지 점수로 나타낸 것입니다. 1은 곡선의 왼쪽 하단에 위치한 최첨단 혁신을 나타냅니다. 2는 최첨단 혁신보다 약간 위에 위치한 실험적 단계를 나타냅니다. 3은 곡선의 위쪽 궤적을 따르는 조종 단계를 나타냅니다. 4는 확장 단계를 나타내며 수용이 증가함에 따라 수직적으로 상승합니다. 5는 곡선의 맨 위에 위치한 완전한 확장 단계를 나타내며 거의 완전한 수용을 나타냅니다.

2023년에는 다음과 같이 수용 곡선을 따라 추세가 배치될 것입니다. 우주 기술과 양자 기술의 미래는 최전선 혁신 단계에 있습니다. 전기화와 재생 에너지를 넘어선 기후 기술, 생명공학의 미래, 모빌리티의 미래, 로봇공학의 미래, 몰입형 현실 기술은 실험 단계에 있습니다. 디지털 신뢰와 사이버 보안, 전기화와 재생 에너지, 머신 러닝의 산업화, 차세대 소프트웨어 개발은 ​​시범 단계에 있습니다. 그리고 고급 연결성, 응용 AI, 클라우드 및 엣지 컴퓨팅, 생성 AI는 확장 단계에 있습니다.

각주: 추세는 특정 산업에 더 관련성이 높으므로 관련 산업 내의 도입보다 산업 전반의 도입이 낮아집니다.

출처: McKinsey 기술 도입 설문 조사 데이터

이미지 설명 끝.

우리는 S-커브의 혁신과 실험 초기 단계에 있는 기술이 양자 기술과 로봇공학과 같이 진보의 선두에 있거나, 생명공학과 우주와 같이 특정 산업과 더 관련이 있음을 알 수 있습니다. 이러한 기술의 채택에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 요인에는 높은 비용, 특수 응용 프로그램, 광범위한 기술 투자와 상당한 선점자 이점을 제공할 수 있는 일부에 집중하는 것의 균형이 포함됩니다.

기술이 인기를 얻고 실험을 넘어서면서 채택률이 가속화되기 시작하고, 기업은 시범 운영과 확장에 더 많이 투자합니다. 우리는 차세대 소프트웨어 개발 및 전기화와 같은 여러 트렌드에서 이러한 변화를 봅니다. Gen AI의 급속한 발전은 분석된 트렌드 중에서 선두를 달리고 있으며, 응답자의 약 4분의 1이 자체적으로 사용을 확장하고 있다고 보고했습니다. 클라우드 및 엣지 컴퓨팅과 고급 연결과 같은 보다 성숙한 기술은 빠른 채택 속도를 유지하여 다른 신흥 기술의 채택을 가능하게 했습니다(표 3).

증거물 3

이미지 설명:

세그먼트화된 막대 그래프는 응답자의 백분율로 2023년 기술 트렌드의 채택 수준을 보여줍니다. 트렌드는 100%를 구성하는 5개 세그먼트로 나뉩니다. 완전 확장, 확장, 조종, 실험 및 투자하지 않음. 트렌드는 완전 확장 및 확장 점유율의 합산 백분율 합계를 기준으로 정렬됩니다. 가장 높은 것부터 가장 낮은 것까지 나열된 이러한 합산 백분율은 다음과 같습니다.

• 클라우드 및 엣지 컴퓨팅은 48%
• 37%의 고급 연결성
• 생성 AI 36%
• AI 적용 35%
• 차세대 소프트웨어 개발 31%
• 디지털 신뢰와 사이버 보안 30%
• 전기화 및 재생에너지 28%
• 27%의 기계 학습 산업화
• 21%의 미래 이동성
• 전기화 및 재생에너지를 넘어선 기후 기술 20%
• 몰입형 현실 기술 19%
• 생명공학의 미래는 18%
• 로봇공학의 미래는 18%
• 양자 기술 15%
• 우주 기술의 미래는 15%

출처: McKinsey 기술 도입 설문 조사 데이터

이미지 설명 끝.

