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Jan-Lennard Struff is a giant killer.
In the past two years he has defeated Tomas Berdych, Stan Wawrinka, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Grigor Dimitrov. Ranked just 55 in the world, you probably have not of heard of Struff before.
Let me do the introductions. He is the real deal.
Next up in the 6’5” German’s sights is Roger Federer. That match is the late show on Rod Laver Arena on Thursday night. Fireworks guaranteed.
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The 27 year-old German simply hits through opponents with the typical one-two punch of big serves and scorching forehands. He had 52 per cent (15/29) of his first serves unreturned in his opening round victory against Soonwoo Kwon from Korea. Only Ivo Karlovic (53 per cent) and Sam Querrey (56 per cent) had more serves not come back in the court in the opening round.
Can Struff beat Federer? Oh, yes he can.
They have played once before, with the Swiss maestro winning 6-4, 7-6(3) in the first round of Halle in 2016. Federer never faced a break point in that match, and only lost two points on first serve, winning 33 of 35. The slick grass helped that.
There are three things to look for in this match.
1. Federer backhand returns
Struff will strategically mix his big serves around the service box to try and stay a step ahead in the guessing game of serve location, but when push comes to shove on big points, expect the heat to be directed at Federer’s backhand return.
Here’s how Federer performed with his returns in his opening round 6-3 6-4 6-3 victory over Aljaz Bedene.
Deuce court: Returns IN
Forehand return = 63 per cent (10/16)
Backhand Return = 81 per cent (22/27)
Ad court: Returns IN
Forehand return = 75 per cent (12/16)
Backhand return = 73 per cent (19/26)
Overall, Federer put 69 per cent (22/32) forehand returns in play, and an even more impressive 77 per cent (41/53) backhand returns in. The Federer backhand return looks very, very healthy.
2. Backhands
When the point extends past the first strike segment of the serve and return, both Federer and Struff will be looking to try and match up their forehands to the backhand on the other side of the net.
Federer hit three backhand winners and committed 20 backhand errors (eight forced / 12 unforced) in his opening round. Struff hit four backhand winners and made 18 backhand errors (seven forced / 11 unforced) in his first match. If the backhand blinks, then the pathway to victory gets a lot tougher.
3. The net
Both players will be looking to dine at the net as much as possible to finish points. Struff won 65 per cent (17/26) at net in round one, while Federer was even more adventurous coming forward, winning 72 per cent (26/36).
The best way to come forward is with a forehand approach to the opponent’s backhand, where there is naturally less spin available for the passing shot. Unless the first volley is a sitter, it needs to go back behind instead of open court. The running forehand pass is much easier to pull off.
PREDICTION: Federer in four sets.
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Roger Federer’s ability to fill a tennis stadium and keep it packed is one of tennis’ more notable phenomenons.
Consider the scenario. Fans had already enjoyed a high-quality three-set battle during which Australian favourite Ash Barty overcame Camila Giorgi to reach the third round. It was getting late. It was a ‘school’ night. But Federer was up next at Rod Laver Arena. Nobody was going anywhere.
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Australian Open night sessions have the capacity to extend late into the evening. Sometimes, fans trickle out as midnight approaches, facing a long commute home.
None of these fans did that. They remained, engaged and atmospheric, as Federer closed out German Jan-Lennard Struff well into the 11th PM hour. The defending champion’s 6-4 6-4 7-6(4) win sets up a third-round meeting with contemporary Richard Gasquet.
“I'm happy I'm still part of (the tournament) really, because I knew Struff could be tough today,” Federer said.
“If you look at the last two matches that I've played, I felt like both of my opponents (he beat Aljaz Bedene in round one) pretty much kind of went for broke. When they see a mini chance to get on the offensive, they just go for it.
“You don't want to be in defense too much. The moment you see an opening, you go for it.”
We talk so often of Federer playing “sublime” tennis, progressing through matches in “cruise control” and competing “effortlessly”. And while it might seem cliched to reach for such descriptors, they were apt on Thursday night for most of the match.
He broke serve in the fifth game and maintained that advantage to close out the first set. In the sixth game of the second set, he embarked on a run of service holds at love that extended well into the third. When he pelted a forehand winner to take the second set, the clock had just registered 65 minutes.
This was rapid-fire Federer at his best, eliciting gasps from the crowd for both the pace of his play and his ability to look casual and unhurried in the process.
Yet this was not entirely one-way traffic. Struff snapped Federer’s streak of 18 straight service points won in the fourth game of the third, courtesy of a leaping backhand overhead winner. It was this play, against the tide, that seemed to remove Federer from his zone. A few points later, Struff had broken serve and taken an unlikely 3-1 lead. Federer broke straight back, but was forced to save a break point in the sixth game before levelling at 3-3.
The match was more competitive now. The German – who at 196cm could draw comparisons with Tomas Berdych in both physique and playing style – had committed to bullying Federer about the court. He attacked ceaselessly, advancing on the net an astonishing 52 times and striking 19 winners to Federer’s 13 in the third set.
Despite being somewhat under siege, Federer matched the world No.55 from the back of the court and was able to force the set into a tiebreak, thanks to another speedy hold in the 12th game made possible by a hat-trick of aces.
Once here, his experience and polish elevated him above his opponent. With Struff’s aggression came inevitable errors, and when he sprayed an inside-out forehand wide, Federer held multiple match points.
“I’ve practiced with him, played doubles against him and singles too … you know he can serve 215, 220 (kilometres an hour) no problem for five hours, I guess. So that’s what you are ready for,” Federer said.
“I knew he was going to go for his shots, so it’s a question of me focusing on my own serve, protecting that as well as I can, and try to somehow get a break by good defence, or maybe he helps me out a little bit. And I think it was a little bit of both.”
A winning serve out wide sent the Swiss through to the third round at Melbourne Park for the 19th time – he’s never fallen earlier. There he’ll meet Gasquet, against whom he’s 16-2.
Again, we can expect the stands for that encounter to be full.
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