전투기 덴마크와 네덜란드, 우크라이나에 F-16 공급

[위종민]

덴마크와 네덜란드가 우크라이나에 F-16을 공급하기로 결정했네요. 덴마크는 19기의 F-16을 공여할 예정이며 2024년 1월 6기 가량이 인도될 예정입니다. 네덜란드의 공급 수량은 확정되지 않았으나, 현재 네덜란드는 F-16을 42기 운영중이며 2024년 말까지 QRA (Quick Reaction Alert) 임무에 투입될 예정입니다. 

미 유럽 및 아프리카 공군 사령관 제임스.B.헤커 장군은 8월 18일 우크라이나는 2024년까지 기본적인 F-16 운영능력을 갖추지 못할 것이고, 숙련도를 높이는 데에 4~5년 가량이 걸릴 수 있다고 얘기했습니다. F-16은 마법의 탄환이 아니라 이미 제공된 공대지 무기의 사용을 용이하게 하는 도구라고 발언했네요. 

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/denmark-netherlands-f-16-ukraine-capabilities

What capabilities will the Dutch and Danish F-16 fighters bring to Ukraine?

BYCLEMENT CHARPENTREAU

2023-08-21

4 MINUTE READ

The Presidential Office of Ukraine

After months of spearheading an international coalition to supply Ukraine with US-designed F-16 fighter jets, Denmark and the Netherlands have both officially pledged to deliver their respective fleet.  

This commitment comes days after the United States gave its formal approval for Denmark and the Netherlands to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.  

The announcements were made during a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Netherlands and Denmark on August 20 and 21, 2023. 

“In light of Russia’s brutal and unprovoked aggression, Denmark and the Netherlands, supported by the US, share the conviction that continued support to Ukraine is of utmost importance,” the governments of both countries said in a joint statement. “We agree to transfer F-16 aircraft to Ukraine and the Ukrainian Air Force in close cooperation with the U.S. and other partners, when the conditions for such a transfer are met. Conditions include, but are not limited to, successfully selected, tested and trained Ukrainian F-16 personnel as well as necessary authorizations, infrastructure and logistics.” 

Copenhagen will supply a total of 19 F-16 fighters to Kyiv, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said, with six to be delivered around January 2024. In late June 2023, the Royal Danish Air Force (RDAF), known as the Flyvevåbnet, announced that it would retire its fleet of F-16 fighter jets from service as early as 2024 or 2025, contrary to an existing plan to keep them operational until 2027, to make them available to Ukraine.

The Netherlands did not specify how many aircraft would be supplied, with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte only stating that the country has a fleet of 42 F-16s. The Dutch Air Force previously planned to continue flying the F-16 until the end of 2024 to conduct Quick Reaction Alert (‎QRA) missions.

Thank you, Denmark!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇰#F16sforUkraine pic.twitter.com/pyIbW2PoAt

— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) August 20, 2023

“Another step to bolster Ukraine’s sky shield is F-16s,” Zelenskyy said. “We will use these jets to keep Russian terrorists away from Ukrainian cities and villages.” 

Ukrainian pilots will not be trained before 2024 

The timeline for delivery depends on the training of the Ukrainian pilots and technicians designated for operating and servicing the aircraft. In an online meeting with the Defense Writers Group, General James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe, US Air Forces Africa, and NATO Allied Command, clarified the training situation. 

A pool of 32 Ukrainian pilots was selected, out of which eight were found to possess the necessary English proficiency to begin training. The remainder will receive terminology lessons in the United Kingdom. The selected cadets are young, with Ukraine keeping its most experienced pilots on the frontlines. 
 
“Then they’re going to get a little bit more training on propellers, and then go down to France and fly in the Alpha Jet for a little bit,” Hecker said, as reported by the Air & Space Forces Magazine. 

Popularly referred to as the “Gadget” in France, the Alpha Jet, also known as Alphajet, stands as a dual-seater twin-jet aircraft created collaboratively by Dassault Aviation and Breguet. Originally conceived for both training and close air support, this aircraft emerged from a collaborative effort between France and Germany. Operating since 1979, it has been a cornerstone of the French Air Force’s pilot training, taking over the role from the Fouga CM.170 Magister. 

The French Air and Space Force recently retired its Alpha Jet E jet trainer fleet, transitioning to the Swiss-made Pilatus PC-21. Around 30 Alpha Jets were mothballed, while 53 were kept to fulfill the role of “aggressor” during adversary training and to be flown by the Patrouille de France, the country’s main military aerobatic team.  

