오..누네띠네 2023.01.11. 미일 외교.국방장관 2+2회담 공동성명

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사실 지금 당장 작업해야할 것을 꼽자면 바이든 대통령의 2023년 연두교서일 것입니다.

하지만 연두교서의 분량도 많고, 간만에 쓰는거기도 하고, 2023년 1월 11일부터 13일까지 워싱턴 DC에서 미국과 일본간에 있었던 일도 매우 중요해보이기에 연두교서는 이후로 미뤘습니다.

언제나 그렇듯이 번역에 태클걸어주시면 오히려 대환영입니다!

(사실 태클걸리길 바랄 지경입니다. 그래야 생산적일테니까요.)

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사실관계를 정리하자면 이렇습니다.

2023년 1월 11일에는 미국과 일본의 외교-국방장관 2+2회의가 있었습니다.

//  이번 회담은 오는 13일 백악관에서 열리는 조 바이든 미국 대통령과 기시다 후미오 일본 총리의 정상회담을 앞두고 의제를 사전 조율하는 성격이었는데요. 양국 장관들은 특히 동중국해와 타이완 주변에서 날로 증가하고 있는 중국의 군사적 위협에 대응하기 위한 안보 공조 방안을 집중적으로 다뤘습니다. 장관들은 회담 후 공동 기자회견과 공동 성명을 통해 중국을 최대 전략적 위협으로 규정하고, 이에 대응하기 위한 행동 개요를 설명했습니다.  //

https://www.voakorea.com/a/6915372.html

미·일 2+2 회담 "중국이 가장 큰 도전"...러시아, 3개월 만에 또 총사령관 교체

그리고 이틀뒤인 1월 13일에는 백악관에서 미일 정상회담이 있었습니다.

무척이나 편리하게 정리해놔서 보기가 좋네요. 물론 원문을 봐야하지만.

그래서 오늘은 공동성명 2개를 볼 생각입니다.

하나는 1월 11일 미일 외교-국방장관 2+2회담에서 나온 것이고 다른 하나는 1월 13일 미일 정상회담에서 나온 것입니다. 그런데 분량이 워낙 기니까 1월 13일 미일 정상회담 공동성명은 별개의 게시글로 나누겠습니다.

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2023년 1월 11일. 미일 외교-국방장관 2+2회담 공동성명.

https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-of-the-security-consultative-committee-22/

Joint Statement of the Security Consultative Committee (“2+2”) - United States Department of State

The text of the following statement was released by the Governments of the United States of America and Japan following the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee (SCC) in Washington, D.C..

---> 별 건 아닐수도 있지만 그래도 한번 짚어봐야 할 거 같습니다. 아래의 성명문은 워싱턴에서의 2+2 회담에 의거하여 미합중국과 일본정부에 의해 발표된 것이라는 내용입니다. 개인, 누구 장관, 심지어 국가원수도 아닙니다. 국가 그 자체가 주어로 나와있습니다.

Begin Text:

Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary of Defense Austin, Minister for Foreign Affairs Hayashi, and Minister of Defense Hamada (referred to collectively as “the Ministers”) convened the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee (SCC) in Washington, D.C., on January 11, 2023.

Recognizing the convergence of their nations’ new national security and defense strategies toward bolstering deterrence in an integrated manner, the Ministers provided a vision of a modernized Alliance postured to prevail in a new era of strategic competition.

---> 이 공동성명의 요지를 설명해주고 있습니다. 새로운 전략적 경쟁상대가 등장하여 미일동맹을 긴밀히 하기 위해 동맹의 태세를 현대화하자는 겁니다.

The Ministers firmly reiterated their commitment to champion a free and open Indo-Pacific region, heralding the U.S.-Japan Alliance as the cornerstone of regional peace, security, and prosperity. They resolved to advance bilateral modernization initiatives to build a more capable, integrated, and agile Alliance that bolsters deterrence and addresses evolving regional and global security challenges. The Ministers affirmed that the Alliance is stalwart in the face of these challenges and steadfast in support of shared values and norms that underpin the international rules-based order. They renewed their commitment to oppose any unilateral change to the status quo by force regardless of the location in the world.

