정치 4월 4주차_여론조사 종합편_지역별분석

[아우구스투스]

출처 : http://blog.naver.com/wenly23/221000360935

안녕하세요 아우구스투스입니다.

빠른 작성을 위하여 코멘트는 최소화하겠습니다.

활용된 여론조사는 4월 4주차의 알앤써치, 리얼미터, 리서치뷰, 한국갤럽 여론조사 그리고 5월 1주차 KSOI 여론조사입니다. 4월 26일부터 30일까지 발표된 자료이며 관련된 기사들은 제 블로그의 해당 여론조사 분석에 모두 링크를 해두었습니다.

이 분석은 지극히 유권자 개인의 분석임을 밝히며 모두 여론조사의 나열과 개인적인 감상임을 밝힙니다.

그럼 시작하겠습니다.

1탄인 적극투표층 분석입니다.

http://blog.naver.com/wenly23/221000050597

2탄인 연령별분석입니다.

http://blog.naver.com/wenly23/221000056773

기본 지지율 보시죠.

정례조사	문재인	안철수	홍준표	심상정	유승민
1주차	41.0%	34.6%	9.1%	3.1%	2.8%
2주차	44.0%	36.3%	8.0%	3.1%	2.5%
3주차	43.7%	31.5%	9.8%	4.4%	3.8%
4주차	43.5%	23.9%	14.5%	6.8%	4.6%
차이	-0.2%	-7.6%	4.7%	2.4%	0.8%

그럼 각 여론조사별 후보들의 지역별 지지율을 한번 쭉 나열하겠습니다.​

문재인	알앤써치				리얼미터				리서치뷰				한국갤럽				KSOI				종합
	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	5월	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차
서울	40.0%	42.3%	45.2%	47.6%	45.8%	46.3%	49.6%	46.0%	38.4%	47.1%	43.7%	51.7%	35.0%	39.0%	38.0%	42.0%	40.1%	47.2%	39.6%	45.6%	39.9%	44.4%	43.2%	46.6%
경기	40.9%	43.6%	49.3%	45.9%	44.7%	47.9%	47.6%	45.2%	42.6%	46.7%	44.1%	44.4%	42.0%	43.0%	45.0%	43.0%	43.4%	51.1%	48.0%	45.4%	42.7%	46.5%	46.8%	44.8%
인천	40.9%	43.6%	49.3%	45.9%	44.7%	47.9%	47.6%	45.2%	42.6%	46.7%	44.1%	44.4%	42.0%	43.0%	45.0%	43.0%	43.4%	51.1%	48.0%	45.4%	42.7%	46.5%	46.8%	44.8%
부산	39.3%	43.2%	46.3%	40.6%	45.2%	44.6%	43.3%	48.9%	42.7%	47.9%	41.7%	45.2%	41.0%	41.0%	40.0%	39.0%	42.2%	47.4%	42.1%	40.3%	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%	42.8%
울산	39.3%	43.2%	46.3%	40.6%	45.2%	44.6%	43.3%	48.9%	42.7%	47.9%	41.7%	45.2%	41.0%	41.0%	40.0%	39.0%	42.2%	47.4%	42.1%	40.3%	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%	42.8%
경남	39.3%	43.2%	46.3%	40.6%	45.2%	44.6%	43.3%	48.9%	42.7%	47.9%	41.7%	45.2%	41.0%	41.0%	40.0%	39.0%	42.2%	47.4%	42.1%	40.3%	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%	42.8%
