방공체계(IADS) NORAD 사령관, 북미 순항미사일 방어체계는 Picket Fence에 불과하다고 발언

[위종민]

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/cruise-missile-defense-of-north-america-is-a-picket-fence-norad-commander-says/

냉전기 36,000피트로 날아오는 폭격기와 ICBM에 맞춰 설계됐고 적들에게 감시범위가 이미 알려진 조기경보레이더 시스템은 RCS가 낮은 순항미사일을 탐지할 수 없으며, 북빙양의 얼음이 녹아가면서 그 곳에서 활동하는 러시아와 중국의 순항미사일 공격 가능성이 높아지고 있다고 하네요. 

또한 우크라이나 전쟁에서 러시아 영공 안에서 발사하는 장거리 순항미사일은 발사 전에 이를 저지하는 게 매우 힘들고, 이는 북미 방어에서도 마찬가지라고 말했습니다. 

Cruise Missile Defense of North America is a 'Picket Fence,' NORAD Commander Says | Air & Space Forces Magazine

Oct. 11, 2022 | By Chris Gordon

6-7 minutes

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The top general in charge of the defense of North America delivered a sobering account of Russian and Chinese threats and described his command’s ability to detect and defend against a cruise missile attack as little more than a “picket fence.”

The U.S. homeland is under the most significant threat since the end of the Cold War, the head of North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) Air Force Gen. Glen D. VanHerck said Oct. 11.

“For the first time in our nation’s history, [we have] two strategic peers, both nuclear-armed, that we need to deal with,” VanHerck said at the Association of United States Army conference in Washington, D.C. “While we were focused on violent extremists for last 20-plus years, they were developing capabilities to hold our homeland at risk.”

More concretely, Russia possesses a large arsenal of cruise missiles and the platform to fire them with little warning to the United States.

That is an issue for the North Warning System (NWS), the early-warning radar system the U.S. and Canada use to defend North America. It came online in the late 1980s when the Cold War-era intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers were the primary means of conducting a long-range strike.

“Their cruise missiles that they’ve developed that can be employed from land, air, subsea, sea, are very low radar cross-section now,” VanHerck said. “They make our North Warning System look like a picket fence. It was designed for a 36,000-foot bomber back in the 70s and 80s timeframe, and now they can know where all those radars are and circumnavigate those.”

Russia is currently launching cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. In response to questions from reporters Oct. 11 about pleas for air defense systems by the Ukrainian government, White House National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby noted that Russia uses long-range cruise missiles fired from bombers flying inside of Russian airspace, making the threat hard to address through air defense systems.

But that threat might exist for the United States as well.

“They can take off over Russian air bases today and launch their cruise missiles from over Russia and attack almost all of North America, including the United States of America,” VanHerck said.

The risk of undetected strikes is increasing from above and below as waters around the U.S. become more permissible due to melting ice caused by climate change. In addition, China and Russia have increased their presence in the Arctic. The White House has recognized its growing importance to national security with a new plan for the region with defense as the top priority, which VanHereck has previously championed.

“It’s the closest route to the homeland if you’re going to attack,” VanHerck said, referring to the route submarines could take over the North Pole, which “significantly reduces our decision space and timeline.”

That threat also exists outside the Arctic due to Russia’s sizeable nuclear-powered submarine fleet.

“That will be a persistent proximate threat capable of carrying a significant number of land attack cruise missiles that can threaten our homeland today,” VanHerck said.

Ultimately, the United States will always attempt to defend its territory. Deterring an attack on America is the main reason the U.S. has spent billions building a nuclear triad.

A July 2022 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies argued that America lacked sufficient cruise missile defense and relied too much on the U.S. nuclear deterrent, creating “a vulnerability that near-peer adversaries are seeking to exploit.”

In the National Defense Strategy, China is defined as the “pacing” threat and Russia is an “acute” threat. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a flagrant example of Moscow’s willingness to take military action to achieve its aims. But Russia has long violated international norms and laws, from using chemical weapons to poison opponents abroad to interfering in other countries’ democratic elections.

While China’s rapidly growing military capabilities and increasingly aggressive international posture concern VanHerck, Russia is front of mind.

“I fought really hard to get the Russians in there candidly,” VanHerck said of the National Defense Strategy. “This was before their acts of Feb. 24” when the invasion of Ukraine began.

“They are a now threat to the homeland,” VanHerck added of Russia, repeating a theme he has tried to hammer home to policymakers. “They are the primary military threat to the homeland today when it comes to kinetic capabilities, and also non-kinetic.”

Russia already took action against the U.S. homeland by interfering in American elections, using various cyber means such as hacking and bots to influence outcomes or at least sow discord. Russia has also been blamed for conducting more aggressive cyber attacks against other countries’ infrastructure, including shutting down power grids.

“We’re under attack, folks, if you haven’t figured that out. What you see in social media—what you see fanned the flames of internal discord, whether it be politics or not,” VanHerck said.

If a nation launches weapons against the United States, conventional or nuclear,  VanHerck said global security could quickly spiral out of control if America cannot assess threats quickly and accurately.

“If you can’t detect a threat, I can’t provide continuity of government warning—I can’t provide warning to our nuclear force posture,” VanHerck said. “So you have to start making some assumptions. And those are significant threats, as well.”

“If we’re shooting down cruise missiles over Washington, D.C., or Ottawa, I think I’ve failed,” he added.

[백선호]

1960년대에 저고도 침투 폭격기에 대한 방공을 위해 생각한 것이 F-106X와 AWACS였는데 지금의 F-16C도 APG-68로는 크루즈 미사일은 거의 못잡는다고 하니 크루즈 미사일에 대한 방공 능력은 옛날부터 없었네요. 구소련이 저고도 침투하는 크루즈 미사일을 많이 갖고 있지도 않았지만요.

[위종민]

30년 전부터 순항미사일을 유용하게 써먹어서 당연히 방어책도 같이 만들 줄 알았는데, 만만한 테러단체급들만 상대하다 보니 투자를 안했나 봅니다. 그나저나 저 AWACS는 레이돔이 꼬리날개에 달렸네요 ㅋㅋㅋ

[백선호]

저기에 레이다를 다는 것은 초기 컨셉트들 중의 하나였지요. ^^

[사처포(곽명기)]

최강 미국의 미사일 방어망이 저럴진데 우리의 사드 등 요격미사일의 능력은 말 할 필요도 없겠네요... ㅠ ㅠ