영국 경제는 대공황 기간 동안보다 더 비참하게된다

[giseg07]

영국 경제는 대공황 기간 동안보다 더 비참하게된다

스코틀랜드의 로얄 뱅크는 빅토리아 여왕이 왕위에 오르게되기 전부터 계산하여 최악의 경제라고 말했다

영국 신문을 리드하는 텔레그라프 지는 오늘 보고한다:

오늘 장관이 수치는 경제가 2012 년 전혀 성장하지 않은 것을 보여준 후에 영국은"매우, 매우 중대한 문제"를 직면하고 있는 것을 인정했다.

스코틀랜드의 로얄 뱅크의 경제학자들은 기록이 1830 년대에 수집 된 것을 시작한 이후 지난 4 년이 아닌 전후 최악의 경제 실적을 생산했다고 말했다.

"전후 전역(군대제대) 이외의 적어도 1830 년 이후 최악의 경제 실적"있다고 데일리 텔레그래프는 말했다. 그는 "1920 년대보다 더 나쁘고, 그것은 대공황보다 더악화되었다."

그는 경제가 2008 년 금융 사고로 위기에 이르는 문제의 규모때문에 "오랫동안 이방법으로 향하고있다"고 말했다.

주로 정부에 의해 소유된 RBS(스코틀랜드 로얄은행), 상단에서 경제학자는  복구하기가 어렵다고 대부분 세계는 비슷한 문제에 직면하고 있습니다.

그는 "2008 년에 일어난것 뿐만 아니라 준비기간 이다"라고 말했다. "[1980 년대와 1990 년대에 같은] 다른 경기 침체에 비해 세계의 모든 일이 일어나고 있습니다.  빠져 나갈 길을 내보낼 수있는 빠르고 쉬운 방법은 없습니다. "

(경제는 2012 년 4 분기에 0.3 % 감소로 별도의 기사에서, 텔레그래프는 영국은 전례없는 트리플 딥으로 향하고 있다고 말합니다.)

우리는 반복적으로이 대공황보다 더 나빠지고 있다고 경고 합니다 ...

경제 지표는 어떻게해야할까요?

우리는 반복적으로 지난 5 년을 포함하여 1930 년대의 대공황보다 더 나쁜 것으로보이는 많은 지표를 지적했습니다 :

주택 침체

속도에서 은행 요금

세계 무역  붕괴

단기 신용  취소

부자와 빈자 사이의 불평등의 레벨 (너무 많은 불평등이 경제를 파괴)

전 세계 금융 시스템과 경제의 상호 연관성은 (상호 금융 불안정으로 연결)

가출 지출과 탐욕

마크 맥휴 보고서 :

돈의 속도는 돈의 단위가 새로운 제품과 서비스에 소요되는 빈도를 말합니다. GDP보다 경제 활동의 지표, 소비자 가격, 주식 시장 훨씬 더 나은, 또는 남성의 속옷 (그린스펀은 올링를 좋아했다)을 판매합니다. 건강한 경제에서 동일한 달러 지불로 수집되며, 나중에 몇번이고 다시 보냈습니다.우울증에서, 돈의 속도가 미쳐갑니다. 돈의 속도는 단순히 주어진 돈을 공급하여 GDP를 나누어 계산됩니다. 금전적베이스를 사용하여 VoM 차트는 "이"사람이 시치미를 떼고 단어 "복구"를 사용할지 안할지 여부를인지하여 토론을 종료해야합니다 :

단지 4년 짧은 몇 년 동안, 우리의 "깨달게된"것은 정책 결정자가 대공황을 본 적이없는 깊이에 돈의속도의 둔화에 있습니다.

(우리가 이전에 설명 한 바와 같이, 연방 준비 은행이 전투 인플레이션에 대한 방법으로 의도적으로 돈 배율과 돈을 속도를 짓누를수 있습니다. 그리고 참조)

사실, 기본적인 음식을 얻기 위해 정부의 지원에 의존하는 미국인의 수는 대공황중보다 지금은 더 높을 수 있습니다. 우리가 30년 대에 그랬던 것처럼 대규모 식품스탬프 프로그램 때문에 "스프 라인"을 참조하지 않는 유일한 이유 입니다.

