ISIS Is Likely Responsible for Nearly 1,000 Civilian Deaths Outside Iraq and Syria

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■ISIS Is Likely Responsible for Nearly 1,000
Civilian Deaths Outside Iraq and Syria

By KAREN YOURISH, DEREK WATKINS and TOM GIRATIKANON

   

Recent terrorist attacks in Paris and the downing of a Russian passenger jet have focused the West’s attention on the Islamic State’s civilian toll outside Iraq and Syria.

Attacks linked to ISIS targeting civilians in 2015, outside Iraq and Syria Circles represent number of deaths

Jan. 2015

April

July

Oct.

Tunisia

Museum

shooting

Yemen

Mosque

bombing

130 dead

Tunisia

Beach resort

shooting

Turkey

Peace rally bombing

Paris

Attacks

paris

Charlie

Hebdo

LIBYA

Hotel

shooting

CAIRO

Embassy

explosion

Egypt

Russian plane 224 dead

Beirut

Bombing

Jan. 2015

April

July

Oct.

paris

Charlie

Hebdo

Yemen

Mosque

bombing

130 dead

Tunisia

Beach resort

shooting

Turkey

Peace rally bombing

Paris

Attacks

Egypt

Russian plane 224 dead

Jan. 2015

April

July

Oct.

paris

Charlie

Hebdo

Yemen

Mosque

bombing

130 dead

Egypt

Russian plane

224 dead

Paris

Attacks

But the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has a history of attacking mosques, hotels, busy city streets and other civilian targets in mostly non-Western countries. If the Islamic State is responsible for the Paris killings and the explosion of the Russian plane, as officials on both sides of the Atlantic seem to believe, the civilian death toll outside Iraq and Syria would rise to nearly 1,000 since January.

It would also signify a major leap in the group’s ability to direct attacks on the West.

Until now, the Islamic State has relied mainly on “lone wolf” followers to strike Western targets with relatively low-tech assaults — shootings, the taking of hostages, hit-and-runs — that draw wide attention but do not cause mass casualties.

“This is much different than a normal lone wolf-inspired attack,” Patrick M. Skinner, a former C.I.A. operations officer now with the Soufan Group, a security consultancy, said about the Paris attacks. “This was choreographed.”

“The fact that they could do this, especially in Paris, where the intelligence service is really good, clearly there’s a hole somewhere,” Mr. Skinner said.

The Islamic State has been expanding beyond its base in Iraq and Syria since it declared a caliphate, or Islamic state, in June 2014. The group is focused on three parallel tracks, according to Harleen Gambhir, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War:

• inciting regional conflict with attacks in Iraq and Syria;
• building relationships with jihadist groups that can carry out military operations across the Middle East and North Africa;
• and inspiring, and sometimes helping, ISIS sympathizers to conduct attacks in the West.

Major events: Attacks directed by/linked to ISIS Attacks inspired by ISIS

“The goal,” Ms. Gambhir said, “is that through these regional affiliates and through efforts to create chaos in the wider world, the organization will be able to expand, and perhaps incite a global apocalyptic war.”

ISIS Declares Provinces Across the Region

SYRIA

AFGH.

IRAQ

LIBYA

PAKISTAN

Algeria

SAUDI

ARABIA

EGYPT

YEMEN

NIGERIA

Countries where ISIS

has declared provinces

The Islamic State has declared official provinces — or wilayat — in areas of Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen that had networks loyal to ISIS, many of which have adopted the organization’s signature brutality.

While it is still unclear to what extent the Islamic State’s core leadership in Raqqa communicates with its affiliates, Mr. Skinner said ISIS command and control was probably involved in picking the target and the timing of the Russian plane attack after its Sinai affiliate told them they had someone who could plant a bomb.

However, Mr. Skinner said, in the wake of the Paris attacks, it is more troubling that ISIS leaders appear to have the ability to direct terrorist cells in distant cities. “It’s a trilogy of terror. They control parts of Iraq and Syria, have wilayats that claim to hold territory, and now they have these cells.”

