인도, 세계 4위 경제 대국으로 도약

[청솔]

India Becomes the World’s 4th Largest Economy

May 26th, 2025

Context
- Recently, NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam informed that India has surpassed Japan to become

the world’s fourth-largest economy (nominal GDP), and poised to displace Germany in the next 2.5 to 3 years.

India’s Economic Growth
- India’s nominal GDP has now reached $4.19 trillion, overtaking Japan’s estimated $4.18 trillion.

Largest economies in the world by GDP (nominal) in 2025

according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

- The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report predicts that India aims to continue to be the 

fastest-growing major economy, with a projected growth rate of 6.2% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026. 
Over the past decade, India has doubled its GDP from $2.1 trillion in 2015 to its current level.


Becoming the Third-Largest Economy
- The IMF projects that India will become the third-argest economy by 2028,

with an expected GDP of $5.5 trillion by overtaking Germany.

Germany’s projected GDP growth: 0% (2025), and 0.9% (2026) (due to ongoing global trade tensions).

Key Determinants of India’s Economic Growth
- Expanding Domestic Consumption: India’s economic growth is largely fueled by private consumption,

particularly in rural areas.
Also, the urbanization and lifestyle shifts have led to an increase in consumption-ed growth.

India’s urban population is expected to touch 600 million by 2030.
The demographic dividend is a unique edge—ndia’s median age is just 29 years,

offering a productive workforce for the coming decades.

- Infrastructure Development & Digital Transformation: India has invested heavily in modernizing

infrastructure, including transportation, energy, and digital connectivity.

For example: India’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), emergence of India as a global startup hub &

boost in the IT sector enhancing innovative driven growth.

- Manufacturing & Services Sector Growth: India’s manufacturing sector has seen significant growth

due to initiatives like Make in India and Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes.
Additionally, the services sector, particularly IT and financial services, continues to be a major contributor to GDP.

- External and Global Realignment: Strategic initiatives like “China Plus One” and

Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI) are leading to increased FDI inflows into India.
Global firms are diversifying their manufacturing bases, turning to India as an alternative to China 

amid geopolitical tensions For example: Apple has investors in India for manufacturing units. 

- Reform-Driven Growth: Introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) has created a unified domestic

market, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) has improved the ease of doing business,

Corporate tax cuts & initiatives like PM Gati Shakti, National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP),

and Atmanirbhar Bharat  are boosting capital formation.


- Additional Information
Real GDP: It measures the total value of goods and services produced in an economy, adjusted for inflation. 
1. It reflects the actual growth in production by using constant prices from a base year.

NominalDP: It measures the total value of goods and services produced at current market prices,

 without adjusting for inflation.
1. It means that if prices rise due to inflation, Nominal GDP may appear higher

even if actual production remains unchanged.


Challenges and Concerns
- Global Geopolitical Uncertainty: India’s economy is deeply connected to global trade,

and geopolitical tensions — including conflicts, trade restrictions, and supply chain disruptions —

pose risks to its growth.
The Economic Survey 2025 highlights that ongoing conflicts and trade policy risks could create 

vulnerabilities for India’s economic stability.

- Inflation and Price Volatility: While inflationary pressures have eased, services inflation remains persistent.

The rising cost of essential commodities, including fuel and food, continues to be a concern for policymakers.

- Employment and Workforce Challenges: India’s workforce faces disruptions due to automation and 

AI. 

The need for upskilling and reskilling is critical to ensure that workers remain competitive 

in a rapidly evolving job market.

- Trade Deficit and Export Challenges: India’s current account deficit has been reduced to 1% of GDP,

but weak global demand has impacted exports.
The government is focusing on diversifying trade partnerships to mitigate risks associated with declining exports.
- Infrastructure and Investment Needs: India’s Capital Expenditure (Capex) to GDP ratio has surged to 3.3%,

reflecting strong investment in infrastructure.
However, sustained investment is required to modernize transportation, energy, and digital connectivity.

Way Forward
- Diversify its trade partnerships to reduce dependency on volatile global markets.
- Strengthen domestic manufacturing through various initiatives and schemes.
- Invest in digital transformation to enhance financial inclusion and governance.
- Focus on sustainable economic policies that balance growth with environmental concerns.

인도, 세계 4위 경제 대국으로 도약

2025년 5월 26일

맥락
- 최근 NITI Aayog의 CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam은 인도가 일본을 제치고 세계 4위 경제 대국(명목 GDP)에 

올랐으며, 향후 2.5~3년 안에 독일을 추월할 것으로 예상된다고 발표했습니다.

인도의 경제 성장
- 인도의 명목 GDP는 현재 4조 1,900억 달러에 달하며, 일본의 추정 GDP인 4조 1,800억 달러를 넘어섰습니다.

2025년 세계경제대국 들의 명목 GDP : IMF 추정치

- IMF의 세계 경제 전망 보고서는 인도가 2025년 6.2%, 2026년 6.3%의 성장률을 기록하며 

주요 경제 대국으로서의 위상을 유지할 것으로 전망했습니다.
지난 10년 동안 인도의 GDP는 2015년 2조 1,000억 달러에서 현재 수준으로 두 배 가까이 증가했습니다.

