폭격기 B-21 추가생산을 기대중인 노스롭 그루먼

[위종민]

NGAD 프로그램의 미래가 불투명해지면서 노스롭 그루먼이 B-21 레이더 폭격기의 추가생산을 기대하고 있다고, 10월 24일 노스롭 그루먼의 실적발표 자리에서 노스롭 그루먼의 CEO 캐시 워든이 밝혔습니다. 

현재 미공군은 의회가 요구한 전력구조검토를 수행중이고, 이 결과에 따라 B-21레이더의 생산 수량이 늘어날 수 있다고 합니다. B-21 레이더는 2010년 기준 대당 단가 5억 5천만 달러에 계약했고, 현재 가격은 7억 8천만 달러네요. 

미공군은 2030년대까지는 폭격기 규모를 늘릴 필요가 없고, B-21 생산이 완료될 즈음 새로운 기술이 나올 수 있기 때문에 100대 이상을 보유할 필요가 없다고 밝혔습니다만, 미군 전략사령부 사령관 앤서니.J.코튼 대장과 같이 미공군 내에서도 더 많은 B-21이 필요하다고 요구하는 움직임이 있네요. 미첼연구소의 마크 건징어 퇴역대령은 B-21을 더 많이, 더 빨리 (하지만 NGAD를 없애지 않는 한에서) 뽑아내야 한다고 주장하고 있습니다. 연구결과에 따르면 미공군은 스텔스 폭격기 200대를 포함한 300대 가량의 폭격기 전력이 필요하다고 하네요. 

NATIONALS SECURITY JOURNAL의 Brent.M.Eastwood가 쓴 글에 따르면 마크 건징어 퇴역 대령은 B-21이 225대가 필요하다고 주장했고, National Interest의 Brandon.J.Weichert는 300대가 필요하다고 주장한다고 합니다. 

Northrop: Air Force Weighs More B-21s in Force Structure Study

The B-21 Raider continues to conduct flight tests in 2024 at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif. USAF

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Northrop: USAF Weighs Buying More B-21 Bombers

Oct. 25, 2024 | By Greg Hadley

As the Air Force rethinks requirements for its Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter, it appears to be reconsidering the number of B-21 bombers it needs, as well. 

“I think that’s exactly what the Air Force is looking at,” said Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden, which makes the B-21 and is not competing for NGAD. “They are undertaking a force structure design review, and the Secretary has been open about looking at the various options they have for increasing their force size and has talked specifically about NGAD. And we know that B-21 is in the mix as well.”

Warden made her comments during an earnings call Oct. 24.

The Air Force is in the midst of a congressionally mandated force structure review and, at the same time, rushing to complete the NGAD requirements analysis ordered up after Secretary Frank Kendall paused NGAD ahead of a down-select decision on two competing designs this summer. NGAD has always been seen as an extension of the B-21 family of systems, a necessary addition to ensure the Raider gets to its target and makes it back out safely.

Air Force officials have insisted 100 Raiders is sufficient to the current need, though others have argued for building more. But Warden said Oct. 24 that the size of the B-21 fleet is one factor in part of a broader requirements review.  

Cost is a major factor. Kendall paused NGAD because of the cost of each aircraft. Having previously suggested that each sixth-generation jet could cost multiple hundreds of millions of dollars, he said in September he’d prefer to pay no more than the cost of an F-35, or $80 million to $100 million per tail. 

The difference, spread across a fleet size of 200-250 fighters, would yield tens of billions in savings. That’s where the B-21 comes into play. Asked during the Oct. 24 earnings call if NGAD savings could fund more B-21s, Warden made her comments.  

The Air Force uses 2010 as the base year for calculating B-21 costs, when the unit cost per bomber was contractually set at $550 million. That puts its cost in current dollars at about $780 million. However, Kendall told Congress in April that the B-21 was below cost projections for low-rate initial production. The cost ceiling will go up for subsequent aircraft. 

“It would be premature for me to suggest where that force structure review will end up,” Warden said of the Air Force study. “But I do think in the coming months, we may get a better indication from the Air Force as to how they’re thinking about B-21 quantities in the long run.”