그리고 실업에 대한 정부 및 은행 정책 포인트 옹호자는 1930 년대 동안보다 더 나은 것 같은 그런 주장은 논쟁의 여지가 있습니다.

경제학자들은 무엇을 말합니까?

사실, 많은 경제학자들은 이를 포함 대공황보다 더 악화 될 수 있다는 것에 동의합니다 :

• 연방 준비 은행 의장 벤 버냉키

• 전 연방 준비 은행 의장 앨런 그린스펀

• 전 연방 준비 은행 의장 폴 Volcker

• 경제 학자이자 전 연방 준비 지사 프레드릭 Mishkin

Mervyn 왕의 은행 • 머리

• 노벨상은 경제학자 조셉 Stiglitz 경력

• 노벨상이 경제학자 폴 Krugman 경력

• 전 골드만 삭스 회장 존 화이트 헤드

• 경제학 교수 배리 Eichengreen와와 케빈 H. 오 러키

• 투자 고문, 리스크 전문가와 '블랙 스완'저자 Nassim 니콜라스 탈 레브

• 잘 알려진 박사 경제학자 마크 페이버

• 모건 스탠리 (Morgan Stanley)의 영국 주식 전략가 그라함 Secker

패니 매 에드워드 J. 핀토의 • 전 최고 신용 책임자

• 억만 장자 투자자 조지 Soros

• 시니어 영국 총리 에드 공

잘못된 정책은 우리를 꼼작못하게 합니다

정부가 잘못된 일을 모두 수행하고 있으며, 핵심 문제를 해결하는 데 실패했기 때문에 우리는 우울증에 갇혀있다.

새로운 경기를 가져오는 대신에, 우리는 처음부터 문제의 원인인 예전을 재탕하여재활용을 계속합니다.

예를 들면 다음과 같습니다

• 경제학 교수는 "우리가 처음에 확장되지 말았어야 부채를, 국채의 지불을 거절하지 않는 한 우리는 끝없는 우울증에 있어야 할것이라고 말한다

• 사기는 우울증의 주요 원인 중 하나이고, 아무 오늘은 사기를 억제하기 위해 수행되지 않았고 사실, 정부가 하고있고 유일한 작업은 사기를 은폐하는 것입니다

• 모든 주요한 독립된 경제학자가 큰 부실한 은행이 깨질 때까지 경제가 회복 할수없다고 말했지만, 정부는 더 크게 얻는데 도움이 되었습니다

• 과도한 영향력은 대공황과 현재 위기의 원인이 도움이 있지만, 정부는 더 많은영향력을 장려하고 있습니다

• 연방 준비 은행은 대공황과 현재 위기를 야기하고, 아무 짓도 안했지만 작은 녀석의비용인 배부른 자본가를 도울수 있습니다. 그리고 정부는 이전보다 연방 준비 은행에 더 힘을 주었다.

• 정부 정책은 생산 작업 및 달러를 해외로 보냄니다

• 양적 완화 도움이되지 않고 ... 그건 상황을 악화 할것입니다.

• 정부는뿐만 아니라 다른 잘못된 모든 노력을 다하고 있습니다. 이것과 이것 좀봐

이 왼쪽 대 오른쪽의(좌익 우익) 문제가 아닙니다 ... 그 부패와 슈퍼 엘리트를 돕지만 사람들의 대부분의 우울증을 일으키는 잘못된 정책입니다.

클릭

British Economy Is WORSE than During the Great Depression

Royal Bank of Scotland Says Worst Economy Since Before Queen Victoria Was Crowned

Leading British newspaper the Telegraph reports today:

Ministers today admitted Britain is facing “very, very grave difficulties” after figures showed the economydid not grow at all in 2012.

***

Economists from the Royal Bank of Scotland said the last four years have produced the worst economic performance in a non post-war period since records started being collected in the 1830s.

