전투기 Re: 카데나에서 무인전투기를 운용하자는 제안

[위종민]

카데나에서 F-15 C/D를 빼고, 대안이 정해질 때까지 F-22나 F-35를 순환배치시키고 있는데, 그 대신 XQ-58A 발키리같은 무인전투기를 배치하자는 RAND 연구원  David A. Ochmanek의 제안입니다. 

오키나와는 중국과 가까워 전투기의 짧은 발을 보충해 줄 유용한 전방기지이지만, 대신 중국의 탄도미사일과 순항미사일 사거리 안이라서 전시에 수 백발의 미사일 공격을 받을 수 있습니다. 따라서 미국은 LCAAT( low-cost, attritable aircraft technologies ) 계획으로 활주로나 기타 고정시설 없이 발진 및 회수, 운용 및 재발사가 가능한 무인기를 연구해 왔고 XQ-58A 발키리가 그 결과라고 합니다. 

일회용 로켓모터가 달린 트레일러에서 발사돼 터보팬 엔진으로 비행하며, 공대공/공대지 페이로드는 1천 파운드, 전투행동반경은 2,000해리 가량이라고 합니다. 임무완료 후에는 낙하산으로 착륙한다고 하네요. 비용도 저렴해서 1개 비행대대분인 F-35 18대를 조달할 비용으로 300대 이상의 LCAAT와 지원장비를 구입할 수 있다고 합니다. 

https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/11/as-f-15s-leave-okinawa-an-opportunity-to-change-indo.html

As F-15s Leave Okinawa, an Opportunity to Change Indo-Pacific Air Tactics with Unmanned Options

COMMENTARY

(Breaking Defense)

Senior Airman Allyssa Helma prepares to marshal an F-15C Eagle onto the flightline for Red Flag-Alaska at Kadena Air Base, Japan, April 15, 2022

Photo by Airman 1st Class Sebastian Romawac/U.S. Air Force

by David A. Ochmanek

November 28, 2022

The U.S. Air Force recently announced that it plans to withdraw its force of F-15C/D fighter aircraft from their home at Kadena Airbase in Okinawa. While the immediate strategic implications may be debatable, the announcement highlights both the need and the opportunity for the Air Force to revamp its force posture in the Western Pacific and elsewhere. Analysis suggests a relatively new technology could play a major role in any future posture: autonomous, runway-independent air vehicles.

Given that the National Defense Strategy has placed top priority on deterring aggression by China, subtracting combat aircraft based in a front-line allied nation seems counterintuitive, and it reflects some of the dilemmas facing the Air Force as it tries to manage an aging and shrinking fleet of fighters.

The F-15s are among the oldest fighters in the USAF's inventory, and the service announced that for the time being it plans to offset their withdrawal from Kadena with rotational deployments of more-modern fighters. But sustaining a rotational presence on Okinawa could add to the stress on a force that has, for many years now, been hard-pressed to meet demands for fighter presence elsewhere in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

Longer-term options currently under consideration include re-establishing forward stationed fighter squadrons at Kadena with fifth-generation fighters or growing the overall size of the USAF's fighter fleet to support rotational deployments. But these options lack a supplemental dash of creativity, considering the strategic need to be fulfilled.

A relatively new technology could play a major role in any future posture: autonomous, runway-independent air vehicles.

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The first question that may need to be addressed concerns the viability of Okinawa and other forward locations as loci for operations of land-based aircraft. On the one hand, Okinawa is an attractive hub for air operations in defense of Japan or Taiwan because of its proximity to the area of operations. Fighter aircraft have limited range, such that without aerial refueling, their combat radius extends only 500 miles or so from their bases.

However, Okinawa is also within range of numerous Chinese ballistic and cruise missile systems. In a war, the Chinese would be able to devote many hundreds of missiles to the task of destroying parked aircraft, runways, fuel storage, and other targets associated with U.S. and Japanese air forces on the island. Attacks on this scale could overwhelm active defenses, such as Patriot surface-to-air missiles. China wields the most potent threat, but U.S. and allied air forces face similar threats from Russia, North Korea, and even Iran.