The final six fighter pilots to train on the Alpha Jet were promoted on March 16, 2023, with the Côte d’Or Training Squadron in Cazaux, near Bordeaux. The facility is likely to undertake the advanced training of Ukrainian pilots in the future. 

France bids adieu to Dassault Alpha Jet as fighter training aircraft

• AVIATION

BYCLEMENT CHARPENTREAU

2023-03-20

The pilots will then move on to receive basic training on the F-16, also known as B-Course. Denmark has been selected as the initial training location for Ukrainian personnel on the F-16 until the construction of a dedicated training center in Romania is completed. According to Hecker, the first Ukrainian pilots will not be ready to fly the F-16 fighter before early 2024. 

What F-16 variant will Denmark and the Netherlands be supplying to Ukraine? 

Denmark and the Netherlands will be providing F-16A/B Block 20 MLU (Mid-Life Update) variants that represent late iterations of the 45-year-old fighter jet. These aircraft were modernized through the MLU program between 2003 and 2005 with enhanced avionics, improved radar systems, and upgraded weaponry. With radars such as the APG66 and missiles like the AIM-120 with a range of up to 150 kilometers, they ensure formidable air superiority. 

The F-16 MLU features a Head-Up Display (HUD) compatible with night operations, a GPS receiver, and a Westinghouse (now Northrop Grumman) AN/APG-66 fire control radar allowing it to carry and fire six AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, with an operational range of 150 kilometers (95 miles). It can drop guided bombs such as the GBU-24 Paveway III or the Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM). This variant of the fighter also possesses the capability to carry Sniper and Litening targeting pods.  

These F-16 fighters will have the capacity to deploy a wide array of bombs and missiles, making them adaptable to various mission profiles for Ukraine. However, these missions will be limited by the training received by pilots. 

“You can get proficient on some weapons systems fairly quickly. But ones like F-16s, it takes a while to build,” Hecker explained, adding that fielding a few F-16 squadrons with a high enough state of readiness could take four to five years. 

As such, their role could initially be limited to defending Kyiv and other large Ukrainian cities from Russia’s cruise missiles such as the 3M54 Kalibr and the Kh-22, or the Iran-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones. 

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/usafe-boss-ukraine-f-16-2024-proficiency/ 

U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon pilots assigned to the 480th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron from Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, prepare to take off from the Fetesti Air Base, Romania, in support of enhanced Air Policing mission April 9, 2022. Aircraft and crews have been working closely with NATO partners and Allies in the Black Sea region to reinforce regional security during the current tensions within the European theater. U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Maeson L. Elleman.

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USAFE Boss: Ukraine Won’t Get the F-16 Until 2024—And Proficiency Will Take Years

Aug. 18, 2023 | By John A. Tirpak

Ukraine won’t get a basic F-16 capability until at least 2024, and developing proficiency with that aircraft “could be four or five years down the road,” Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of U.S. Air Forces Europe and Air Forces-Africa, said Aug. 18.

“It’s going to [take] at least until next year until you see F-16s in Ukraine,” Hecker said at a virtual meeting of the Defense Writers Group.

According to multiple media reports, within the past few days President Joe Biden’s administration gave the necessary official approvals needed for a consortium of countries led by Denmark and the Netherlands to start training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16. The U.S. has also provided formal assurances that it will fast-track any requests from those countries to transfer their older F-16s to Ukraine that they are trading out for newer aircraft like F-35s.

Yet Hecker downplayed the significance the F-16s may have in helping Ukraine combat Russia’s invasion, saying the capability won’t be a “silver bullet” but will simply ease Ukraine’s use of air-to-ground weapons already being provided. His comments echo previous remarks from Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, who have said F-16s won’t be a “game-changer” or “magic weapon,” respectively.

“What the F-16 will give them is, it’s going to be more interoperable with the current weapons that we’re giving them now,” Hecker said. “Right now, weapons that we’re giving them have to be adapted to go on the MiG-29 or go on the Su-27, or something like that.”

The U.S. has provided Ukraine with weapons including the AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile, which has been seen flying on Ukrainian MiG-29s, which Hecker called “a pretty capable aircraft.” However, Ukraine has asked Western nations for F-16s in part because the MiG-29 is a Russian design and parts are difficult to get to keep the fleet flying.  

The air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons provided by NATO nations and partners are “already interoperable” with the F-16, “so that will help out and give them the added capability. But it’s not going to be the silver bullet, [that] all of a sudden they’re going to start taking down SA-21s [Russian surface-to-air missiles] because they have an F-16,” Hecker said.

Hecker added that the cadre of pilots undergoing F-16 training are very junior and will need seasoning to become proficient with the fighter—they “barely have any hours at all. So they’re not currently fighting in the war,” Hecker said.