---> 미국과 일본의 외교 및 국방장관 4명은 자유롭고 열린 인도-태평양 지역을 옹호(champion)하기 위해 그들의 공약(commitment)를 단호하게 반복하여 강조하였으며, 미일 동맹이 지역의 평화, 안보, 번영의 주춧돌(cornerstone)임을 공표하고 있습니다. 미일동맹을 주춧돌이라 부르는 표현은 이전에도 여러번 반복되어왔습니다. 다만, 동사로 쓰인 champion이라는 표현은 처음봤습니다. 그만큼 힘줘서 표현했다는 겁니다.

---> 그리고 또 주목할 표현이 있습니다. 4명의 장관들은 이 세상 어디든 상관없이 일방적인 힘에 의한 현상변화에 대해서 맞설것임을 그들의 공약을 새롭게 썼다(renewed)는 부분입니다. 당장 떠오르는 국가는 우크라이나 전쟁에서의 러시아일 겁니다. 하지만 이 문장이 누구를 향하고 있는지는 이미 다 아실겁니다. 그 정도로 반중정서는 상식 비슷한 것이 되버렸으니까요. / 다르게 말하자면 일본은 더이상 망설이지 않게 되었다는 뜻이기도 합니다.

The Ministers welcomed the release of their respective National Security Strategies and National Defense Strategies, and confirmed unprecedented alignment of their vision, priorities, and goals. This forms a solid foundation for their efforts to constantly modernize the Alliance in order to address the increasingly severe security environment.

---> 여기서 언급된 NSS와 NDS는 미국뿐만 아니라 일본의 그것들도 의미합니다. 그리고 양측의 NSS와 NDS의 지향이 전례없이 일치(unprecedented alignment)되어있으니 동맹의 현대화도 차질 없을 것이라는 겁니다.

Japan reiterated its resolve, under its new strategies, to fundamentally reinforce its defense capabilities, including counterstrike, through a substantial increase of its defense budget. Japan also reaffirmed its determination to lead in its own defense and to expand its roles, in cooperation with the United States and other partners, to actively engage in maintaining regional peace and stability. The United States expressed its strong support for Japan’s updated national security policies as a significant evolution that bolsters Alliance deterrence.

---> 이전에도 이미 적었습니다. 미국은 현재 일본이 추진하고 있는 안보 정책들에 기립박수(applause)를 치며 환영하였다고 말입니다. 이번에도 다시 한번 미국은 일본에 대해 환영의 뜻을 밝히고 있습니다.

The United States expressed its determination to optimize its force posture in the Indo-Pacific, including in Japan, by forward-deploying more versatile, resilient, and mobile capabilities. Japan supported the U.S. plan to optimize its force posture and welcomed its strong commitment to maintain a robust presence in the region.

---> 미합중국은 인도-태평양 지역에서의 병력배치를 다시 새롭게 최적화하려 합니다. 주일미군을 포함해서 말입니다. 이러한 미국의 뜻에 일본은 역내의 현상을 유지하기 위한 병력배치에 대해 환영의 뜻을 밝혔습니다.

The United States restated its unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan under Article V of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, using its full range of capabilities, including nuclear. The Ministers held an in-depth discussion on U.S. extended deterrence for Japan, as well as on the recently released U.S. Nuclear Posture Review, and reaffirmed the critical importance of ensuring U.S. extended deterrence remains credible and resilient, bolstered by Japan’s capabilities. They reiterated both countries intend to deepen the substantive discussions at the Extended Deterrence Dialogue as well as through various senior-level meetings.

---> 우리나라가 그러하듯이 일본도 미국으로부터 확장억제의 공약을 다시 확인받았습니다. 우리나라와 마찬가지로 모든 영역의 역량들이라는 표현은 물론이고 핵까지 적시해주었습니다.

---> 그런데 이 부분은 우리나라에서 보지 못한 부분이 있습니다. 미일 장관들은 미합중국의 확장억제에 대한 심도깊은 의논뿐만 아니라 최근에 미합중국이 발표현 핵태세리뷰(NPR)에 대해서도 의논을 나누었다는 부분입니다. 일단 속 뜻은 모르겠으니 사실 그 자체로 봐야할거 같습니다. 그리고 사실 그 자체로 본다면, 우리나라 외교-안보 장관들과는 이런류의 의논이 없었거나 미비했다라고 볼 수도 있겠지요.