기술 도입을 확장하는 과정에는 사용자 신뢰와 준비성, 비즈니스 모델 경제, 규제 환경, 인재 가용성이 중요한 역할을 하는 유리한 외부 생태계도 필요합니다. 이러한 생태계 요인은 지역과 산업에 따라 다르기 때문에 서로 다른 도입 시나리오가 전개되는 것을 볼 수 있습니다. 예를 들어, 라틴 아메리카의 주요 은행은 북미의 대응 은행과 동등한 수준의 Gen AI 사용 사례를 구축하고 있지만, 제조 부문의 로봇 도입은 자동화를 위한 비즈니스 사례에 영향을 미치는 노동 비용이 다르기 때문에 상당히 다릅니다.

임원들이 이러한 복잡성을 헤쳐 나가면서, 그들은 새로운 기술을 비즈니스 모델에 성공적으로 통합하기 위해 장기적인 기술 도입 전략을 내부 역량과 외부 생태계 조건 모두에 맞춰야 합니다. 임원들은 완전한 도입을 위한 불확실성과 예산 제약을 헤쳐 나가는 동안 적절한 투자 수준에 대한 결정을 내리기 위해 우선순위가 높은 사용 사례에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 생태계 조건을 모니터링해야 합니다(임원들이 모니터링해야 하는 각 트렌드 또는 특정 사용 사례 내의 "전 세계 도입 개발" 섹션 참조). 전반적으로, 장기적인 관점을 취하는 리더들(인재를 키우고, 영향을 찾을 수 있는 곳에서 테스트하고 학습하고, 미래를 위해 비즈니스를 재구성하는 것)은 잠재적으로 무리보다 앞서 나갈 수 있습니다.

The 15 tech trends

This report lays out considerations for all 15 technology trends. For easier consideration of related trends, we grouped them into five broader categories: the AI revolution, building the digital future, compute and connectivity frontiers, cutting-edge engineering, and a sustainable world. Of course, there’s significant power and potential in looking across these groupings when considering trend combinations.

To describe the state of each trend, we developed scores for innovation (based on patents and research) and interest (based on news and web searches). We also sized investments in relevant technologies and rated their level of adoption by organizations.

1

2

3

4

5

250

150

75

Color = adoption level, score

(1 = frontier innovation;

5 = fully scaled)

Size = equity investment, $ billion

The AI revolution

Generative AI

Generative AI describes algorithms (such as ChatGPT) that take unstructured data as input (for example, natural language and images) to create new content, including audio, code, images, text, simulations, and videos. It can automate, augment, and accelerate work by tapping into unstructured mixed-modality data sets to generate new content in various forms.

In 2019, the interest score for Generative AI was 0.01 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.01 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 4. The investment in 2019 was 4 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 4 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Generative AI was 0.64. The innovation score was 0.08. The investment was 36 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by 111 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$36

billion

equity investment,2023

+111%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Aerospace and defense

Agriculture

Automotive and assembly

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Business, legal, and professional services

Chemicals

Consumer packaged goods

Construction and building materials

Education

Electric power, natural gas, and utilities

Financial services

Healthcare systems and services

Information technology and electronics

Media and entertainment

Metals and mining

Oil and gas

Pharmaceuticals and medical products

Public and social sectors

Real estate

Retail

Semiconductors

Telecommunications

Aerospace and defense, Agriculture, Automotive and assembly, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Business, legal, and professional services, Chemicals, Consumer packaged goods, Construction and building materials, Education, Electric power, natural gas, and utilities, Financial services, Healthcare systems and services, Information technology and electronics, Media and entertainment, Metals and mining, Oil and gas, Pharmaceuticals and medical products, Public and social sectors, Real estate, Retail, Semiconductors, Telecommunications,

The AI revolution

Applied AI

Applied AI technologies and techniques use models trained through machine learning to solve classification, prediction, and control problems in order to automate activities, add or augment capabilities and offerings, and improve decision making.

In 2019, the interest score for Applied AI was 0.26 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.49 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 4. The investment in 2019 was 57 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 57 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Applied AI was 0.5. The innovation score was 0.98. The investment was 86 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -29 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$86

billion

equity investment,2023

–29%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Aerospace and defense

Agriculture

Automotive and assembly

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Business, legal, and professional services

Chemicals

Construction and building materials

Consumer packaged goods

Education

Electric power, natural gas, and utilities

Financial services

Healthcare systems and services

Information technology and electronics

Media and entertainment

Metals and mining

Oil and gas

Pharmaceuticals and medical products

Public and social sectors

Real estate

Retail

Semiconductors

Telecommunications

Aerospace and defense, Agriculture, Automotive and assembly, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Business, legal, and professional services, Chemicals, Construction and building materials, Consumer packaged goods, Education, Electric power, natural gas, and utilities, Financial services, Healthcare systems and services, Information technology and electronics, Media and entertainment, Metals and mining, Oil and gas, Pharmaceuticals and medical products, Public and social sectors, Real estate, Retail, Semiconductors, Telecommunications,

The AI revolution

Industrializing machine learning

The industrializing machine learning trend encapsulates a rapidly evolving ecosystem of software and hardware solutions that enable the acceleration and derisking of the development, deployment, and maintenance of machine learning solutions.

