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ESPN 의 브라켓톨로지는 거의 정확하긴 하지만
최근 몇년동안 커미티의 정치적인 판단 - 군소 컨퍼런스에 대한 배려에 의한 메이저 컨퍼런스 버블팀들의 탈락 - 까진 고려하지 못하는 모습이었습니다.
근데 이건 어쩔 수 없는 부분인 것 같구요..
올시즌은 미드메이저 컨퍼런스에서 확고한 원탑 위치타 스테잇을 제외하면 논란의 여지 없이 토니에 올라갈 팀이 별로 없어 보이네요.
예전보다 못한 전통의 16강 단골 손님 곤자가,
마찬가지로 전통의 강호지만 프레뎃 이후 영 힘을 못쓰고 있는 브리검 영,
거기에 역시 은근히 강팀이지만 아무도 모르고 있는 서던 미시시피 정도가 올라가지 않을까 싶습니다.
올시즌은 그동안 항상 최고의 농구 컨퍼런스였던 Big East 가
가톨릭계 학교들이 모인 Big East 와 나머지 팀들이 C-USA 와 합쳐서 만든 AAC 로 나뉘면서
빅텐, ACC, Big 12 등의 컨퍼런스와 자웅을 겨루는 군웅할거의 양상을 띠고 있는데요,
전 올시즌 최고의 농구 컨퍼런스는 단연코 Big 12 라고 보고,
그 밑에 빅텐과 ACC, AAC 가 위치하고 있다고 생각합니다.
올시즌 빅12의 위엄은 상당한 수준인데요,,
예상치 못했던 캔자스 스테잇과 텍사스까지 빵 터지면서 컨퍼런스 자체의 경쟁력이 굉장히 올라간 인상을 받습니다.
비록 마커스 스마트와 함께 비틀거리는 오클라호마 스테잇이 아쉽긴 하지만
위긴스가 드디어 포텐셜을 뿜어내기 시작하는 (그렇게 늦은 성장 속도도 아니라고 봐요. 괜히 깎아내리고 싶어하는 사람들의 조급함이 있을뿐..) 캔자스,
호이버그 감독의 무차별 폭격쇼로 재미있는 농구를 구사하는 아이오와 스테잇,
그리고 또 하나의 깜짝 신데렐라 오클라호마까지.. 재미있는 농구를 하는 것 같습니다.
시라큐스와 피츠버그를 받아서 전력을 강화한 ACC 도 나빠 보이지 않네요.
인사이드쪽을 확실히 보강하고 씨제이 페어가 스텝업한 오렌지가 어디까지 올라갈지 상당히 궁금한데요.
이 팀은 좋은 포인트가드와 확실한 해결사 역할을 해주는 포워드가 있을때 좋은 토니 런을 보여줬다는 점에서 흥미롭습니다.
자바리 파커의 듀크와 토니 베넷이 드디어 리빌딩을 완성한듯한 버지니아, 컨퍼런스 토니만 되면 갑자기 잘하는 버릇을 못고치는 플로리다 스테잇까지.. 여기도 재미있는 팀들이 많네요.
최근 몇년동안 빅이스트를 위협해온 빅텐은 올시즌도 역시 강력한 평균 전력을 뽐내고 있지만,
맥게리 부상 이후 확실히 한계를 느끼는 듯한 미시건과 초반의 돌풍을 이어가지 못하고 있는 아이오와, 위스컨신은
토니에서 올라갈 지점이 명확해 보입니다.
결국 이 컨퍼런스는 미시건 스테잇이 얼마나 컨디셔닝을 잘 하느냐가 관건이 아닐까 생각합니다.
위치타 스테잇과 함께 랭킹 1위를 다투고 있는 플로리다가 속한 SEC 에서는 캔터키가 아닌 아칸사와 미주리를 더 주목해야 한다고 생각합니다.
특히 아칸사는 홈에서 극강인 팀인데, 한번 분위기를 타면 토니에서도 사고를 크게 칠 것 같아 보이기도 하네요.
전 플로리다가 올시즌 우승 적기라고 봅니다.
인사이드진이 흔들리지 않고 임기응변책으로 마련했는데 어느새 전통이 되어버린 포가드 시스템도 위력을 더하고 있기때문에
올시즌 deep run 이 가능하지 않을까 싶어요.
팩12는 뭐.. 길게 말하지 않으렵니다.
공략을 집중적으로 당하고 있는 애리조나는 FF정도가 맥시멈 기대치이지 않나 싶고,
UCLA 는 올해보다는 내년이 더 기대되는 팀인 것 같아요.