대구	30.6%	32.7%	25.0%	27.9%	30.1%	30.5%	27.4%	29.4%	34.0%	25.8%	27.3%	34.5%	15.0%	25.0%	24.0%	31.0%	36.2%	26.5%	36.7%	24.3%	29.2%	28.1%	28.1%	29.4%
경북	30.6%	32.7%	25.0%	27.9%	30.1%	30.5%	27.4%	29.4%	34.0%	25.8%	27.3%	34.5%	15.0%	25.0%	24.0%	31.0%	36.2%	26.5%	36.7%	24.3%	29.2%	28.1%	28.1%	29.4%
대전	43.5%	46.8%	46.2%	42.7%	35.0%	44.6%	36.7%	42.8%	46.8%	47.7%	50.0%	47.9%	39.0%	39.0%	46.0%	40.0%	38.3%	46.7%	43.9%	44.4%	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	43.6%
충북	43.5%	46.8%	46.2%	42.7%	35.0%	44.6%	36.7%	42.8%	46.8%	47.7%	50.0%	47.9%	39.0%	39.0%	46.0%	40.0%	38.3%	46.7%	43.9%	44.4%	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	43.6%
충남	43.5%	46.8%	46.2%	42.7%	35.0%	44.6%	36.7%	42.8%	46.8%	47.7%	50.0%	47.9%	39.0%	39.0%	46.0%	40.0%	38.3%	46.7%	43.9%	44.4%	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	43.6%
세종	43.5%	46.8%	46.2%	42.7%	35.0%	44.6%	36.7%	42.8%	46.8%	47.7%	50.0%	47.9%	39.0%	39.0%	46.0%	40.0%	38.3%	46.7%	43.9%	44.4%	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	43.6%
광주	49.8%	43.8%	57.5%	55.9%	46.3%	48.9%	45.9%	55.3%	54.4%	51.4%	51.9%	49.9%	52.0%	47.0%	51.0%	39.0%	50.9%	53.3%	52.0%	52.5%	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%	50.5%
전북	49.8%	43.8%	57.5%	55.9%	46.3%	48.9%	45.9%	55.3%	54.4%	51.4%	51.9%	49.9%	52.0%	47.0%	51.0%	39.0%	50.9%	53.3%	52.0%	52.5%	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%	50.5%
전남	49.8%	43.8%	57.5%	55.9%	46.3%	48.9%	45.9%	55.3%	54.4%	51.4%	51.9%	49.9%	52.0%	47.0%	51.0%	39.0%	50.9%	53.3%	52.0%	52.5%	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%	50.5%
강원	46.5%	37.0%	47.9%	46.3%	36.8%	42.3%	42.3%	28.0%	42.4%	46.0%	42.7%	45.5%	38.0%	40.0%	41.0%	34.0%	35.4%	46.1%	50.4%	44.3%	39.8%	42.3%	44.9%	39.6%
제주	40.8%	42.3%	47.9%	44.3%	28.3%	41.1%	47.9%	30.4%	42.4%	46.0%	42.7%	45.5%	38.0%	40.0%	41.0%	40.0%	35.4%	46.1%	50.4%	44.3%	37.0%	43.1%	46.0%	40.9%