In accordance with their new strategies, the Ministers decided to accelerate work on evolving Alliance roles and missions and to employ interoperable and advanced capabilities, to address current and future security challenges. The Ministers also resolved to jointly strengthen Alliance activities with allies and partners within and beyond the region.

---> 그렇다면 미일 4명의 장관은 무슨 이야기를 했을까. 쭉 내려가보겠습니다.

A New Era of Strategic Competition

The Ministers concurred that China’s foreign policy seeks to reshape the international order to its benefit and to employ China’s growing political, economic, military, and technological power to that end. This behavior is of serious concern to the Alliance and the entire international community, and represents the greatest strategic challenge in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

---> 미일동맹을 왜 "현대화" 해야하는가? 쉽게 말하자면 중국때문이라는 겁니다. 이젠 더이상 감출 생각도 안하나 봅니다.

The Ministers reiterated their strong opposition to China’s intensified attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the East China Sea, including through actions that seek to undermine Japan’s longstanding administration of the Senkaku Islands. The United States reaffirmed that Article V of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands. The Ministers condemned China’s dangerous and provocative military activities around Japan, including China’s ballistic missile launches in August 2022, during which some missiles landed in waters near Japan’s Sakishima Islands. They shared their continuing concerns regarding China’s ongoing and accelerating expansion of its nuclear arsenal, which is also characterized by its lack of transparency.

---> 위에서 4명의 장관은 일방적인 힘에 의한 현상변경에 맞설것임을 천명했습니다. 그리고 그러한 짓을 동중국해에서 하는 나라는 중국이고, 센가쿠 열도에도 그러한 짓을 한다면 미국은 방위조약에 의거하여 가만두지 않겠다. 쉽죠?

They also reiterated their strong objections to China’s unlawful maritime claims, militarization of reclaimed features, and threatening and provocative activities in the South China Sea. The Ministers reaffirmed their support for unimpeded lawful commerce and full respect for international law, including freedom of navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the sea. In this context, they recalled with emphasis that the July 12, 2016, Award in the South China Sea Arbitration (The Republic of Philippines v. The People’s Republic of China), constituted under the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS), is final and legally binding on the parties to that proceeding. They confirmed, also in this context, that they will work together closely to address non-market policies and practices as well as economic coercion. The Ministers stated that their basic positions on Taiwan remain unchanged, and reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity in the international community. They encouraged the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues. They expressed serious concerns about the state of Hong Kong’s autonomy and freedoms as well as human rights issues, including in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

---> 그리고 중국은 동중국해뿐만 아니라 남중국해에서도, 대만해협에서도, 홍콩에서도, 신장 위구르 지역에서도 그런 짓들을 한다는 겁니다.

The Ministers strongly condemned North Korea’s unprecedented number of unlawful and reckless ballistic missile launches over the past year, including of multiple intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)-class missiles, and of the ballistic missile that overflew Japan. They expressed strong concern over North Korea’s stated policy to enhance its nuclear arsenal at maximum speed, both in quality and quantity, and reaffirmed their commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea. The Ministers urged North Korea to abide by its obligations under UN Security Council resolutions and confirmed the need for an immediate resolution of the abductions issue. The Ministers also committed to deepen cooperation between and among the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, which is critical to addressing the grave threat North Korea presents and to promoting security, peace, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

---> 북한에 대한 규탄도 잊지 않았습니다. 특히 일본 영공으로 북한 탄도미사일이 지나간 사건을 빼놓지 않았습니다. 일본도 더이상 안전한 그린존이 아닙니다. 이 점이 일본을 움직이기도 하지만 미국을 움직이기도 했을 겁니다.

---> 특이하게도 남한과의 대화에서는 한반도의 비핵화(denuclearization of Peninsula)를 고수하던 미국이 이번에는 북한의 비핵화(denuclearization of North Korea)라는 표현을 사용하였습니다, 한반도의 비핵화라는 표현을 이해하는데 있어 중요한 포인트가 될지도 모르겠습니다.

---> 한미일 3국협력에 대한 내용도 빠지지 않았습니다. 하지만 commit이라는 표현으로 보아 여전히 3국협력에는 미흡하여 개선할 점이 있어 보입니다.