콜로라도는 스펜서 딘위디의 ACL 부상이후 5할이 안되는 승률을 기록하고 있고,
올시즌 크게 일 한번 칠줄 알았던 애리조나 스테잇과 오레건도 졸업한 선수들의 공백을 제대로 매우지 못하는 느낌입니다.
지난 두시즌보다는 확실히 나아졌지만, 아직도 다른 메이저 컨퍼런스 수준으로 회복했다고는 말하지 못할 것 같아요.
이 컨퍼런스는 워싱턴이 살아나줘야 합니다..
빅이스트에서는 빌라노바의 꾸준한 강력함이 가장 인상적이구요,
재비어도 눈여겨 봐야 한다고 봅니다.
조지타운이 의외로 부진해서 지난 몇년동안 이어져 왔던 1라운드 업셋 탈락의 전통도 이어가지 못할 것 같네요.
사실 크레이튼이 어디까지 올라갈지가 궁금한데요..
확실한 더 맨을 가지고 몇년동안 팀웤을 다져온 팀이라.. 토너먼트에서 더 힘을 발휘할 것 같습니다.
농구 덕후 컨퍼런스인 A-10 은 VCU 와 UMass, 세인트루이스 정도가 locked 되어 있는 상태이고
여기에 세인트 조셉과 데이튼이 버블 라인에 걸려 있는 것처럼 보입니다.
다른 시즌에 비해 약간 부진한 듯 보입니다.
사실 제가 가장 관심을 가지고 있는 컨퍼런스는 AAC인데..
풋볼 학교들에게 팽당하고 가톨릭 학교들에게 컨퍼런스 네임 뺏기고 이래저래 눈물과 함께 창단한 컨퍼런스죠.
이제 루이빌과 럿거스까지 뺏기면 정말 아무것도 없는거 아니냐는 걱정도 많았는데..
신시내티가 꽤 좋은 모습을 보여주고 있고 네이피어의 마지막 시즌을 함께 하는 유콘,
그리고 브라켓에서 업셋의 희생양으로 가장 쉽게 지목되는 멤피스,
래리 브라운의 SMU 까지 고루 좋은 모습을 보여주고 있습니다.
아무래도 다른 컨퍼런스보다 약간 떨어지는 감은 있지만,
두어팀 정도는 SS 까지 가지 않을까 합니다.
자세한 내용은 ESPN 의 버블 워치를 참고하시죠!
Atlantic 10 Conference | |
Teams that should be in: George Washington Work left to do: Saint Joseph's, Dayton
George Washington [22-7 (10-5), RPI: 24, SOS: 82] The Colonials held off Saint Joseph's Wednesday night, 76-71, staying in strong position relative to the rest of the A-10 bubble and, for that matter, almost everyone else still on this page. But we'll hold off on a lock until Mike Lonergan's team handles business in its final regular-season game at RPI-land mine Fordham (221) on Saturday afternoon. Saint Joseph's [21-8 (11-4), RPI: 36, SOS: 65] Saint Joseph's coach Phil Martelli was so displeased with the officiating in his team's loss at George Washington on Wednesday, he went so far as to call out the offending official by name. "We are the third-fewest fouling team in America and they shot 24 foul shots in the second half," Martelli told reporters. "He will want his name in the paper. His name is Jamie Luckie. He was the referee. Shame on us, we fouled. We gave up 24 foul shots in the second half and I am not sure why we would change in our 29th game, but we did." Needless to say, Martelli realized the importance of that game against George Washington. It wasn't a bid-breaker, but it would have moved Saint Joe's to a much safer place. As is, the Hawks have to take care of La Salle at home this weekend and avoid anything disastrous in the early A-10 tourney goings. Dayton [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 45, SOS: 43] Road games against top teams are the biggest low-risk, high-reward proposition in bubbledom: You don't lose much for losing at, say, Saint Louis, but boy does it help if you can win. Dayton did exactly that on Wednesday night, upending the unusually porous 17th-ranked Billikens 72-67, and the Flyers' bubble stock rose from next-four-outish all the way up to the cut or better. Just a huge win. And if the committee looks closer -- and it should now -- they'll see that a number of Dayton's losses came during a January injury swoon, and see that the Flyers have been much better otherwise. Meanwhile, winning Saturday's home game against Richmond remains a must. | Locks |
Atlantic Coast Conference | |
Work left to do: Pittsburgh, Florida State
Pittsburgh [22-8 (10-7), RPI: 49, SOS: 92] It's one thing to lose close games to good teams. You can lose to Virginia on a last-second shot, or Syracuse on a 35-foot buzzer beater, and discerning basketball minds can still recognize your team's inherent quality. But when you fail to win any of the big close opportunities you have, <i>and</i> you have a bad nonconference schedule, <i>and</i> you start mixing in bad home losses to bubble teams, well, why would anyone stand a chance to defend Pitt's tournament honor? We're now at the point where Pittsburgh, a putative ACC title contender in the first half of the season, is at serious risk of missing the NCAA tournament. The Panthers were a No. 10 seed in Joe Lunardi's Thursday bracket projections, which is dangerously close to last-four-byes territory. A loss at Clemson on Saturday would be cause for alarm. An early loss in next week's ACC tournament could put them at genuine risk of missing the tournament. If that happens, Pitt will have no one to blame but itself. Florida State [18-11 (9-8), RPI: 59, SOS: 61] In their final regular-season game, the Seminoles have a chance most bubble teams would kill for: a home date against Syracuse. Any home game against a marquee foe like the Orange is a plus, of course. But FSU's timing couldn't be better: Syracuse will carry with it the resume and RPI it earned all season, but no one would confuse this Jerami Grant-less edition of the Orange -- which has lost four of its past five, including home games to Boston College and Georgia Tech -- with the charmed group that began the season 25-0. Must-win for the Noles. | Locks |