In March, then-deputy chief for planning Lt. Gen. Richard G. Moore Jr. told lawmakers that a decision on a larger fleet wouldn’t be needed until the 2030s. A month later, Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin said he wasn’t looking to buy more than 100 because technological developments could produce something better by the time all those aircraft are built. 

Others have argued for more Raiders, however. Air Force Gen. Anthony J. Cotton, the head of U.S. Strategic Command, has said he would “love” to have more B-21s. 

“If you take a look at the real world operating requirements the Air Force has, [planners] fully understand that the Air Force’s combat capacity must grow,” retired Col. Mark Gunzinger of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “And if the challenge is to fight tonight, to respond over global ranges … that drives requirements for longer range capabilities, larger payloads, and capabilities that can operate in degraded, highly contested threat environments. That is a prescription for penetrating bombers. It’s a very common sense narrative for why we need to rebuild our bomber force.”

Gunzinger said the U.S. needs to scale up to deter two peer adversaries in Russia and China, and that more B-21s, procured at a faster rate, is the best way to do so. 

“The most cost-effective way of doing that is to increase the acquisition of B-21 because it’s a two-for-one deal,” Gunzinger said. “It enhances conventional defense and it enhances nuclear deterrence.”

But Gunzinger questioned the idea of shifting spending from NGAD to B-21.

“I don’t think the capabilities they’re looking for in NGAD would mean that they could trade off NGAD for B-21 or vice versa,” Gunzinger said. “The fact is, the Air Force is so small and so old, it needs both, and it needs them in quantity.”

Another analyst, Christopher Bowie, has said: “We should plan to build more than the 100 currently on the books [because] no matter how capable an aircraft, it can only be in one place at one time.” 

Citing studies from the Mitchell Institute, the MITRE Corporation, and the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Gunzinger assessed that that the Air Force needs a bomber fleet of 300 or more aircraft, with 200 or so of them being stealthy, penetrating bombers like the B-2 or B-21.

All that discussion preceded Kendall’s decision to “pause” NGAD rather than commit to one design. He now has a senior-level panel, including three former Air Force chiefs and a former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looking at options, and he has promised a decision by year’s end. If that triggers a reassessment and new competition, it could set back the NGAD program by years.

Not surprisingly, Warden said Northrop stands ready to increase B-21 production if asked. 

“In the short run, we remain very focused on delivering them optionality. The performance that we are delivering gives them a capability that is in production now that is well below the cost target for the platform,” she said. “And we believe that that’s the role of industry, to give the government options as they think about their force structure.” 

Warden said she expects the Air Force to award a second low-rate production contract before the end of the year. The service awarded the first LRIP contract after first flight of the bomber last year, though officials declined to disclose exact figures on the size of the deal and the number of aircraft covered. 

How Many B-21 Raider Bombers Does the Air Force Need? - NationalSecurityJournal

How Many B-21 Raider Bombers Does the Air Force Need?

How Many B-21 Raider Bombers Does the Air Force Need?

By

Brent M. Eastwood

Published

6 days ago

•  

The B-21 Raider program is on track and continues flight testing at Northrop Grumman’s manufacturing facility on Edwards Air Force Base, California. The B-21 will have an open architecture to integrate new technologies and respond to future threats across the spectrum of operations. The B-21 Long Range Strike Family of Systems will greatly enhance mission effectiveness and Joint interoperability in advanced threat environments, strengthening U.S. deterrence and strategic advantage. (U.S. Air Force photo)

How Many B-21 Raider Stealth Bombers Does the U.S. Air Force Need? – The U.S. Air Force needs more stealth bombers. Only 19 of the radar-evading B-2 Spirit war birds and the B-52 has served for over 70 years.

Enter the B-21 Raider bomber that will be one of the stealthiest airplanes in U.S. history. The Air Force seeks to have 100 B-21 Raiders and that appears to be a prudent number. This fleet of B-21s would serve the United States well as it switches from the Global War on Terror to potential conflicts with great powers such as China and Russia. But the United States may need more than 100.

There Is a New Threat Environment

There are so many military and nuclear targets in U.S. battle plans that at least 100 B-21s are drastically needed. There is a new Cold War brewing between Russia and China that could turn “hot” at any time. So, the more stealth bombers the Air Force has the better it will be able to protect the Homeland and take the fight to the enemy.

