To the moon, N Korea? Or does a rocket have a darker aim?

[chahlley]

To the moon, N Korea? Or does a rocket have a darker aim?

N Korea’s demonstration of a new rocket engine for the geostationary satellite at the Sohae Space Centre.

Rocket experts say four of the new North Korean engines, clustered at the base of a space vehicle,

would  be powerful enough to propel  a no-frills payload  to the moon. Photo: KCNA VIA REUTERS

Even though the US and its allies try to block our space development,

our aerospace scientists will conquer space and definitely plant the flag of the DPRK

on the moon. Mr Hyon Kwang-il Director of THE Scientific Research Development

of  North Korea’s National Aerospace Development  Administration

WASHINGTON — Mr Kim Jong-un is headed to the moon.

That, at least, is one of the official North Korean explanations for the testing last week of a rocket engine that, if as powerful as the North claims, would rival the commercial rockets that Mr Jeff Bezos and  Mr Elon Musk, of Amazon and Tesla, now use in their aerospace companies to fire payloads into space.

Inside American intelligence agencies, though, there is considerable scepticism that North Korea is truly eager to plant a flag on the lunar landscape.

The agencies are exploring another explanation: That Mr Kim, the North Korean leader, is racing ahead, as the United States is distracted by a bruising presidential election, to develop a way for his growing arsenal of nuclear weapons to reach New York and Washington.

The North may not be working alone. An intelligence finding that the US quietly made public in January suggests that the development of the North’s big engine, which it claims produces 80 tonnes of thrust, may be part of a joint partnership with Iran.

A Treasury Department announcement of sanctions against Iranian officials and engineers named two who had “travelled to North Korea to work on an 80-tonne rocket-booster being developed by the North Korean  government”.

The Obama administration has responded to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile tests with gradually escalating sanctions, mostly through the United Nations (UN). But on Monday it went a step further, announcing criminal charges and Treasury Department sanctions against four Chinese individuals and a company that it said engaged in money laundering to help the North’s programmes for weapons of mass destruction.

The sanctions were against the Dandong Hongxiang Industrial Development Co and its primary owner Ma Xiaohong, who lives near the North Korean border.

Few threats as urgent as the dramatic escalation of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes are likely to confront Mrs Hillary Clinton or Mr Donald Trump as US President.

An engine that delivers 80 tonnes of thrust would have about three times the power of an advanced North Korean rocket shown in a ground test in April, although it is not possible to verify the North’s claims.

By most unclassified estimates, it will take Pyongyang perhaps  five years to marry its missile advances with a weapon small enough and strong enough to survive the stresses of re-entering the atmosphere atop an intercontinental ballistic missile.

So far, Mr Kim’s engineers have never executed a military test flight that could reach beyond the middle of the Pacific, although in a statement recently, the North threatened to attack Guam, home of the US B-1 bombers that conducted simulated runs last week over the Korean Peninsula.

The potential links to Iran complicate the issue. Iran has ignored a UN Security Council resolution, passed in conjunction with last year’s agreement to freeze its nuclear programme, to refrain from tests of nuclear-capable missiles for eight years.

The Obama administration has not sought sanctions, knowing they would be vetoed by Russia and China, nor has it said much in public about the details of the cooperation on the new rocket engine.

There is a long history of sharing missile technology, but no persuasive evidence exists that the Iranians have been involved in the North’s nuclear weapons tests.

The moonshot talk may be aspirational, but it is not lunacy. Rocket experts say four of the new North Korean engines, clustered at the base of a space vehicle, would be powerful enough to propel a no-frills payload to the moon. But the North would have to master many other technologies before even an unmanned vehicle could be landed there.

In an interview last month with The Associated Press, the director of the scientific research department of North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration, Hyon Kwang-il, said a moonshot was the nation’s goal.

“Even though the US and its allies try to block our space development, our aerospace scientists will conquer space and definitely plant the flag of the DPRK on the moon,” he said, using the abbreviation for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Whatever the goal, the most important aspect of the new North Korean engine is that its design appears to be indigenous, rather than a knock-off of decades-old Soviet missiles. That suggests a growing domestic ability, which may explain the appeal to Iran, that intelligence officials speculate may be helping to fund the effort.

“It’s like nothing we’ve seen before,” Mr John Schilling, an expert on North Korea’s missile programme at 38 North, a blog and think tank of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, said of the powerful new engine. “It’s somewhat frightening that they have this capability, but somewhat encouraging that they want to use it for space launching.”

History shows that any strides in rocketry, no matter what the claimed purpose, can aid both civil and military programmes.

“That’s what the United States did,” said Mr David Rothkopf, who has written two histories of the National Security Council. “It’s what the Russians did. It’s what the Chinese did. Why not the North Koreans?”

One possibility is that the North is trying to replicate elements of the American “triad” — the creation of a nuclear arsenal that can be delivered by aircraft, ground-based missile silos, and submarines. A recent missile launch by the North appeared to have been from a submarine.

The North Koreans may be thinking, “Why not have everything?”  Mr Lewis added.

Dr David Wright, a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists — a Cambridge, Massachusetts, group that monitors proliferation — argued that the North Korea advance could well end up powering intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) from deep silos. He noted that the high power of the new North Korean engine was similar to one that Chinese scientists developed to power that nation’s first long-range missile.

Dr Wright, in a blog post on the North Korean advance, noted that the Chinese rocket, known as the DF-5 (for Dong Feng, or East Wind), “could carry a nuclear warhead to anywhere in the United States”. “Who knows what North Korea might want to do?” Dr Wright said. “At this point, I don’t think we can take an ICBM off the table.” THE NEW YORK TIMES

US to Push for Immediate Thaad Development

The United States will speed up deployment of an anti-missile system to South Korea given the pace of North Korea’s missile tests, and it will be stationed there “as soon as possible”, the top US diplomat for East Asia said early yesterday.

Mr Daniel Russel, assistant secretary of state for East Asia, also told a congressional hearing that the US was in discussions with international partners including the European Union (EU), to deny North Korea access to international banking infrastructure after its recent nuclear and missile tests.

Mr Russel told the House subcommittee for Asia that the timing of the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) system was a Pentagon matter.

But he added: “Given the accelerating pace of North Korea’s missile tests, we intend to deploy on an accelerated basis. I would say as soon as possible.”

Asked if the deployment was a “done deal”, Mr Russel replied: “Yes.”

A Pentagon spokesman, Commander Gary Ross, said the Thaad would be deployed “as soon as feasible”, but declined to give a specific timeline.

Mr Russel told Reuters last week that Thaad deployment was not negotiable as part of efforts to agree on new United Nations (UN) sanctions on North Korea after its fifth nuclear test on Sept 9.

China, whose full backing is widely seen as crucial for sanctions on North Korea to be effective, is strongly opposed to Thaad, and some experts have argued it should be part of talks on new UN measures.

Mr Russel said China shared concerns about North Korea’s nuclear programme and there had been a vast improvement in cooperation on sanctions, even though there was “an awful lot more” Beijing needed to do to tighten them.

He said there had been “a very constructive and honest candid set of ongoing conversations” with China on new sanctions and added: “I hope you will see, as one of the products of that, real headway in the discussions.”

Asked if consideration was being given to restrict Pyongyang’s access to banking transaction services, such as the Swift system, Mr Russel replied: “We are in discussions with our partners, including the EU, about tightening the application of sanctions and pressure, including and particularly to deny North Korea access to the international banking infrastructure.”

Mr Russel said the US and its allies Japan and South Korea had been working to cut off North Korean revenue streams from coal and overseas workers, and were considering further joint action. REUTERS