Re:번역은 아니고 요약입니다.

[perspex]

내용이 워낙 광범위하고 복잡해서 하나 하나 번역하기는 시간도 , 지식도 없구요. 간추려서 내용만 이야기합니다. 틀린 부분이 있으면 다른 분이 도와주시기 바랍니다. 큰 기대는 마시구요. 다른 곳으로 퍼가지는 않으셨으면 좋겠습니다. 방대한 내용에 비해 요약이 워낙 부실합니다.

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Use the above link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of several smallcap companies positioned to rise during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by compromised central bankers and inept economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system, urgently pushed after the removed anchor of money to gold. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

현재 상황에 대한 냉소입니다. 잘못된 중앙은행시스템과 잘못된 경제적 조언들이 이제까지 역사상 있어본 적이 없는 난잡한 상황을 만들었다는 의미입니다. 이 분석은 금과 원유, 미국의 달러화와 국채등에 대한 내용입니다.

The Paradigm Shift continues to displace the power centers and introduce new ones. Those bright souls who ignore the shift will be well prepared for systems that soon do not stand. The Americans are the last to know, oblivious to the global shift in progress. They continue to seek a return to normalcy, when old conditions are as gone as a baby’s innocence during teen years. The crux of the matter is that the United States is no longer in control of its fate. Meetings with creditor nation leaders result in new orders given, and new policy directives enacted. Comparisons are made to China, but they too are a distraction. China can embark on its own path, can stimulate with huge sums of money, since they have actual savings. The US has massive debts, as insolvency has infiltrated to destroy systems pertaining to banking, home mortgages, federal operations, and industry. The nation is as hollowed out as its leaders are compromised. The major theme of this decade is USGovt leaders working hidden agendas. To be sure, tremendous stress is at work within USGovt agencies, ministries, and elsewhere. My focus is primarily on the financial impacts, never to be swayed by official stories and pronouncements.

금융-경제시스템에 파라다임 쉬프트가 일어나고 있는걸 미국과 미국인들만 모르고 혹은 무시하고 있다고 합니다. 미국인들은 그저 모든게 원래대로 (미국이 주도하던 경제시스템의 상태로) 돌아갈것을 기대하고만 있습니다.  그러나 중요한 점이 하나 있습니다. 미국은 더 이상 그 자신의 운명을 컨트롤할 수 있는 주체가 아니라는 것입니다. 미국의 채권을 쥐고 있는 나라들과의 미팅을 통해서 나온건 미국이 해야할 일들이지, 미국이 누구에게 해라 마라고 한 일들이 아닙니다. 예를 들어 중국의 경우는 그들의 돈으로 경기부양책을 실시 할 수 있는 상황입니다. 그러나 미국은 그저 빚만 지고 있으며, 그 영역은 은행과 주택융자, 연방정부의 운영과 산업분야에 이르기까지 광범위하여 거의 이 시스템을 운영할 수 없는 상황에 처해있습니다.

 SHOCKS, STRESSES, BREAKDOWNS, PLANS

Back to reality on US soil. Many reports have come to the effect that at the end of August, a financial breakdown is due, and a shutdown of US banks is planned. We await the trigger events with mystery and intrigue as overtones. Some on Wall Street, arrogant to the end, believe that widespread awareness prevents the actual unfolding of events. They are suffering from a terminal disease though, as they believe they are in control. They are not. The USGovt creditors are in control. The August Hat Trick Letter reports have identified five major factors pointing to a severely stressful period of time at the end of August and into September. The FDIC is scheduled to release its Second Quarter Report that could reveal up to 1000 banks expected to croak, surely enough to exhaust their rescue fund by between 20-fold and 100-fold. Tin cups are heading to the USCongress committees. The USGovt federal limit must be extended again, and Treasury Secy Geithner has requested a $12.1 trillion limit. That limit must be extended sometime again soon, like before next spring 2010. Maybe September 15th and March 15th could be declared Debt Limit Extension dates officially, and make them national holidays. The nation could celebrate debt. Details are in the report, but surely not a blow by blow outline, since a crystal ball is not an office feature.

