퀴즈. 이 평가는 몇년도에 작성된 보고서의 내용일까요?

[엽군]

The sea-based version of the R-27 is reportedly either a submarine or ship-mounted system with
an estimated range of at least 2,500 km. Russian versions of the R-27 reportedly had both a single
nuclear reentry vehicle as well as a version with three reentry vehicles, each with a 200 kiloton
(KT) nuclear weapon. It is not known if North Korea possesses reentry vehicles for their versions
of the R-27. In any such case, they have not been tested by North Korea There are indications that
North Korea may be actively pursuing a sea-based ballistic missile capability, which also could
have potential security implications for the United States.
In September 1993, the Korean People’s Navy (KPN) reportedly purchased 12 decommissioned
Russian Foxtrot class and Golf-II class submarines for scrap metal from a Japanese company. The
Golf-IIs, which are capable of carrying three SS-N-5 SLBMs, did not have their missiles or
electronic firing systems when they were sold to the North Koreans, but they did allegedly retain
significant missile launch sub-systems including launch tubes and stabilization systems. Some
analysts believe that this technology, in conjunction with the R-27’s well-understood design,
gives North Korea the capability to develop either a submarine or ship-mounted ballistic missile.
Many experts postulate that North Korea does not have the capability to develop a new SLBM on
its own and that none of North Korea’s other ballistic missiles are easily convertible to SLBMs.
North Korea apparently integrated the Golf-IIs missile stabilization and launch technology into a
new class of conventionally powered ballistic missile submarines, possibly modified versions of
Golf-IIs or Romeo class Russian submarines.39 It is also possible, according to some observers,
that North Korea might attempt to incorporate this launch technology into a merchant ship. It is
not known if North Korea has sold or will sell this new system to other countries. Some analysts
suggest that Iran might be an ideal candidate for such a system, as it has allegedly researched a
sea-based ballistic missile capability in the past.
37

이 평가는 몇년도에 작성된 보고서의 내용일까요?

[강준구]

우리가 키예프급 항모 두척을 고철로 들여왔던 시기에 북한은 잠수함 십수척을 고철로 들여갔군요. 그것도 일본 회사를 통해서...

[엽군]

90년대 국내 보도도 있었습니다.

[강준구]

아하. 그랬군요. 당시 일본 쪽에서는 북한이 이들 잠수함을 바탕으로 SSB와 SLBM을 개발할 것이라 예상하지 못했던 것일까요?

[엽군]

한국 사람들이 정서적으로 북한을 깔보는 경향성이 군사력 평가에서도 들어나는 대목이죠. 동일한 보도를 두고, 미국 쪽에서는 fact만 놓고 분석했고. 우린 의지를 투영한 결과에요. 그런 일은 지금도 벌어지고 있습니다.

[백선호]

"North Korea might attempt to incorporate this launch technology into a merchant ship" ---> 1960년대 NATO의 MLF 구상이랑 같네요.