24.7.4 Probability that up to 14 billion barrels of crude oil

[김상태]

Vitor Abreu, owner of the U.S.-based geoscience research company Act-Geo, speaks during a press conference in Sejong, Friday.

By Baek Byung-yeul

There is a high probability that up to an equivalent of 14 billion barrels of crude oil and natural gas is present in a deposit off the coast of the southeastern city of Pohang, according to Vitor Abreu, owner of the U.S.-based geoscience research company Act-Geo, Friday.

He said the exploration success rate is about 20 percent, which is higher compared to that of the Guyana oil field in South America, responding to doubts about the feasibility of the oil reserve that arose after President Yoon Suk Yeol announced it on June 3.

"To summarize, the Ulleung Basin (an oceanic basin in the East Sea near Ulleung Island) is highly prospective. It has the presence of all the key main elements," Abreu, owner and an advisor of Act-Geo, said in a press conference in Sejong.

The Korea National Oil Corp. (KNOC) established a mid-to-long-term exploration plan for the domestic continental shelf in October 2022 as part of its oil exploration in the East Sea. After assessing the possibility of the presence of oil in the deep-sea areas in the East Sea, KNOC received eval‎uations of the presence possibility in seven large promising structures through Act-Geo.

Based on that possibility, Yoon announced that there is a high probability of up to 14 billion barrels of oil and gas buried in Yeongil Bay, off the coast of Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province. This led to Abreu visiting Korea to further explain this.

The development of oil and gas fields consists of geophysical surveys, exploration drilling and commercial development. Yoon said that the government would start exploratory drilling by the end of this year, and the results of the exploration are expected in the first half of next year.

The Act-Geo owner said that the potential oil and gas fields in Korea have similar structures, types and related factors to those of the oil fields in Guyana, South America, adding that Korea's exploration success rate is higher than that of Guyana's.

"In the prospective rate to drill, 20 percent is very good. Just for comparison, the largest discovery in the world in the last 20 years or 25 years, is the Liza prospect in Guyana. I participated in that as well when I was working for Exxon Mobil, and the Liza was 16 percent," he said.

"시추의 성공률에서 20%는 매우 좋은 경우이다. 비교를 위해서 과거 20년 또는 25년동안 세계에서 가장 커다란 발견은 가이아나의 리자유전이다. 나역시 엑슨모빌에서 일할때 이 유전시추에 참여했는데 리자의 경우는 16%였다"고 그는 말했다

The oil exploration expert added that in order to forecast whether oil is actually there, four criteria need to be met: source rock, reservoir rock, cap rock and trap. And confirmed that such factors are present in the depths of the East Sea.

Lee Hyun-suk, a researcher at the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, speaks during a press conference in Sejong, Friday. Yonhap

Lee Hyun-suk, a researcher at the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, speaks during a press conference in Sejong, Friday. Yonhap

Lee Hyun-suk, a researcher at the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, who also joined the conference, said that the government confirmed the reliability of the estimation after reviewing scientific evidence.

"The Ulleung Basin in the East Sea was in a state where uncertainties were resolved through the analysis of drilling wells due to various geological factors," the researcher said. "After reviewing the scientific evidence, the reliability was confirmed."

"동해의 울릉분지는 여러가지 지질학적 요인에 따라 시추정분석을 통해 불확실성이 해결된 상태였다" 고 연구원은 말했다. "과학적 증거를 검토한 후에 신뢰성이 확인되었다"

Despite the expert's clarification, the controversy over whether there are oil and gas fields in the East Sea continues.

According to Woodside Energy, an Australian resource development company, their semi-annual report on the region released in August 2023, said that the oil and gas fields are unlikely to succeed, adding that the deep-sea exploration project in Yeongil Bay was "no longer considered prospective.”

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said that this does not match the facts.

"KNOC and Woodside Energy have been conducting geophysical explorations together since 2007. However, Woodside Energy is judged to have withdrawn without reaching the promising structure stage, which is a preliminary step before pushing ahead with drilling, through more precise and in-depth data interpretation," the ministry said in a statement.

"Therefore, the interpretation that Woodside Energy concluded there was no potential through a deep assessment of the promising structure and withdrew, is judged not to match the facts considering the circumstances at the time," the ministry added.

"따라서 우드사이드 에너지가 유망구조에 대한 심층평가를 통해 가능성이 없다고 결론을 내리고 철수했다는 해석은 당시의 상황을 고려할때 사실과 일치하지 않는것으로 판단된다"고 산업자원부는 덧붙였다

Joke-Predictive Text Can Be Dangerous  문자로 예단하는것은 위험할수 있다

The First Text Message: 'Dear John, this is Alan next door. I am sorry buddy, but I have a confession to make to you. I've been riddled with guilt these past few months and have been trying to pluck up the courage to tell you to your face, but I am at least now telling you in text as I can’t live with myself a moment longer without you knowing. The truth is, I have been sharing your wife, day and night when you're not around. In fact, probably more than you.

첫번째 문자: 존에게, 옆집 알란이야. 미안하네 친구, 하지만 자네에게 고백할게 있네. 나는 자네에게 죄를 지어  지난 몇달동안 자네 면전에서  말할려고  고민해 왔었지만 이제 문자로라도 말하려고 하네. 자네가 모른채 한순간도 더 살아갈수가 없어서 말이야. 사실은 자네가 없을때 낮이고 밤이고  자네 와이프와 함께 지내 왔다네. 실은 아마도 자네보다 더 많이 말이야.  

I haven’t been getting it at home recently, but that's no excuse I know. The temptation was just too much. I can no longer live with the guilt and I hope you will accept my sincerest apologies and forgive me. I promise that it won't happen again. Please come up with a fee for usage, and I'll pay you.

Regards, Alan.'

나는 요즘 집에 들어가지 못했지만, 그것이 변명이 될수는 없다는걸 나도 아네. 유혹이 너무나 많았었네. 더 이상죄를 짓고 살수는 없으니 나의 진정한 사죄를 받아주고 용서하기 바라네. 다시는 그런일 없을거야. 사용한것에 대한 요금은 지불하겠네.

알란으로 부터

The Response: John, feeling insulted and betrayed, grabbed his gun, stomped next door and shot his neighbor dead. He returned home, poured himself a stiff drink and went out into the garden for some fresh air. He took out his phone where he saw he had a subsequent message from his neighbor.

그후 벌어진 일: 존은 모욕과 배신감을 느낀 나머지 총을 들고 옆집으로 걸어가 이웃을 쏴 죽였다. 그는 집에 돌아와 독한 술을 털어넣고 찬바람을 쐬러 마당으로 나왔다. 전화기를 꺼내 이웃이 보낸 추가 문자를 보았다.

The Second Text Message: 'Hi John, This is Alan next door again. Sorry about the slight typo on my last text. I expect you worked it out anyway, but as I’m sure you noticed that my smart phone’s Autocorrect feature changed “Wi-Fi” to ˜Wife”. Technology hey?? Hope you saw the funny side of that. Regards, Alan.'

두번째 문자: 여보게 존, 알란이 또 보내네. 내가 먼저 보낸 문자에 조그만 오타가 있어서 미안하네. 아무튼 자네가 제대로 읽었겠지만 자네가 나의 스마트폰에 있는 자동보정 기능이  “Wi-Fi” 를 ˜Wife” 로 바꾸어 버렸다는걸 자네가 알아챘으리라 믿네. 기술이라고? 기술이 그런 재미난 면도 있다는걸 자네도 알기 바라네. 알란으로 부터