많은 리포트들이 예견했던것처럼 8월 말경에 금융시스템이 붕괴하지 않을가 하는 이야기가 있었고, 이미 은행들이 한동안 문을 닫을 것은 알려져 있습니다. 무엇이 이 상황 즉 붕괴를 촉발할 것인지에 대해 신경을 곤두세우고 있는데도 월스트릿은 아직도 자신들이 금융시스템을 컨트롤 할 수 있다고 생각하는것으로 보입니다. 아닙니다. 미국의 채권자(혹은 국가)들이 컨트롤하고 있습니다. 이미 1000개 정도의 은행이 자신들에게 주어진 구제금융액수들을 훨씬 상회하는 빚을 지고 있음이 알려져있으며 이들을 구제하려면 다시 빚갚는 데드라인을 계속 연기시키는 방법밖에 없습니다.

To be sure, many tripwires are laid out from the systemic complexity and lost control, not to mention haphazard design and frenzied defense. A massive juggling act is taking place, as US bank and political leaders are juggling more balls, and heavier balls with each passing month. The risk of accidents is rising exponentially from incredible backroom movement of massive funds to avert disasters on a weekly basis. WHEN IT COME THE ACCIDENTS, PLANNED EVENTS, OR UNEXPECTED RESPONSES TO MINOR DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SYSTEM, TREMENDOUS COLLATERAL DAMAGE WILL ARRIVE, BUT THE PRECIOUS METALS WILL STAND TALL AND ENDURE EFFECTIVELY, EVEN THRIVE. See gold, silver, and platinum, at least. The broken parts and ‘bad apples’ are likely to be eliminated in a flash. We will see. People will be hurt, and life savings will take hits. Even communication lines will be interrupted. Power structures will dissolve. We are approaching historically unprecedented times. The signs are omnipresent, often ignored.

미국의 정치인들과 금융관계자들은 저글링 (공을 돌리면서 노는 놀이)을 하고 있는데, 점차 공의 수도 많아지고 있고 공의 무게도 커지는 저글링을 하는 중입니다. 사고가 터질 확률은 어마어마하게 증가하고 있다는 의미입니다. 만약 사고가 터지면, 이제까지 한번도 경험해보지 못한 시기가 올겁니다. 예를 들어 사람들이 다쳐고 의료시스템이 작동하지 못하는것, 통신라인의 붕괴, 발전라인의 붕괴등이 그중 예라고 할 만합니다.

My best sources of information report that some unexpected deep shocks are coming from USGovt creditor nations. They are simply fed up, frustrated, and astonished at the manner of lost control, spiraling debts, and blatant monetization amidst lies in denial of that same monetization. The USTreasury auctions now have domestic hidden elements, and  global hidden monetization elements. The USFed is purchasing through Permanent Open Market Operations the bonds grabbed by the primary dealers. Some of the auctions are actually underbid, and fortunately for the statistics, the bid/cover ratio includes obligated dealer bids. The USFed liberally uses its USDollar Swap Facility to enable strong bids by foreign central banks, except that they are highly likely coming from USFed accounts on foreign soil, or else from money lent by the USFed itself. Warning after warning have come not to monetize, not to debauch the USDollar currency, not to permit skyrocketing deficits. Yet they continue, and worse, little if any reform or actual stimulus has occurred. Mainly what we witness is more channeled funds to the big banks, more coverage of credit derivative fires, and more announcements of bond support. See the $1.25 trillion support for Fannie Mae bonds, aka USAgency Mortgage Bonds. The Green Shoots have now been dismissed as a marketing ploy. The Stress Tests have now been dismissed as a marketing ploy. The Stimulus Plan has now been dismissed as a marketing ploy. The only USEconomic recovery will be a statistical recovery. A Jobless Recovery is a recovery for stocks and a redemption for the bankers. Main Street continues to be discarded.

The next shock is most likely to come from USGovt creditors, the holders of vast sums of USTreasury Bonds. They are ready to begin a salvage operation, whether coordinated or not (who knows?), that results in massive sales well over $100 billion in magnitude, maybe several hundred billion$ worth. They have stated to the USGovt their concerns about lost valuation, lost integrity, and continued threat of debasement. They are frustrated that not only are USGovt deficits enormous and unprecedented in size, but further expansive programs like Health Care are in planning stages. The creditors regard the US political and banking leaders as living in a world divorced from reality, and thus require shock treatment. USTreasury Bonds have become a liquidation currency. Actions in the Persian Gulf and European region indicate that USTBonds are being used in liquidation and distressed sales on a truly massive scale. The failed Dubai construction projects are involved in the former, the Chinese expansion (some say carpetbaggers) are involved in the latter. Details appear in the August HTLetter reports. My forecast made in September 2008, almost one full year ago, of a USTreasury Bond default has been almost uniformly mocked, denigrated, and dismissed as an impossibility. Get back to me in a few months! In fact, the widespread restructuring of USTreasurys by the creditors is a massive global project underway. The shift from long-term to short-term USTreasurys by the Chinese is but one piece. The conversion by several parties to hard assets is another. Eventually, the USGovt will work toward a formal writedown in the debt and a conversion to property, industrial plant, energy and mineral rights, farmlands, and more. That will constitute the default, but it will be denied.

