(Aug 19, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[kyonmanchung]

(Aug 19, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

안녕하세요? 말복 지낸 후 더위가 멈추는 듯싶더니 며칠 더 덥다고 예보하네요.  

Greece에 대한 구제금융지원이 8월20일 마무리 되고, Elon Musk의 Tesla 독주 경영에 제동이 걸리는 모습입니다.

1. Eurozone bailout programme is finally over, BBC News

- 8년간 계속되어 온 Greece에 대한 구제금융(bailout)이 8월20일(월)부로 공식 종료됩니다. 세계금융위기 발발 이후 Eurozone이 맞게 되는 중요한 이정표. 향후 Greece는 필요 자금을 (구제금융이 아닌) 세금징수 또는 금융시장에서 조달하여야 함.

 유럽 금융위기이후 5개 Euro국가(Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus)가 구제금융을 받았는데, 구제금융을 받게 된 사유는 나라마다 다름. 그리스의 경우 정부지출(government spending)이 세금 수입보다 훨씬 많았기 때문에 발생하였고, Spain and Ireland의 경우는 건설 및 부동산시장의 과열이 붕괴되면서 발생하였으며, Portugal의 경우는 낮은 경제성장으로 세수가 부족해져 발생하였음(Cyprus 경우는 복합요인으로 생각됨. 사실 Italy의 경우도 저성장 고비용으로 인해 구제금융을 받아야 할 입장이었지만 규모가 너무 컸기 때문에 지원 못했음)

구제금융 사유는 나라마다 달라도 그 결과는 정부 재정과 힘들어진 은행간의 독약 같은 상호관계(poisonous interaction)가 되었다는 유사점이 있었음. 즉 대부분의 국채는 은행이 소유 -> 국채의 지급불능(default)이 은행에 손실 -> 은행의 손실 확대는 국채발행과 소화를 어렵게 함 -> 추가적인 구제금융 소요.   

구제금융기관들은 수혜 국가에 대해 정부지출 축소, 그리고 세수 증가 등 소위 Austerity를 강요하는데, 해당 국민들에게 standard of living 악화 등 많은 고통을 줄뿐 아니라 경제성장에 되려 장애가 되기도 했죠.

구제금융 당시 일부 국가의 Eurozone 탈퇴, 심지어는 Eurozone 해체 가능성도 제기 되었지만, 이제 구제금융 이야기는 사라지겠군요. 허나 기존 구제금융의 상환이 이뤄지는 동안 그리고 경제성장이 궤도에 오를 때가지 재정 건전화를 위한 국민(후손)들의 고통스런 노력이 필요.   

<생각>

과다 정부지출은 국민들에게 당장은 인기가 있지만 국민경제에 큰 독이 될 수 있음을 알아야!

2. Tesla Board Torn Between Service to Shareholders and CEO, Bloomberg

- Tesla Inc. 이사회가 주주에 대한 봉사와 CEO인 Elon Musk에 대한 봉사 간의 문제로 갈등하고 있다는 소식입니다.

Elon Musk는 지난 8월7일 Tweet를 통해 Tesla Inc.가 비공개 기업화(go private) 될 수 있다면서 필요한 자금도 마련되었다고 밝힌 바 있음(당일 주가 폭등). 이어 NY Times와의 깜작 인터뷰 기사가 나왔는데, 당시 그는 이사회와 사전 협의 없이 사적 기업화를 주장하였던 것으로 그의 경영 독주와 함께 증권시장 교란 문제가 제기됨,

이와 관련 Musk는 곧 tone-down하였으나, 이미 Tesla의 CEO 및 chairman 지위를 계속 유지할 수 있는지에 대해 논란이 확산되었고, 한편 SEC(증권관리위)는 Tesla의 사적 기업화와 관련 Musk에게 소명 소환장을 발송한 상태.

지난 금요일 Tesla주가는 8.9%(2년내 최대폭) 급락  ->$305.50.

Elon Musk는 현재 Tesla 외에도 우주 로켓 개발사인 SpaxeX의 CEO & Chairman를 겸하고 그 외 Boring Co(Hyperloop관련)와 Neuralink(AI회사) 경영도 책임지고 있음. 따라서 맡은 업무가 너무 많다는 ‘Many Hats’ 논란은 꾸준히 제기되어 왔음.

Tesla이사회 멤버들이 Elon Musk를 CEO 자리에서 몰아 밀 수 있을까요? 제 생각엔 어느정도 그를 제어할 수 있는 Second man(Chief Operating Officer)을 선임하여 Corporate Governance를 보완할 것 같은 느낌이 드는군요.

혁신적 아이디어와 함께 “나보다 일 잘할 사람이 있으면 알려주라”고 말하는 열정의 사나이 Musk! 성질은 좀 죽이기 바래요!

정견만 드림

1. Eurozone bailout programme is finally over, BBC News

By Andrew Walker BBC World Service Economics correspondent

• 19 August 2018, 1 hour ago

The eurozone passes an important milestone on 20 August. The date marks the formal end of the bailout of Greece.

