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| Alexander VORONTSOV | 12.04.2013 | 09:27 |
Tensions are rising on the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang has decided to close the industrial complex in Kaesong, which is a joint enterprise zone with South Korea, and has suggested that foreign embassies evacuate the Democratic People's Republic of Korea for reasons of safety. Most significant in this series of steps has been the decision of the Plenum of the Central Committee of the Korean Workers' Party, held in March 2013, regarding legal confirmation of North Korea's nuclear status and the decision of the Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea «On further strengthening the status of a country in possession of nuclear weapons for the purposes of self-defence». The majority of media, while painting a vivid picture of North Korea's militancy, is not trying to understand the reasons why the conflict on Korean soil is currently escalating so dramatically. When they do try, they usually name Pyongyang as the instigator of all the troubles, stressing that it was North Korea's third nuclear test that triggered the «nightmare». Consequently, a pressing need has arisen to examine the real, underlying causes of what is commonly referred to as «the Korean problem». In short, the initial cause is the unresolved outcome of the Korean War (1950-1953). This year marks 60 years since the end of the war and a peace agreement between its participants has still not been signed Only one Armistice Agreement exists (possibly on paper only these days), so a temporary cessation of hostilities, in other words. More importantly, there are no diplomatic relations between the main warring parties, the USA and North Korea. The anomalous nature of a situation like this is obvious. Pyongyang has repeatedly suggested that this astonishing anachronism of the cold war be removed, but in vain: Washington stubbornly refuses to both normalise intergovernmental relations and replace the Armistice Agreement with a fundamental document that establishes lasting peace on the peninsula. Effectively, the US is proving that they have «hostile intentions» – as they are called in Pyongyang – not in words, but in deeds. A peaceful co-existence with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea does not figure in America's plans. Rather, they are looking to eliminate the state. This is why there is a predetermined state of permanent conflict on the Korean Peninsula, a cyclical development of the situation from acute crisis to relative «remission» and back again. The actions of the West with regard to North Korea result in a vicious catch-22. Calls to stop the nuclear programme, thereby stopping the violation of the principles of the non-proliferation regime of weapons of mass destruction, are often used to cover up the realisation of a hidden agenda – regime change in North Korea... As a result, in instances where Pyongyang chooses the bargaining model of relations with the international community and is prepared to agree to mutual compromises with regard to its concerns (the non-proliferation dossier), the West does not see this as an independent decision by those in the north, but as a display of weakness, a triumph of its policy of pressure. Following such logic, Washington and its allies are not in a hurry to assess steps taken by Pyongyang according to their merit, using them in the interests of constructive cooperation and a way to advance the settlement of the Korean Peninsula's nuclear issue; rather they act the complete opposite. Based on the false understanding that North Korea began to make concessions under external pressure, the West considers it necessary to increase this pressure in order to put the final squeeze on its opponent. And now every time the policy with a false bottom fails. Convinced of the true intentions of its partners, Pyongyang, with a view to cooperating with them, but in no way capitulating, is stopping playing other people's games and is taking steps to strengthen its national defence capabilities. As a result, instead of the further concessions that were expected and the long-awaited collapse of North Korea, the West is being responded to with new missile and nuclear tests. The chronology of the current crisis is well-known. The successful launch of a North Korean satellite took place on 12 December 2012. The UN Security Council chose the harshest way to respond in the form of Resolution 2087 (22.01.2013), as opposed to a similar occasion in April 2012, when the Security Council confined itself to a statement by its chairman. North Korea strongly disagreed with this decision as well as America's logic, according to which «its own launches are satellites, while other people's are long range ballistic missiles», and announced that «the six-party talks and the Joint Statement of 19 September no longer exist». As a «sign of protest», Pyongyang carried out its third nuclear test on 12 February 2012, having pointed out in a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that there have been «more than 2,000 nuclear tests and 9,000 satellite launches» in the world, «but the UN Security Council has never passed a resolution prohibiting nuclear tests or satellite