The Ministers strongly condemned Russia’s brutal, unprovoked, and unjustifiable war against Ukraine. They recognized that Russia’s violation of the UN Charter and its attempts to unilaterally change borders by force, including through its ongoing aggression against Ukraine, present a serious security threat for the European region and shake the foundation of the international order. The Ministers condemned Russia’s reckless nuclear rhetoric and its attacks against civilian infrastructure, and they reiterated the need for Russia to be held accountable for its atrocities in Ukraine. The Ministers also highlighted with concern Russia’s growing and provocative strategic military cooperation with China, including through joint operations and drills in the vicinity of Japan.

---> 러시아에 대한 규탄도 새로 나왔습니다. 하지만 제가 보기에 문법적으로는 주어가 러시아이나 실제 내용의 주어는 중국으로 보입니다.

---> 본문에서 언급된 일본 근처에서 이뤄진 러시아와 중국의 합동훈련. 훈련장소는 블라디보스토크였음.

https://www.sedaily.com/NewsView/26EYPBNKKR

긴장의 동중국해…中·러, 21~27일 해상 합동훈련

Modernizing the Alliance

In light of evolving Alliance roles and missions, and enhancing interoperable capabilities to meet the aforementioned security challenges, the Ministers decided to accelerate their consultations, including on the following areas:

---> 동맹을 현대화하겠다. 그렇다면 어떻게 하겠다는 내용들입니다,

(1) Alliance Coordination

The Ministers reemphasized the necessity to further enhance bilateral coordination through the Alliance Coordination Mechanism in order to cope with the full spectrum of possible situations in a timely and integrated manner. In this context, the United States welcomed Japan’s decision to establish a permanent joint headquarters. They committed to exploring more effective Alliance command and control relationships to enhance interoperability and responsiveness. The Ministers also shared the need to improve effective coordination with partner countries for more robust policy and operational cooperation.

---> 일단 일본측에서 미국에게 영구적인 합동본부를 설립하겠다 밝혔고 미국은 환영하고 있습니다.

(2) Allied Efforts in Peacetime

The Ministers underscored the critical importance of joint efforts in peacetime to deter an armed attack against Japan and destabilizing activities in the region. They decided to deepen bilateral coordination, including on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and flexible deterrent options. They welcomed the U.S. deployment of MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicles to Kanoya Air Base and the launch of the Bilateral Information Analysis Cell to increase intelligence sharing. In order to maximize the effects of these efforts, they decided to further expand their cooperation in the field of asset protection missions, broader engagement of partners, and strategic messaging. They welcomed the joint/shared use of additional facilities on Kadena Ammunition Storage Area by JSDF. They also committed to expand joint/shared use of U.S. and Japanese facilities and to increase bilateral exercises and training in areas including Japan’s Southwest Islands.

The Ministers stressed the importance of flexible use of air and seaports to ensure the resiliency of defense assets and their operational effectiveness in a contingency. Accordingly, they decided to work together through exercises and planning to enable such use.

---> 일단은 정찰자산(ISR)의 확충 및 판매 그리고 비상시 공항과 항구의 유연한 활용에 대해서 논했습니다.

(3) Allied Capability to Deter and Respond

The Ministers concurred that Alliance efforts, consistent with new strategy documents, should focus on mission areas such as integrated air and missile defense, anti-surface warfare, anti-submarine warfare, mine warfare, amphibious and airborne operations, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and targeting (ISRT), logistics, and mobility. They decided to deepen bilateral cooperation toward the effective employment of Japan’s counterstrike capabilities in close coordination with the United States. The Ministers welcomed the steady progress on bilateral planning for contingencies as well as on realistic training and exercises such as Keen Sword 23, Resolute Dragon 22, Orient Shield 22, and MV-22 low altitude training.

---> 일본이 천명한 '적 기지 반격능력'에 대해서 미국은 양국간 협력을 심화하기로 결정했습니다. 말 그대로요.

The Ministers underscored the critical importance of strengthened cross-domain capabilities, particularly integrating the land, maritime, air, space, cyber, electromagnetic spectrum, and other domains.

---> 그리고 다영역작전(Multi-Domain Operations) 혹은 전영역작전(All-Domain Operations) 역량에 대해서도 논의가 나왔습니다. 그리고 논의가 나왔으니 그걸 뒷받침해주는 실질적 수단이 나와야겠죠?

