4월 3주차_한국갤럽 여론조사_적극투표층 분석

<div> <img width="320" class="txc-image" id="A_277F063F5884C40E05AF71" style="clear: none; float: none;" src="https://t1.daumcdn.net/cfile/cafe/277F063F5884C40E05" border="0" vspace="1" hspace="1" actualwidth="320" data-filename="5.jpg" exif="{}" id="A_277F063F5884C40E05AF71"/> <a class="tx-link" href="http://cafe.daum.net/ASMONACOFC" target="_blank"></a>안녕하세요 아우구스투스입니다. 이번에는 전통적인 여론조사의 강자 한국갤럽의 4월 3주차 여론조사 관련 분석입니다. 일단 기사 보시죠.<a class="con_link" href="http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/04/21/2017042101111.html" target="_blank">http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/04/21/2017042101111.html</a><div align="left"><div class="og"><div class="box"><div class="thumb s_size"><a href="http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/04/21/2017042101111.html" target="_blank"></a></div><div class="txt"><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/04/21/2017042101111.html" target="_blank"><div class="tit"> </div></a></div></div></div><div align="left"><img class="m20" alt="" src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/relay/cafe/original/?fname=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.naver.net%2Fblank.gif"></div></div>기사에서도 보시다시피 안철수 후보의 지지율 하락이 심각한데요. 먼저 지지율부터 보시겠습니다.<table width="468" style="width: 351pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;" span="2"><col width="76" style="width: 57pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2432;"><col width="75" style="width: 56pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2400;"><col width="65" style="width: 49pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2080;"><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">기본</td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 63pt; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">문재인</td><td width="76" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 57pt; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">안철수</td><td width="75" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 56pt; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">홍준표</td><td width="65" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 49pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">심상정</td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 63pt; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">유승민</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">1주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">38.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">35.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">7.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">4.0%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">40.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">37.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">7.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">3.0%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0px 1pt; border-style: none solid; border-color: black windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">3주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0px 0px; border-style: none solid none none; border-color: black windowtext black black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">41.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0px 0px; border-style: none solid none none; border-color: black windowtext black black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">30.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0px 0px; border-style: none solid none none; border-color: black windowtext black black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">9.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0px 0px; border-style: none solid none none; border-color: black windowtext black black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">4.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0px 0px; border-style: none solid none none; border-color: black windowtext black black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">3.0%</td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">차이</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">1.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">-7.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">2.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">1.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 1pt 1pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">0.0%</td></tr></tbody></table>▶갤럽은 상당히 보수적입니다. 그렇기때문에 4월 1주차에 안철수 후보의 급상승이 이슈가 되었는데요.▶또한 전화면접때문인지 몰라도 새누리계열 지지세가 약한 대신에 민주당과 국민의당이 높게 나오기도 합니다.▶무엇보다도 이슈 반응이 느린데 아마도 2주차에 적용된 이슈가 3주차에 나온듯 합니다. <table width="468" style="width: 351pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;" span="2"><col width="76" style="width: 57pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2432;"><col width="75" style="width: 56pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2400;"><col width="65" style="width: 49pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2080;"><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">투표</td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 63pt; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">문재인</td><td width="76" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 57pt; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">안철수</td><td width="75" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 56pt; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">홍준표</td><td width="65" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 49pt; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">심상정</td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 63pt; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">유승민</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">2주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">42.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">36.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">7.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">2.0%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0px 1pt; border-style: none solid; border-color: black windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">3주차</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0px 0px; border-style: none solid none none; border-color: black windowtext black black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">43.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0px 0px; border-style: none solid none none; border-color: black windowtext black black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">30.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0px 0px; border-style: none solid none none; border-color: black windowtext black black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">9.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0px 0px; border-style: none solid none none; border-color: black windowtext black black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">4.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0px 0px; border-style: none solid none none; border-color: black windowtext black black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">3.0%</td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: rgb(217, 217, 217);">차이</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);">1.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);">-6.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(177, 160, 199);">2.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);">1.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 1pt 1pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);">1.0%</td></tr></tbody></table>▶투표 의향층도 별반 다를바 없네요. 문재인 후보만 조금 높을 뿐 거의 기본 지지율과 동일합니다.▶갤럽의 이런 성향을 봤을때 다른 반전을 기대하기는 힘드네요. ◈ 국민의당과 안철수 후보 캠프측에는 상당히 절망적인 자료라고 봅니다. 다른 자료는 그래도 민주당에게 웃어주는 자료다 라고 위안도 가능하고 무선 100%라서, ARS라서라고 할 수 있지만 갤럽은 유선도 섞인데다가 면접자료거든요.◈ 가장 느린 전파속도를 지닌 여론조사지만 그만큼 신뢰도도 확실하며 무엇보다도 갤럽은 가장 느리고 추세를 반영하는만큼 갤럽마저 추세를 반영한다는 것은 그 이슈가 상당한 파급력을 지녔고 지속성까지 지녔다고 볼 수 있습니다.◈ 이런면에서 그나마 안철수 후보에게 다행인 것은 찾아보려고 해도 솔직히 말할 게 없어보이긴 합니다. 그렇다면 3주차 투표의향층 및 보정투표율을 한번 보시죠.<table width="244" style="width: 183pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;" span="2"><col width="76" style="width: 57pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2432;"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border: 0.5pt solid windowtext; border-image: none; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">연령</td><td width="84" style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 63pt; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);"> 3주차 </td><td width="76" style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 57pt; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">보정(-14%)</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">19~29세</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">86.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">72.0%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">30대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">94.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">80.0%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">40대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">91.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">77.0%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">50대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">88.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">74.0%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">60대이상</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">92.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">78.0%</td></tr></tbody></table>▶갤럽은 전반적으로 20대의 투표의지가 좀 약한 것으로 나옵니다. 