World Today • Wednesday 19 October 2016)
Despite failures, N Korean missile could be ready for use next year: Expert
Pyongyang was not simply repeating old failures, he says, as UN condemns latest test
WASHINGTON — In spite of the apparent failure of another North Korean missile test over the weekend, the country’s aggressive testing schedule could see its Musudan intermediate ballistic missile entering operational service sometime next year — much sooner than expected, said a leading American expert, as the United Nations Security Council condemned the failed launch.
Dr John Schilling, an aerospace engineer specialising in rocket propulsion, said it was noteworthy that North Korea had launched the missile from its west coast, rather than from a purpose-built test facility.
“Moving to a roadside near Kusong is like taking the training wheels off the bicycle, seeing if you really have mastered something new,” he wrote on the 38 North website that monitors North Korea.
He said the move showed that despite only one successful launch to show for seven attempts this year, North Korea was not simply repeating old failures.
“They are continuing with an aggressive test schedule that involves, at least this time, demonstrating new operational capabilities.
“That increases the probability of individual tests failing, but it means they will learn more with each test,” he wrote.
“If they continue at this rate, the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile could enter operational service sometime next year — much sooner than had previously been expected,” Dr Schilling said.
The United States military said over the weekend it had detected a failed launch of a Musudan, the latest in a series in violation of UN resolutions.
The US Strategic Command said the missile failed in a launch near North Korea’s north-western city of Kusong. South Korea’s military said the missile failed immediately after launch, but neither it nor the Pentagon suggested reasons.
The Musudan has a range of some 3,000km, posing a threat to South Korea and Japan, and possibly the US territory of Guam.
Pyongyang claims that it has succeeded in miniaturising a nuclear warhead that can be mounted on a missile, but this have never been independently verified.
Early yesterday, the UN Security Council condemned the latest failed missile test, saying it fuelled tensions and contributed to the Asian state’s development of a nuclear weapons system.
“The members of the Security Council further regretted that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is diverting resources to the pursuit of ballistic missiles while Democratic People’s Republic of Korea citizens have great unmet needs,” the 15-member body said in a statement.
The council agreed to take “further significant measures”.
The top US diplomat for East Asia said last month Washington would speed up deployment of the American Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) anti-missile system to South
Korea given the pace of North Korea’s missile tests.
China and Russia have protested against the announcement as they are concerned that Thaad’s powerful radar will compromise their security and do nothing to lower temperatures on the Korean peninsula.
Japanese government sources told Reuters that Japan may accelerate around US$1 billion (S$1.38 billion) of planned spending to upgrade its ballistic missile defences. REUTERS
They are continuing with an aggressive test schedule that involves, at least this time, demonstrating new operational capabilities. That increases the probability of individual tests failing, but it means they will learn more with each test.
Dr John Schilling
An American Aerospace EngIneer Speclalising In Rocket PropulsIon