launches». In response, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2094 on 7 March 2013, placing the strictest sanctions on North Korea that the country has experienced in the past few decades. What has been the reason for the rapid worsening of the confrontation in 2013? There are many reasons. Among the main ones, Pyongyang's opponents usually cite the following: the display of inexperience, immaturity and adventurism by North Korea's young leader, the desire to intimidate Seoul, by forcing them to believe that nuclear weapons are being acquired, North Korea has drastically altered the military balance on the peninsula in its favour, has gained immunity against the actions of the South and is now able to intimidate and carry out «military provocations» against the Republic of Korea unpunished. Such attitudes are now widespread and are consequently supported by South Korean public opinion. In the USA's political and expert communities, voices have risen sharply demanding an immediate and decisive shift of policy emphasis in favour of adopting measures aimed at forcing regime change in North Korea by dramatically increasing external pressure, as well as isolation and the encouragement of internal opposition. At the official level, the issue of undermining the standard of living of the North Korean population, amongst other things, has been openly discussed. Advocates of these kinds of actions prefer not to notice that North Korea's nuclear tests at the turn of 2012-2013 were, to a large extent, in response to the West's reluctance to open up a constructive dialogue with Pyongyang. You will recall that after North Korea announced its withdrawal from the six-party talks in April 2009, the five remaining members declared that finding a way to convince Pyongyang to return to the talks was a priority. And lo and behold, when this goal was almost achieved, in large part thanks to the diplomatic efforts of Russia and China, and the North Korean government during 2011-2012 repeatedly announced that it was prepared to continue its involvement in the six-party diplomatic process, Washington, Tokyo and Seoul, contrary to their own declarations, began to put forward preconditions and essentially did their best to delay the recommencement of negotiations for as long as possible. In so doing, they once again revealed their true aims: extending the policy of «strategic patience» which many American experts have called a variation on North Korea's «strategy of containment», so increasing its isolation with the ultimate aim of its regime change. Having received this perfectly clear signal from its opponents, and taking into account, including the examples of Libya and Syria, the West's growing inclination to use military force to overthrow undesirable regimes, Pyongyang considered itself free in its choice of means and undertook the necessary measures to strengthen its national defence capabilities. This was not the only reason pushing Pyongyang to take such steps, of course. It is more than likely that the desire of the North Korean government to make up for the unpleasant aftertaste that arose in society following the failed launch of the satellite on 13 April and the reality of the space race between North and South Korea also played its part. By sending its first satellite into scheduled orbit on 12 December 2012, North Korea won the competition to breakthrough into space. This was taken rather badly in the South, where they carried out the successful launch of their own satellite one and a half months later. At one and the same time, these actions built up the spiral of conflict which has now placed the Korean Peninsula on the brink of war. In order to prevent the situation deteriorating further, all the parties involved need to have self-restraint, first and foremost, and the utmost concentration to search for ways to resume political contacts. |
| Tags: Asia-Pacific North Korea South Korea US |
Sang Youl Sohn
Many people think that the crisis on the Korean peninsula started in the wake of North Korea's nuclear development. However, contrary to what is commonly known, it is right to think that the crisis initiated from the aggressive nuclear and military policies made by the US, and military approach to this by North Korea made the crisis more complicated.
It was around October 2002 when the nuclear issue came out in the Korean peninsular. At that time, the US special convoy to North Korea raised a suspicion about the nuclear development program when visiting the state. He announced that the north admitted the suspicion and the current crisis began. However, the US has never shown any solid proof about North Korea's nuclear development so far. Then, why, at this point of time, does the US want to create trouble with North Korea by raising the groundless suspicion?
In order to understand the origin of the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula, above all, a closer look has to be taken at US nuclear policy. The US had established plans to actually use nuclear weapons on the peninsular since the Korean War, and deployed nuclear weapons in and around the peninsula. According to an estimation, it is known that about 700 nuclear weapons were deployed in South Korea during the 1970-80's.
