4월 2주차_리서치뷰 여론조사_지지율 및 투표율

<div> <img width="320" class="txc-image" id="A_277F063F5884C40E05AF71" style="clear: none; float: none;" src="https://t1.daumcdn.net/cfile/cafe/277F063F5884C40E05" border="0" vspace="1" hspace="1" actualwidth="320" data-filename="5.jpg" exif="{}" id="A_277F063F5884C40E05AF71"/>안녕하세요 아우구스투스입니다. 이번에는 14일 금요일에 한국갤럽과 같이 결과가 나온 지난 20대 총선에서 다른 여론조사 기관에 비해서 가장 정확한 결과예측을 보여준 리서치뷰입니다. 먼저 기사 보시죠.<a class="con_link" href="http://www.pressian.com/news/article.html?no=155862" target="_blank">http://www.pressian.com/news/article.html?no=155862</a><div align="left"><div class="og"><div class="box"><div class="thumb b_size"><a href="http://www.pressian.com/news/article.html?no=155862" target="_blank"></a></div><div class="txt"><img class="m20" alt="" src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.naver.net%2Fblank.gif"></div></div></div></div> 리서치뷰는 100% 무선 및 100% ARS 방식으로 다른 여론조사와의 차이가 있으며 특히나 한국갤럽과는 큰 차이를 보이고 있습니다. 먼저 지지율 보시죠.<table width="514" style="width: 388pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;"><col width="86" style="width: 65pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2752;" span="5"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">기본</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">문재인</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">안철수</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">홍준표</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">심상정</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">유승민</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">1주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">42.4%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">35.1%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">10.3%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">2.2%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">2.5%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">46.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">36.5%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">8.8%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">2.4%</td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">차이</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">3.6%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">1.4%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">-1.5%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">0.8%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">-0.1%</td></tr></tbody></table>▶문재인 후보가 3% 이상 상승하면서 격차를 9.5%까지 벌렸습니다. 워낙 기존에도 7.3%의 차이가 있었으니 타 여론조사에 비해서는 차이가 있는데 그 차이가 꽤 벌어진 것을 보실 수 있습니다.▶리서치뷰에서도 홍준표 후보의 하락세는 멈출 줄을 모릅니다. 그럼 투표의향층에서의 지지율 보시죠.<table width="514" style="width: 388pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;"><col width="86" style="width: 65pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2752;" span="5"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">투표</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">문재인</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">안철수</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">홍준표</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">심상정</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">유승민</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">1주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">43.1%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">35.6%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">10.5%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">2.4%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">2.3%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">46.3%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">37.2%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">8.7%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">2.3%</td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">차이</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">3.2%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">1.6%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">-1.8%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">0.6%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">0.0%</td></tr></tbody></table>▶사실 리서치뷰는 투표의향층 워낙 높기 때문에 기존 지지율과 큰 차이를 보이진 않고 있습니다. 다음은 투표를 하겠다고 대답한 투표층 및 보정 투표층의 투표율을 한번 보시겠습니다.<table width="682" style="width: 514pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;"><col width="86" style="width: 65pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2752;" span="5"><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;" span="2"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt; mso-height-source: userset;"><td width="84" height="44" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 33pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);" rowspan="2">연령</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);" rowspan="2">3월말기준 유권자수</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">투표층</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">보정(1)-15%</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">보정(2)-20%</td><td width="86" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 65pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">투표층 투표차수</td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">보정(1) 투표자수</td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">보정(2) 투표자수</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">19~29세</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">    7,422,677 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">94.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">79.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">74.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">    6,977,316 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">   5,863,915 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">   5,492,781 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">30대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">    7,491,114 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">93.1%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">78.1%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">73.1%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">    6,974,227 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">   5,850,560 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">   5,476,004 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">40대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">    8,752,673 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">94.7%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">79.7%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">74.7%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">    8,288,781 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">   6,975,880 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">   6,538,247 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">50대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">    8,466,159 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">96.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">81.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">76.