It is the final country to be receiving emergency loans in the wake of Europe's financial crisis.

The last payment has been made and the Greek government will have to finance its spending through taxes or by borrowing in the financial markets, though it will be decades before it is all repaid.

Five countries received bailout loans - Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus - and at the most intense points of the crisis there were genuine doubts about whether the eurozone would survive, or at the very least whether some countries would drop out.

It has been a long haul for the eurozone, it has been eight years since the first bailout for Greece was agreed.

This was a case of government spending running far ahead of what it could raise in taxes, and after a change of government in Athens it was revealed that the deficit was even larger than initially reported.

The origins of the crises were different in other countries. In Spain and Ireland it was a construction and property market boom that was financed by banks which then suffered heavy losses when the booms ended.

In Portugal it was more a case of weak economic growth that undermined government tax revenue. That same problem has afflicted Italy, a country which didn't get a bailout but was a recurrent cause of anxiety that if it needed one its debts were so large that the eurozone couldn't afford to come to the rescue.

Although the roots of the crises varied, there were similarities in the consequences, in particular a poisonous interaction between stressed government finances and stressed banks.

A country's banks held much of its government debt, so if there were a default it would impose losses on them. Stricken banks would cut off credit to the economy and hit tax revenue and they would lead to extra spending on bailouts.

The eurozone responded by creating bailout agencies which borrow money in the financial markets to lend to countries in difficulty.

The bailouts were controversial.

They involved tough steps to reduce government borrowing - spending cuts and tax increases. Strictly speaking that wasn't part of Spain's bailout agreement, which was exclusively about the banks, but the Madrid government was already working on its own finances.

Inevitably there was an impact on public services and living standards, severe for many people.

Critics argued that the austerity aggravated the economic problems.

It is certainly true that the countries concerned suffered deep recessions. Compared with the peak before the crisis, their economies declined sharply - by 28% in the case of Greece at the low point which was the most severely affected.

Unemployment climbed rapidly to 25% or more in Greece and Spain, and 50% in both countries among young people.

In addition to the bailouts, there was a key response from the European Central Bank. It created a new programme, called outright monetary transactions, to buy the government debts of countries with bailout programmes and under severe pressure in the markets. The aim was to bring down their borrowing costs to sustainable levels.

Merely proposing to do it did the trick. The ECB didn't spend a single euro under this programme. It did, however, subsequently start a programme of buying the debts of all eurozone countries troubled or not, known as quantitative easing.

The objective was to tackle the economic weakness and too-low inflation across the eurozone, but it did help the government finances in the bailout countries.

Now all the eurozone economies are growing. Some have staged strong recoveries.

Ireland's economy has bounced back. The usual measure - gross domestic product - is 50% above its pre-crisis level, though that figure is artificially boosted by decisions taken by multinational companies.

Others have been less convincing especially Greece. Growth did return in 2013 but it has been fitful and not especially strong. Economic activity remains well short of its pre-crisis levels.

The crisis countries have also seen unemployment decline. Emigration helped - they have all seen the number of people with jobs rise. Still, unemployment remains painfully high in some, 20% in Greece for example.

With its eye on the future, the eurozone began a series of reforms intended to make it more resilient, less likely to suffer another similar crisis.

There has been most progress in a project known as banking union. The system of regulation has been integrated under the European Central Bank. There has been an attempt at reducing the need for bank bailouts with new rules that require creditors to take losses, although in practice that proved politically unpalatable in Italy where the creditors of banks under pressure included many small savers.

There has been less progress with the third element seen as necessary for banking union, known as deposit insurance.

It's a system that ensures that people don't lose the money they hold in a bank account - usually up to a certain limit - if the bank fails. Individual countries in the eurozone have such arrangements but the worry is they can be overwhelmed if a crisis is widespread enough. Some sort of eurozone-wide scheme could address that. The European Commission made a proposal in 2015 but it has not been agreed.

Then there is the case made that the eurozone needs more integration of the government finances - or fiscal policy - to cope with economic shocks that affect specific countries, such as Spain or Ireland's property market and banking crash.

A report by top EU officials said: "For this reason, it would be important to create in the longer term a euro area-wide fiscal stabilisation function."

It's worth adding that they did not envisage a compete centralisation of government finances: "Euro area Member States would continue to decide on taxation and the allocation of budgetary expenditures according to national preferences and political choices." No such function has been created.

So the conclusion is that the eurozone has done some work on reducing its vulnerability to a repeat of the recent traumas. But it is work that is not complete.

2. Tesla Board Torn Between Service to Shareholders and CEO, Bloomberg

By Dana Hull and David Welch

‎2018‎년 ‎8월‎ ‎18‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎6‎:‎32 Updated on ‎2018‎년 ‎8월‎ ‎18‎일‎ ‎오후‎ ‎3‎:‎09

• Stock pummeled amid concerns about Musk’s health, Twitter use
• Managing serial entrepreneur remains challenge for directors

Tesla Inc.’s board of directors is at a critical juncture, wedged between a larger-than-life figure to whom many are personally close and their larger responsibility to shareholders.

