(Mar 31, 2019) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[정견만]

(Mar 31, 2019) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

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- 영국 의회가 또다시 May수상의 Brexit Plan을 거부하자 영국 기업들이 No deal Brexit 우려로 충격에 빠져들고 있습니다.

- 3월중 중국의 제조업 PMI지표가 크게 호전 되었습니다. 국내 및 해외수출 주문 증가가 주요인.

- Russia 중앙은행의 금 매입이 지속 증가하고 있습니다. 지난 10년간 Reserve 자산 중 금 보유량 4배 증가. -> Geopolitical shocks and the threat of tougher US sanction에의 대응 차원.

1. Business ‘devastated’ by Brexit vote, BBC News

- 영국 의회가 지난 금요일 Theresa May 수상의 Brexit Plan을 또다시 거부 (3번쨰)함에 따라, 영국 기업들은 ‘No-deal Brexit’ 가능성의 확대로 큰 충격에 빠짐.

May 수상이 Brexit Plan을 의회가 승인하면 수상직도 사퇴하겠다고 공언하였음에도 무려 58표차로 부결 -> EU의 최후 통첩 deadline인 4월 12일까지 정부가 새로운 Brexit plan을 마련하여 의회의 승인을-얻기가 쉽지 않은 상황.

의회는 다음주 월, 수요일 다시 voting할 기회를 갖지만, 결과는 여전히 불투명 -> 총선 및 Referendum 실시 가능성도 제기됨. .

‘영국 소매 연합’, Food and Drink 연합’ ‘우주항공 및 방위산업 대표’, ‘소기업 연합회’ 대표 등이 no-deal Brexit에 대해 우려를 표명하면서, 정치인들이 그들의 job을 하면서 기업들, 그 종업원들, 고객들, 공급업체들의 목소리를 우선 청취해야 한다고 주장.

1-2. Brexit deal rejected again: Here's what could happen now, CNBC

-  영국 의회가 Brexit Plan을 3차례 거부한 이후, 향후 전개 방향에 관하여 scenario 별로 잘 정리한 기사입니다. 원문을 읽어 보세요. 

2. China Factory Gauge Rebounds as Business Confidence Improves, Bloomberg

- 3월중 중국의 제조업 지표가 크게 호전 되었습니다.

공장 주문 증가에 힘입어 제조업부문의 PMI지수(purchasing managers index) 가 2월 49.2 -> 3월 50.5로 대폭 개선되었음(2012년이래 최대폭 상승).

한편 비제조업(서비스 및 건설업) PMI도 2월 54.3 -> 3월 54.8로 상승. 50이상은 경기확장을 의미

국내 및 해외수출 주문이 각각 6개월내 최대로 증가한 것이 주 요인(2월에 춘절이 있어서 상대적으로 고평가 된 측면도 있음).

경기 호전의 이면에는 중앙은행의 확장적 통화정책(지준율 연속 인하 등), 정부의 적기 재정지원이 있었음.

->개인적으로 중국 정부의 경제정책을 높이 평가. 한국 정부 뭐하고 있는지? 답답!

3. Russia Is Dumping U.S. Dollars to Hoard Gold, Bloomberg

- Russia 중앙은행이 Putin대통령의 요청에 의거 US $ 매각 - 금 매입을 지속하고 있습니다. 지난 10년 동안 러시아는 금 보유량을 4배 증가 시켰는데,. 특히 2018년은 가장 적극적 매입 -> 올해도 매입 추세 유지 ->지난 2월 1백만 온스의 금 매입(작년 11월이래 최대). 작년 자국내 생산량보다 더 많은 양의 금을 중앙은행이 매입(처음).

러시아의 de-dollarization 정책을 다른 나라들이 추종한다면 세계경제에 상당한 impact를 줄 소지.

Emmanuel Macron 프랑스대통령은 작년 11월 인터뷰에서 유럽 기업들 및 국가들의 달러 의존도가 너무 높다면서, 주권 문제(an issue of sovereignty)라고 지적하기도.

작년 Poland와 Hungary는 상당량의 금을 매입 -> 유럽 국가로서는 10년내 처음.

일부 분석가들은 러시아가 금 매입을 더 이상 지속하지 않을 거라고 하고, 일부는 geopolitical shocks and the threat of tougher US sanction에 대응하기 위해 더 많이 매입할 거라고 주장하네요.