Would 225 B-21s Be Enough?

Some defense analysts are calling for way more than 100 B-21s. Retired Air Force B-52 pilot Colonel Mark Gunzinger believes that the Americans needs at least 225 Raiders to battle potential foes. This seems like a lot with defense budgets always under time, money, and resource constraints. But 225 B-21s would be great if the Department of Defense could make it happen, according to Gunzinger.

“More resources can buy back future risk and that’s what a more aggressive acquisition rate for the B-21 can do,” Gunzinger told journalists in the spring.

Gunzinger believes the threat environment warrants more stealth bombers. Maintaining the nuclear triad is as important as ever, and the Air Force can deliver on these needs with the 225 B-21s. Gunzinger’s report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies pointed to the threat from China.

“The Air Force’s penetrating bombers exist to provide weapons and sensor density at range that enable theater commanders to achieve a wide spectrum of effects against the most difficult target sets. More Air Force long-range, penetrating strike capacity is now required to defeat Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific and meet other force sizing requirements. To a significant extent, the need for more long-range penetrating strike capacity is driven by theater commander requirements to counter China’s operational advantages in a conflict that occurs along its periphery,” the report said.

300 B-21s? Why Not?

The National Interest’s Brandon J. Weichert has called for the Air Force to order 300 B-21s, which is likely a bridge too far considering the cost of the service’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter that has some estimating it will set the Air Force back as much as $300 million per unit.

This Thing Is Expensive and Could Be the Victim of Budget Cuts

The B-21 is also highly expensive – at an expected $700 million per airplane. It is difficult to see a scenario in which the Air Force could afford 300 of the stealth warbirds along with the NGAD.

“The Air Force has requested $2.7 billion for the program in fiscal 2025, down from $4 billion projected last year,” Defense One reported. This is not good news for the B-21 since Congress is apt to continue budget cuts on the project.

The B-21 Raider was unveiled to the public at a ceremony December 2, 2022 in
Palmdale, Calif. Designed to operate in tomorrow’s high-end threat environment, the B-21 will play a critical role in ensuring America’s enduring airpower capability. (U.S. Air Force photo)

One Senator is a Big Fan of the B-21

U.S. Senator Mike Rounds (R-ND) is the biggest champion of the B-21 on Capitol Hill. Rounds told an audience at the Hudson Institute, that “we have to assume that if we have a problem with one of those two near-peer competitors, we will also have a problem with the other at basically the same time. The B-21 fits into this because you have to have a nuclear-capable system that can enter into and hold them at risk inside their homeland. That gets their attention.”

It’s About Improving the U.S. Nuclear Triad

This need for nuclear deterrence is a huge advantage for the B-21. China and Russia do not have the air defenses to take on such a stealthy bomber. They will have to invest more money in modern surface-to-air missile systems and stealthy fighter interceptors to track and destroy B-21s. So perhaps the Raider is worth producing more than 100 units.

The B-21 Raider was unveiled to the public at a ceremony December 2, 2022 in..Palmdale, Calif. Designed to operate in tomorrow’s high-end threat environment, the B-21 will play a critical role in ensuring America’s enduring airpower capability. (U.S. Air Force photo)

The future of the B-21 program will come down to new White House leadership. Should he win, Donald Trump is likely to look for ways to save money. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has not articulated how much she would spend on defense. Still, Republicans like Senator Mike Rounds may not be enough Congressional lawmakers to convince her that the B-21 is needed so desperately to go beyond 100 units. So, 100 may be the magic number. We’ll update you on how the B-21 program progresses and what that final number will be.

About the Author

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

In this article:B-21, B-21 Raider, Bombers, Defense, featured, Military

Written ByBrent M. Eastwood

Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.

[Minowski(김유철)]

진짜 이 상황에서 B21이 속 안썩이고 나와준게 얼마나 다행인지 모르겠네요. 4세대 전투기는 가동률이 문제고, 5세대는 숫자 확보가 안되었고, 6세대는 컨셉도 못잡고 있는데 정안되면 B21로 도배해서 미슬캐리어라도 해 본다는 대안이라도 있으니 말입니다.

[위종민]

이게 다른 회사 물건들처럼 속썩였으면.. ㄷㄷㄷ