In 2019, the interest score for Industrializing machine learning was 0.02 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.13 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 3. The investment in 2019 was 37 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 37 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Industrializing machine learning was 0.04. The innovation score was 0.31. The investment was 3 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -36 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$3

billion

equity investment,2023

–36%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Aerospace and defense

Agriculture

Automotive and assembly

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Business, legal, and professional services

Chemicals

Consumer packaged goods

Education

Electric power, natural gas, and utilities

Financial services

Healthcare systems and services

Information technology and electronics

Media and entertainment

Metals and mining

Oil and gas

Pharmaceuticals and medical products

Public and social sectors

Real estate

Retail

Semiconductors

Telecommunications

Aerospace and defense, Agriculture, Automotive and assembly, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Business, legal, and professional services, Chemicals, Consumer packaged goods, Education, Electric power, natural gas, and utilities, Financial services, Healthcare systems and services, Information technology and electronics, Media and entertainment, Metals and mining, Oil and gas, Pharmaceuticals and medical products, Public and social sectors, Real estate, Retail, Semiconductors, Telecommunications,

Building the digital future

Next-generation software development

Next-generation software development includes tools and technologies that enable modern code deployment pipelines and automated code generation, testing, refactoring, and translation. These can improve application quality and development processes.

In 2019, the interest score for Next-generation software development was 0.03 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.14 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 3. The investment in 2019 was 54 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 54 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Next-generation software development was 0.03. The innovation score was 0.2. The investment was 17 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -37 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$17

billion

equity investment,2023

–37%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Advanced industries

Business, legal, and professional services

Consumer packaged goods

Financial services

Healthcare systems and services

Information technology and electronics

Manufacturing

Media and entertainment

Telecommunications

Advanced industries, Business, legal, and professional services, Consumer packaged goods, Financial services, Healthcare systems and services, Information technology and electronics, Manufacturing, Media and entertainment, Telecommunications,

Building the digital future

Digital trust and cybersecurity

The digital trust and cybersecurity trend encompasses the technologies behind trust architectures and digital identity, cybersecurity, and Web3. These technologies enable organizations to build, scale, and maintain the trust of stakeholders.

In 2019, the interest score for Digital trust and cybersecurity was 0.18 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.11 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 3. The investment in 2019 was 25 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 25 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Digital trust and cybersecurity was 0.41. The innovation score was 0.18. The investment was 34 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -34 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$34

billion

equity investment,2023

–34%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Aerospace and defense

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Consumer packaged goods

Education

Electric power, natural gas, and utilities

Financial services

Healthcare systems and services

Information technology and electronics

Media and entertainment

Pharmaceutical and medical products

Public and social sectors

Retail

Telecommunications

Aerospace and defense, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Consumer packaged goods, Education, Electric power, natural gas, and utilities, Financial services, Healthcare systems and services, Information technology and electronics, Media and entertainment, Pharmaceutical and medical products, Public and social sectors, Retail, Telecommunications,

Compute and connectivity frontiers

Advanced connectivity

Advanced connectivity covers wireless low-power networks, 5G and 6G cellular, Wi-Fi 6 and 7, low-Earth-orbit satellites, and other telecommunications technologies.