The end of the cold war in the 90's brought a change on the Korean peninsula. The US deployed nuclear weapons on the peninsula started to be taken away. In 1991, 'the Declaration of Nuclear-Free Korean Peninsula' was adopted by the agreement of the two Korean governments. In 1992, North Korea concluded the safeguard agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA), and as a following step, an IAEA's nuclear investigation to North Korea was launched. However, a serious tensions arose between North Korea and the US over the issue of the scope and level of the nuclear investigation in the Fall of 1992. Under these circumstances, the US carried out the Team Spirit exercise (a joint military operation exercise between South Korea and the US), which had been canceled in the 90's. In protesting the exercise, North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). After the withdrawal the situation became worse and aggravated into a war between the two states. The Agreed Framework (Geneva Agreement) was signed in 1994. There were three major agreements:
North Korea would freeze nuclear facilities, both parties would move toward full normalisation of relations, and the US would provide North Korea with two light water reactors to solve electricity problems.
However, the US violated the Geneva agreement. Light water reactors were to be completed by 2003, but the construction was intentionally delayed. The promise of normalisation of relations was not kept. Above all, the US was supposed to guarantee North Korea not to use nuclear weapon against Pyongyang, but instead it continued to give military threats to North Korea. After 9/11 the Bush administration took a stronger position on the small country. Bush named North Korea as part of the axis of evil and said a pre-emptive attack against North Korea could possibly be made. The Bush administration even openly mentioned a regime change in North Korea.
In conclusion, the reason that the US raise groundless suspicions to instigate friction with North Korea at this time is the following: by raising a new suspicion on North Korea's nuclear development, the US would not have to deal with the criticism that they put aside the responsibility of fulfilling the Geneva agreements and the US claims that North Korea is responsible for unfulfilled agreements. Another reason is to realise more US interests on the Korean peninsula and East Asia. Mention about nuclear development is on the way, the North Korean administration took strong steps toward the US due to this security threat. However, it is clear that the militaristic approach by North Korea is also very dangerous.
Recently, there are many people who say that the US foreign policy toward North Korea put more emphasis on compromise and multilateralism, than faceoff and unilateralism. What they probably have in mind is the 6-party talks (South Korea, North Korea, the US, China, Japan and Russia), which opened in Beijing in August.
However, the real reason that the US participates in a mulitilateral framework such as the 6-party talks is to bring about aid from surrounding countries and put pressure on North Korea. Simultaneous solutions of nuclear issues and a security assurance for the North Korean society - a new and sincere approach to the problem - was presented through the 6-party talks. However, the US made no concession about its position. North Korea must give up its nuclear program first, and then the US will promise security for North Korea. What makes the matter worse is that the US continues to put military pressure on North Korea, which might incite the county. As soon as the 6-party talks ended, the US held the Prolifersation Security Initiative (PSI) conference in France in early September. 11 participants in the conference decided to have a joint military practice in mid-September. The PSI is a plan to strengthen searching and seizing of boats of the countries labeled as 'Axis of Evil' by the US. It is a well-known fact that North Korea was the target. The US also had the Stryker Brigade field drill, an exercise for faster military deployment, in South Korea over the last few months. A operation plan called 'O-plan' 5030 was recently opened to the public. This is a plot to induce to dismantle the North Korean system by tiring its military power.
Moreover, the US is bolstering up militarism in northeast Asia, finding an excuse in suspicious nuclear development by North Korea. This materialises in the form of a strengthened military alliance among South Korea, Japan and the US. As a result of this, Japan is expanding the scope of its Defence Forces, and trying to amend the peace constitution. South Korea is increasing the military budget by a large margin. Recently it is confirmed through media reports that South Korea is the second biggest military weapon import country. The Missile Defence system in northeast Asia strengthens the status of military alliance among the 3 countries in the region.
The crisis in the Korean peninsula will intensify unless the US foreign policy toward northeast Asia changes. People in both North and South Korea live in pain because of the crisis. Even if this crisis gets solved through the framework of the 6-party talks, it does not mean that people's security and peace is assured. People's grassroots campaigns and international solidarity to oppose war is the most secure way of making peace in northeast Asia.
Sang Youl Sohn works with Solidarity for Peace & Human Rights in South Korea
Exploring the Handbook for Nonviolent Campaigns: meeting at Universidad Surcolombiana, Neiva, Colombia
Link to a list of WRI affiliates
http://wri-irg.org/network/about_wri
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