(4) Space, Cyber, and Information Security

Recognizing the growing importance of outer space to the peace, security and prosperity of the Alliance, the Ministers renewed their commitment to deepening cooperation on space capabilities to strengthen mission assurance, interoperability, and operational cooperation, including through enhanced collaboration in space domain awareness after the operationalization of Japan’s Space Situational Awareness system scheduled in 2023.

---> 일본과 미국은 우주(전) 역량을 심화하기로 공약을 다시 고쳐썼습니다.

---> 생소한 개념이 나왔습니다. 일본의 Space Situational Awereness system이 2023년부터 운용된다고 적혀있습니다. 한마디로 말해서 우주 파편(debris)을 모니터링하고 관리하는 체계입니다. 그러고보니 미 우주군 사령관 James H. Dickinson도 우주군 이야기를 하면서 대부분의 이야기를 debris를 모니터링하는 것으로 채웠던 기억이 나네요.

https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/ssa/index.html

JAXA | Space Situational Awareness (SSA) System

https://cafe.daum.net/shogun/OCbn/527

2022.12.8. 미 우주군 사령관 James H. Dickinson의 화상 언론 브리핑.

The Ministers consider that attacks to, from, or within space present a clear challenge to the security of the Alliance, and affirmed such attacks, in certain circumstances, could lead to the invocation of Article V of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty. The Ministers also affirmed that a decision as to when such an attack would lead to an invocation of Article V would be made on a case-by-case basis, and through close consultations between Japan and the United States, as would be the case for any other threat.

---> 심지어 미일 외교-국방 장관들은 우주를 향한, 우주로부터의, 우주중의 공격들은 미국과 일본의 상호방위조약 5조(Article V)를 발동시킬 수 있다고까지 말하고 있습니다. 물론 실제로 그러한 공격이 있다면 상황에 따라 잘 협의해서 판단한다나는 단서조항이 붙긴 했지만 말입니다. 그만큼 일본과 미국은 둘 다 우주영역을 매우 중시하고 있다는 의미이기도 합니다.

The Ministers emphasized the foundational importance of cybersecurity and information security for the Alliance. They welcomed the establishment of JSDF Cyber Defense Command in March 2022, and concurred to intensify collaboration to counter increasingly sophisticated and persistent cyber threats. The United States welcomed Japan’s initiatives to bolster its national cybersecurity posture such as the creation of a new organization to coordinate whole-of-government cybersecurity policies, and the introduction of a risk management framework, which would provide a foundation for a wider range of U.S.-Japan cooperation. The Ministers welcomed progress in strengthening industrial cybersecurity, including Japan’s efforts to establish the Standards on Cybersecurity Measures for Defense Industry. Lastly, the Ministers highlighted important progress made so far under the bilateral information security consultations.

---> 우주영역과 사이버영역은 땔레야 뗼 수 없는 특수한 관계속에 놓여있습니다. 이러한 상황속에서 일본의 사이버전과 연관된 대응은 정부 전체 차원의 정책으로써(whole-of-government cybersecurity policies) 제대로 접근되고 있다고 장관들에 의해 평가되고 있으며, 이는 미국과 일본의 더 넓은 협력읙 기반을 제공해줄 것이라는 내용입니다.

---> 우리나라에서는 전혀 나오지 않았던 부분입니다. 우리나라에서는 발사체 팀은 해체되었고 정부사업에 기생하는 보안업체들에 힘입은 공인인증서는 여전히 인터넷 뱅킹을 방해하고 있습니다. 통탄할 노릇입니다.

(5) Maintaining the Technological Edge

Emphasizing the importance of integrating technological developments into Alliance capabilities, the Ministers committed to bolster technology cooperation and joint investments in emerging technologies to further sharpen the competitive edge of the Alliance. The Ministers also emphasized that resilient, diverse, and secure supply chains of defense equipment are essential to ensure national security.

In this regard, the Ministers welcomed the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Research, Development, Test and Eval‎uation Projects and the Security of Supply Arrangement as well as the substantial progress on the Reciprocal Government Quality Assurance.

With these achievements as well as steady progress on defense science and technology cooperation, including discussions on joint research projects on high-power microwaves and autonomous systems, the Ministers concurred to further promote their efforts toward joint research and development of defense equipment. Based on the progress of joint analysis on counter-hypersonic technology, the Ministers concurred to begin joint research on important elements including advanced materials and hypersonic testbeds. The Ministers also concurred to begin discussion on potential joint development of a future interceptor. The Ministers also shared the importance of deepening technological cooperation with like-minded allies and partners, which complements bilateral efforts.