미국의 채권을 지니고 있는 당사자들은 현재 미국의 금융시스템과 경제의 리더들이 한번 충격을 좀 봐야 하는 ‘현실과 유리된 바보들’이라고 평가하고 있고, 현재 실제로 여러곳에서 미국의 국채가 유동성완화를 위해 사용되고 있다는 점과 거의 바보취급을 받고있다는 이야기를 하고 있습니다. 워낙 많이 풀린데다가 가치가 없다고 여겨져서 정크수준으로 취급된다는 의미입니다. 다른 부분은 생략합니다.

As a last footnote, never overlook the continued urgent Chinese initiative to ‘spend’ their USTBonds quickly, for useful tangible purposes, before any damaging sequence of events occurs. Simon Black (aka the International Man) wrote, “I have been spending a lot of time this week talking to my sources in China, one of whom is inside one of the country’s sovereign wealth funds (SWF). He also indicated that the SWF analysts were working around the clock trying to put deals together. For China it is a race against the clock for how fast they can convert their $2 trillion in USDollar holdings into strategic assets, namely oil and gold. At today’s deflated prices, putting together a really good billion dollar deal is a difficult thing to do. Putting together 2000 of them is impossible. Doing it before the dollar collapses? Not a Chinaman’s chance. And they know it.”

중국이 현재 보유중인 미국의 국채를 어떤식으로 빠른 시간안에 원유나 금등으로 바꿀수 있는지 고려중이라는 내용입니다. 달러가 붕괴하기 전에 해야하는데 과연 가능할까?  정도의 의미로 보입니다.

USDOLLAR, USTBOND, AND GOLD

The USDollar is clearly the weakest link stress point. In fact, the battle for gold has morphed into a bilateral quiet war between the United States and China. The US has debts and a powerful military, with retained control of the US$ Printing Press, not to mention significant institutions of financial controls and levers. The Chinese have a staggering savings account, in the form of a few key sovereign wealth funds, with ongoing trade surplus accumulation, and a shiny new industrial sector. The USGovt pours out new USTreasury Bonds to cover its debts. The Chinese exact severe but hidden terms for continued credit support. Lost sovereignty is a process, not an event! More details in the August HTLetter reports.

Whatever the machinations in the new World Financial War, watch the performance of the USDollar, the USTreasurys, and Gold. They are each signaling significant changes in the near-term, as in the next several weeks or few months. In my basic view, the breakdown in the US$, the rise in the 10-year TNote yield, and the breakout over $1000 in gold will all occur when China decides to make them happen. It is on their timetable, not ours.

The US$ DX index experienced a critical bearish moving average crossover in July, mentioned in past public articles. The attempt to rebound off 77 lows has been met with very strong 79 resistance, like a brick wall. The goofy story that the USEconomy will lead the European Economy out of the recession is patent nonsense. Today’s news reported that the EU contracted by the same 0.1% in its Gross Domestic Product, the economic growth. Thus the Euro rally has lifted its exchange rate back to 143 again, and the USDollar has lost its vaporous momentum. This chart is worth reviewing almost on a weekly basis. The next stop will be 77, serving as a speed bump, with thin support to offer. Then later, when the threat to the USGovt debt structure is obvious to all, the US$ DX index will find the bottom at 72, which will be scraped for a time. Eventually though, the monetary crisis will blossom and hit the front page of newspapers, rather than recovery in fragmentary notices, and the DX index will find a low by next year around 60-65. Talk will surface of a shot in the arm, a boon to exporters, except that the US industrial sector is thoroughly hollowed out. Can anyone remember the benefits promised from Low Cost Solutions from shipping US industry to China from years 2002 to 2005? What incredible mythology propaganda!

미국의 달러화가 약해져간다는 도표입니다. 자세한 내용은 모르겠구요.

