싸게 타격력을 확보하는 시대

[위종민]

The Strategist에 Bill Sweetman이 올린 글입니다. 

우크라이나가 느리고 시끄럽지만 먼 거리를 날 수 있는 파이어포인트 FP-1 드론을 이용해 수 백 마일 떨어진 러시아의 경유 생산 시설을 두들고 있는데, 과거엔 초강대국만 가능했던 장거리 항법이 민수용 기술로도 가능해졌다고 하네요. "아이패드가 있다면, 유도체계를 가진 거"라고... 

저비용으로 파괴력을 확보하다

2026년 9월 29일 | 빌 스위트먼

“수십 년에 걸친 일이 몇 주 안에 일어나는 때가 있다”는 말은 이번 여름을 기억하기 위한 상투적인 표현이 됐다. 우크라이나와 러시아 사이, 그리고 이란과 미국 및 불안해하는 중동 동맹국들 사이에서 벌어진 미사일 전쟁은 모두가 배우고 싶어 하지는 않는 교훈을 가르쳐주고 있다.

하지만 수업을 빼먹는 사람들은 현실에서 배우게 될 것이다.

키이우가 러시아 정유시설을 상대로 종심타격 작전을 계속하는 가운데, 도널드 트럼프는 9월 21일 러시아가 디젤 생산을 “유감스럽게도 통제하지 못하게 됐다”고 말했다.

우크라이나는 느리고 시끄럽지만 장거리인 FirePoint FP-1 프로펠러 추진 미사일을 사용해, 크기와 중복성 덕분에 일반적인 미사일 공격을 견뎌낼 수 있는 대형 표적을 공격하고 있었다. 작고 지상 클러터 속에 숨어드는 이 미사일들은 밤새 수백 마일을 천천히 날아가 단순한 카메라와 상업용 위성영상을 이용해 핵심 조준점을 시각적으로 식별했다. 그런 다음 급강하 폭격기 슈투카처럼 높은 각도로 급강하해 타격했으며, 극도로 높은 정밀도가 작은 탄두의 효과를 배가시켰다.

FP-1들은 마치 하나의 계획을 따르는 것처럼 행동했다. 표적 상공에서 서두르지 않고 원을 그리며 선회했다. 한 조준점에서 이미 피격됐음을 나타내는 적외선 에너지가 방출되고 있다면, 미사일은 계속 비행해 다음 조준점을 향했다.

2년 전까지만 해도 추측이었던 것이 이제는 일상적인 지식이 됐다. 항법과 유도의 핵심은 전자광학 항법, 즉 지형의 시각영상을 지도 데이터베이스와 비교하는 것이다. 한때는 초강대국만 보유한 이국적인 기술이었지만, 이제는 소비자급 센서와 어디에나 존재하는 지형 데이터, 상공 영상으로도 가능하다. 이스라엘 미사일방어 전문가 우지 루빈은 2015년 “아이패드가 있다면 유도체계를 가진 것”이라고 말했다.

“우리는 저가형 야간투시 카메라에 지도대조 기능을 구현했습니다.” FirePoint 수석엔지니어 데니스 슈틸레르만은 6월 이렇게 말했다. 이는 값비싼 대재밍 GPS 수신기의 필요성을 없앴을 뿐 아니라, 밤새 장거리를 비행하는 동안에도 재밍 문제 자체를 사실상 제거했다.

우지 루빈은 2014년 우크라이나의 방위산업에는 큰 관심을 두지 않았지만, 이란의 기술적 역량은 대부분의 사람들보다 심각하게 받아들였다. 미 국방부는 테헤란이 미사일 전력을 개발하고 생산하며 보호하고 재생할 수 있는 능력을 현실적으로 평가하지 못했던 것으로 보인다. 미국과 동맹국의 전력은 값비싼 피해를 입었고 일부 경우 더 먼 기지로 이동해야 했으며, 미국은 장거리 정밀타격무기 재고를 빠르게 소모하고 있다.

이 문제는 이미 예상돼 있었다. 2024년 말 이곳에서 언급했던 미 공군의 프로젝트 프랭클린은 현재 생산 단계로 들어가고 있는 여러 사업의 뿌리가 됐다. 생산률과 생산량을 높이고 비용을 낮추기 위해 이 사업들은 우크라이나와 이란이 활용한 유도기술을 이용하고 있다.