In 2019, the interest score for Advanced connectivity was 0.17 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.49 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 4. The investment in 2019 was 37 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 37 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Advanced connectivity was 0.23. The innovation score was 0.63. The investment was 29 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -24 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$29

billion

equity investment,2023

–24%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Aerospace and defense

Agriculture

Automotive and assembly

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Construction and building materials

Electric power, natural gas, and utilities

Financial services

Healthcare systems and services

Information technology and electronics

Media and entertainment

Manufacturing

Metals and mining

Oil and gas

Retail

Telecommunications

Aerospace and defense, Agriculture, Automotive and assembly, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Construction and building materials, Electric power, natural gas, and utilities, Financial services, Healthcare systems and services, Information technology and electronics, Media and entertainment, Manufacturing, Metals and mining, Oil and gas, Retail, Telecommunications,

Compute and connectivity frontiers

Immersive-reality technologies

Immersive-reality technologies enable real-time interactions in three-dimensional virtual worlds (that could incorporate the actual physical world). A virtual world can range from a fully computer-generated space in virtual reality (VR), to mixed reality (MR), all the way to augmented reality (AR), where computer-generated objects are superimposed on the real world. These technologies leverage spatial computing to interpret physical space (for example, by leveraging sensors and cameras such as in a VR headset to recognize gestures) and simulate the addition of data, objects, and people to the virtual world.

In 2019, the interest score for Immersive-reality technologies was 0.09 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.15 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 2. The investment in 2019 was 5 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 5 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Immersive-reality technologies was 0.12. The innovation score was 0.24. The investment was 6 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -36 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$6

billion

equity investment,2023

–36%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Aerospace and defense

Automotive and assembly

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Construction and building materials

Consumer packaged goods

Education

Electric power, natural gas, and utilities

Financial services

Healthcare systems and services

Information technology and electronics

Media and entertainment

Real estate

Retail

Aerospace and defense, Automotive and assembly, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Construction and building materials, Consumer packaged goods, Education, Electric power, natural gas, and utilities, Financial services, Healthcare systems and services, Information technology and electronics, Media and entertainment, Real estate, Retail,

Compute and connectivity frontiers

Cloud and edge computing

Cloud and edge computing refers to workloads that are distributed across locations, such as hyperscale remote data centers, regional centers, and local nodes, to optimize for latency, data-transfer costs, adherence to data sovereignty regulations, autonomy over data, security considerations, etcetera.

In 2019, the interest score for Cloud and edge computing was 0.04 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.14 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 4. The investment in 2019 was 50 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 50 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Cloud and edge computing was 0.05. The innovation score was 0.2. The investment was 54 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -38 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$54

billion

equity investment,2023

–38%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Aerospace and defense

Automotive and assembly

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Business, legal, and professional services

Chemicals

Electric power, natural gas, and utilities

Financial services

Healthcare systems and services

Information technology and electronics

Manufacturing

Media and entertainment

Pharmaceuticals and medical products

Retail

Semiconductors

Telecommunications

Aerospace and defense, Automotive and assembly, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Business, legal, and professional services, Chemicals, Electric power, natural gas, and utilities, Financial services, Healthcare systems and services, Information technology and electronics, Manufacturing, Media and entertainment, Pharmaceuticals and medical products, Retail, Semiconductors, Telecommunications,

Compute and connectivity frontiers

Quantum technologies

Quantum-based technologies make use of the unique properties of quantum mechanics to execute certain complex calculations exponentially faster than classical computers, secure communication networks, and produce sensors with higher sensitivity levels than their classical counterparts.

In 2019, the interest score for Quantum technologies was 0.01 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.02 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 1. The investment in 2019 was 0 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 0 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Quantum technologies was 0.02. The innovation score was 0.04. The investment was 1 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -17 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$1

billion

equity investment,2023

–17%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Aerospace and defense

Automotive and assembly

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Chemicals

Financial services

Information technology and electronics

Pharmaceuticals and medical products

Telecommunications

Aerospace and defense, Automotive and assembly, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Chemicals, Financial services, Information technology and electronics, Pharmaceuticals and medical products, Telecommunications,

Cutting-edge engineering

Future of robotics

The future of robotics covers the advancement of robots from handling fixed-purpose and preprogrammed tasks to being capable of adapting to new, real-life inputs with increasing degrees of autonomy and dexterity.

In 2019, the interest score for Future of robotics was 0.01 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.03 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 2. The investment in 2019 was 3 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 3 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Future of robotics was 0.01. The innovation score was 0.05. The investment was 6 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -20 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$6

billion

equity investment,2023

–20%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Agriculture

Automotive and assembly

Chemicals

Consumer packaged goods

Information technology and electronics

Manufacturing

Metals and mining

Oil and gas

Pharmaceutical and medical products

Retail

Semiconductors

Telecommunications

Agriculture, Automotive and assembly, Chemicals, Consumer packaged goods, Information technology and electronics, Manufacturing, Metals and mining, Oil and gas, Pharmaceutical and medical products, Retail, Semiconductors, Telecommunications,

Cutting-edge engineering

Future of mobility

Mobility technologies cover autonomous and electric vehicles, urban air mobility, and autonomous-driving, connectivity, electrification, and shared-mobility (ACES) technologies, with the aim to improve the efficiency and sustainability of land and air transportation.