Expanding Alliance Partnerships

The Ministers renewed their commitment to further advance their partnership with Australia by building on outcomes from the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue in August 2022 and Trilateral Defense Ministers Meeting in June and October 2022 and by taking advantage of the expanding activities under the Japan-Australia Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation signed in October 2022. In this context, they highlighted the successful completion of the first coordinated asset protection mission among the three countries in November 2022. They also expressed their determination to increase trilateral training and exercises to enhance interoperability, including on ISR, as well as to explore opportunities for technological cooperation. In this context, they reaffirmed the importance of increasing trilateral training opportunities including in northern Australia, based on the Joint Statement on Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations issued in December 2022. The Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to supporting quality, transparent infrastructure development that addresses the needs of Indo-Pacific partners and welcomed the renewal of the Trilateral Infrastructure Partnership MOU with Australia.

---> 여기서부터는 미국 및 일본외의 다른 국가들과의 파트너쉽을 논하는 부분들입니다.

The Ministers also emphasized the importance of further deepening their cooperation with the Republic of Korea and exploring opportunities for multilateral and trilateral exercises and other activities, including in areas such as ballistic missile defense, anti-submarine warfare, maritime security, search and rescue, and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief.

The Ministers reaffirmed their strong support for ASEAN’s unity and centrality and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. They acknowledged the importance of further promoting economic and security cooperation with partners in Southeast Asia and Pacific Island countries through such activities as joint training, capacity building, and potential transfers of defense equipment. The Ministers welcomed further cooperation under the Partners in the Blue Pacific Initiative, which will support the Pacific Islands Forum’s 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent. The Ministers reconfirmed the importance of the Quad, which has made positive contributions to the region through promoting practical cooperation in various fields.

Noting that likeminded nations are facing similar, and mutually-reinforcing threats to the global rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions, the Ministers welcomed greater engagement in the Indo-Pacific by Euro-Atlantic partners—both bilaterally and through multilateral entities such as NATO and the EU. They expressed support for expanded exercises and deployments, facilitated by Japan’s new bilateral agreements including forthcoming Reciprocal Access Agreements with Australia and the United Kingdom. The United States endorsed Japan’s efforts to finalize its NATO Individually Tailored Partnership Program, and welcomed Japan’s enhanced emphasis on European security through its provision of assistance to Ukraine. The United States likewise hailed Japan’s increased cooperation with NATO, and Japan’s leadership role in NATO’s Asia Pacific partners’ group. From this perspective, the United States welcomed Prime Minister Kishida’s attendance at the NATO Summit in Madrid in June 2022—the first time a Japanese Prime Minister has participated in a NATO Summit.

Optimizing Alliance Posture

The Ministers affirmed the need to optimize Alliance force posture based on improved operational concepts and enhanced capabilities to address increasing security challenges in the region, including for the defense of the Southwestern Islands of Japan.

---> 여기서부터 "현대화"의 이야기들이 좀 더 직접적으로 나올 듯 합니다. 

Facing a severely contested environment, they confirmed that the forward posture of U.S. forces in Japan should be upgraded to strengthen Alliance deterrence and response capabilities by positioning more versatile, resilient, and mobile forces with increased intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, anti-ship, and transportation capabilities.

---> 위쪽에서도 보았듯이 미국은 현재 인도-태평양 지역에서 병력배치를 다시 최적화하려고 합니다. 그러기위해 주일미군도 움직여야하기에 미국은 일본측에게 '우리 주일미군이 어떠한 의도를 가지고 어떻게 배치상황을 바꾸려한다'는걸 설명하고 이해를 구한 겁니다.

In line with such policy, the Japan-U.S. Roadmap for Realignment Implementation, as adjusted by the SCC on April 27, 2012, will be readjusted so that the 3rd Marine Division Headquarters and the 12th Marine Regiment will remain in Okinawa. The 12th Marine Regiment will be reorganized into the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment by 2025.

---> 요즘 뉴스에 가끔 등장하는 해병연안연대(Marine Littoral Regiment)이야기입니다, 기존에 오키나와에 주둔하던 미 제12 해병연대가 제12 해병연안연대로 재조직될 것이다는 내용.