2027 회계연도에 미 국방부는 저가 대량탄약 계열(Family of Affordable Mass Munitions, FAMM)에 자금을 지원하고 있다. 이 사업은 2033년까지 6개 회계연도에 걸쳐 사거리 400~800km의 유도무기 2만8,000발을 평균 대당 약 20만 달러, 호주달러 약 28만5,000달러에 확보하는 것을 목표로 한다.

사업 초기 단계인 저비용 컨테이너형 미사일(Low-Cost Containerized Missile, LCCM)의 2027 회계연도 계약은 네 개 회사에 돌아갔는데, 이 가운데 오랜 기간 방산업체였던 곳은 레이도스 한 곳뿐이다. 나머지는 팔머 럭키의 안두릴, 스타트업 CoAspire, 그리고 러스티 대거 미사일을 공급하는 Zone 5다. 노르웨이의 콩스베르그는 6월 Zone 5를 인수했다.

일부 FAMM 무기는 전투기용으로 설계되며 표준 Mk 82 폭탄과 같은 형상을 갖는다. 이렇게 하면 항공기에서 떨어져 나갈 때 폭탄과 비슷하게 거동할 것이 예측 가능하기 때문에 수많은 비행시험 시간을 줄일 수 있다. 다른 무기들은 더 크고 록히드마틴 AGM-158 JASSM 타격미사일과 유사한데, 이 무기도 다양한 항공기에서 운용 인증을 받았기 때문이다.

미 공군은 수송기에서 투하한 컨테이너에서 무기를 전개할 계획이다. Zone 5의 Pac-Rat 발사체계는 록히드마틴 C-130과 보잉 C-17에 탑재할 수 있는 다탄 구성으로 운반할 수 있으며, 빠르고 치명적인 Shorts Skyvan에서 투하되는 단발 구성으로도 시험됐다.

낙하산은 팔레트를 안정시키고, 무기는 하강 중 발사된다. 이는 수송기를 타격항공기로 바꿔놓는다. 항공기 개조는 필요 없고, 이미 비행 중 뒤쪽으로 물건을 밀어내는 방법을 알고 있는 승무원들도 특별한 훈련이 필요 없다. 이런 무장을 사용하면 C-130은 공격 초기에 상당한 투발량을 보탤 수 있다. 여러 전투기가 투발하는 것만큼 많은 무기를 발사한 뒤 다시 원래의 수송임무로 돌아갈 수 있다.

새로운 무기들은 우크라이나식 저가 유도기술을 활용하지만, 다른 기술들도 사용되고 있다. CoAspire의 신속 적응형 저가 순항미사일(Rapidly Adaptable Affordable Cruise Missile, RAACM)은 최종 조립라인에 도착할 때 기수가 있는 전방부와 주 동체 두 부분으로 나뉜다. 이 부품들은 캘리포니아 토런스의 Divergent Technologies가 3D 프린팅으로 제작한다.

날개와 다른 부품들을 포함한 구성품은 Monolith One이라 불리는 높이 8m짜리 자체 개발 3D 프린터에서 나온다. 캘리포니아 롱비치에 있는 Divergent의 신공장에는 이런 프린터 64대가 설치될 예정이다. 이 회사는 하중경로와 내부 구성품을 중심으로 구조를 설계하면서 무게와 비용을 최소화하는 핵심 기술을 계속 발전시키고 있으며, 그 결과물은 기계적이라기보다 생물학적으로 보인다.

Zone 5, 레이시온, 제너럴 아토믹스 등 여러 업체가 Divergent의 고객이다. 그리고 값싼 타격미사일에 필수적인 소형 저가 엔진을 제안하는 많은 업체들도 다부품 판금 조립체를 대체하기 위해 3D 프린팅을 사용하고 있다. 이런 엔진들은 몇 개 안 되는 부품으로 조립된다.

순항미사일 비용에서의 혁명은 이전에도 있었다. JASSM은 냉전기 사업들이 발당 비용이 당시 달러로 100만 달러를 넘어가면서 취소된 뒤 1990년대에 탄생했다. 지금까지 새로운 무기에서는 그런 비용 폭등이 나타나지 않았다.