안철수	알앤써치				리얼미터				리서치뷰				한국갤럽				KSOI				종합
	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	5월	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차
서울	33.3%	39.0%	31.3%	23.6%	31.7%	35.9%	30.4%	20.4%	37.3%	36.2%	32.1%	20.9%	39.0%	36.0%	34.0%	26.0%	40.3%	36.1%	35.3%	22.4%	36.3%	36.6%	32.6%	22.7%
경기	32.2%	37.6%	31.2%	24.6%	32.9%	37.4%	30.2%	23.3%	36.7%	36.6%	32.9%	23.9%	34.0%	38.0%	28.0%	23.0%	38.4%	34.3%	30.5%	22.3%	34.8%	36.8%	30.6%	23.4%
인천	32.2%	37.6%	31.2%	24.6%	32.9%	37.4%	30.2%	23.3%	36.7%	36.6%	32.9%	23.9%	34.0%	38.0%	28.0%	23.0%	38.4%	34.3%	30.5%	22.3%	34.8%	36.8%	30.6%	23.4%
부산	27.7%	29.0%	24.5%	24.4%	30.7%	31.0%	32.2%	13.7%	31.9%	32.0%	24.1%	20.0%	25.0%	28.0%	30.0%	21.0%	29.3%	29.2%	33.4%	19.8%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%	19.8%
울산	27.7%	29.0%	24.5%	24.4%	30.7%	31.0%	32.2%	13.7%	31.9%	32.0%	24.1%	20.0%	25.0%	28.0%	30.0%	21.0%	29.3%	29.2%	33.4%	19.8%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%	19.8%
경남	27.7%	29.0%	24.5%	24.4%	30.7%	31.0%	32.2%	13.7%	31.9%	32.0%	24.1%	20.0%	25.0%	28.0%	30.0%	21.0%	29.3%	29.2%	33.4%	19.8%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%	19.8%
대구	23.1%	33.0%	44.0%	28.7%	33.4%	40.1%	35.1%	25.5%	27.8%	44.7%	32.6%	19.5%	38.0%	48.0%	23.0%	19.0%	26.5%	34.1%	31.2%	17.7%	29.8%	40.0%	33.2%	22.1%
경북	23.1%	33.0%	44.0%	28.7%	33.4%	40.1%	35.1%	25.5%	27.8%	44.7%	32.6%	19.5%	38.0%	48.0%	23.0%	19.0%	26.5%	34.1%	31.2%	17.7%	29.8%	40.0%	33.2%	22.1%
대전	25.0%	32.5%	29.4%	35.8%	40.5%	32.0%	37.1%	24.5%	35.6%	33.2%	30.1%	24.2%	42.0%	42.0%	29.0%	30.0%	45.9%	35.0%	34.5%	24.0%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	27.7%
충북	25.0%	32.5%	29.4%	35.8%	40.5%	32.0%	37.1%	24.5%	35.6%	33.2%	30.1%	24.2%	42.0%	42.0%	29.0%	30.0%	45.9%	35.0%	34.5%	24.0%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	27.7%
충남	25.0%	32.5%	29.4%	35.8%	40.5%	32.0%	37.1%	24.5%	35.6%	33.2%	30.1%	24.2%	42.0%	42.0%	29.0%	30.0%	45.9%	35.0%	34.5%	24.0%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	27.7%
세종	25.0%	32.5%	29.4%	35.8%	40.5%	32.0%	37.1%	24.5%	35.6%	33.2%	30.1%	24.2%	42.0%	42.0%	29.0%	30.0%	45.9%	35.0%	34.5%	24.0%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	27.7%
광주	39.0%	47.4%	29.3%	27.3%	41.7%	43.3%	35.9%	31.1%	34.6%	41.4%	36.9%	37.1%	38.0%	36.0%	35.0%	30.0%	43.4%	36.5%	33.5%	32.8%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%	31.7%
전북	39.0%	47.4%	29.3%	27.3%	41.7%	43.3%	35.9%	31.1%	34.6%	41.4%	36.9%	37.1%	38.0%	36.0%	35.0%	30.0%	43.4%	36.5%	33.5%	32.8%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%	31.7%
전남	39.0%	47.4%	29.3%	27.3%	41.7%	43.3%	35.9%	31.1%	34.6%	41.4%	36.9%	37.1%	38.0%	36.0%	35.0%	30.0%	43.4%	36.5%	33.5%	32.8%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%	31.7%
강원	35.7%	48.1%	36.4%	21.2%	33.9%	38.4%	34.6%	35.2%	35.1%	36.5%	28.4%	23.7%	35.0%	37.0%	30.0%	21.0%	49.3%	36.5%	27.1%	29.1%	37.8%	39.3%	31.3%	26.0%
제주	30.9%	37.0%	36.4%	26.1%	36.0%	39.3%	16.7%	27.3%	35.1%	36.5%	28.4%	23.7%	35.0%	37.0%	30.0%	24.0%	49.3%	36.5%	27.1%	29.1%	37.3%	37.3%	27.7%	26.0%

