중국, ICBM 보유 수량에서 미국 추월

[위종민]

중국이 ICBM 보유 수량에서 미국을 추월했다고 미 전략사령부 사령관 앤서니.J.코튼 대장이 1월 26일 발행된 letter를 통해 밝혔습니다. 이에 따르면 중국은 2022년 10월 미국의 ICBM 보유량을 추월했다고 하며, 정확한 수량은 밝히지 않았네요. 

중국은 3곳의 미사일 필드에서 250~300개의 미사일 사일로를 건설중이며 TEL 수십 기를 운용중입니다. 반면 미국은 사일로 배치형 미니트맨III 400발을 미사일 필드 3곳에 배치중이며, 도로이동형 ICBM은 보유하고 있지 않습니다. 

그러나 전체적인 핵탄두 보유량 및 핵전략 삼각축의 나머지 둘, SSBN및 전략핵폭격기 전력은 여전히 미국의 우세로 SSBN은 6:14, 핵폭격기는 H-6N이 이제 배치되기 시작한 반면 미군은 90기의 B-2와 B-52를 운용중입니다. 

그러나 다른 두 전력 모두 중국이 그 격차를 메우려고 노력중이며, 현재 핵탄두 400발 가량을 보유중인 중국은 2035년까지 1,500발을 보유할 것으로 예상되며 H-20 장거리 폭격기 및 신형 잠수함을 개발중입니다. 

2035년까지 1,500발을 보유한다고 하더라도 이는 미군이 보유한 3,700발에 크게 미치지 못하는 수치입니다.  

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/stratcom-china-more-icbm-launchers-than-us-not-more-missiles-warheads/ 

핵탄두를 400발 가량 보유하고 있는데 ICBM 보유량이 400발 이상이면 ICBM + SLBM에 핵탄두를 한 발만 싣고 있거나 빈 채로 배치돼 있다는 얘기네요. 

Airmen from the 90th Missile Maintenance Squadron prepare a reentry system for removal from a launch facility, Feb. 2, 2018, in the F. E. Warren Air Force Base missile complex. U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Braydon Williams

China Now Has More ICBM Launchers than the US

Feb. 7, 2023 | By Greg Hadley

4-5 minutes

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China officially surpassed the U.S. in total land-based nuclear missile launchers, U.S. Strategic Command told Congress last month, but the American nuclear triad still comprises greater stockpiles of missiles and warheads. 

The Jan. 26 letter from STRATCOM Commander Gen. Anthony J. Cotton came in response to a statute in the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act requiring the Pentagon to notify the Senate and House Armed Services Committees if it determined that China has more land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, ICBM warheads, or ICBM launchers than the U.S. 

As of October 2022, Cotton wrote, China had more launchers. He did not specify exactly how many launchers China has. 

The change shows China’s rapid expansion in nuclear capabilities. In 2021, satellite images showed China was building 250 to 300 new ICBM silos in three different missile fields, although whether some or any of the silos are actually armed is unclear. The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) also has dozens of mobile missile launchers, or transporter erector launcher (TEL) vehicles. 

The U.S. has 400 Minutemen III ICBMs in silos spread across three missile fields and no land-based mobile missile launchers. Its ICBMs are capped under treaty with Russia. The U.S. also has nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines and nuclear-capable bombers. 

Cotton said China is developing a “bona fide” nuclear triad during his confirmation hearing. The PLA is developing a nuclear air-launched ballistic missile, a potential new class or subtype of submarine, and a secretive H-20 long-range bomber. 

Still, the most recent China Military Power Report from the Pentagon estimates that the Chinese have just six ballistic missile submarines, compared to 14 for the U.S. Navy, and that China only recently began fielding its H-6N nuclear-capable bomber. By contrast, the the U.S. Air Force has more than 90 nuclear-capable B-2 and B-52 bombers.

STRATCOM’s letter to lawmakers focused solely on land-based launchers. 

China is building up nuclear weapons and infrastructure at what former Air Force Global Strike Command boss Gen. Timothy M. Ray described called a “breathtaking” pace, leading the Pentagon to estimate China’s future arsenal will reach 1,500 warheads by 2035. That has Cotton and others contemplating a future with two “near-peer” nuclear adversaries in China and Russia. 

While more than triple China’s current stockpile of around 400 warheads, the projected total is still far less than the 3,700 nuclear warheads in the U.S. arsenal.

“We can be confident that we still retain vast stocks far in excess of what the [Chinese Communist Party’s] ambitions suggest they will be to achieve in the near term,” said Dr. Melanie W. Sisson, a foreign policy fellow at the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee Feb. 7. 

Dr. Brendan S. Mulvaney, director of the China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) at Air University, said that China must also deal with issues of command and control between its armed services. In a prior interview with Air & Space Forces Magazine he agreed that China will not match U.S. stockpiles in the near term.

Still, the fact that China now has more land-based missile launchers was met with concern in the Capitol. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, noted it in his opening statement Feb. 7 and issued a statement alongside Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.), chair of the HASC strategic forces subcommittee; Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee; and Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), ranking member of the SASC strategic forces subcommittee. 

“This should serve as a wake-up call for the United States,” the four lawmakers said. “It is not an understatement to say that the Chinese nuclear modernization program is advancing faster than most believed possible. We have no time to waste in adjusting our nuclear force posture to deter both Russia and China. This will have to mean higher numbers and new capabilities.” 

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