The USTreasury Bond is buidling pressure of its own. Shown is the ‘TNX’ that indicates the 10-year USTreasury Note yield. It is caught in a rising trend. The cylicals point upward, and the moving averages are rising. The 4.0% level is a the line in the sand, it seems. Any USEconomic recovery, even a tepid one, even a false one, will likely be accompanied by a surprising rise in price inflation. The Exit Strategy for the US Federal Reserve is best described as a man trying to emerge from a StraitJacket; they have none. Drain the liquidity and force an economic collapse from credit constriction, hardly a workable plan. The alternative is more of the same, incredible volumes of continued debt issuance, and eventual spillover. The Deflation Knuckleheads have been quiet in recent weeks. They failed to notice that the rising US stock market, seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Index and S&P500 Index, is actually evidence of price inflation. It is not evidence of recovery of any sort. The next USEconomic shock is the rising cost structure from a declining USDollar, whose billboard warnings are totally overlooked by economists.

미국 국채의 수익률같습니다. 수익률이 높아진다는 것은 국채가격이 낮아진다는 의미이며, 그만큼 잘 안팔린다는 의미입니다. 국채는 나중에 받기로 된 가격이 정해져있기때문에, 수익률이 높아지는 것은 살때가격이 하락한다는 뜻입니다. (수익률 = 나중에 받기로 정해진 돈/살때의 가격). 자세한 내용은 생략 (잘 모름)  

Prepare for a gold rally and breakout. Patience is key, to be amply rewarded. A major gold reversal since last autumn is still in progress. Remember: the longer the wait before breakout, the bigger the breakout, and the fewer the beneficiaries riding the train. With so many rebuffs at the $1000 mark, few expect that level to be overcome. It will be surpassed when China gives the word: GO. Notice the rising moving averages, the positive cyclical, and the rising near-term trendline. Pressure has continued to build for a few months, almost enough to bore the observer and reader. So be it! It adds up to a breakout that will be more powerful than anticipated by so-called experts. Perhaps one of several trigger events will push gold over the $1000 mark. Perhaps a perception of US banks being dead again. Perhaps a massive USTreasury dump event on the global stage. Perhaps a surprising military event in the Middle East. Perhaps simple summer vacations and lack of desk defense. Maybe some political return to prudence. It almost does not matter, since time might be the ultimate determinant.

금가격의 추세입니다. 금은 화폐대신 자주 사용되는 가치환산방법이며, 대개 달러가 가치하락할때 많이 올라갑니다. 2008년의 경우 달러가 붕괴하기 시작하면서 금의 가격이 엄청나게 오른 것을 볼 수 있습니다. 온즈당 1000달러는 일종의 심리적 저항선인데, 필자에 의하면 다소의 등락은 있지만, 금가격의 상승추세는 막을수 없다 정도인것 같습니다.

STRESS POINTS TOO NUMEROUS

Jobs continue to be lost, with exaggerations and deceptions rampant. Seasonal adjustments and continued Birth-Death Model hokum continue to be relied upon. The end of the General Motors plant shutdown, and the magnificent but costly ‘Clunker’ rebate program do not a recovery make. Almost half a million people fell off the state unemployment insurance system in July, which was hailed as evidence of a recovery. The home prices continue to fall, but less quickly. The home loan delinquencies and foreclosures continue unabated, up 7% from June to July alone. The USGovt has become the pathetic new Subprime Lender of last resort, statistical details provided in HTLetter reports. The ugly story in the housing market is the hidden overhang of bank-owned (REO) properties, which bankers withhold from the market. So the home inventory figures are much worse than reported. The people and investment community desperately want a recovery to occur. Their lack of economic savvy permits them to be betrayed and misinformed consistently. They do not realize that debt cream cannot heal debt wounds from deep knife cuts at the hands of job loss and home equity loss. They do not realize that redemption of worthless mortgage bonds held by the big banks does not constitute a reform of the banks, who still hold deeply impaired bonds on their balance sheets, or rather off their balance sheets. They do not realize that ballooning USGovt deficits have failed to rebuild or revive American industry, which still lies in China. Nationalization is not Reconstruction.

미국에서 나오는 수많은 경제지표 이야기들중 최근에 경기가 바닥을 쳤다는 보고들이 있으나, 죄다 통계상의 장난일뿐이며 실제적인 정보를 제공받지 못하는 일반시민들은 한마디로 ‘빚을 통해서 빚을 갚는다는 것은 근본적으로 불가능하다’는걸 모른다는 문장들입니다. 실제로 미국의 주택차압률은 점차 낮아지는 것처럼 보이고, 주택가격의 하락도 어느 정도 진정된것 처럼 보이지만, 차압된 주택들을 가지고 있는 은행들이 이를 통계에 적용하지 않아서 생기는 오류가 아주 많습니다. 이러한 실제 정보가 공개될 경우 아마 패닉이 올겁니다. 이런 가짜 정보를 믿는 서민만 불쌍한거지요.