In 2019, the interest score for Future of mobility was 0.29 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.19 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 2. The investment in 2019 was 151 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 151 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Future of mobility was 0.49. The innovation score was 0.33. The investment was 83 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -5 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$83

billion

equity investment,2023

–5%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Automotive and assembly

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Electric power, natural gas, and utilities

Financial services

Metals and mining

Oil and gas

Public and social sectors

Retail

Automotive and assembly, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Electric power, natural gas, and utilities, Financial services, Metals and mining, Oil and gas, Public and social sectors, Retail,

Cutting-edge engineering

Future of bioengineering

Bioengineering is the application of engineering principles to biology, utilizing technological advancements to improve health and human performance, transform food value chains, and create innovative offerings.

In 2019, the interest score for Future of bioengineering was 0.13 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.39 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 2. The investment in 2019 was 97 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 97 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Future of bioengineering was 0.14. The innovation score was 0.52. The investment was 62 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -23 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$62

billion

equity investment,2023

–23%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Agriculture

Chemicals

Consumer packaged goods

Healthcare systems and services

Pharmaceuticals and medical products

Agriculture, Chemicals, Consumer packaged goods, Healthcare systems and services, Pharmaceuticals and medical products,

Cutting-edge engineering

Future of space technologies

Space technologies cover satellites, launchers, and habitation technologies that enable innovative space operations and services.

In 2019, the interest score for Future of space technologies was 0.12 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.07 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 1. The investment in 2019 was 5 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 5 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Future of space technologies was 0.17. The innovation score was 0.09. The investment was 9 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -9 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$9

billion

equity investment,2023

–9%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Aerospace and defense

Agriculture

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Telecommunications

Aerospace and defense, Agriculture, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Telecommunications,

A sustainable world

Electrification and renewables

The electrification and renewables trend encompasses the entire energy production, storage, and distribution value chain. Technologies include renewable sources, such as solar and wind power; clean firm-energy sources, such as nuclear and hydrogen, sustainable fuels, and bioenergy; and energy storage and distribution solutions such as long-duration battery systems and smart grids.

In 2019, the interest score for Electrification and renewables was 0.52 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.29 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 3. The investment in 2019 was 160 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 160 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Electrification and renewables was 0.73. The innovation score was 0.36. The investment was 183 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by 1 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$183

billion

equity investment,2023

+1%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Agriculture

Automotive and assembly

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Chemicals

Construction and building materials

Electric power, natural gas, and utilities

Metals and mining

Oil and gas

Real estate

Agriculture, Automotive and assembly, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Chemicals, Construction and building materials, Electric power, natural gas, and utilities, Metals and mining, Oil and gas, Real estate,

A sustainable world

Climate technologies beyond electrification and renewables

Climate technologies (beyond electrification and renewables) center on solutions that mitigate the negative effects of resource consumption on the climate, either by removing CO2 from the atmosphere or by producing existing materials and inputs with lower carbon equivalents.

In 2019, the interest score for Climate technologies beyond electrification and renewables was 0.2 on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 is low and 1 is high. The innovation score was 0.15 on the same scale. The adoption rate was scored at 2. The investment in 2019 was 51 on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 defined as “frontier innovation” and 5 defined as “fully scaled.” The investment was 51 billion dollars. By 2023, the interest score for Climate technologies beyond electrification and renewables was 0.25. The innovation score was 0.2. The investment was 68 billion dollars. Job postings within this trend changed by -11 percent from 2022 to 2023

1

2

3

4

5

adoption score, 2023

(1 = frontier innovation;
5 = fully scaled)

$68

billion

equity investment,2023

–11%

job postings

difference,2022–23

Learn more about this trend

Industries affected

Agriculture

Automotive and assembly

Aviation, travel, and logistics

Chemicals

Construction and building materials

Electric power, natural gas, and utilities

Metals and mining

Oil and gas

Real estate

Agriculture, Automotive and assembly, Aviation, travel, and logistics, Chemicals, Construction and building materials, Electric power, natural gas, and utilities, Metals and mining, Oil and gas, Real estate,