POLITICO reported that Ukraine has selected 32 pilots for F-16 training, but only eight are sufficiently proficient in English to begin training. The others are “getting language training in the U.K.,” Hecker said.

“Then they’re going to get a little bit more training on propellers, and then go down to France and fly in the Alpha Jet for a little bit,“ the USAFE commander added. “That all is going to take time. And that’s probably not going to happen before the end of the year. So that takes a while to make that happen. So that’s why it’s going to be at least until next year until you see F-16s in Ukraine.”

Hecker’s prediction matches comments from a Ukrainian air force spokesman, who said on state television this week that F-16s will not arrive this autumn or winter. John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, had previously suggested the fighters may arrive toward the end of 2023, but that timeline was seen as ambitious.

Whenever the F-16s do arrive in Ukraine, reaching proficiency will take even more time, Hecker warned.

“To get proficient in the F-16, that’s not going to happen overnight. You can get proficient on some weapons systems fairly quickly. But ones like F-16s, it takes a while to build … a couple squadrons of F-16s, and to get their readiness high enough, and their proficiency high enough. I mean, you’re talking, this could be four or five years down the road.”

In the short term, the F-16s “will help a little bit, but it’s not the silver bullet,” he repeated.

U.S. officials have consistently downplayed the significance of F-16s in the Russia-Ukraine war. Kirby noted in July that “it’s not our assessment that the F-16s alone would be enough to turn the tide.”

The fighter would offer benefits, though. Hecker said that F-16s with AIM-120 AMRAAM dogfight missiles will likely just push Russian forces back a bit further. The NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) is already in service with Ukraine, and the rounds of that system are AMRAAMs modified for surface launch.

Ukrainian F-16s with AMRAAMs could shoot down Russian aircraft, “but all Russia has to do is stay out of the range of the AMRAAMs,” Hecker said, noting the Russians have already started doing that and adapted by moving command posts further away from the front lines when a new, longer-ranged artillery system or other weapon is introduced.

Importantly, F-16s won’t be able to “chase down” Russian aircraft over Russian territory, “because you’ll get shot by one of the Russian surface-to-air missiles,” Hecker said.

Overall, Russia’s failure to quickly achieve air superiority after its full-scale invasion was a surprise to USAFE, Hecker said, noting that Russia built Ukraine’s air defense systems and likely had good insight into how to defeat them.

“I think that most everybody thought that [Russia] would be able to take out the IADS (Integrated Air Defense System) in Ukraine such that they were going to … be able to get air superiority,” he said.

And while air superiority is a tall order, Hecker indicated that Russia “kind of gave up on that pretty early on.” The Russian air force has lost dozens of aircraft in the fight and as a result has seemingly decided not to fly within range of Ukraine’s air defenses, he added.

Instead, Russia adapted by sending unmanned aircraft bought from Iran and cruise missiles launched from bombers at targets in Ukraine, without risking further combat aircraft or crews. Those tactics have proved “relatively successful,” Hecker said, because while Ukrainian air defenses knock down most of the incoming drones and missiles, some still get through.

As for the state of Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive, Hecker acknowledged that “it started off a little slow [but] we’ve seen it pick up slightly since then.”

Russia has slowed that progress in part by heavily mining areas, forcing the Ukrainian forces to methodically neutralize them, Hecker added.

[백선호]

RUSI의 Justin Bronk는 우크라이나공군 정비사들이 갑자기 F-16 정비의 고수가 될 리는 없고, 결국 미국과 유럽의 F-16 정비사 출신 민간인들이 가서 해야만 할 것인데, 갈 사람이 과연 있는가, 그리고 간다면 이들이 러시아의 미사일 공격에 노출될 것이라고 보네요.

https://twitter.com/Justin_Br0nk/status/1692871469619974335

[위종민]

이라크도 F-16 자체 정비를 못하고 조기 폐기를 하네 마네 하고 있으니까요. 그래도 자체적인 산업 역량이 있는 곳이라 정비역량을 키우기는 할 텐데 그 시간까지가 문제이겠네요.

[위종민]

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/us-train-ukrainian-pilots-f-16-air-national-guard-base/

애리조나주 투산의 모리스 공군기지 162비행단에서 우크라이나 조종사와 정비사 교육을 실시한다고 합니다. 텍사스주 래클랜드 공군기지에서 영어교육도 실시한다고 하네요.

162비행단에선 외국인 조종사들에게 F-16 훈련을 실시하고 있다고 하니 한국 공군 파일럿들 중에서도 우크라이나 파일럿들과 같이 훈련하는 분들이 있을 수 있겠네요.