이창용 한국은행 총제, 한국 경제학회 연차총회 연설입니다. 조건부 포워드 가이던스, 유
동성을위한 대출 지원 시설 마련, 중립 금리에 대한 내용을 담고 있습니다.
https://www.bis.org/review/r240214q.htm
glossary
1.Korean Economic Associations Annual Meeting : 한국경제학회 연차총회
2.Conditional Forward Guidance : 조건부 포워드 가이던스(음차함)
*포워드 가이던스란? : 중앙은행이 향후 경제상황에 대한 평가를 토대로 미래의 토화정책 방향을 예고하는 새로운 통화정책 커뮤니케이션 수단
3.A three-month horizon : 3개월 시계(視界) / BoK’s Dot Plot : 한국은행 점도표
*이 horizon은 projection horizon(전망 시계)에서 파생된 말로 추측. 전망 시계란 향후 3년동안의 경제 전망을 의미한다.
*Dot Plot은 점도표로서 2~3년 동안의 경제 전망을 나타낸다.
4. Lending Support Facility : 대출 지원 체제/제도/시설
5. Neutral interest rate : 중립적 실질 금리
*점도표를 통해 제시하는 정책 금리의 장기 전망치이며, 자연이자율(금리)라고도 한다. 자연금리는 인플레이션을 자극하지 않는 기준 금리 수준을 말한다.
<편집된 원문 : 511 words, 5분32초>
I would like to express my gratitude to you for inviting me to this congratulatory dinner celebrating the 2024 Korean Economic Associations Annual Meeting. I am also thankful to the many professors here who have provided significant assistance to the Bank of Korea over the years through a wide range of research and consultations.
The first topic is "Conditional Forward Guidance." Recently, the Bank of Korea has been explaining the views of Monetary Policy Board members on the policy rate over a three-month horizon. In the media, this is referred to as the "BOK's Dot Plot." It is considered to be a new attempt, departing from the tradition of maintaining as much "strategic ambiguity" as possible, by not clearly mentioning any future interest rate policy.
There may be disagreement regarding which communication strategy will be more desirable for the Korean economy, between forward guidance and strategic ambiguity. On the one hand, there is concern about the possibility that market volatility may increase if the future policy path is clearly outlined but then the policy changes in a different direction due to sudden shifts in economic conditions and outlook. On the other hand, there is the contrasting opinion that if the central bank effectively convinces economic agents that policies may change in response to changes in the assumptions underlying the forecasts, they may adapt more proactively to changes in economic conditions, leading to market stabilization.
The second topic revolves around the utilization of the Bank of Korea's Bank Intermediated Lending Support Facility. The Bank of Korea selectively provides low-interest funds to banking institutions based on their performance in lending to SMEs. The program currently stands at around 30 trillion won. There are conflicting views as to whether the Bank of Korea should continue this program. Some argue that it falls within the domain of fiscal policy, rather than that of a central bank, as it is essentially designed to redistribute credit to specific sectors. Others emphasize that, given the nature of interest rate policy, in that it affects the economy indiscriminately, the burden of sustaining a high-interest rate policy can be mitigated by providing selective and temporary support to vulnerable sectors that are more likely to be adversely affected by tightened monetary policy.
The third topic is the estimation of the neutral interest rate. As you know, estimating the neutral rate, which would support the economy at potential output while keeping inflation constant, plays a crucial role in determining the monetary policy stance. In the case of Korea, if we do not take external factors into account too much, there is a possibility that the neutral interest rate will decline in the long run driven by internal factors such as demographic shifts due to the low birthrate and the population aging.
Contrastingly, there is a view that developed economies, especially the U.S., might see a reversal in the downtrend of their neutral interest rate/ as fiscal deficits are expected to widen,/ investment demand to increase significantly in response to climate change,/ and productivity to rise due to technological innovations, such as AI.