Moderating Growth and Structural Change in the People's Republic of China: Implications for Developing Asia and Beyond // 중화 인민 공화국의 성장과 구

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Moderating Growth and Structural Change in the People's Republic of China: Implications for Developing Asia and Beyond

• 저자 : Abdul Abiad, Minsoo Lee, Madhavi Pundit, Arief Ramayandi
• 출처 : ADB
• 등록일 : 2016.03.21
• 조회수 : 114

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Abstract

•  A gradual moderation in growth is currently underway in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This is the result of a combination of factors, including a shrinking working-age population, the natural process of convergence and rising labor costs, and a structural shift toward consumption-led growth partly encouraged by government. It also reflects continued weakness in external demand and the working out of overcapacity in some sectors.
•  The decline in PRC growth is expected to reduce gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the rest of developing Asia by about a third of a percentage point per year over the next 2 years. It will also reduce Japan’s GDP growth by a fifth of a percentage point. These reflect the PRC’s strong intraregional trade and production linkages. The impact on the United States (US) and Europe will be negligible, as their relatively small trade exposure to the PRC will be offset by a boost from the lower commodity prices induced by lower PRC growth.
•  The share of the commodity price decline explained by moderating PRC growth varies widely by commodity. A 1 percentage point reduction in PRC growth lowers the price of coal and metals 7%-22%, and oil and natural gas prices 5%-7%. The fall in PRC growth since 2011 can explain a substantial portion of the decline in coal and metals prices over the period, but only a small portion of the decline in oil and natural gas prices. These price declines act as a terms-of-trade shock for Asia’s commodity exporters, which would also be hit by reduced export volumes. But Asia’s commodity importers will benefit from lower commodity prices.
•  PRC’s growth moderation and structural transformation present both challenges and opportunities. The effect on individual Asian economies depends on how much they sell to the PRC, how much they sell through the PRC, and how much they compete with the PRC. The stronger the trade and production linkages, the bigger the impact from the growth moderation. But well-positioned Asian economies such as Bangladesh and VietNam can also benefit from PRC’s shrinking labor force and rising labor costs. PRC’s continued shift toward consumption-led growth also presents an opportunity for countries that can cater to PRC’s growing consumer demand.

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Moderating Growth and Structural Change in the People's Republic of China- Implications for Developing Asia and Beyond.pdf