홍준표	알앤써치				리얼미터				리서치뷰				한국갤럽				KSOI				종합
	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	5월	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차
서울	10.3%	8.2%	9.2%	11.4%	9.3%	6.1%	8.0%	11.9%	8.6%	13.1%	9.3%	12.0%	5.0%	8.0%	9.0%	12.0%	6.9%	4.1%	9.0%	16.3%	8.0%	7.9%	8.9%	12.7%
경기	9.2%	7.2%	8.1%	16.2%	6.9%	5.3%	6.5%	10.7%	10.1%	6.7%	7.7%	11.6%	7.0%	4.0%	4.0%	12.0%	3.9%	4.6%	5.6%	14.5%	7.4%	5.6%	6.4%	13.0%
인천	9.2%	7.2%	8.1%	16.2%	6.9%	5.3%	6.5%	10.7%	10.1%	6.7%	7.7%	11.6%	7.0%	4.0%	4.0%	12.0%	3.9%	4.6%	5.6%	14.5%	7.4%	5.6%	6.4%	13.0%
부산	18.0%	15.2%	16.4%	23.2%	13.0%	14.3%	15.6%	19.8%	15.5%	9.0%	21.0%	21.9%	13.0%	13.0%	12.0%	20.0%	12.4%	10.4%	14.0%	21.1%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%	21.2%
울산	18.0%	15.2%	16.4%	23.2%	13.0%	14.3%	15.6%	19.8%	15.5%	9.0%	21.0%	21.9%	13.0%	13.0%	12.0%	20.0%	12.4%	10.4%	14.0%	21.1%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%	21.2%
경남	18.0%	15.2%	16.4%	23.2%	13.0%	14.3%	15.6%	19.8%	15.5%	9.0%	21.0%	21.9%	13.0%	13.0%	12.0%	20.0%	12.4%	10.4%	14.0%	21.1%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%	21.2%
대구	24.6%	15.1%	18.2%	22.7%	14.7%	13.3%	19.0%	22.9%	17.2%	12.7%	22.0%	33.1%	14.0%	8.0%	26.0%	22.0%	14.9%	19.7%	12.5%	36.8%	17.1%	13.8%	19.5%	27.5%
경북	24.6%	15.1%	18.2%	22.7%	14.7%	13.3%	19.0%	22.9%	17.2%	12.7%	22.0%	33.1%	14.0%	8.0%	26.0%	22.0%	14.9%	19.7%	12.5%	36.8%	17.1%	13.8%	19.5%	27.5%
대전	15.9%	9.5%	10.4%	11.1%	8.2%	10.6%	11.9%	9.2%	10.3%	10.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.0%	6.0%	7.0%	7.0%	5.0%	6.3%	8.4%	18.8%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%	11.4%
충북	15.9%	9.5%	10.4%	11.1%	8.2%	10.6%	11.9%	9.2%	10.3%	10.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.0%	6.0%	7.0%	7.0%	5.0%	6.3%	8.4%	18.8%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%	11.4%
충남	15.9%	9.5%	10.4%	11.1%	8.2%	10.6%	11.9%	9.2%	10.3%	10.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.0%	6.0%	7.0%	7.0%	5.0%	6.3%	8.4%	18.8%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%	11.4%
세종	15.9%	9.5%	10.4%	11.1%	8.2%	10.6%	11.9%	9.2%	10.3%	10.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.0%	6.0%	7.0%	7.0%	5.0%	6.3%	8.4%	18.8%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%	11.4%
광주	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	3.0%	1.7%	2.0%	7.1%	2.7%	0.6%	3.9%	2.7%	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.5%	2.8%	2.3%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%	2.5%
전북	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	3.0%	1.7%	2.0%	7.1%	2.7%	0.6%	3.9%	2.7%	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.5%	2.8%	2.3%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%	2.5%
전남	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	3.0%	1.7%	2.0%	7.1%	2.7%	0.6%	3.9%	2.7%	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.5%	2.8%	2.3%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%	2.5%
강원	13.6%	6.1%	4.8%	8.5%	10.8%	14.8%	6.7%	23.6%	10.3%	8.8%	15.6%	15.3%	0.0%	7.0%	9.0%	14.0%	2.4%	1.6%	8.3%	14.6%	7.4%	7.7%	8.9%	15.2%
제주	12.6%	9.1%	4.8%	14.8%	7.8%	2.1%	14.1%	10.6%	10.3%	8.8%	15.6%	15.3%	0.0%	7.0%	9.0%	12.0%	2.4%	2.4%	8.3%	14.6%	6.6%	5.9%	10.4%	13.5%