작년도 러시아의 무역거래 총 $600bn의 3/4이 US $로 거래 되었는데, 러시아의 $보유 비중을 높이는 효과 -> 중앙은행이 $매각, 금 매입하는 패턴

러시아의 지속적 금 매입에 영향 받아 국제 금 시세는 2016년초이래 현재까지 20% 상승. (금요일 $1,297.15 per ounce, LME 가격)

정견만 드림

1. Business ‘devastated’ by Brexit vote, BBC News

• 29 March 2019

Business groups have said they are "devastated" after Parliament's latest rejection of the prime minister's EU withdrawal plan.

They urged MPs and the government to find a solution and stave off the "nightmare" of a no-deal Brexit.

"The UK's reputation, people's jobs and livelihoods are at stake," said CBI deputy director-general Josh Hardie.

And the Institute of Directors' Edwin Morgan said businesses were "sick" of being stuck in "spirit-sapping limbo".

Mr Morgan, the IoD's interim director-general, said: "The Brexit merry-go-round continues to spin, but the fun stopped a long time ago."

MPs are set to have another go at reaching a Brexit compromise in another series of votes on Monday and Wednesday next week.

Stephen Phipson, chief executive of manufacturers' group Make UK, said: "Business is devastated that after two years of negotiations, months of increasing uncertainty and weeks of building frustration, after three attempts the withdrawal deal has not been agreed by the House of Commons.

"This now makes the nightmare of a no-deal scenario more likely than ever."

• MPs reject May's EU withdrawal agreement
• Brexit trade deals 'are incomplete'
• Brexit: Stop chasing rainbows, say firms

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said businesses were "paying the price of the political uncertainty".

"There are still options open to MPs and they must get behind one of them," she added.

The Food and Drink Federation's chief executive, Ian Wright, said Parliament had to lead the country out of "our current shambles" by seeking a long extension to the UK's EU exit.

"Business - particularly food and drink - requires a stable operating environment and a clear path forward. On Monday, Parliament must create both," he said.

The ADS Group, which represents the aerospace and defence sectors, said that if there was not sufficient support for Theresa May's deal, the UK should "pause and reset the process".

ADS chief executive Paul Everitt said: "It is for government and Parliament to decide the way forward, but the voice of UK businesses, their employees, customers and suppliers must be given greater priority."

Small business representatives also reacted with dismay to the political deadlock over Brexit.

The national chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses, Mike Cherry, said: "Our small firms are sick and tired of politicians debating and dithering over Brexit. They are trying to get on with their jobs and it's time that politicians get on and do the same."

1-2. Brexit deal rejected again: Here's what could happen now, CNBC

• Theresa May has lost again in her bid to get her "withdrawal deal" approved by U.K. lawmakers.
• She had offered her future resignation in an apparent exchange for support of the deal.
• In a final bid to break the deadlock, the U.K. leader may now call for a general election.

David Reid | @cnbcdavy

Published 16 Hours Ago

The leader of the United Kingdom Theresa May has failed again in her bid to get her Brexit deal past Parliament, leading to fevered speculation that she must now call a general election.

May's template to leave the bloc has been rejected three times and currently there is no other deal agreed with the European Union.

The prime minister had faced an uphill task to overturn the 149-vote rejection of her EU divorce deal when it was last voted on earlier this month. May had even offered her future resignation in an apparent exchange for the support of the deal, but the victory failed to materialize and was rejected on Friday afternoon by a margin of 58 votes.

With Britain now set to leave the EU on April 12 and with no formal agreed deal in place, there could be a no-deal Brexit, yet another vote on May's agreement or even a second referendum. Some on Friday suggested that a new government would be a possible next step.

The EU has previously indicated that it would extend Britain's membership to allow any election to be held. It would also would mark the country's third general election in four years.

After the vote on Friday, the leaders of the main opposition Labour party and Scottish National Party both responded by calling for May to now hold a general election.

Why an election?

At first glance, a parliamentary attempt to wrest control of the Brexit process on Wednesday this week appeared to have only muddied the waters, throwing up eight separate rejections of Brexit possibilities by lawmakers.

