By David Ignatius
If the Trump administration is really thinking about trying to give North Korea a “bloody nose” with a limited military attack, it should look carefully at Israel’s experience -- which shows the possible benefits of a quick strike, but also the difficulty of keeping a lid on a conflict once it starts.
Discussions with Israelis at a conference here reinforced the value of deterrence, but also offered some basic lessons: If you’re going to try a quick hit, don’t talk about it; don’t strike unless you have very good intelligence about your targets; and don’t assume that your adversary won’t drag you into a long, bloody war.
All three negatives complicate any plans to strike North Korea. Trump keeps advertising his eagerness to attack “Little Rocket Man,” as he calls Kim Jong-un. American intelligence about North Korea is imperfect, to put it mildly. And it’s entirely possible (some say likely) that North Korea would retaliate hard, rather than absorb a US strike.
There’s one final, essential point: Unlike any of the adversaries that Israel has attacked, North Korea has nuclear weapons.
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