https://cafe.daum.net/shogun/Nnge/37257
CONCLUSIONS
After four decades of economic engagement between the U.S. and China, linkages involving trillions of dollars in wealth, assets, and commercial flows have been built up. All are now at risk as political momentum builds toward a future in which the two countries are less engaged. Barring a shift in Beijing’s trajectory, which seems unlikely, one must assume that the pressure to disengage, driven by concerns about national security and competitiveness, will remain. It seems clear that there will be differences in how the Biden administration tackles the challenges posed by China compared with the approach of the Trump administration. But one cannot expect a return to engagement as we knew it. Decoupling is likely to continue in one form or another, even if it does evolve in a more measured, targeted way.
China’s leadership is focusing attention on economic self-su¤ciency, and there are few signs that it is prepared to address Western complaints about distortions arising from the state’s role in the economy or to reduce its application of economic statecraft and coercion abroad. In the words of President Xi, China seeks to tighten the dependence of international industrial chains on its economy to form a “powerful retaliatory and deterrent capability.”248 Though CCP leaders continue to promote a message of broader and deeper opening up—which will benefit select foreign industries, such as financial services and insurance—Beijing’s overall policy agenda is clearly oriented toward increasing China’s own indigenous technological power and economic self-su¤ciency. In this regard, the CCP’s new “Dual Circulation” strategy has a heavy emphasis on building resilience in domestic supply chains, including an explicit call by Xi himself for import substitution. At the sectoral level, industrial policies clearly state China’s goal to surpass America and achieve technological supremacy across a range of advanced industries. The regulatory system oers a suite of tools to serve these goals, including administrative measures, procurement policies, and tightening cybersecurity and data regimes— all of which establish clear preferences for domestic companies over foreign competitors. China is also moving rapidly to build out its corporate “social credit system,” which will be used to advance CCP regulatory priorities—such as industrial policy goals—and could become an additional tool to discriminate in favor of domestic companies over their foreigninvested counterparts. Furthermore, as PRC laws have adopted extraterritoriality provisions at an accelerating rate,249 economic coercion in the form of import bans and content censorship has become a routine response to countries and companies whose political behavior Beijing does not approve of. These trends appear set to continue and will likely empower calls for further decoupling from Washington.
The Biden administration’s first priority will likely be shoring up the home front by containing the COVID-19 outbreak and supporting the U.S.’ post-pandemic recovery. But China will continue to loom large as the U.S.’ top foreign policy challenge—one that goes beyond traditional security threats to include complex policy questions around technology, climate, and critical infrastructure. There is bipartisan agreement on the need to compete with China in a more concerted, strategic way. The resultant approach will likely include some combination of the following:
• A review of trade and technology policies among like-minded market economies in order to better coordinate responses to China
• A proactive “run faster” agenda that promotes innovation and the competitiveness of U.S. industry
• Urgent action to ensure the resilience of critically important U.S. supply chains
• A rationalization of defensive measures to protect U.S. technology, markets, and other assets from foreign threats
https://cafe.daum.net/shogun/Nnge/37188
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