Major ISIS Attacks

Attacks directed by/linked to ISIS Attacks inspired by ISIS

Descriptions of the Major Attacks

FILTER BY REGION:

All events Asia and Australia Europe Middle East and North Africa North America

Date	Location	Details
Nov. 13, 2015 France	France	President François Hollande blamed the Islamic State for terrorist attacks across Paris that killed more than 100 people. The Islamic State claimed responsiblity. More »
Nov. 12, 2015 Lebanon	Lebanon	ISIS claimed responsiblity for a double suicide bombing that ripped through a busy shopping district at rush hour, killing at least 43 people. More »
Nov. 4, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	ISIS's Sinai affiliate claimed responsiblity for a suicide bombing that killed at least four police officers. More »
Nov. 4, 2015 Bangladesh	Bangladesh	ISIS claimed responsibility for a stabbing and shooting that left one police officer dead and another wounded. More »
Oct. 31, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	An ISIS affiliate in Sinai claimed responsiblity for the downing of a Russian passenger jet that killed all 224 people on board. More »
Oct. 24, 2015 Bangladesh	Bangladesh	ISIS claimed responsiblity for bombings that killed one person and wounded dozens more during a procession commemorating a Shiite Muslim holiday. More »
Oct. 10, 2015 Turkey	Turkey	Two explosions killed more than 100 people who had gathered for a peace rally in Turkey's capital. Turkish officials believe ISIS is responsible. More »
Oct. 6, 2015 Yemen	Yemen	A series of bombings in Yemen's two largest cities killed at least 25 people. More »
Oct. 3, 2015 Bangladesh	Bangladesh	ISIS claimed responsibilty for the shooting death of a Japanese man riding a rickshaw. More »
Sep. 28, 2015 Bangladesh	Bangladesh	ISIS claimed responsiblity for the shooting death of an Italian aid worker. More »
Sep. 24, 2015 Yemen	Yemen	At least 25 people were killed when two bombs went off outside a mosque during prayers to commemorate Eid al-Adha, a major Muslim holiday. More »
Sep. 18, 2015 Libya	Libya	Militants loyal to the Islamic State attacked a prison inside a Tripoli air base. More »
Sep. 2, 2015 Yemen	Yemen	Yemen's ISIS affiliate claimed responsibility for two bombings at a mosque that killed at least 20 people. More »
Aug. 26, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	The Sinai Province of the Islamic State group claimed responsibility for three gunmen who shot and killed two police officers.
Aug. 20, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	An ISIS affiliate claimed responsibility for bombing a branch of the Egyptian security agency. More »
Aug. 12, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	An ISIS affiliate said it had beheaded a Croatian expatriate worker because of Croatia's "participation in the war against the Islamic State." More »
Aug. 7, 2015 Saudi Arabia	Saudi Arabia	ISIS claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing at a mosque that killed at least 15 people, including 12 members of a Saudi police force. More »
Jul. 20, 2015 Turkey	Turkey	A Turkish citizen believed to have had ties to ISIS killed at least 32 people at a cultural center. More »
Jul. 16, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	In what appeared to be the first attack on a naval vessel claimed by Sinai Province, the ISIS affiliate said it destroyed an Egyptian naval vessel and posted photographs on social media of a missile exploding in a ball of fire as it slammed into the vessel. More »
Jul. 11, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	ISIS claimed responsibility for an explosion outside the Italian Consulate’s compound in downtown Cairo that killed one person. More »
Jul. 1, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	Militants affiliated with the Islamic State killed dozens of soldiers in simultaneous attacks on Egyptian Army checkpoints and other security installations in Egypt's northern Sinai Peninsula. More »
Jun. 26, 2015 Tunisia	Tunisia	At least one gunman disguised as a vacationer attacked a Mediterranean resort, killing at least 38 people at a beachfront hotel — most of them British tourists — before he was shot to death by the security forces. More »
Jun. 26, 2015 Kuwait	Kuwait	A suicide bomber detonated explosives at one of the largest Shiite mosques in Kuwait City during Friday Prayer. More »
Jun. 17, 2015 Yemen	Yemen	An ISIS branch claimed responsibilty for a series of car bombings in Sana, the capital, that killed at least 30 people. More »
Jun. 9, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	ISIS's Sinai province claimed responsibility for firing rockets toward an air base used by an international peacekeeping force.
Jun. 5, 2015 Turkey	Turkey	An explosion at a political rally in the predominantly Kurdish city of Diyarbakir killed two people and wounded more than 100. Turkish officials have said ISIS was behind the attack. More »
Jun. 3, 2015 Afghanistan	Afghanistan	ISIS is suspected of beheading 10 members of the Taliban. More »
May. 31, 2015 Libya	Libya	A suicide bomber from an ISIS affiliate killed at least four Libyan fighters at a checkpoint. More »