그렇다면 1,2,3주차와의 비교분석 보시죠. <table width="698" style="width: 524pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;" span="2"><col width="52" style="width: 39pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1664;" span="4"><col width="77" style="width: 58pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2464;"><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;" span="2"><col width="77" style="width: 58pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2464;"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="44" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 33pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);" rowspan="2">연령</td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);" rowspan="2">3월말기준 유권자수</td><td width="52" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 39pt; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);" rowspan="2">1주차</td><td width="52" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 39pt; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);" rowspan="2">2주차</td><td width="52" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext windowtext black; width: 39pt; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);" rowspan="2">3주차</td><td width="52" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 39pt; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);" rowspan="2">보정(-14%)</td><td width="77" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 58pt; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);" rowspan="2">1주차</td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);" rowspan="2">2주차</td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext windowtext black; width: 63pt; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);" rowspan="2">3주차</td><td width="77" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 58pt; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);" rowspan="2">보정</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">19~29세</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">   7,422,677 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">82.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">85.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">86.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">72.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  6,086,595 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   6,309,275 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0px 0.5pt; border-style: none none solid; border-color: black black windowtext; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   6,383,502 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  5,344,327 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">30대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">   7,491,114 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">88.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">91.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">94.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">80.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  6,592,180 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   6,816,914 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0px 0.5pt; border-style: none none solid; border-color: black black windowtext; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   7,041,647 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  5,992,891 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">40대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">   8,752,673 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">87.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">96.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">91.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">77.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  7,614,826 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   8,402,566 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0px 0.5pt; border-style: none none solid; border-color: black black windowtext; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   7,964,932 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  6,739,558 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">50대</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">   8,466,159 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">87.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">86.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">88.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">74.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  7,365,558 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   7,280,897 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0px 0.5pt; border-style: none none solid; border-color: black black windowtext; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   7,450,220 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  6,264,958 </td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">60대이상</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">  10,286,758 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">88.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">91.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">92.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">78.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  9,052,347 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   9,360,950 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0px 0.5pt; border-style: none none solid; border-color: black black windowtext; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   9,463,817 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  8,023,671 </td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">합계</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(221, 217, 196);">  42,419,381 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">86.5%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">90.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">90.3%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);">76.3%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);"> 36,711,506 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  38,170,602 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">  38,304,119 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);"> 32,365,406 </td></tr></tbody></table>▶그래도 20대가 조금씩 올라갔고 전반적으로 1주차 대비 많이 올라갔네요. 다만 40대가 2주차 대비 많이 내려갔는데 이건 2주차가 너무 높았던거라 판단하는게 옳아보입니다. 간단한 시뮬레이션 돌려보겠습니다.<table width="763" style="width: 576pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col width="84" style="width: 63pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2688;" span="2"><col width="41" style="width: 31pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1312;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="41" style="width: 31pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1312;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="41" style="width: 31pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1312;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="41" style="width: 31pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1312;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"><col width="41" style="width: 31pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1312;"><col width="78" style="width: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2496;"></colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td width="84" height="22" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext; width: 63pt; height: 16.5pt; background-color: transparent;"> </td><td width="84" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 63pt; background-color: transparent;">비율</td><td width="119" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 90pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">문재인</td><td width="119" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 90pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">안철수</td><td width="119" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 90pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">홍준표</td><td width="119" style="border-width: 1pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext windowtext black; width: 90pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">심상정</td><td width="119" style="border-width: 1pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; width: 90pt; background-color: transparent;" colspan="2">유승민</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: transparent;">유권자수</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   42,419,381 </td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);" colspan="2">41.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);" colspan="2">30.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);" colspan="2">9.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" colspan="2">4.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0.5pt 1pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext black; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);" colspan="2">3.0%</td></tr><tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"><td height="22" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 16.5pt; background-color: transparent;">적극투표인수</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 0.5pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">   32,365,406 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);" rowspan="2">43.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(141, 180, 226);" rowspan="2"> 13,917,124 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);" rowspan="2">30.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(196, 215, 155);" rowspan="2">   9,709,622 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);" rowspan="2">9.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(204, 192, 218);" rowspan="2">   2,912,887 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">4.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(252, 213, 180);" rowspan="2">   1,294,616 </td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);" rowspan="2">3.0%</td><td style="border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0.5pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext; background-color: rgb(183, 222, 232);" rowspan="2">      970,962 </td></tr><tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"><td height="23" style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 1pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: black windowtext windowtext; height: 17.25pt; background-color: transparent;">예상투표율</td><td style="border-width: 0px 0.5pt 1pt 0px; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: black windowtext windowtext black; background-color: rgb(242, 220, 219);">76.3%</td></tr></tbody></table>▶투표의향층의 지지율로 시뮬레이션 돌려보니 차이가 확 드러납니다. 1위와 2위가 약 4백만표 이상 차이가 나네요.▶투표율은 지난 대선의 투표율과 유사하며 문재인 후보는 1,400만표를 조금 덜 얻게 되면서 이전 대선보다는 득표수가 적네요. 이것으로 한국갤럽 여론조사의 적극투표층 분석을 마치겠습니다.다음은 연령별 분석으로 돌아오겠습니다. <div class="autosourcing-stub-extra"></div> </div>출처 : <a href="http://blog.naver.com/wenly23/220991626943">http://blog.naver.com/wenly23/220991626943</a>