이 점은 중요하다. 1990년대에 제기된 또 다른 논쟁은 가장 강력한 방공망을 돌파할 수 있는 상상을 초월할 정도로 값비싼 전투항공기가 필요한가 하는 문제와 관련돼 있기 때문이다. 전통적인 사고방식은 단기 작전에서는 미사일이 더 저렴하지만, 표적 수가 늘어나면 값비싸지만 재사용 가능한 폭격기와 전투기에서 값싼 폭탄을 투하하는 방식이 가장 경제적이라는 것이다.

이란 작전에서 순항미사일이 대량으로 소모된 것은 그 점을 보여주는 듯하다. 하지만 유도무기 가격을 한 자릿수 이상 낮추고, 하룻밤 사이 3교대 생산으로 전환할 수 있는 기계를 사용한다면 미사일 비용 곡선은 훨씬 완만해진다. 그러면 모든 것이 달라진다.

그리고 그 사이에도 러시아는 계속 디젤 공급 문제를 겪고 있다. 누군가에게는 유감스러운 일일지 모르지만 말이다.

저자

빌 스위트먼은 오랜 경력과 수상 경력을 가진 언론인이자 항공우주산업 임원이다.

상단 이미지: Zone 5 러스티 대거. 빌 스위트먼.

중간 이미지: Zone 5의 Pac-Rat 발사체계. Zone 5/LinkedIn.

이 기사에는 AI가 어떠한 아이디어도 제공하지 않았다 — 빌 스위트먼.

Destruction on a budget | The Strategist

Destruction on a budget

29 Sep 2026|Bill Sweetman

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‘There are weeks when decades happen’ has been a stock phrase to remember this summer. The missile wars between Ukraine and Russia and between Iran and the United States (and its nervous Middle Eastern allies) are teaching lessons that not everyone wants to learn.

But those who skip class shall learn in real life.

As Kyiv continues its deep-strike campaign against Russia’s oil refineries, Russia has ‘unfortunately lost control’ over its diesel production, Donald Trump said on September 21.

Ukraine was using slow, noisy but long-range FirePoint FP-1 propeller missiles to attack sprawling targets that could usually survive conventional missile attacks through size and redundancy. Small and deep in ground clutter, the missiles ambled hundreds of miles to their targets overnight, visually identified critical aimpoints, using simple cameras and commercial satellite imagery. Then they struck in high-angle Stuka dives, their extreme precision multiplying the effects of their small warheads.

The FP-1s acted as if they were following a plan, turning in unhurried circles over the targets. If one aimpoint were emitting infrared energy consistent with having been hit, a missile would keep flying and get the next one.

What was speculation two years ago is everyday knowledge: the key to both navigation and guidance is electro-optical navigation – comparing visual images of the terrain with map databases. Once an exotic superpower monopoly, this can now be done with consumer-grade sensors, ubiquitous terrain data and overhead imagery. ‘If you have an iPad, you have a guidance system,’ Israeli missile-defence guru Uzi Rubin said in 2015.

‘We’ve implemented map-matching on an inexpensive night-vision camera’, FirePoint chief engineer Denys Shtilierman said in June. This not only eliminated the need for a costly jam-resistant GPS receiver but took jamming out of the picture entirely, even for long overnight transits.

Uzi Rubin was not concerned in 2014 about Ukraine’s arms industry but took Iran’s technical capabilities more seriously than most. It seems that the Pentagon did not realistically assess Tehran’s ability to develop, produce, protect and regenerate its missile force. And while US and allied forces have taken expensive hits and have been forced in some cases to move to more distant bases, the US has been burning its inventory of long-range precision-strike weapons.

This problem was anticipated. The US Air Force’s Project Franklin (mentioned here in late 2024) has been the root of a range of projects that are now moving into production. To raise production rate and volume and to reduce cost, they exploit the guidance technologies that Ukraine and Iran have used.

In FY27 the Pentagon is funding the Family of Affordable Mass Munitions (FAMM), intended to deliver 28,000 guided weapons of 400 to 800 km range by 2033 (six funding years) at an average unit cost of around US$200,000 (A$285,000).