May. 29, 2015 Saudi Arabia	Saudi Arabia	One week after a similar attack in the same region, a suicide bomber dressed in women’s clothing detonated an explosive belt near the entrance to a Shiite mosque, killing three people. More »
May. 22, 2015 Yemen	Yemen	ISIS claimed responsibility for a bomb attack on a Shiite mosque that injured at least 13 worshipers.
May. 22, 2015 Saudi Arabia	Saudi Arabia	In what appeared to be ISIS's first official claim of an attack in Saudi Arabia, a suicide bomber detonated an explosive at a Shiite mosque during midday prayer, killing at least 21 and injuring 120. More »
May. 3, 2015 Texas	Texas	Two men who reportedly supported ISIS and were later acknowledged by ISIS as "soldiers of the caliphate" opened fire in a Dallas suburb outside a Prophet Muhammad cartoon contest. More »
Apr. 30, 2015 Yemen	Yemen	One of ISIS's Yemen affiliates released a video showing the killing of 15 Yemeni soldiers.
Apr. 19, 2015 Libya	Libya	ISIS released a video of militants from two of its Libya affiliates killing dozens of Ethiopian Christians, some by beheading and others by shooting.
Apr. 12, 2015 Libya	Libya	ISIS's Tripoli affiliate claimed credit for a bomb that exploded outside the Moroccan Embassy.
Apr. 12, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	ISIS militants killed at least 12 people in three separate attacks on Egyptian security forces. More »
Apr. 12, 2015 Libya	Libya	ISIS's Tripoli affiliate claimed responsibility for an attack on the South Korean Embassy that killed two local police officers. More »
Apr. 8, 2015 Saudi Arabia	Saudi Arabia	Gunmen opened fire on a police patrol, killing two officers.
Apr. 5, 2015 Libya	Libya	ISIS killed at least four people in an attack on a security checkpoint.
Apr. 4, 2015 Afghanistan	Afghanistan	The Afghan vice president accused ISIS of kidnapping 31 civilians in February.
Apr. 2, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	Sinai's ISIS affiliate killed 13 people with simultaneous car bombs at military checkpoints. More »
Mar. 20, 2015 Yemen	Yemen	An ISIS affiliate claimed responsibility for coordinated suicide strikes on Zaydi Shiite mosques that killed more than 130 people during Friday Prayer. More »
Mar. 18, 2015 Tunisia	Tunisia	ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack on a museum that killed 22 people, almost all European tourists. More »
Feb. 20, 2015 Libya	Libya	ISIS's Derna affiliate claimed responsibility for three car bombs that killed at least 40 people. More »
Feb. 15, 2015 Libya	Libya	ISIS released a video that appeared to show its militants in Libya beheading a group of Egyptian Christians who had been kidnapped in January. More »
Feb. 15, 2015 Denmark	Denmark	A Danish-born gunman who was inspired by ISIS went on a violent rampage in Copenhagen, killing two strangers and wounding five police officers. More »
Feb. 3, 2015 Libya	Libya	ISIS militants were suspected of killing 12 people, including four foreigners, in an attack on an oil field. More »
Jan. 29, 2015 Egypt	Egypt	ISIS's Sinai affiliate claimed responsibility for coordinated bombings that killed 24 soldiers, six police officers and 14 civilians. More »
Jan. 27, 2015 Libya	Libya	ISIS's Tripoli affiliate claimed credit for an armed assault on a luxury hotel that killed at least eight people. It was the deadliest attack on Western interests in Libya since the assault on the American diplomatic mission in Benghazi. More »
Jan. 23, 2015 Lebanon	Lebanon	ISIS attacked an outpost of the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Jan. 12, 2015 Libya	Libya	ISIS's Tripoli affiliate said they were holding 21 Egyptian Christians captive. More »
Jan. 11, 2015 France	France	A video surfaced of Amedy Coulibaly, one of three gunmen who attacked the newspaper Charlie Hebdo, declaring allegiance to ISIS. More »
Dec. 15, 2014 Australia	Australia	A gunman who said he was acting on ISIS's behalf seized 17 hostages in a Sydney cafe. More »
Nov. 22, 2014 Saudi Arabia	Saudi Arabia	A Danish executive was shot in his car. A group of ISIS supporters later claimed responsibility.
Oct. 23, 2014 New York	New York	A hatchet-wielding man charged at four police officers in Queens. ISIS said the attack was the “direct result" of its September call to action. More »
Oct. 22, 2014 Canada	Canada	An Islamic convert shot and killed a soldier who was guarding the National War Memorial in Ottawa, stormed Canada's parliament and fired multiple times before being shot and killed. More »
Oct. 20, 2014 Canada	Canada	A 25-year-old man who had recently adopted radical Islam ran over two soldiers near Montreal, killing one. More »
Sep. 24, 2014 Algeria	Algeria	Militants kidnapped and beheaded a French tourist shortly after the Islamic State called on supporters around the world to harm Europeans in retaliation for airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. More »
Sep. 23, 2014 Australia	Australia	An 18-year-old ISIS sympathizer was shot dead after stabbing two counterterrorism officers outside a Melbourne police station. More »

/  © 2015 The New York Times Company