Big 12 Conference | |
Teams that should be in: Oklahoma State, Baylor
Oklahoma State [20-10 (8-9), RPI: 38, SOS: 42] The Cowboys' "get Marcus Smart suspended to save our season!" strategy is working perfectly. Since returning from the three-game suspension he served for shoving Texas Tech fan Jeff Orr -- all three of which games Oklahoma State lost -- the star point guard has played some of his best basketball of the season. On Monday night, Oklahoma State handled Kansas State just two days after Smart's late surge helped the Cowboys upend RPI No. 2 Kansas. All of a sudden, OSU's resume looks a lot more like the one we expected it to have this season, and the Cowboys have steadily risen up the bracket projection boards since. A win at Iowa State this weekend would make them a lock, but there's little downside to a loss. Is Jeff Orr a coach of the year candidate yet? Baylor [20-10 (8-9), RPI: 43, SOS: 9] The Bears' move to should-be-in territory comes on the heels of Tuesday's home win over Iowa State, and looking at Baylor's profile now -- with its seven top-50 wins (including three on neutral courts) and top-10 strength of schedule -- it's hard to imagine the Bears were on the wrong side of the bubble just a few weeks ago. | Locks |
Big East Conference | |
Teams that should be in: Xavier Work left to do: Providence, Georgetown, St. John's
Xavier [20-11 (10-8), RPI: 46, SOS: 30] Now that the Musketeers have finished their regular-season output -- Thursday night's home loss to Villanova was their final game before next week's Big East tournament -- where do they stand? They have two truly notable wins: a Dec. 14 neutral-court victory over Cincinnati and Saturday's home victory over Creighton. They were also swept by Seton Hall. They have a decent string of top-100 wins, and a split with Tennessee, and they played only five sub-150 RPI teams. Unfortunately, they lost to one of them (USC). They're 4-8 on the road. They're still in better shape than the rest of the Big East, but "better shape than Providence" hardly equals "tournament lock." Providence [20-10 (10-7), RPI: 52, SOS: 85] So here's a crazy stat: On Tuesday night, Providence senior Bryce Cotton played all 50 minutes of the Friars' 81-80 double-OT win over Marquette. (Cotton made the winning free throws in the second overtime.) That number brought his minutes tally up to 40.2 per game. According to ESPN Stats and Info, the last player to average more than 40 minutes/game for a season with at least 22 games played was Vonteego Cummings for Pitt in '97-98 (40.1). Cotton's bonkers reliability -- he's literally averaging overtime minutes! -- has powered Providence all season. Will it be enough to get the Friars into the Dance? Providence is hovering around the cut line, and the Marquette win kept it from falling off the pace. Now, the Friars have a huge chance to spoil Creighton's senior night on Saturday. As daunting as that sounds, at least Friars fans know they have a robot on their side. Georgetown [17-12 (8-9), RPI: 57, SOS: 14] The Watch is a big believer in using one's eyes to watch basketball but not at all a big believer in the "eye test" as a selection committee criteria. Too fuzzy. Too subjective. Too reliant on the false premise that NCAA tournament selection committee members could possibly watch enough basketball -- let alone process it -- to reach definitive conclusions on teams. And yet, the eye test lives on. Maybe it will benefit Georgetown? On Tuesday night, the Hoyas played perhaps their best game of the season in a 75-63 win over Creighton. The Watch made its two-Metro-stop ride to the Verizon Center, and the Hoyas looked better than they have all season -- confident, cohesive, sharp. They may need the committee to recognize them as such. St. John's [19-11 (9-8), RPI: 62, SOS: 50] Bubble-wise, the Red Storm have the worst final week setup of the regular-season. After Sunday's win over DePaul, Saturday's trip to Marquette is all Steve Lavin's team has left ahead of the Big East tournament next week. There's no Villanova or Creighton, only a chance to lose to a hard-charging Golden Eagles team in their brutal (read: difficult) home gym. | Locks |
Big Ten Conference | |