The AI revolution group

The AI revolution group

The AI revolution group

Building the digital future group

Building the digital future group

Compute and connectivity frontiers group

Compute and connectivity frontiers group

Compute and connectivity frontiers group

Compute and connectivity frontiers group

Cutting-edge engineering group

Cutting-edge engineering group

Cutting-edge engineering group

Cutting-edge engineering group

A sustainable world group

A sustainable world group

00.20.40.60.81.0Interest, score (0 = lower; 1 = higher)00.20.40.60.81.0         Innovation,          score

Trends

Generative AI

1

Applied AI

2

Industrializing machine learning

3

Next-generation software development

4

Digital trust and cybersecurity

5

Advanced connectivity

6

Immersive-reality technologies

7

Cloud and edge computing

8

Quantum technologies

9

Future of robotics

10

Future of mobility

11

Future of bioengineering

12

Future of space technologies

13

Electrification and renewables

14

Climate tech beyond
electrification and renewables

15

저자에 관하여

라레나 예 는 맥킨지 베이 지역 사무소의 수석 파트너이고, 마이클 추이는  맥킨지 글로벌 연구소의 파트너이고, 로저 로버츠  는 파트너이고, 메나 이슬러 는 준파트너입니다.

저자는 이 연구에 기여한 다음의 McKinsey 동료들에게 감사드리고자 합니다: Aakanksha Srinivasan, Ahsan Saeed, Alex Arutyunyants, Alex Singla, Alex Zhang, Alizee Acket-Goemaere, An Yan, Anass Bensrhir, Andrea Del Miglio, Andreas Breiter, Ani Kelkar, Anna Massey, Anna Orthofer, Arjit Mehta, Arjita Bhan, Asaf Somekh, Begum Ortaoglu, Benjamin Braverman, Bharat Bahl, Bharath Aiyer, Bhargs Srivathsan, Brian Constantine, Brooke Stokes, Bryan Richardson, Carlo Giovine, Celine Crenshaw, Daniel Herde, Daniel Wallance, David Harvey, Delphine Zurkiya, Diego Hernandez Diaz, Douglas Merrill, Elisa Becker-Foss, Emma Parry, Eric Hazan, Erika Stanzl, Everett 산타나, 지아코모 가토, 그레이스 W 첸, 함자 칸, 하싯 제인, 헬렌 우, 헤닝 솔러, 이안 드 보드, 잭슨 펜츠, 제프리 카소, 제시 클렘프너, 짐 보엠, 조슈아 카츠, 줄리아 페리, 줄리안 세비야노, 저스틴 그리스, 커스틴 하이네케, 키티 라크너, 크리스틴 제닝스, 리즈 그레넌, 루크 토마스, 마리아 포고시안, 마크 파텔, 마틴 해리스 아들, Martin Wrulich, Martina Gschwendtner, Massimo Mazza, Matej Macak, Matt Higginson, Matt Linderman, Matteo Cutrera, Mellen Masea, Michiel Nivard, Mike Westover, Musa Bilal, Nicolas Bellemans, Noah Furlonge-Walker, Obi Ezekoye, Paolo Spranzi, Pepe Cafferata, Robin Riedel, Ryan Brukardt, Samuel Musmanno, Santiago Comella-Dorda, Sebastian Mayer, Shakeel Kalidas, Sharmila Bhide, Stephen Xu, Tanmay Bhatnagar, Thomas Hundertmark, Tinan Goli, Tom Brennan, Tom Levin-Reid, Tony Hansen, Vinayak HV, Yaron Haviv, Yvonne Ferrier 및 Zina Cole.

또한 그들은 Ajay Agrawal, Azeem Azhar, Ben Lorica, Benedict Evans, John Martinis, Jordan Jacobs를 포함한 McKinsey Technology Council의 외부 멤버들에게 통찰력과 관점에 감사를 표하고 싶어합니다.

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이 대화형 콘텐츠를 생생하게 만들어 준 McKinsey Global Publishing의 동료인 Barr Seitz, Diane Rice, Kanika Punwani, Katie Shearer, LaShon Malone, Mary Gayen, Nayomi Chibana, Richard Johnson, Stephen Landau, Victor Cuevas에게 특별히 감사드립니다.

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