​너무 많으니 이걸 좀 정리해보겠습니다.

지역	문재인				안철수				홍준표
	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차	1주차	2주차	3주차	4주차
서울	39.9%	44.4%	43.2%	46.6%	36.3%	36.6%	32.6%	22.7%	8.0%	7.9%	8.9%	12.7%
경기	42.7%	46.5%	46.8%	44.8%	34.8%	36.8%	30.6%	23.4%	7.4%	5.6%	6.4%	13.0%
인천	42.7%	46.5%	46.8%	44.8%	34.8%	36.8%	30.6%	23.4%	7.4%	5.6%	6.4%	13.0%
부산	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%	42.8%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%	19.8%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%	21.2%
울산	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%	42.8%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%	19.8%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%	21.2%
경남	42.1%	44.8%	42.7%	42.8%	28.9%	29.8%	28.8%	19.8%	14.4%	12.4%	15.8%	21.2%
대구	29.2%	28.1%	28.1%	29.4%	29.8%	40.0%	33.2%	22.1%	17.1%	13.8%	19.5%	27.5%
경북	29.2%	28.1%	28.1%	29.4%	29.8%	40.0%	33.2%	22.1%	17.1%	13.8%	19.5%	27.5%
대전	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	43.6%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	27.7%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%	11.4%
충북	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	43.6%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	27.7%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%	11.4%
충남	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	43.6%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	27.7%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%	11.4%
세종	40.5%	45.0%	44.6%	43.6%	37.8%	34.9%	32.0%	27.7%	8.5%	8.7%	9.1%	11.4%
광주	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%	50.5%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%	31.7%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%	2.5%
전북	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%	50.5%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%	31.7%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%	2.5%
전남	50.7%	48.9%	51.7%	50.5%	39.3%	40.9%	34.1%	31.7%	1.0%	2.0%	3.4%	2.5%
강원	39.8%	42.3%	44.9%	39.6%	37.8%	39.3%	31.3%	26.0%	7.4%	7.7%	8.9%	15.2%
제주	37.0%	43.1%	46.0%	40.9%	37.3%	37.3%	27.7%	26.0%	6.6%	5.9%	10.4%	13.5%

※지역별로는 표본 자체가 좀 적기때문에 간단하게 참조 정도로만 보시는게 좋 듯 합니다.

※문재인 후보가 전국에서 1위를 차지한것이 눈에 띕니다.

※홍준표 후보와 안철수 후보가 영남에서는 각각 2, 3위를 한 것이 또한 는에 띕니다.

그럼 지역별 투표율 예상을 한번 보겠습니다.

적극투표층입니다.

적극	알앤써치	리얼미터	리서치뷰	한국갤럽	KSOI	적극
서울	68.6%	71.0%	96.3%	91.0%	92.6%	83.9%
경기	67.3%	73.1%	97.8%	89.0%	88.5%	83.1%
인천	67.3%	73.1%	97.8%	89.0%	88.5%	83.1%
부산	60.6%	63.9%	97.4%	88.0%	92.0%	80.4%
울산	60.6%	63.9%	97.4%	88.0%	92.0%	80.4%
경남	60.6%	63.9%	97.4%	88.0%	92.0%	80.4%
대구	59.0%	68.5%	97.5%	84.0%	78.9%	77.6%
경북	59.0%	68.5%	97.5%	84.0%	78.9%	77.6%
대전	73.1%	68.2%	95.3%	88.0%	89.5%	82.8%
충북	73.1%	68.2%	95.3%	88.0%	89.5%	82.8%
충남	73.1%	68.2%	95.3%	88.0%	89.5%	82.8%
세종	73.1%	68.2%	95.3%	88.0%	89.5%	82.8%
광주	74.0%	76.0%	93.6%	95.0%	97.5%	87.2%
전북	74.0%	76.0%	93.6%	95.0%	97.5%	87.2%
전남	74.0%	76.0%	93.6%	95.0%	97.5%	87.2%
강원	60.8%	62.7%	96.5%	98.0%	76.2%	78.8%
제주	66.7%	70.1%	96.5%	89.0%	76.2%	79.7%

보정투표층입니다.

보정	알앤써치	리얼미터	리서치뷰	한국갤럽	KSOI	보정
서울	80.8%	75.6%	81.3%	77.0%	84.6%	79.9%
경기	81.0%	77.2%	82.8%	75.0%	80.5%	79.3%
인천	81.0%	77.2%	82.8%	75.0%	80.5%	79.3%
부산	78.0%	69.5%	82.4%	74.0%	84.0%	77.6%
울산	78.0%	69.5%	82.4%	74.0%	84.0%	77.6%
경남	78.0%	69.5%	82.4%	74.0%	84.0%	77.6%
대구	75.9%	74.0%	82.5%	70.0%	70.9%	74.7%
경북	75.9%	74.0%	82.5%	70.0%	70.9%	74.7%
대전	84.5%	72.2%	80.3%	74.0%	81.5%	78.5%
충북	84.5%	72.2%	80.3%	74.0%	81.5%	78.5%
충남	84.5%	72.2%	80.3%	74.0%	81.5%	78.5%
세종	84.5%	72.2%	80.3%	74.0%	81.5%	78.5%
광주	86.4%	79.0%	78.6%	81.0%	89.5%	82.9%
전북	86.4%	79.0%	78.6%	81.0%	89.5%	82.9%
전남	86.4%	79.0%	78.6%	81.0%	89.5%	82.9%
강원	74.2%	66.0%	81.5%	84.0%	68.2%	74.8%
제주	80.6%	74.9%	81.5%	75.0%	68.2%	76.0%

가볍게 시뮬레이션 돌려보겠습니다.

