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China, North Korea: Unlikely friends
By Sunny Lee
Jul 21, 2011
BEIJING - An estranged couple in the middle of a divorce who smile and hold hands to keep up appearances for the cameras was how pundits used to describe the alliance between the United States and South Korea during the George W Bush and Roo Moo-hyun administrations and their opposing approaches to North Korea
A similar description serves well to characterize ties between China and North Korea, which just celebrated the 50th anniversary of their "Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance".
Amid frequent high-level visits and new economic projects, the two Cold War allies, who fought together during the Korean War in
the 1950s, appear to have the right vibe to be intimate buddies, and China's deepening influence over North Korea is the subject of some media infatuation. Yet analysts point out that the devil is in the details and the couple have their share of differences that continue to impact regional security.
Last May, as the two nations embarked on a new joint economic venture, North Korea's state television made a lavish display of comradeship with the country's most important ally.
Chinese leader Hu Jintao also sent North Korean leader Kim Jong-il a letter saying that maintaining strong ties was of vital importance, according to North Korea's official Korea Central News Agency. KNCA quoted the North Korea's top leadership as saying that relations between the two countries "have stood all tests of history" and made "a great contribution" to ensuring peace in Northeast Asia and other parts of the world.
The North Korean soft focus is belied, however, by zooming in on details that present a sharper picture of the relationship and subtle differences that have not been noticed by an outside audience.
"If you look at it closely, China actually sent a downgraded delegation, headed by vice premier Zhang Dejiang. It didn't send a heavyweight figure from the Standing Committee of the Politburo," said Choi Myeong-hae, a Sino-North Korean relations expert, who worked for South Korea's Foreign Ministry-run think-tank, the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. "So, although it had the looks, but that was rather lacking substance. It is North Korea that hypes up the occasion."
Shi Yinhong, a North Korea expert at Renmin University in Beijing, agreed. "Who attends such kind of ceremony is important." Also, compared to North Korea, where there was a national-level celebration of the two nations' anniversary, there was no large-scale ceremony held in Beijing. "What happens in Beijing is decided by Beijing," said Shi.
The Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, which was signed on July 11, 1961, is special. China has signed only two such official alliance pacts, with the Soviet Union being the other. The treaty with North Korea was extended twice, in 1981 and 2001, and current treaty runs through 2021.
Pundits have debated whether the Sino-North Korean treaty, which included "mutual assistance" clause, can be considered a defense treaty in today's context. The treaty itself was not ambiguous. It said the two parties committed each other to immediately render military and other assistance against any outside attack. But recently there has been less emphasis on the military aspect among Chinese scholars.
"The treaty was created during the time of the Cold War. Friendship and mutual assistance is the key. It is the most important, not the military aspect," said Lu Chao, director of the Korean Research Center at Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences in China's northeastern region, near the North Korean border.
"China's emphasis is not on the military commitment. Today, China treats it more of a symbol of comradeship. But North Korea treats it as a 100% military alliance," said Shi at Renmin University.
Indeed, analysts debate on how to interpret the treaty in today's context. But they all hate to chance it. For example, if there were full-scale military conflict between the two Koreas, how would China respond? If that ever happened, the US military would be involved under the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty with South Korea.
Lu emphasized that the Sino-North Korean treaty is "clearly at work now".
Shi said, "China will not support anyone's aggression on the Korean Peninsula, whether it's from North Korea or a counter-attack from the US-South Korea against North Korea's aggression." Shi stopped short of elaborating on what China would do in that scenario, beyond saying that "North Korea's survival is so vital to China's interest."
China sees North Korea as its "backyard" in its strategy to balance the US troops in South Korea. Analysts also take the view that China does not want a war on its "doorstep" or a swarm of North Korean refugees pouring in across its border.
Given that North Korea is well aware it is the subject of China's strategic interest, some analysts say that Pyongyang also uses that as leverage to pursue adventurism - manifested recently as the sinking of the Cheonan or the shelling of the South's Yeonpyeong Island - knowing that China would shield it from international criticism, wary of the nation's stability as the ailing Kim Jong-il prepares for the shift of power to his son and heir apparent Kim Jong-eun.
"China fears that if it joins the international sanctions and pushes North Korea too hard, that may cause a destabilizing impact on North Korea, which is going through a volatile leadership transition period," said Chang Dal-joong, a politics professor at Seoul National University. But Chang disagrees with the notion that North Korea enjoys unbridled freedom of provocative behaviors under China's protection.
"I don't think that's the case. For China, in the aftermath of the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong incidents, the stability of the Korean Peninsula is more important, even more important than the North's nuke issue. By deepening its alliance with North Korea, China wants to keep a brake on North Korea's belligerence."
That projects a delicate picture of Sino-North Korea relationship. China does not welcome North Korea's provocations. It doesn't endorse the North's nuclear adventurism either. But China's strategic interest forbids it from condemning North Korea harshly or breaking away from the alliance relationship. North Korea knows it and uses it for its own strategy too. In the mean time, both smile in the front of international audience, as do the few remaining countries from the former socialist bloc.
Many of the audience see the appearance and believe it. They blame China for "looking the other way" whenever North Korea commits provocations and not living up to being its claim to be a responsible country. China secretly hopes that some members of the international audience catch on that its relationship with North Korea is difficult and that and it doesn't necessarily endorse the North's belligerence. However, except for a few occasions, China swallows its pride and smiles.
In January, 1980, then Chinese foreign minister Huang Hua, who previously served as president of the United Nations Security Council in 1972, said that "How to handle Sino-North Korean relations has been the biggest headache for the Chinese foreign ministry". Analysts have taken that remark as a frank and valid characterization of bilateral ties, both during the Cold War era and even today.
China has only once stepped off its normal path in order to harshly criticize North Korea. That was to describe Pyongyang's conduct over its first nuclear test in 2006 as "han ran" [wanton]. North Korea reacted by becoming less and less responsive to China's calls. It even carried out the second nuclear testing only 80 kilometers from China's border, prompting some Chinese schools to evacuate, fearing an earthquake. China was alarmed. It realized that North Korea, it not managed, could become a threat to China itself.
It was a good lesson for China. To manage North Korea's adventurism, China learned that it needed to keep engaging North Korea. "And the Sino-North Korean friendship pact is still useful in that sense," says Choi.
Choi argues that one of the greatest puzzles of Sino-North Korean ties is that though they are "allies with blood ties", in a historical perspective the duo's relationship has been more one of tension and conflict, with moments of close ties an exception.
Meanwhile, against the backdrop of North Korea's nuclear bidding, China's leverage over North Korea has been highlighted among security experts. The US and South Korea have repeatedly urged China to exert its influence to contain on North Korea's belligerence.
"Yes, but China, up to now, has not resorted to using the leverage. So, even though China has been touted as 'the key to the North Korean belligerence', time again and again, China has proven to be not the key to the North Korean problem. Frankly, China doesn't want to use the leverage," says Choi.
Sunny Lee (sleethenational@gmail.com) is a Seoul-born columnist and journalist; he has degrees from the US and China.
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