Why Jokowi is vulnerable despite enjoying a strong incumbency

[能田]

(Commentary Today Tyesday 15 January 2019)

​Why Jokowi is vulnerable despite enjoying a strong incumbency

By Alexander R Arifianto

President Jokowi, seen here with East Java Governor Soekarwo (far right) and Cabinet Secretary

Pramono Anung, is using his powers to secure endorsement from regional officeholders and other senior

politicians, says the author. Facebook / President Jokowo Widodo

Updated 15 January, 2019

With Indonesia’s presidential election campaign now passing the halfway mark, with some three months of hustings remaining, the electoral performances of the two candidates — incumbent president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and his challenger retired Lieutenant General Prabowo Subianto — have emerged as talking points.

On the surface, President Jokowi currently seems to be in a very strong position.

A newly-released survey commissioned by Indikator Politik, one of Indonesia’s most reliable public opinion companies, shows that he is leading Mr Subianto with a margin of 55 per cent to 35 per cent.

This is a slight decrease from the company’s September 2018 survey, which puts the candidates’ electability at 58 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively.

The Jokowi campaign has pursued several strategies to bolster the president’s popularity rating.

Firstly, it touted the economic accomplishments made during his first term.  

This includes new tax holiday schemes and streamlining of business permits to encourage new foreign direct investments; speeding up the construction of new infrastructure projects, especially new toll roads, airports, and seaports; and increasing the number of Indonesians eligible to receive free or highly-subsidised healthcare through the national health insurance schemes.

Secondly, the President nominated Ma’ruf Amin, a senior Islamic cleric from Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) – Indonesia’s largest Islamic organisation, who is also general chairman of the Indonesian Ulama Council (MUI).

This appointment was made to shield himself from charges often made by conservative Muslims regarding his lack of strong Islamic credentials.

With Mr Amin’s appointment, President Jokowi’s campaign hopes it will solidify support for him among pious Muslims.

As incumbent, Mr Widodo is also using his powers to secure endorsement from regional officeholders and other senior politicians.

So far 31 governors (out of 35 provinces) have declared their support for him. Since in Indonesia prospective voters are more likely to be swayed by influential figures (tokoh) rather than political parties, such endorsements can help him to secure electoral support.

This is especially so in the provinces where Mr Subianto has commanded significant support in the polls, like West Sumatra, West Java, and South Sulawesi.

Mr Widodo is also backed by nine out of 16 political parties which are contesting this year’s national legislative election – compared to his rival who is backed by only five parties.

Lastly, the Jokowi campaign has assembled approximately two dozen ‘volunteers’ (relawan) groups, which are financed and coordinated by leading retired Indonesian military officers supporting the president, including Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Moeldoko, Wiranto, and A.M. Hendropriyono.

However, despite the fact Mr Widodo is currently leading in the polls, his electability is widely considered by many observers to remain vulnerable from potential new attacks from the rival campaign.

This includes those who criticise the President’s economic policies and those who continue to questioning his Islamic credentials.

On the economic front, the Subianto campaign has criticised Mr Widodo for the relatively high prices of food items such as rice, meat, vegetables, and other staples. They also criticised Mr Widodo’s policy to import most of these staples from overseas, while these imports have failed to bring down the prices of these goods.

In the outer island provinces like West Kalimantan and North Sulawesi, the campaign attacks the administration for failing to halt the falling prices of plantation commodities like palm oil and rubber, which are important economic resources for farmers who live in these provinces.

These attacks have managed to bring down Mr Widodo’s electability ratings in West Kalimantan, from 60 per cent of the votes during the 2014 presidential election to approximately just 54 per cent today.

IS JOKOWI PREPARED FOR BATTLE?

Despite the presence of Mr Amin as vice-presidential nominee, he has so far not been able to attract more supporters from the conservative Islamic background.

Much of the clerics and organisations affiliated with the National Movement to Support the Ulama Edicts are steadfast in their support for Mr Subianto.

Mr Amin Ma’ruf has also not been able to attract supporters from Muhammadiyah – Indonesia’s second largest Islamic organisation, given the wide perception within the organisation that the Jokowi administration favours NU rather than the former.

This is indicated by the large number of political appointees from NU background and government grants and subsidies given to NU-linked religious institutions. Consequently, most Muhammadiyah members are supporting Mr Subianto instead of Mr Widodo.

There is also a growing perception that despite his position as MUI general chairman, Mr Amin is not well-known among grassroots-level Muslims, including those who aligned themselves with NU.

This can be seen even in Mr Amin’s native province Banten, where he is not well-known in rural villages where most of the province’s residents live.

According to a recent survey, Mr Subianto has a large lead over Mr Widodo in Banten province — 59 per cent versus 39 per cent.

While in West Java, another province with a significant number of pious Muslim population, the President has only a slight lead — 47 to 42 per cent — over his rival.

Using the advantage of his incumbency, Mr Widodo is able to marshal more political support from political parties, regional executives, retired TNI officers, and influential notables compared to his opponent.

This support, if effectively utilised, can potentially help him to secure his re-election relatively easily.

However, evidence on the ground indicates that this election will be much closer than what most pollsters and pundits have anticipated.

Mr Widodo remains vulnerable to attacks from Mr Subianto’s camp on his economic records and on his Islamic credentials.

In addition, Mr Subianto seems to have more committed supporters on his side rather than Mr Widodo.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Dr Alexander R Arifianto is a Research Fellow with the Indonesia Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.   This piece, which first appeared in RSIS Commentary, is part of an ongoing series on the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election.