Elon Musk’s astonishing interview with the New York Times has heightened concerns surrounding the health of Tesla’s chairman and chief executive officer, with shares plunging 8.9 percent Friday, the largest drop in nearly two years. The references to Ambien use and driving while tweeting are fueling calls for Tesla’s board to step up its oversight of the company’s CEO and largest shareholder.

“If the board is going to take any initiative, they will clamp him down,” said Maryann Keller, an independent auto industry analyst in Stamford, Connecticut. “He isn’t doing the stock or the perception of him as a leader any good.”

Musk told the Times he didn’t recall communications from the board and that he “definitely did not get calls from irate directors” after his Aug. 7 tweet that he had “funding secured” to go private. He later amended the comment through a spokeswoman, saying lead independent director Antonio Gracias had contacted him about the Aug. 7 tweet. Musk agreed not to tweet again on the possible transaction without discussing it with the board, the spokeswoman said.

Many Hats(맡은 일이 많음)

Among the challenges of supervising a peripatetic entrepreneur is that running Tesla isn’t his only job. He is also chairman and CEO of innovative rocket manufacturer SpaceX and has created two other entities that add to demands on his time.

“It’s clear that Musk cannot continue to run four companies at a time,” said Stephen Diamond, an associate professor of law at Santa Clara University who specializes in corporate governance. “Tesla needs and deserves a full-time, exclusive CEO. But the first question the board needs to clarify is this: Is Tesla for sale, or not? If they are going to entertain this go-private idea of Musk’s, they are obligated to get the highest share price possible.”

This week, that hasn’t been the case. After the stock soared to a record intraday high of $387.46 on Aug. 7, it’s had its worst week since 2016, ending at $305.50.

Read more: Timeline of Musk’s winding road to take Tesla private

{"contentId":"PDM7AV6VDKHS01","position":"in-article","dimensions":{"mobile":[[5,19],[300,250],[1,1]],"tablet":[[5,19],[728,90],[1,1]]},"type":"In Article Flex Native Ad","positionIncrement":1,"targeting":{"position":"in-article","positionIncrement":1,"url":"/news/articles/2018-08-17/tesla-board-torn-between-service-to-shareholders-and-iconic-ceo"},"containerId":"in-article-a8QZC87"} But at Musk’s companies, it’s largely business as usual. Tesla workers at the Fremont, California, assembly plant said they are focused on making cars, but they do have questions about how the go-private idea will affect the stock options that constitute a sizeable chunk of their compensation.

Earlier this week, the four astronauts who are counting on Space Exploration Technologies Corp. to safely ferry them to and from the International Space Station spent time at the company’s Hawthorne, California, headquarters with employees. Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell presided over the event, which Musk didn’t attend, at least while journalists were present.

Musk is also the founder of the infrastructure startup the Boring Co. and Neuralink, which is developing brain-machine interfaces to connect humans and computers.

Growing Complexity

The Tesla board’s job has become increasingly complex this month. Just Tuesday, three directors announced they had formed a special committee to eval‎uate the not-yet-seen details of Musk’s go-private plan. The proposal appears tenuous, with one analyst putting the chance at less than 50 percent. The committee has yet to announce which bank they have retained to act as a financial adviser. A Securities and Exchange Commission probe into Musk’s tweet and other company statements is intensifying, with a subpoena already issued.

And unlike SpaceX, Tesla doesn’t have a chief operating officer or clear No. 2 in place. Musk told the New York Times he has no plans to give up his dual roles as chairman and CEO but also said that “if you have anyone who can do a better job, please let me know. Is there someone who can do the job better? They can have the reins right now.”

Read more: Tesla shares clobbered as Musk sows doubts

Tesla’s communications team -- which has spoken in turn on behalf of the company, the board and Musk himself -- didn’t immediately comment on the Times story, the board’s activities or whether the company is actively looking for a COO. Tesla board members didn’t respond to several requests for comment; they often forward journalists’ inquiries to Tesla’s communications team.

The board of directors is on the lookout for senior talent but is not actively searching for a COO, a person familiar with the board’s thinking said late Friday.

“Tesla’s board needs to think long and hard about their relationship with their CEO, as their own reputations are very much at risk. They are the last responsible party here, besides the U.S. government,” said Charles Elson, director of the John L. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware. “The actions of the last few weeks have caused a crisis of confidence in Musk’s leadership. Tesla’s board is viewed as being very close to Musk, but they have legal and ethical obligations to shareholders besides him.”

[모러바(volt)]

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[도드람]

미얀마도 환율이 널뜁니다 1570 짯 까지 갔다가 어젠 1475 짯 하루에도 요동을 치니 불안 합니다