However, Wednesday's most successful option, a permanent customs union with the EU, is viewed as a key reason why an election may be required. Lawmakers only narrowly defeated the customs union option and it could even command a majority support in Parliament during another vote on Monday.

Should that happen, May faces a problem. Despite it being viewed as a way forward by many in Parliament, she would struggle to support a customs union as it contradicts the current Conservative Party manifesto.

Additionally, many Conservative Brexiteers dislike a customs union as it prevents Britain from arranging its own trade deals. Should May offer her support, it would likely split her fractured party even further.

However, a fresh election at this stage could also weaken the number of opposition lawmakers in Parliament, giving the Conservative Party a stronger mandate to enact Brexit. Some commentators note that the U.K. leader may appeal to the public that by rejecting her deal with Europe, the rival Labour Party has time and again failed to honor the 2016 referendum result.

The Conservative election strategy could be boiled down to one simple appeal — back us and we'll end this Brexit mess.

Big risk to May

But an election carries risk and could create more problems for the Conservative Party than it solves.

Many U.K. lawmakers don't want to take part in European parliamentary elections on May 23 and any election would likely force this. It doesn't resolve the Conservative Party split over Brexit policy and it could be punished in the polls by voters who see May's government as responsible for failing to deliver Brexit on time.

Polls suggest any race to 10 Downing Street remains tight and the Labour Party could formulate a "softer Brexit" involving a customs union that the U.K. public may be ready to support.

Paul Dales, the chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said the U.K. leader firstly needs to ask the EU for another delay to the Brexit process.

"The EU has indicated a delay would be longer (perhaps a year?), would require the UK to take part in EU elections in May and that the UK would need to indicate 'a way forward'," he said in a research note.

"If a delay can't be agreed, then no Brexit (by revoking Article 50) or a no deal could happen. Oh and all this needs to be done within two weeks when in all honesty we don't

know if Mrs May will be the Prime Minister in two days' time! A general election is also possible."

2. China Factory Gauge Rebounds as Business Confidence Improves, Bloomberg

‎2019‎년 ‎3월‎ ‎31‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎10‎:‎22 Updated on ‎2019‎년 ‎3월‎ ‎31‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎11‎:‎12

• Manufacturing PMI exceeds all estimates as orders recover
• New export orders increase to highest level in six months

The first official gauge of China’s manufacturing sector rebounded in March, signaling a stabilization in the economy as policy stimulus takes hold.

• The manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 50.5 from 49.2 last month, the biggest jump on month since 2012. The non-manufacturing PMI -- a gauge of services and construction -- stood at 54.8 versus 54.3 in February. Readings above 50 signal expansion.

Key Insights

• Leading sub-gauges improved, with new orders and new export orders both jumping to the highest levels in six months.
• “Monetary policy measures have been effective, and the proactive fiscal policies have stabilized investment,” said Zhou Hao, an economist with Commerzbank AG in Singapore. “In the short term, the expectation for a RRR cut will likely be reduced,” he said, referring to a reduction in the amount of money banks must keep in reserve.
• Zhou cautioned that the rise in the March data may overstate the actual increase in activity, as the Lunar New Year holiday in February weighed down the February data.

Recovery Signs

• The release backs up the signs of recovery seen in the earliest data on the economy, which showed business confidence and stock markets improving amid policy support and progress in the China-U.S. trade talks.
• Premier Li Keqiang told business people last week that March economic indicators would show “signs of visible improvement,” with the economy doing better in the first quarter than the government expected.

3. Russia Is Dumping U.S. Dollars to Hoard Gold, Bloomberg

Andrey Biryukov, Rupert Rowling and Yuliya Fedorinova

March 29, 2019

Vladimir Putin’s quest to break Russia’s reliance on the U.S. dollar has set off a literal gold rush.

Within the span of a decade, the country quadrupled its bullion reserves, and 2018 marked the most ambitious year yet. And the pace is keeping up so far this year. Data from the central bank show that holdings rose by 1 million ounces in February, the most since November.

The data shows that Russia is making rapid progress in its effort to diversify away from American assets. Analysts, who have coined the term de-dollarization, speculate about the global economic impacts if more countries adopt a similar philosophy and what it could mean for the dollar’s desirability compared with other assets, such as gold or the Chinese yuan.

