특급한줄뉴스 원문) 미 상공회의소. 미.중 경제의 디커플링이 더 이상 가정이 아니라 '실제로 벌어질 일'이라고 공식결론 내렸음p 2021.02.19

[panchan1]

https://cafe.daum.net/shogun/Nnge/37257

필독) "바이든, 반도체·배터리·희토류 해외의존도 검토 지시 예정" 최우선적 공급망을 분석하고

CONCLUSIONS

After four decades of economic engagement between the U.S. and China, linkages involving trillions of dollars in wealth, assets, and commercial flows have been built up. All are now at risk as political momentum builds toward a future in which the two countries are less engaged. Barring a shift in Beijing’s trajectory, which seems unlikely, one must assume that the pressure to disengage, driven by concerns about national security and competitiveness, will remain. It seems clear that there will be differences in how the Biden administration tackles the challenges posed by China compared with the approach of the Trump administration. But one cannot expect a return to engagement as we knew it. Decoupling is likely to continue in one form or another, even if it does evolve in a more measured, targeted way.

China’s leadership is focusing attention on economic self-su¤ciency, and there are few signs that it is prepared to address Western complaints about distortions arising from the state’s role in the economy or to reduce its application of economic statecraft and coercion abroad. In the words of President Xi, China seeks to tighten the dependence of international industrial chains on its economy to form a “powerful retaliatory and deterrent capability.”248 Though CCP leaders continue to promote a message of broader and deeper opening up—which will benefit select foreign industries, such as financial services and insurance—Beijing’s overall policy agenda is clearly oriented toward increasing China’s own indigenous technological power and economic self-su¤ciency. In this regard, the CCP’s new “Dual Circulation” strategy has a heavy emphasis on building resilience in domestic supply chains, including an explicit call by Xi himself for import substitution. At the sectoral level, industrial policies clearly state China’s goal to surpass America and achieve technological supremacy across a range of advanced industries. The regulatory system o‚ers a suite of tools to serve these goals, including administrative measures, procurement policies, and tightening cybersecurity and data regimes— all of which establish clear preferences for domestic companies over foreign competitors. China is also moving rapidly to build out its corporate “social credit system,” which will be used to advance CCP regulatory priorities—such as industrial policy goals—and could become an additional tool to discriminate in favor of domestic companies over their foreigninvested counterparts. Furthermore, as PRC laws have adopted extraterritoriality provisions at an accelerating rate,249 economic coercion in the form of import bans and content censorship has become a routine response to countries and companies whose political behavior Beijing does not approve of. These trends appear set to continue and will likely empower calls for further decoupling from Washington.

The Biden administration’s first priority will likely be shoring up the home front by containing the COVID-19 outbreak and supporting the U.S.’ post-pandemic recovery. But China will continue to loom large as the U.S.’ top foreign policy challenge—one that goes beyond traditional security threats to include complex policy questions around technology, climate, and critical infrastructure. There is bipartisan agreement on the need to compete with China in a more concerted, strategic way. The resultant approach will likely include some combination of the following:

• A review of trade and technology policies among like-minded market economies in order to better coordinate responses to China

• A proactive “run faster” agenda that promotes innovation and the competitiveness of U.S. industry

• Urgent action to ensure the resilience of critically important U.S. supply chains

• A rationalization of defensive measures to protect U.S. technology, markets, and other assets from foreign threats

https://cafe.daum.net/shogun/Nnge/37188

필독) 원문) 김상조 정책실장-브라이언 디스 美 백악관 국가경제위원회 위원장 유선 협의 관련

[cjs5x5]

시장질서를 지키면서도 중국과의 대결에서 앞서나갈 수 있는 회복력을 갖춰야 한다...

그래서 바이든의 롤모델은 큰 정부의 대부인 루즈벨트 대통령이 될 수 밖에 없겠다는 생각이 듭니다. 마침 바이든의 야망도 대단하구요.

이런때에 우리나라에서는 작은 정부의 신봉자들이 집권하여 그들의 입맛에 맞는 조치들을 단행하고 있는게 참 쓴웃음나오게 만드네요. 재벌중에서도 최태원 회장은 미국 기억의 벽에 영원히 남는 무언가를 남기며 앞으로 일어날 일들에 차근차근 대비하는 반면, 현대가는 미국에 징징대는 못난꼴을 보이기도 하구요.