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">    8,127,513 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">   6,857,589 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">   6,434,281 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">60대이상</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">  10,286,758 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">96.4%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">81.4%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">76.4%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">    9,916,435 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">   8,373,421 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">   7,859,083 </td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">합계</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">  42,419,381 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">95.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">80.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">75.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">  40,284,272 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">  33,921,365 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">  31,800,396 </td></tr></tbody></table> ※유권자수는 3월말 기준 유권자수로 맞췄습니다.▶제가 말씀드린 것처럼 투표를 하겠다는 의향이 엄청난 수준으로 평균 95%에 달하기에 15%와 20%를 내린 보정을 해봤습니다.▶특이하게도 리서치뷰에서는 50대 이상의 투표의지가 높고 30~40대가 상대적으로 낮게 나오고 있는 상황이 보여집니다. 그렇다면 보정(1)과 보정(2)로 한번 시뮬레이션을 살짝 돌려보겠습니다. 1.보정(1) 80%의 투표율<table width="643" style="width: 481pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;" span="2"><col width="95" style="width: 71pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3040;" span="5"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: transparent;"> </td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 63pt; background-color: transparent;">비율</td><td width="95" style="border-width: 1pt 0px 0.5pt; border-style: solid none; border-color: windowtext black; width: 71pt; background-color: transparent;">문재인</td><td width="95" style="border-width: 1pt 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-color: windowtext black windowtext windowtext; width: 71pt; background-color: transparent;">안철수</td><td width="95" style="border-width: 1pt 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-color: windowtext black windowtext windowtext; width: 71pt; background-color: transparent;">홍준표</td><td width="95" style="border-width: 1pt 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-color: windowtext black windowtext windowtext; width: 71pt; background-color: transparent;">심상정</td><td width="95" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 71pt; background-color: transparent;">유승민</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: transparent;">유권자수</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">   41,951,015 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">46.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">36.5%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">8.8%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">2.4%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: transparent;">적극투표인수</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">   33,546,828 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">46.3%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">37.2%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">8.7%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">2.3%</td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: transparent;">투표율</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">80.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);"> 15,532,181.53 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);"> 12,479,420.15 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">   2,918,574.07 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">   1,006,404.85 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">      771,577.05 </td></tr></tbody></table> 2.보정(2) 75%의 투표율<table width="643" style="width: 481pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;" span="2"><col width="95" style="width: 71pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3040;" span="5"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: transparent;"> </td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 63pt; background-color: transparent;">비율</td><td width="95" style="border-width: 1pt 0px 0.5pt; border-style: solid none; border-color: windowtext black; width: 71pt; background-color: transparent;">문재인</td><td width="95" style="border-width: 1pt 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-color: windowtext black windowtext windowtext; width: 71pt; background-color: transparent;">안철수</td><td width="95" style="border-width: 1pt 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-color: windowtext black windowtext windowtext; width: 71pt; background-color: transparent;">홍준표</td><td width="95" style="border-width: 1pt 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-color: windowtext black windowtext windowtext; width: 71pt; background-color: transparent;">심상정</td><td width="95" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 71pt; background-color: transparent;">유승민</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: transparent;">유권자수</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">   41,951,015 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">46.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">36.5%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">8.8%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">2.4%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: transparent;">적극투표인수</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">   31,463,261 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">46.3%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">37.2%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">8.7%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">2.3%</td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: transparent;">투표율</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">75.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);"> 14,567,489.96 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);"> 11,704,333.19 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">   2,737,303.73 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">      943,897.84 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">      723,655.01 </td></tr></tbody></table> ★큰 의미는 없는게 어차피 비율은 그대로고 표가 얼마나 나올지를 보여주는 정도만 있네요. ※리서치뷰는 60대와 70대이상으로 나뉘어졌기에 이 부분은 따로 표본을 계산해서 넣어봤습니다.※3자구도 관련해서는 연령별 분석과 지역별 분석에 따로 추가했습니다. ◈리서치뷰는 확실히 무선 100%에 ARS라서 그런지 몰라도 문재인 후보의 지지율이 좀 높은 편입니다.◈게다가 투표의향층이 너무나 높기에 적극투표층과 기본투표층의 지지율 차이가 거의 없는 편이긴 합니다.◈어쩌면 100% ARS이기때문에 샤이지지층이 면접에 비해서는 더 잘 나올 수 있지 않나 예상됩니다.◈투표의향층의 연령별 비율이 타 여론조사기관과 좀 다르다는 점이 독특합니다.◈금요일 발표이다보니까 유치원 사태가 타 여론조사보다는 좀더 들어갔을 가능성도 있다고 봅니다. 이상 리서치뷰 여론조사의 투표율 및 지지율 관련 자료였습니다. <div class="autosourcing-stub-extra"></div> <a class="tx-link" href="http://cafe.daum.net/ASMONACOFC" target="_blank"></a> </div>출처 : <a href="http://blog.naver.com/wenly23/220984914953">http://blog.naver.com/wenly23/220984914953</a>