French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with CNN in November that European corporations and entities are too dependent on the U.S. currency, calling it "an issue of sovereignty." Last year, Poland and Hungary surprised analysts by making the first substantial gold purchases by a European Union nation in more than a decade.

For Russia, experts are starting to question whether it can afford to keep up its intense pace of buying. Some say the country will import more gold to guard against geopolitical shocks and the threat of tougher U.S. sanctions as relations between the two powers continue to deteriorate. Gold buying last year exceeded mine supply for the first time. Still, others argue that Russia’s bullion demand is set to slow.

“Should it reach the limit for domestic purchases, I think the central bank will start to import gold,” said Oleg Kouzmin, chief economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow and former adviser in the central bank’s Monetary Policy Department. Given the geopolitical risks, it’s likely the central bank will keep increasing gold’s share of reserves, he said.

A representative for Russia’s central bank declined to comment on its gold purchases.

One thing that could keep Russia’s dollar reserves at high level is the country’s dependence on exporting commodities, like oil which are denominated in the greenback. Three-quarters of the nation’s annual $600 billion of trade is in dollars.

Central bank buying has helped “strengthen gold from a weak hand to a strong hand” and supported gold prices in recent years, according to Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, managing partner at Liechtenstein-based asset manager Incrementum AG. Bullion has risen more than 20 percent since the start of 2016. It traded up 0.5 percent at $1,297.15 per ounce at 12:40 p.m. in London.

“If it wasn’t for Russia’s central bank, last year would have been the worst year for gold buying in a decade, so it helped put a floor on the price,” said Adrian Ash, head of research at gold brokerage BullionVault Ltd. “However, Russian buying is now well known so it would take a significant increase in their purchases to materially impact the gold price.”

Chinese startups are still trailing their US rivals in future tech, CNN Business

By Michelle Toh,

Updated 1432 GMT (2232 HKT) March 28, 2019

Hong Kong (CNN Business) Chinese tech companies are battling the United States for global supremacy, but they're still lagging behind where it matters most.

China is home to nearly one-third of the world's 326 unicorns, or startups worth over a billion dollars, according to a new report this week from Credit Suisse. But US companies have a major edge when it comes to cutting edge fields like artificial intelligence, software and robotics.

Only 14% of Chinese unicorns are focused on those high-tech industries, compared to 40% of their American counterparts, the report said. The United States and China together account for three out of every four unicorns globally, with 156 and 93 respectively.

China's main hurdle is its relative lack of research investments.

"China's scientific research, especially basic research, is still in a catch-up phase," said Vincent Chan, Credit Suisse's head of China equity strategy.

According to the report, Chinese spending on research and development from 2000 to 2009 only made up 1.2% of the country's GDP, far lower than the 2.2% average expenditure of OECD countries during the same period.

Though China is now working to close the gap, that early investment "provides the foundation for the emergence of unicorns," the Credit Suisse researchers added.

According to the report, Chinese spending on research and development from 2000 to 2009 only made up 1.2% of the country's GDP, far lower than the 2.2% average expenditure of OECD countries during the same period.

Though China is now working to close the gap, that early investment "provides the foundation for the emergence of unicorns," the Credit Suisse researchers added.

Xu Li, CEO of SenseTime, identified by the company's facial recognition system at a showroom in Beijing. SenseTime's image-identifying algorithms have made it the world's most valuable AI startup.

Artificial intelligence and robotics are widely seen as gateways to the future of technology — and a central part of the ongoing tussle between Washington and Beijing for global dominance.

Last week, the Trump administration underscored their importance, nominating former venture capitalist Michael Kratsios to the role of US chief technology officer.

Kratsios, who focuses on areas like 5G, AI, quantum computing and autonomous vehicles, told the Washington Examiner that his team would continue pushing those initiatives.

"Our primary goal is to ensure American leadership," he said.

But China has made rapid strides in some areas, and is already leading in the development of 5G technology.

Chinese tech giant Huawei is one of biggest holders of patents for the next-generation wireless networks, which will help power other emerging technologies like self-driving cars and smart city services. Huawei has rapidly emerged as a global 5G leader, despite a US-led campaign to ban its equipment in countries around the world.

The Chinese government has also outlined plans to become a dominant force in artificial intelligence by 2030, targeting an investment of nearly $150 billion in the industry.