전투기 레오나르도, GCAP의 초도 주문 물량을 350대로 추정

[위종민]

레오나르도가 3월 11일 발표한 문건에서 영국, 이탈리아, 일본이 추진중인 GCAP의 초도 주문 물량 추정치를 350대로 계산했네요. 

3국은 현재 4세대 및 5세대 전투기 630대를 보유중입니다. 일본은 F-2 90대, F-15J/DJ 130대(199대 중 70대는 JSI 업그레이드 예정), 이탈리아는 토네이도 39대가 교체대상일 듯 하고, 영국은 타이푼 중 몇 대나 교체할 지 모르겠네요. F-15 130대를 모두 GCAP로 교체할 지도 불확실하지만 그렇다고 가정해도 260대인데 나머지 90대는 누가 주문한다는 건지, 초도물량의 절반 이상을 주문할 것 같은 일본이 사업비 분배나 작업량 분배에 고분고분 따를 지가 관건이겠습니다. 

GCAP partner fleets in focus as Leonardo hints at initial 350-unit buy | News | Flight Global

GCAP partner fleets in focus as Leonardo hints at initial 350-unit buy

Defence

GCAP partner fleets in focus as Leonardo hints at initial 350-unit buy

By 

Craig Hoyle13 March 2025

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Leonardo has revealed a first order estimate for the three-nation Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) being advanced by joint partners Italy, Japan and the UK.

“A total of 350 platform orders for the entire joint venture are expected by 2035,” Leonardo disclosed within its broad-reaching industrial plan update on 11 March.

Source: BAE Systems

The Global Combat Air Programme will deliver a sixth-generation manned fighter for use from 2035

The mid-decade date cited by the programme’s Italian partner corresponds to the planned entry into service of a sixth-generation fighter – named Tempest by the UK – via the GCAP effort.

Leonardo has not provided further details, such as an expected split by nation. However, it is likely that the 350-aircraft figure would be built on through subsequent commitments by the partners, and via future deals with potential export customers.

Analysis of the GCAP partners’ current combat aircraft fleets shows that their air forces have a combined 630 fourth- and fifth-generation fighters in use.

Fleets data from aviation analytics company Cirium indicates that Japan has more combat aircraft than its two GCAP partners combined: 328, against Italy’s 160 and the UK’s 142.

Source: Crown Copyright

Japan’s current fighter fleet includes 90 Mitsubishi F-2s

Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) assets include 199 Boeing/Mitsubishi F-15D/Js, 39 Lockheed Martin F-35A/Bs and 90 Mitsubishi F-2s. A portion of its fleet of F-15s – with airframes aged between 25 and 44 years – will be upgraded to a ‘Japanese Super Interceptor’ standard, with the work expected to cover 70 aircraft.

The JASDF’s priority is to field a replacement for the F-2: an evolution of the Lockheed F-16. Its oldest example of the single-engined type is aged 29 years.

Current GCAP partner nation fleets
Italian air force	Active
Eurofighter	90
F-35A/B	31
Tornado	39
Total	160
Japan Air Self-Defense Force	Active
F-2	90
F-15D/J	199
F-35A/B	39
Total	328
UK Royal Air Force	Active
Eurofighter	107
F-35B	35
Total	142
Combined total	630
Source: Cirium

The Italian air force flies 90 Eurofighters, 31 F-35A/Bs and 39 Panavia Tornados, with the last of these types nearing the end of its operational life. Rome also plans to replace its oldest, Tranche 1-standard Eurofighters with up to 24 new-build examples, under a procurement plan announced last December.

The UK Royal Air Force, meanwhile, currently operates 107 Eurofighter Typhoons and 35 F-35Bs. Its future combat air mix will be among key considerations during an ongoing Strategic Defence Review, especially around further purchases of the F-35.

Source: Crown Copyright

The UK’s Strategic Defence Review will consider factors including a potential further buy of the F-35B

Leonardo notes that the GCAP partner nations have to date pledged a combined €40 billion ($43.7 billion) to the effort, to cover the period to 2035. A decision on continued development and production of the future fighter should be made late this year.

BAE Systems of the UK, Leonardo, and the Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Company will each hold a 33.3% stake in an industrial joint venture to be formally established in mid-2025.

Future assembly work will be conducted at Warton in the UK, Turin in Italy and Nagoya in Japan.

[마로]

항자대 F-35 도입댓수 147기 중 F-4EJ 대체 분량은 미사와 기지분 42기 뿐이고, 나머지 100여기는 전부 pre-MSIP 대체분량 + 공모 운용분입니다. 본래 J-MSIP 기체 100여기를 전부~90여기를 JSI 사양으로 개량해서 전술기 총 280여기 가량, 13개 비행대대 (F-35 7개 대대, F-2 3개 대대, F-15 3개 대대로 F-35 운용 대대 한 개분 순증) 운용하는게 목표였는데, 아시다시피 JSI 개량 댓수가 엄청나게 깍여서...

하여 현재 일본정부에서 공언한 F-X/GCAP 도입 분량인 F-2 90기 대체 분량 이외에 중기적으로 확정이리고 봐도 되는 분량은 JSI 개량에수 제외된 J-MSIP 기체 30기 뿐입니다. 총 120여기죠. 하여 항자대 초도물량 예상도, 전체 대체소요도 260기에는 훨씬 못미칩니다.

[위종민]

초도주문 360대는 추정이 아니라 희망일 수도 있겠네요