Plummeting tax revenues come when President Obama and USCongress pile up major deficits, from stimulus plans, from bank rescues, and expansion of health care. The numbers are worse than fiction. Tax receipts are on pace to drop 18% this year, the biggest single-year decline since the Great Depression. An Associated Press analysis provides details on the recession’s impact and federal insolvency. Social Security tax receipts could drop for only the second time since 1940, and Medicare taxes are on pace to drop for only the third time ever. Thus pressures build for more hidden monetization, and more retaliation by creditor nations.

The service sector, which makes up nearly 90% of the USEconomy, unexpectedly shrank at a faster pace in July than in the previous month. So economic activity continued to decline last month despite the propaganda promulgated by prattle specialists. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported Wednesday that its non-manufacturing index declined to 46.4 last month from 47 in June. It was the first decrease since March. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, while readings above 50 represent expansion. Their report monitored business activity, employment, order backlogs and new orders, including those for export. They all declined slightly more in July than the previous month.

세금부분이나 서비스 부분등 미국경제를 지탱하는 분야들의 계속적인 고전을 이야기하는 중입니다. 내용이 복잡해서 패스.

DeutscheBank forecasts 48% of all US mortgage loans to be underwater by 2011. Ouch! Borrowers of loan products with already high underwater rates will only grow worse. By 2011, DBank predicts 89% of Option ARM borrowers will be underwater, up from 77% in 2009. That is correct, 77% of current Option ARM mortgages are stuck with negative equity, upside down. That is a recovery??? No! It is the source of further home price declines, to any analyst that features a brain stem. They expect the rate of underwater subprime borrowers to increase from 50% to 69%, and underwater Alt-A borrowers to increase from 49% to 66%. Then there is the commercial mortgage wrecking ball soon to hit the financial bank structures. The $3.5 trillion commercial real estate market is eroding. Defaults are doubling on loans for apartment buildings, office buildings, housing complexes, strip malls, hotels, hospitals. A staggering amount of loans must be rolled over this year into refinancing, or else go bust with liquidation to follow. Prices in commercial real estate have fallen about 39% from the peak in mid 2007, according to the MIT Center for Real Estate, with no signs of improvement or abatement.

마찬가지로 현재는 모기지로 인한 불량금융시스템이 감추어져있지만 드러나게 될것이라는 내용.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair believes up to 500 more banks could fail, according to conversations between US senators and Bair from recent meetings. That story received little if any coverage. The real number is 1000 banks, from Bair’s own conversations. Little banks are dropping like flies, and we are due for a big bank to fail very soon. No need to guess, since accidents will be random among the crippled edifices. The biggest bailed out banks merely invest in USTreasurys, capturing easy profits from the steep yield curve. Lastly, prepare for a big surprise. AIG will soon be forced to reveal it is bankrupt again, encountering another painful failure, despite all its falsified reports of revival. It is dead, even after $180 billion in aid. AIG has been busy conducting a shell game to move assets from recently audited subsidiaries to the next subsidiary to be audited, in order to hide its neverending bust played out. It is a veritable Black Hole under the USGovt roof. For each and every sector of the ailing defunct landscape, one can safely said THAT AINT RECOVERY, FOLKS!! Stimulus, rescue, bailouts, nationalizations, and more USDollar ruination lie directly ahead. Gold will thrive in the coming months, as panic sets in.

최근 미팅에서 FDIC의 의장인 Shelia에 의하면 대략 500개 정도의 은행이 파산할것으로 보기 있습니다. 하지만 필자는 1000개 정도로 보는군요. 작은 은행들은 이미 엉망이고, 조만간 큰 은행들이 망하는걸 볼겁니다.

[풀루토]

수고에 감사 드립니다. 요약해 주신 내용으로도 도움이 많이 됩니다. 앞으로도 요약 기대해 보겠습니다.

[빛나리]

수고 많은 셨습니다. 장문을 번역하는 일이 작은 일이 아닌데.....감사드립니다. 글을 읽으면서 왜 미국에 폭동이 일어나야 하고 계엄령이 발휘되면서 사회주의 국가로 탈바꿈 해야 하는지 알수 있는 좋은 정보 입니다.