The Ministers reiterated their commitment to the basic tenets of the 2012 Realignment Plan, and confirmed that these readjustments do not affect the lands scheduled to be returned in the Okinawa Consolidation Plan, nor continued progress for the Futenma Replacement Facility at Camp Schwab.

The Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to achieve an end-state for the U.S. Marine Corps presence in Okinawa consistent with the levels envisioned in the Realignment Roadmap as revised in 2012.

---> 재조직에도 불구하고 오키나와 통합계획(Okinawa Consolidation Plan)이나 후텐마 기지 사업 등에 영향을 끼치진 않겠다고 설명하는 부분.

The Ministers also confirmed that these readjustments do not require any changes to Japan’s cash contribution and construction projects based upon the amended Guam International Agreement.

To further strengthen Alliance maritime mobility in Japan, the Ministers welcomed the establishment of the Composite Watercraft Company at Yokohama North Dock scheduled in 2023.

The Ministers affirmed that these initiatives demonstrate the steadfast commitment of the United States to the defense of Japan and share the same direction with Japan’s fundamental reinforcement of its defense capabilities. They confirmed that the optimized posture of the U.S. forces in Japan, with enhanced JSDF capabilities and posture in areas including the Southwestern Islands, would substantially strengthen Alliance deterrence and response capabilities.

---> 4명의 장관들은 주일미군의 배치 최적화, 난세이 제도에 증강되고 역량이 강화된 자위대가 연합억제와 대응 역량을 강화할 것임에 동의했다는 내용. 

The Ministers decided to continue close consultation on these initiatives and ways to further optimize U.S. force posture in Japan.

The Ministers also reconfirmed the steady implementation of ongoing projects supporting realignment of facilities and areas of U.S. Forces in Japan and the importance of relationships with local communities. The Ministers underlined their commitment to continue construction of the Futenma Replacement Facility at the Camp Schwab/Henokosaki area and in adjacent waters as the only solution that avoids the continued use of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma. The Ministers welcomed the progress and future prospects for the development of the SDF facility on Mageshima, which will be used for purposes including Field Carrier Landing Practice. They confirmed the importance of accelerating bilateral work on U.S. force realignment efforts, including construction of relocation facilities and land returns in Okinawa, and the relocation of Marine Corps personnel from Okinawa to Guam beginning in 2024. The Ministers affirmed the importance of continued bilateral coordination for sharing timely information on incidents and accidents, enhancing environmental cooperation, as well as mitigating impacts on, and supporting strong relationships with, local communities while communicating with them about the importance of Alliance activities.

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여태까지 2023.01.11에 워싱턴 DC에서 있었던 미일 외교-국방장관 2+2회담의 공동성명을 살펴보았습니다.

전체적으로 저는 미국과 일본이 자신들의 동맹관계를 "현대화"한다는 표현에 눈길이 갔습니다.

딱히 근거는 없지만 수동적이고 후방지원에 무게가 실렸던 미일동맹에서의 일본의 역할이 앞으로는 능동적이고 공세적으로 변하지 않을까란 생각이 듭니다.

냉전까지의 일본은 에치슨 라인의 최전방 전진기지였습니다. 비록 미국에 덤빈 중죄로 인해 정규군도 가지지 못하는 나라이긴해도, 산업역량과 지리적 위치 그 자체로 인해 유용하면서도 비교적 안전한 FOB였습니다.

하지만 탄도미사일로 적성국의 수송선을 명중시켜 격침시키는 지금 세상속에서 일본도 더 이상은 안전한 그린존이아니게 되었습니다. 이미 본문에서도 나왔듯이 북한의 탄도미사일이 일본 영공을 통과했을 지경이니까요.

일본도 더이상 안전하지 않은 곳이라는 점.

그게 일본사람들을 움직이는 중요한 포인트이자 미국도 움직인 포인트라는 생각이 듭니다. 그러므로 안전하지 않은 일본에게 "현대화"는 사실 더 안전함을 의미하겠고, 더 안전함이란 결국 능동적이고 공세적인 군대라는 결론으로 이어질 겁니다.

그리고 미국의 입장에서도 더 능동적이고 공세적인 일본은 중국을 같이 상대해줄 좋은 파트너일 테고요. 이렇게 이해관계가 맞아떨어지는 걸로 보고 있습니다. 저는.