세계 3위 경제 대국으로 도약
- IMF는 인도가 2028년까지 5조 5,000억 달러의 GDP를 기록하며 

독일을 제치고 세계 3위 경제 대국으로 도약할 것으로 전망합니다.
독일의 예상 GDP 성장률은 2025년에는 0%, 2026년에는 0.9%입니다(지속적인 세계 무역 긴장으로 인해).

인도 경제 성장의 주요 결정 요인
- 국내 소비 확대: 인도의 경제 성장은 주로 민간 소비, 특히 농촌 지역의 소비에 의해 촉진됩니다.
또한, 도시화와 생활 방식의 변화는 소비 주도 성장을 촉진했습니다. 

인도의 도시 인구는 2030년까지 6억 명에 달할 것으로 예상됩니다.

인구학적 배당 효과는 인도의 독보적인 강점입니다. 

인도의 중위 연령은 29세에 불과하여 향후 수십 년간 생산적인 노동력을 제공할 수 있습니다.

- 인프라 개발 및 디지털 혁신: 인도는 교통, 에너지, 디지털 연결 등 인프라 현대화에 막대한 투자를 해왔습니다.

예를 들어, 인도의 디지털 공공 인프라(DPI), 인도의 글로벌 스타트업 허브로의 부상,

혁신 주도 성장을 촉진하는 IT 부문의 활성화 등이 있습니다.

- 제조 및 서비스 부문 성장: 인도의 제조 부문은 Make in India 및 생산 연계 인센티브(PLI) 제도와 같은 

이니셔티브 덕분에 상당한 성장을 이루었습니다.
또한, IT 및 금융 서비스를 중심으로 한 서비스 부문은 GDP에 지속적으로 크게 기여하고 있습니다.

- 대외 및 글로벌 재정비: "차이나 플러스 원(China Plus One)" 및 공급망 회복력 이니셔티브(SCRI)와 같은 

전략적 이니셔티브는 인도로의 외국인 직접 투자(FDI) 유입 증가로 이어지고 있습니다.
글로벌 기업들은 지정학적 긴장 속에서 중국 대신 인도를 대안으로 삼아 제조 기반을 다각화하고 있습니다. 

예를 들어, 애플은 제조 부문 투자를 위해 인도에 투자자를 두고 있습니다.

- 개혁 주도 성장: 상품 및 서비스세(GST) 도입으로 통일된 국내 시장이 형성되었고, 

파산 및 도산법(IBC)으로 사업 환경이 개선되었으며, PM Gati Shakti, 국가 인프라 파이프라인(NIP), 

Atmanirbhar Bharat과 같은 법인세 감면 및 정책은 자본 형성을 촉진하고 있습니다.

추가 정보
– 실질 GDP: 한 경제에서 생산된 재화와 서비스의 총 가치를 인플레이션을 고려하여 측정합니다.
1. 기준 연도의 불변 가격을 사용하여 실제 생산량 증가율을 반영합니다.

– 명목 GDP: 인플레이션을 조정하지 않고 현재 시장 가격으로 생산된 재화와 서비스의 총 가치를 측정합니다.

1. 인플레이션으로 인해 가격이 상승할 경우, 실제 생산량이 변하지 않더라도

명목 GDP가 더 높게 나타날 수 있음을 의미합니다.

과제 및 우려 사항
- 세계 지정학적 불확실성: 인도 경제는 세계 무역과 긴밀히 연결되어 있으며, 

갈등, 무역 제한, 공급망 차질을 포함한 지정학적 긴장은 인도 경제 성장에 위협이 됩니다.
2025 경제 보고서는 지속적인 갈등과 무역 정책 위험이 

인도 경제 안정에 취약성을 초래할 수 있음을 강조합니다.

- 인플레이션 및 가격 변동성: 인플레이션 압력은 완화되었지만, 

서비스업 인플레이션은 여전히 ​​지속되고 있습니다.
연료와 식량을 포함한 필수품 가격 상승은 정책 입안자들의 지속적인 우려 사항입니다.

- 고용 및 인력 문제: 자동화와 AI로 인해 인도의 노동력은 차질에 직면해 있습니다.
급변하는 고용 시장에서 근로자들이 경쟁력을 유지하기 위해서는 

숙련도 향상 및 재숙련의 필요성이 매우 중요합니다.

- 무역 적자 및 수출 과제: 인도의 경상수지 적자는 GDP의 1%로 감소했지만,

 세계 수요 부진으로 수출이 영향을 받았습니다.
정부는 수출 감소와 관련된 위험을 완화하기 위해 무역 파트너십 다각화에 주력하고 있습니다.

- 인프라 및 투자 필요성: 인도의 GDP 대비 자본 지출(CAPEX) 비율은 3.3%로 급증하여 

인프라에 대한 강력한 투자를 반영하고 있습니다.

그러나 운송, 에너지 및 디지털 연결 현대화를 위해서는 지속적인 투자가 필요합니다.

향후 방향
- 변동성이 큰 글로벌 시장에 대한 의존도를 줄이기 위해 무역 파트너십을 다각화합니다.
- 다양한 이니셔티브와 제도를 통해 국내 제조업을 강화합니다.
- 금융 포용성과 거버넌스를 강화하기 위해 디지털 혁신에 투자합니다.
- 성장과 환경 문제의 균형을 이루는 지속 가능한 경제 정책에 집중합니다.