1.18대 대선 연령별 투표율 기준

지역	20대총선 선거인수	18대 대선 투표율	투표수	문재인	득표수	안철수	득표수	홍준표	득표수
서울	8,427,412	75.1%	6,328,986	46.6%	2,948,041.87	22.7%	1,434,148	12.7%	805,047
경기	9,969,097	75.0%	7,476,823	44.8%	3,348,121.23	23.4%	1,751,072	13.0%	971,987
인천	2,371,674	74.0%	1,755,039	44.8%	785,906.36	23.4%	411,030	13.0%	228,155
부산	2,952,212	76.2%	2,249,586	42.8%	962,822.61	19.8%	444,968	21.2%	476,912
울산	933,463	78.4%	731,835	42.8%	313,225.38	19.8%	144,757	21.2%	155,149
경남	2,711,727	77.0%	2,088,030	42.8%	893,676.75	19.8%	413,012	21.2%	442,662
대구	2,024,624	79.7%	1,613,625	29.4%	474,728.57	22.1%	356,288	27.5%	443,747
경북	2,233,612	78.2%	1,746,685	29.4%	513,874.60	22.1%	385,668	27.5%	480,338
대전	1,213,250	76.5%	928,136	43.6%	404,296.15	27.7%	257,094	11.4%	106,179
충북	1,281,557	75.0%	961,168	43.6%	418,684.67	27.7%	266,243	11.4%	109,958
충남	1,670,478	72.9%	1,217,778	43.6%	530,464.30	27.7%	337,325	11.4%	139,314
세종	165,626	74.1%	122,729	43.6%	53,460.69	27.7%	33,996	11.4%	14,040
광주	1,154,893	80.4%	928,534	50.5%	469,095.36	31.7%	293,974	2.5%	22,842
전북	1,515,768	77.0%	1,167,141	50.5%	589,639.82	31.7%	369,517	2.5%	28,712
전남	1,565,736	76.5%	1,197,788	50.5%	605,122.52	31.7%	379,220	2.5%	29,466
강원	1,269,208	73.8%	936,676	39.6%	371,110.83	26.0%	243,910	15.2%	142,375
제주	490,678	73.3%	359,667	40.9%	147,103.79	26.0%	93,657	13.5%	48,411
계	41,951,015	75.8%	31,810,225	43.5%	13,829,376	23.9%	7,615,880	14.6%	4,645,293

2.적극투표층 기준​

지역	20대총선 선거인수	적극 투표층	투표수	문재인	득표수	안철수	득표수	홍준표	득표수
서울	8,427,412	83.9%	7,070,599	46.6%	3,293,484.86	22.7%	1,602,198	12.7%	899,380
경기	9,969,097	83.1%	8,288,307	44.8%	3,711,503.98	23.4%	1,941,122	13.0%	1,077,480
인천	2,371,674	83.1%	1,971,810	44.8%	882,976.41	23.4%	461,798	13.0%	256,335
부산	2,952,212	80.4%	2,372,988	42.8%	1,015,638.87	19.8%	469,377	21.2%	503,073
울산	933,463	80.4%	750,318	42.8%	321,135.92	19.8%	148,413	21.2%	159,067
경남	2,711,727	80.4%	2,179,686	42.8%	932,905.68	19.8%	431,142	21.2%	462,093
대구	2,024,624	77.6%	1,570,703	29.4%	462,100.91	22.1%	346,811	27.5%	431,943
경북	2,233,612	77.6%	1,732,836	29.4%	509,800.41	22.1%	382,610	27.5%	476,530
대전	1,213,250	82.8%	1,004,814	43.6%	437,696.83	27.7%	278,333	11.4%	114,951
충북	1,281,557	82.8%	1,061,386	43.6%	462,339.53	27.7%	294,004	11.4%	121,423
충남	1,670,478	82.8%	1,383,490	43.6%	602,648.19	27.7%	383,227	11.4%	158,271
세종	165,626	82.8%	137,171	43.6%	59,751.89	27.7%	37,996	11.4%	15,692
광주	1,154,893	87.2%	1,007,298	50.5%	508,886.79	31.7%	318,910	2.5%	24,780
전북	1,515,768	87.2%	1,322,053	50.5%	667,901.10	31.7%	418,562	2.5%	32,523
전남	1,565,736	87.2%	1,365,635	50.5%	689,918.77	31.7%	432,360	2.5%	33,595
강원	1,269,208	78.8%	1,000,644	39.6%	396,454.99	26.0%	260,568	15.2%	152,098
제주	490,678	79.7%	391,070	40.9%	159,947.78	26.0%	101,835	13.5%	52,638
계	41,951,015	82.5%	34,610,807	43.7%	15,115,093	24.0%	8,309,265	14.4%	4,971,872

