항공무장 러시아와의 전쟁을 준비한다면 전투기보다는 무장을 더 사겠다

[백선호]

6월 28일 영국 의회 회의록에 나온 것인데 하원의원이 먼저 전쟁이 터질 위기가 닥쳐 타이푼을 급히 새로 만든다면 얼마나 시간이 걸리는지 물어 보니 답변이 "2년"이었습니다.

그래서 RUSI의 Justin Bronk는 지금으로부터 3~5년 안에 러시아와 싸울 것으로 예상하고 전쟁을 준비한다면, 나(Bronk)라면 전투기를 더 사는 것이 아니라 미사일과 폭탄을 더 사겠다고 말합니다. 전투기가 부족해서 전쟁을 못하는 것이 아니라 미사일과 폭탄이 떨어져서 전쟁을 못하게 될 가능성이 높다며.

https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/10546/html

Mr Francois: 

The Russians are shelling cities in Donbas as we speak. We have had an atrocity, with at least 18 civilians murdered in a shopping centre overnight. If you will forgive me, everything that you are saying is talking about operating an air force in peacetime. What if we had to go to war for real? You will need every combat aircraft you can get.

I was at Warton once and I asked BAE how long it takes to build a Typhoon from scratch. They said, “Three years.” I said, “If you had to go flat out in a national emergency, how quickly could you build it?” They said, “Two years.” If you had to fight a “come as you are” war without two years’ warming, you would need the aircraft that you have, so to take 53 out of 160 off the table is madness. At the very least, should we not do what the Americans do, which is to put them in Davis-Monthan out in the desert and maintain them so that, in the event of war, we could recall and use them? To simply get rid of them is madness, is it not?

Justin Bronk: 

For the combat‑capable ones, there is definitely an argument for preserving in mothballed status. The bigger issue, though, is whether the RAF takes a strategic approach. As CGS outlined this morning, for the British Army to say, “The planning assumption is that we have to be ready to fight the Russians in eastern and northern Europe in the next three to five years” is an extremely sensible approach to take, because the Russians have burned all their other means of competing - economic and soft power of any kind. The history of countries deciding to abandon the military instrument after they have failed or had questionable success in a war is pretty limited. Argentina is the only one that I can think of.

They will almost undoubtedly pose a threat continually over the next few years from the air and the sea, including potentially land in three to five, but the first step for me would not be increasing the number of Typhoons; it would be buying more munitions. We will run out of munitions far before we run out of aeroplanes. Equally, if I was buying more aeroplanes, first of all I would buy one more E-7.

[Minowski(김유철)]

그래도 전쟁나면 저 양반이 얼마를 쟁여놓든 준비할 수 있는 것보다 최소 2배는 필요하겠죠...

[백선호]

전투기와 미사일, 정밀유도폭탄을 새로 만들 때 lead time이 6개월 넘어가면 지금 당장 전쟁이 나서 한 3개월 싸울 때 그야말로 지금 갖고 있는 것들로만 싸워야 한다는 얘기도 되겠네요.

[위종민]

공장 죄다 해외로 나가버리거나 부품공급선을 해외에 의존하는 보통 국가들은 90일 넘게 전쟁도 못할 것 같습니다.