***

“It’s the worst economic performance since at least 1830, outside of post-war demobilisations,” he told The Daily Telegraph. “It’s worse than the 1920s, it’s worse than the Great Depression.”

He said the economy has been “heading this way for a long time” because of the scale of the problems that came to a head in the 2008 financial crash.

***

The top economist at RBS, which is mostly owned by the Government, said it is difficult to recover whenmuch of the world is facing similar problems.

“It’s the scale of what happened in 2008 but also the build-up to that,” he said. “Compared with other recessions [like in the 1980s and 1990s], this is happening all over the world. There’s not a quick and easy way to export your way out of this.”

(In a separate article, the Telegraph notes that the UK is heading for an unprecedented triple dip, as its economy shrunk .3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012).

We’ve repeatedly warned that this is worse than the Great Depression …

What Do Economic Indicators Say?

We’ve repeatedly pointed out that there are many indicators which show that the last 5 years have been worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, including:

• The housing slump

• The bank charge off rate

• The collapse in world trade

• The withdrawal of short-term credit

• The level of inequality between rich and poor (too much inequality destroys economies)

• The interconnectedness of financial systems and economies worldwide (interconnectedness leads to financial instability)

• Runaway spending and greed

Mark McHugh reports:

Velocity of money is the frequency with which a unit of money is spent on new goods and services. It is a far better indicator of economic activity than GDP, consumer prices, the stock market, or sales of men's underwear (which Greenspan was fond of ogling). In a healthy economy, the same dollar is collected as payment and subsequently spent many times over. In a depression, the velocity of money goes catatonic. Velocity of money is calculated by simply dividing GDP by a given money supply. This VoM chart using monetary base should end any discussion of what "this" is and whether or not anybody should be using the word "recovery" with a straight face:

In just four short years, our "enlightened" policy-makers have slowed money velocity to depths never seen in the Great Depression.

(As we’ve previously explained, the Fed has intentionally squashed money multipliers and money velocity as a way to battle inflation. And see this)

Indeed, the number of Americans relying on government assistance to obtain basic food may be higher now that during the Great Depression. The only reason we don’t see “soup lines” like we did in the 30s is because of the massive food stamp program.

And while apologists for government and bank policy point to unemployment as being better than during the 1930s, eventhat claim is debatable.

What Do Economists Say?

Indeed, many economists agree that this could be worse than the Great Depression, including:

• Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke

• Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan 
• Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker

• Economics scholar and former Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin

• The head of the Bank of England Mervyn King 
• Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz

• Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman

• Former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead

• Economics professors Barry Eichengreen and and Kevin H. O'Rourke 
• Investment advisor, risk expert and "Black Swan" author Nassim Nicholas Taleb

• Well-known PhD economist Marc Faber

• Morgan Stanley's UK equity strategist Graham Secker

• Former chief credit officer at Fannie Mae Edward J. Pinto

• Billionaire investor George Soros

• Senior British minister Ed Balls

Bad Policy Has Us Stuck

We are stuck in a depression because the government has done all of the wrong things, and has failed to address the core problems.

Instead of bringing in new legs, we keep on recycling the same old re-treads who caused the problem in the first place.

For example:

• An economics professor says "we'll have a never-ending depression unless we repudiate the debt, which never should have been extended in the first place"

• Fraud was one of the main causes of the Depression, but nothing has been done to rein in fraud today. Indeed, the only action the government is taking is to help cover up fraud

• All leading independent economists have said that the economy cannot recover until the big, insolvent banks are broken up, but the government has just helped them to get bigger

• Excessive leverage helped cause the Great Depression and the current crisis, but the government has encouraged more leverage

• The Federal Reserve caused the Great Depression and the current crisis, and has done nothing but help the fatcats at the expense of the little guy. And yet the government has given the Fed more power than ever.

• Government policies send manufacturing jobs and dollars abroad

• Quantitative easing won’t help … it will only make things worse.

• The government is doing everything else wrong, as well. See this and this

This isn't an issue of left versus right … it's corruption and bad policies which help the super-elite but are causing a depression for the vast majority of the people.

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