SYDNEY — Hot, dry weather will persist across Australia's east coast for at least another three months, the country's weather bureau said on Thursday (May 30), in a forecast that threatens to severely crimp agricultural production.
There is just a 30 per cent chance that Australia's east coast will receive average rainfalls between June 1 and Aug 30, the Bureau of Meteorology said in its winter outlook.
While the dry weather will grip just the east coast, the bureau said there is at least a 70 per cent chance that the entire country will record warmer than average temperatures over the next three months.
This might be good news for beachgoers, though. Warm waters around the coast might last "well into June", said Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke in a May 20 report by The Sydney Morning Herald.
Mr Dutschke said sea temperatures closer to Sydney's coast were approximately 21°C and about a degree warmer than last year, although that "might vary slightly from beach to beach".
He added that seas off Australia's east coast had been "taking longer to cool than usual" due to the warmer than average weather and a lack of low-pressure systems bringing colder water to the surface.
"There are signs of a cold front coming that (could) cool things down a bit, but it will probably stay warmer than average for much of winter, depending on how many low-pressure systems we get off the coast," he said.
The Bureau of Meteorology's forecast would extend drought conditions that have devastated agricultural production across Australia's east coast into a third year.
It will fuel concern over the outlook for crops, particularly wheat, the country's biggest rural export, said Mr Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"There is already growing anxiety about the lack of rainfall in Australia's cropping regions," said Mr Gorey.
Australia's chief commodity forecaster said in March it expected wheat production to rebound 38 per cent in 2019/20 to 23.9 million tonnes, but cautioned that rains were urgently needed.
With the poor seasonal conditions, some private analysts have already started to lower their estimates to around 18 million tonnes.
Lower east coast production could also force Australian food producers to make rare imports.
Australia's Department of Agriculture and Water Resources earlier this month approved the first shipment of wheat into the country in more than a decade. AGENCIES