Work left to do: Nebraska, Minnesota
Nebraska [18-11 (10-7), RPI: 41, SOS: 45] Sunday is officially one of the biggest days in the history of Nebraska basketball. That's when Wisconsin, a potential No. 1 seed, travels to Lincoln, Neb., to face a Cornhuskers team on the cusp of their first NCAA tournament bid since 1998. It's not a do-or-die situation; a loss to Wisconsin doesn't knock you off the bubble, and there is still hope in the Big Ten tournament. But a win would be huge. Whatever happens, the fact that we're even writing phrases like "their first NCAA tournament bid since ..." about Nebraska basketball is a testament to just how quickly, and how well, second-year coach Tim Miles has done his job. Minnesota [18-12 (7-10), RPI: 50, SOS: 3] Minnesota has hovered around the cut line for as long as we've been tracking the bubble in earnest this season, and nothing has changed in the final week of the season. The Gophers' loss at Michigan on Saturday moved them to 7-10 in the Big Ten, and worse yet, it was their last real opportunity to add a marquee road victory to a ledger that's best road wins are at Richmond, Penn State and Northwestern. Minnesota will have to handle Penn State at home on Sunday, do a bit of work in the conference tournament, and hope that (A) other bubble teams lose and/or (B) the selection committee really loves its top-five overall strength of schedule. It's going to be close. | Locks |
Pac-12 Conference | |
Teams that should be in: Colorado, Arizona State Work left to do: Oregon, Stanford, California
Colorado [21-9 (10-7), RPI: 25, SOS: 13] Huge win at Stanford on Wednesday night. We've talked a lot about the committee's task in evaluating the Buffs without Spencer Dinwiddie, whose season ended thanks to an ACL tear at Washington on Jan. 12. If Colorado had lost to Stanford on Wednesday, it would have been their third loss in three games and put them at 6-8 without Dinwiddie (counting that Washington game). Just one of those six wins (vs. Arizona State) would have come over a tournament team. Marks like that are how post-injury teams have their early-season successes wiped off the board. It's not a good place to be. The win at Stanford put a halt to that narrative, and Colorado looks much safer for it. Arizona State [21-9 (10-7), RPI: 39, SOS: 48] As we wrote Tuesday, Arizona State will be OK. Tuesday night's loss at Oregon doesn't change that. So why aren't we ready to lock in the Sun Devils? Because the committee values who, and how, you play on the road. Herb Sendek's team owns an ugly nonconference strength of schedule figure and its only top-100 RPI road win came at Cal. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have to avoid anything ugly at Oregon State on Saturday. ASU is in solid standing here, but it's not a lock just yet. Oregon [21-8 (9-8), RPI: 32, SOS: 44] After a 3-8 start to conference play, Oregon's resume read like that of an NIT team. Now, after six straight wins -- including a road win at UCLA (without Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams, but still) and Tuesday's home victory over Arizona State -- the Ducks suddenly have the requisite bubble chops you'd expect from a team that played a good nonconference schedule and went 12-0 doing so. Dana Altman's team isn't out of the woods yet, of course. But with just one game left to play, against new No. 1 RPI Arizona at home on Saturday, the prospectus is all upside. Finally. Stanford [18-11 (9-8), RPI: 48, SOS: 16] There's no shame in losing to Colorado, Arizona or Arizona State, but stacking all three in a late-February/early-March stretch is not exactly the ideal trajectory for a team hovering around a No. 10 seed at this point. A fourth straight at home to Utah this weekend would make things more interesting than they should be, given Stanford's workmanlike effort throughout most of the season. California [18-12 (9-8), RPI: 54, SOS: 40] Oregon's six-game winning streak has moved the Ducks into the tournament if it was seeded today, according to Joe Lunardi's Thursday bracket. Cal, meanwhile, is the first team out of the field. To avoid that ignominious end, the Bears would do well to handle Colorado on Saturday, and parlay that with a couple of wins in the Pac-12 tournament. | Locks |
Southeastern Conference | |
Work left to do: Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri
Arkansas [21-9 (10-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 79] The Razorbacks followed up last week's road win at Kentucky with back-to-back home wins over Georgia and Ole Miss (the latter a 110-80 romp), which basically means they just didn't give any of their hard-earned Rupp Arena gains back. Because Arkansas started further down the totem pole before the win at UK, it is still not a safe bet to make the tournament, especially if it were to lose at Alabama this weekend. Tennessee [19-11 (10-7), RPI: 51, SOS: 15] Saturday's visit from Missouri isn't exactly a one-for-one bracket showdown, because right now the Volunteers are in a slightly better bubble position. Emphasis on "slightly." Tennessee still has much to lose Saturday. You can't give up a home game at this point in the season to another bubble team. It's too easy a nit for the committee to pick. The SEC tournament may end up mattering much more anyway, but a loss on Saturday could be crushing. Missouri [21-9 (9-8), RPI: 55, SOS: 93] So maybe a win at Tennessee doesn't do all that much for the Tigers, but what about a loss? Would that move the needle? Would it disqualify Missouri altogether? Would it make the SEC tournament do-or-die? It's all unclear. What is clear is that Missouri needs some serious help to lift itself back up onto the right side of the bubble, and merely not losing on the road against a fellow bubble team would certainly qualify. | Locks |
Other at-large contenders | |
Teams that should be in: Gonzaga Work left to do: Brigham Young, Southern Miss, Green Bay, Louisiana Tech Gonzaga [25-6 (15-3), RPI: 26, SOS: 99] We were planning on locking up Gonzaga after the Bulldogs' destruction of Saint Mary's in the regular-season finale last week. But we're deterred just enough by their lack of quality wins -- BYU at home and Arkansas on a neutral floor are the top two victories on offer here -- so we'll hold off until Mark Few's team inevitably destroys No. 9 seed Santa Clara in the WCC tournament quarterfinals on Saturday. Brigham Young [21-10 (13-5), RPI: 31, SOS: 23] BYU has a better collection of overall wins than does Gonzaga -- the Cougars won at Stanford and beat Texas on a neutral floor in November -- but the Cougars' string of sub-150 losses has kept them firmly affixed to the bubble. They need to make a run to the WCC conference tournament final. That will likely guarantee another game against Gonzaga, but first and foremost will keep another bad loss off the Cougars' resume in the meantime. Southern Miss [26-5 (13-3), RPI: 35, SOS: 161] Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech are Conference USA's only hopes of at-large tournament bids, and those hopes are exceedingly slim. The merits of the Golden Eagles' profile may be limited to their top-40 RPI, but let's give credit where it's due: They've had to avoid bad losses left and right just to stay in the conversation, and they've done so in advance of the C-USA tournament next week. Green Bay [24-5 (14-2), RPI: 53, SOS: 169] The Phoenix might have an outside shot at an at-large berth were it not for the Horizon League's uncharacteristic struggles. Because of the down Horizon, 19 of Green Bay's 26 games have come against opponents ranked outside the RPI top 150. Most mid-majors don't have a win as good as Green Bay's Dec. 7 home victory over Virginia, or a secondary consideration as worthwhile as a three-point loss at Wisconsin. Sadly, this weekend's Horizon League tournament is still probably the only path forward. Louisiana Tech [25-6 (13-3), RPI: 66, SOS: 240] Southern Miss has the shiny RPI figure; Louisiana Tech has their 102-98 win at Oklahoma. That's a huge marker -- plenty of bubble teams with much deeper resumes don't have a road win nearly as good -- and it makes Louisiana Tech worth keeping in mind as we cast about for any and all mid-major at-large candidates. But the Bulldogs' odds remain long. | Locks |
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첫댓글 저도 우승팀 베팅하라고 하면 플로리다요 ㅎㅎ 콜로라도는 정말 스펜서 부상이 아쉽더라고요. 개인적으로 카일 앤더슨 느낌나는 선수던데
개인적으로 조지워싱턴을 좀 기대하고 있습니다. 패트리시오 가리노. 생각보다 더 좋은 선수 같아보입니다.. 조지워싱턴이 1-3-1 존 디펜스를 자주 사용하는데, 가리노가 가장 탑에 서는데 정말 위력적이더라구요(수비에서 살짝 카와이 레너드같은 느낌도 ㅎㅎ) 실제 기사에도 이런 내용이 나온 적이 있죠.
http://rvanews.com/features/expect-aint-first-youre-still-last
Defense is still George Washington’s calling card. Their 1-3-1 zone with Patricio Garino at the top made VCU look lost on offense, and it clearly frustrated the Rams who couldn’t get their weave plays or ball screen offense rolling in the gam