For this reason, the USAF has been experimenting with one solution that could solve two problems: the necessity of a runway and the high cost of losing the aircraft to enemy fire. Namely, the service is looking at unmanned aircraft that can be launched, recovered, serviced, and relaunched without reliance on runways or other fixed facilities. The XQ-58 Valkyrie is representative of this new class of air vehicles termed low-cost, attritable aircraft technologies (LCAATs).

The XQ-58, which has made several successful test flights, is launched from a trailer with small, disposable rocket motors. Its turbofan engine then sustains its flight. A derivative of this test article could have a payload of air-to-surface or air-to-air weapons in excess of 1,000 pounds and a combat radius greater than 2,000 nautical miles.

On returning from its mission, it lands with a parachute. Mobile teams can then refuel, rearm, and relaunch the aircraft. By freeing airpower from its dependence on fixed infrastructure, this concept might largely nullify U.S. adversaries' massive investments in conventional ballistic and cruise missiles. (The Marine Corps' F-35B, which can take off and land vertically, offers similar advantages.)

The other attractive feature of the LCAAT is cost: For the price of procuring the 18 F-35s that would constitute a deployed squadron, the Air Force could buy more than 300 LCAATs and support equipment. A modest number of these could be used in peacetime to supplement manned fighter operations in forward areas, but most would be stored, like munitions, in warehouses and dispersed into the field when needed.

By exploiting the tactics of mass, families of runway-independent aircraft such as the LCAAT could overwhelm enemy defenses.

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The LCAAT is not a stealthy, high-performance aircraft. It will not be as survivable or versatile as state-of-the-art fighters such as the F-22 or F-35. But by exploiting the tactics of mass, families of runway-independent aircraft such as the LCAAT could overwhelm enemy defenses, supporting attacks by other types of standoff weapons and manned fighters.

In sum, as it considers its future force mix and posture in the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere, the Air Force today has options that go beyond traditional platforms. Among them are rapidly maturing concepts for generating and sustaining high-tempo operations in forward areas with autonomous, runway-independent air vehicles.

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David Ochmanek is a senior international/defense researcher at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.

This commentary originally appeared on Breaking Defense on November 28, 2022. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.

https://udayton.edu/udri/_resources/docs/lcaat-capabilities.pdf (LCAAT 프로그램 브로셔)

https://afresearchlab.com/technology/successstories/xq-58a-valkyrie/ (AFRL의 XQ-58A 발키리 홈페이지) 2019년 3월 5일 첫 비행했고 2020년 1월 23일 계획된 4번째 시험비행을 완료했네요. 그 뒤 COVID-19로 계획이 지연되고 있다고 합니다. 

[백선호]

300대의 LCAAT가 18대의 F-35A가 할 일을 할 수 있냐가 촛점이겠네요. 2,000 파운드 폭탄으로 단단한 표적을 부수는 일은 LCAAT로는 절대로 못하니 그 일은 다른 수단에게 넘겨야 하고요.

[Minowski(김유철)]

300대 라면 중국의 동중국해 방공망을 포화시켜 버릴 수 있을 것 같긴합니다. 그냥 뇌피셜이지만 탄두 1t에 총 무게 10t 이하(그러니까 킨잘의 2배...)의 공중발사 극초음속미슬을 싸게 만들어 B21에 2~4기 달고 레이드 뛰도록 공간만드는 용도로 쓸수 있지않을까요?

[백선호]

1991년 걸프전쟁 첫 날의 TALD같은 역할을 하는 셈으로 보면 되겠죠? 이 때는 TALD가 100대 이상 날아갔다고 하네요.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADM-141_TALD#Operations

[백선호]

또는 요런 개념의 최신 버전.

https://cafe.daum.net/NTDS/51Tp/162

[Minowski(김유철)]

옙. TALD 보다는 더 다양한 경로로 더 유연하게 다양한 임무를 부여하여 활용할 수 있는 무인기가 있다면 역시나 공세적으로 쓰고 싶어지는게 인지상정아닐지.. ^^;;; 여담입니다만 만약 러시아가 중국정도의 전자공업 생산능력만 있어도 MIG 21같은 구형기체들 디코이나 간이형 순항미슬 용도로 우크라이나 하늘을 날며 장렬하게 산화하고 있었을거라 봅니다.. 지난번 중국의 J7 드론화 구상처럼..