[빌라델비아]

노고에 감사드려요~달러로 외환을 보유한 한국도 영향을 적잖게 받을것 같아 걱정입니다. 마라나타,,,

[빛나리]

저와 같은 생각이시군요. 여러 정황을 살펴볼 때 미국 경제의 침몰과 더불어 달러 가치의 급격한 가치하락의 변화가 예상되지만 이런 내용의 이야기를 어떻게 전달해야 할지.....

[perspex]

엄밀히 말하자면, 한국은 미국에 있어서 파트너라기보다는 봉에 가깝습니다. 달러가치의 순간적인 붕괴가 찾아오는 경우, 미국이 한국의 필요가치를 인정한다면 정부를 중심으로 준비기간을 줄 것이고, 아니라면 일본이나 중국과는 다른 대우를 받을겁니다. 일본과 중국은 준비기간을 분명히 줍니다. 현재 달러가치가 1200원대로 유지되는 것은 세계 경기의 유동성강화상황에서 오히려 안정적인 자산으로 대체할만한 대상이 없기때문이기도 하고, 또한 어느 순간 폭락할 가치를 통해 현재의 시스템을 유지하는 분들의 이익을 보전해주기 위한 마지막 찬스정도로 보아야 하지 않나싶습니다.

[perspex]

폭풍직전이 훨씬 고요한 법이듯이, 촛불이 꺼지기 직전에 가장 환히 타오르듯이... 달러는 그 수명을 다 해가면서도 마지막으로 그 가치를 태워서 밝은 척 하는 거 아닌가 싶습니다. 달러가치의 완전한 상실로 외환의 가치가 제로가 된다면 한국은 기본적으로 디폴트를 선언해야 하지 않는가 싶습니다. 다만, 지난번 IMF와 다르게 여러 나라들이 한꺼번에 그리 되겠지요. 중국과 일본에도 타격이 갈겁니다. 다만 어느 정도의 손실을 보전해주는 선에서 마무리를 보지 않을까 싶네요. 달러는 순식간에 사라집니다. 저는 이번에 미국통장에 있던 돈 (그래봐야 천달러 정도)을 모두 뺐습니다. 어머니 생활비 드려야해서요...-_-;;;

[파란하늘]

수고 많이하셨고 현상황을 이해되도록 도우셔서 감사드립니다..... 결국 이렇게 가는군요...

[빛나리]

경제를 잘 알지 못해서 어떻게 하는 것이 좋은 방법인지 모르겠지만 한국은행에서 외환보유고를 금으로 바꾸면 그 파장이 보다 적지 않을까요? 미국의 변화가 경제에 미치는 영향 뿐만아니라 힘의 균형에 있어서도 세계에 끼치는 영향이 실로 엄청날 것이라서...그 여파가 어디까지 미칠지 짐작이 되질 않는군요?

[돌마을]

번역하시느라 수고하셨습니다. 그리고 고급정보에도 감사드리고요...^^*

[perspex]

한국은 미국의 국채를 세계에서 많이 가진 나라 넷중 하나입니다. 만일 한국이 이 국채와 달러를 다른 형태의 자산으로 바꾸기 시작하면 즉시 국제외환시장에서 티가 나게 되어있습니다. 미국이 절대 그냥 있지 않지요. 그런 의미에서 중국이나 일본은 자산을 변화시키려고 할때 미국이 어느 정도의 여유를 두지 않을까 라는겁니다. 한국은 채권자이지만 채권자가 아닌 셈이라 봅니다. 빚을 너무 많이 진 사람은 어느 순간부터인가 권력을 행사하는게 인간법칙이지요. 실상 일본의 경우는 더 심각한 상태로 알고 있구요.

[perspex]

일본은 국채를 바꾸려고 마음을 먹어도 그러지 못하는걸로 들었습니다. 그러나 일본이 가지는 국제경제의 위상때문에, 미국은 일본이 원하면 어느 정도의 변환을 허락하지 않을까라는게 제 생각입니다. 단, 일본도 이 과정을 미국에게 미리 알려주어야 합니다. 미국이 빚을 많이 지고 있다는 이유와 달러가 기축통화라는 두가지 이유가 빚쟁이들에게 깽을 부릴 수 있는 여지를 허락하는거지요. 실제로 과거에 이라크가 석유대금 결제를 유로로 하기로 결정했던 것이 미국이 이라크를 침공한 여러가지 이유들 중 하나이기도 합니다. 한국에게는 그저 미국이 잘 봐줘야 하는것 말고는 방법이 없는게 아닌가 싶네요.