3.보정투표층 기준​

지역	20대총선 선거인수	보정 투표층	투표수	문재인	득표수	안철수	득표수	홍준표	득표수
서울	8,427,412	79.9%	6,730,131	46.6%	3,134,895.12	22.7%	1,525,048	12.7%	856,073
경기	9,969,097	79.3%	7,905,494	44.8%	3,540,080.18	23.4%	1,851,467	13.0%	1,027,714
인천	2,371,674	79.3%	1,880,737	44.8%	842,194.24	23.4%	440,469	13.0%	244,496
부산	2,952,212	77.6%	2,290,031	42.8%	980,133.20	19.8%	452,968	21.2%	485,487
울산	933,463	77.6%	724,087	42.8%	309,909.34	19.8%	143,224	21.2%	153,506
경남	2,711,727	77.6%	2,103,487	42.8%	900,292.28	19.8%	416,070	21.2%	445,939
대구	2,024,624	74.7%	1,511,382	29.4%	444,648.53	22.1%	333,713	27.5%	415,630
경북	2,233,612	74.7%	1,667,391	29.4%	490,546.54	22.1%	368,160	27.5%	458,533
대전	1,213,250	78.5%	952,280	43.6%	414,813.14	27.7%	263,782	11.4%	108,941
충북	1,281,557	78.5%	1,005,894	43.6%	438,167.47	27.7%	278,633	11.4%	115,074
충남	1,670,478	78.5%	1,311,158	43.6%	571,140.50	27.7%	363,191	11.4%	149,996
세종	165,626	78.5%	130,000	43.6%	56,627.93	27.7%	36,010	11.4%	14,872
광주	1,154,893	82.9%	957,406	50.5%	483,681.66	31.7%	303,115	2.5%	23,552
전북	1,515,768	82.9%	1,256,572	50.5%	634,820.01	31.7%	397,831	2.5%	30,912
전남	1,565,736	82.9%	1,297,995	50.5%	655,747.15	31.7%	410,945	2.5%	31,931
강원	1,269,208	74.8%	948,987	39.6%	375,988.58	26.0%	247,116	15.2%	144,246
제주	490,678	76.0%	373,112	40.9%	152,602.62	26.0%	97,158	13.5%	50,221
계	41,951,015	78.8%	33,046,144	43.7%	14,426,288	24.0%	7,928,899	14.4%	4,757,123

◈아무래도 지역별로는

★ 문재인 후보는 4주차에 전국 전체 1위를 했지만 홍준표 후보의 영남권 상승세가 만만치 않네요.

★ 안철수 후보는 주요 지지 지역이던 TK에서 3위로 밀려났고 호남과 큰 차이로 2위로 밀려나있는 상황입니다.

★ 홍준표 후보는 안철수 후보의 호남외 지지층을 꽤 흡수하면서 호남 제외 전국에서 두자릿수 지지율을 기록하고 있네요.

이상으로 4월 4주차 여론조사 종합의 지역별분석을 모두 마치겠습니다.

[후안무치]

잘보고갑니다 꼼꼼한 통계네요. 문재인후보자께서 저것보다 더 받았으면 좋겠어요ㅠ

[테라마이신안연고]

과반은 힘드려나요ㅠㅠ