Contracts in FY27, under the initial stage of the program – called Low-Cost Containerized Missile (LCCM) – went to four companies of which only one, Leidos, is a long-established defence contractor. The others are Palmer Luckey’s ubiquitous Anduril and startups CoAspire and Zone 5, delivering its Rusty Dagger missile. Norway’s Kongsberg bought Zone 5 in June.

Some FAMM weapons will be designed for fighters and have the same shape as standard Mk 82 bombs – eliminating many hours of flight testing, because they will predictably drop away from the aircraft much as the bombs do. Others are larger and resemble the Lockheed Martin AGM-158 Jassm strike missile, because that weapon is also qualified for use by many aircraft types.

The US Air Force intends to deploy weapons from containers that are dropped from transport aircraft. Zone 5’s Pac-Rat launch system can be delivered in multi-round versions carried on the Lockheed Martin C-130 and Boeing C-17 and has been tested in a single-round configuration released by the fast and lethal Shorts Skyvan.

Parachutes stabilise the pallets, which launch their weapons during descent. This turns airlifters into strike aircraft. They need no modifications and their crews, which already know how to push things out the back in flight, need no special training. With such weapons, C-130s can add a lot of volume to early attack pulses, launching as many weapons as several fighters, then go back to their usual transport missions.

The new weapons exploit Ukraine-style cheap guidance, but there are other technologies in play. CoAspire’s Rapidly Adaptable Affordable Cruise Missile (RAACM) has a body that arrives at the final assembly line in two parts – nose and main fuselage – produced using 3D printing by Divergent Technologies in Torrance, California.

The components, along with wings and other parts, emerge from an 8-metre-tall, in-house-developed 3D printer called Monolith One. Divergent’s new facility in Long Beach, California, will house 64 such printers. The company continues to improve its core skill, which is to design 3D-printed structures around load paths and internal components, with minimised weight, cost and results that look biological rather than mechanical.

Zone 5, Raytheon, General Atomics and others are among Divergent’s customers. And many of the companies that are offering small, cheap engines – also essential for inexpensive strike missiles – use 3D printing to replace multi-part sheet metal assemblies. The engines are assembled from a handful of pieces.

We’ve seen revolutions in the cost of cruise missiles before. Jassm was born in the 1990s after Cold War programs had been cancelled because of costs barrelling past a million (then-year) dollars per round. So far, that has not happened to the new weapons.

That’s important, because another argument from the 1990s concerns the need for mindbogglingly expensive combat aircraft that can penetrate the toughest air defences. Conventional thinking is that missiles are cheaper in a short campaign but that as the number of targets increases it’s most economical to deliver (inexpensive) bombs from (expensive but reusable) bombers and fighters.

The great expenditure of cruise missiles in the Iran campaign seems to illustrate that. But if we can cut guided-weapon cost by an order of magnitude, using machinery that can be accelerated into three-shift production overnight, the line of missile cost gets much flatter. Which changes everything.

And meanwhile, Russia continues to have problems with its diesel supply, unfortunate as some may find it.

Author

Bill Sweetman is a veteran, award-winning journalist and aerospace industry executive.

Image (top) of Zone 5 Rusty Dagger: Bill Sweetman.

Image (middle) of Zone 5’s Pac-Rat launch system: Zone 5/LinkedIn.

AI contributed no ideas to this article – Bill Sweetman.

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[위종민]

지상발사형 드론과 저가형 순항미사일이 많이 늘어나겠습니다. 지상발사형 드론은 사거리와 저피탐성에, 싸구려 순항미사일은 탄두 중량과 비행성능이 좋아지겠네요.

민수용 센서와 입수 가능한 위성사진, 지도만으로 정밀유도무기를 만들 수 있다니 참 놀라운 세상입니다.

[백선호]

러시아의 Geran-5에는 일본 무라타가 자율주행 승용차에 쓰라고 만든 고성능 6자유도(6DoF) 관성측정장치(IMU)를 넣었다고 합니다.

https://www.murata.com/news/sensor/gyro/2026/0526

https://odin.t2com.army.mil/WEG/Asset/e0db4f6fdfcb42f6f26eabda2301c839

러시아 말고 다른 나라가 자동차 만드는데 쓰겠다며 수입한 것을 러시아로 빼돌렸을까요? 아니면 이런 물건에는 원래 수출 통제가 없는지...?