Korea-US interest gap widens to record high after Fed rate hike 한미금리차 확대

[김우정]

미국연준의 기준금리인상으로 한미금리차가 2%로 확대되었습니다.
이에 따라 자본해외유출, 환율변동 등에 대한 우려가 있습니다.
전문가들은 중국채권수요가 한국으로 유입되는 등  자본해외유출가능성은 크지않은 것으로 보고있습니다. 
일부 애널리스트들은 8월24일 금융통화위원회에서 우리나라의 기준금리는 동결할 것으로 예상합니다.
미국의 기준금리는 7월을 정점으로 내년초에는 인하할 것이라는 전망이 우세합니다.
 
Korea-US interest gap widens to record high after Fed rate hike
미국 연준 금리인상후 한미금리차 확대

By Anna J. Park 박안나 기자
Posted : 2023-07-27 16:59 Updated : 2023-07-27 22:00
Korea Times

Top financial officials, from left, Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Rhee Chang-yong, Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho, Financial Services Commission (FSC) Chairman Kim Joo-hyun and Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) Governor Lee Bok-hyun, attend an emergency economic and financial policy meeting in central Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap 목요일, 서울에서 열린 비상경제재정책회의에 왼쪽부터 이창용 한은총재, 추경호 기재부장관, 김주현 금융위원장, 이복현 금융감독원장 등 고위 금융당국자들이 참석하고 있다. 연합   

Experts say solid fundamentals prevent major capital outflow
견조한 펀더멘탈이 주요자본유출방지

The interest rate gap between Korea and the U.S. has widened to an all-time high of two percentage points, following the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike of a quarter of a percentage point overnight, triggering concerns of a possible capital exodus from Korea in pursuit of higher returns.
미국 연준이 금리를 0.25% 인상함에 따라 한국과 미국 간의 이자율 격차가 역대 최고인 2%포인트로 벌어지면서 더 높은 수익을 얻기 위해 한국에서의 자본 유출 우려가 제기되고 있다.

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approved the interest rate hike to a target range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, Wednesday, U.S. time. The U.S.' benchmark borrowing cost has not only reached the highest level in 22 years, but the interest rate gap between the two countries has also widened to an all-time high, as the Bank of Korea (BOK) has kept the base rate frozen at 3.5 percent since January.
미국 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)는 미국시간으로 수요일에 금리를 5.25~5.5% 로 인상하기로 승인했다. 미국의 기준금리는 22년 만에 가장 높은 수준을 기록했고 한국은 지난 1월 이후 3.5%의 기준금리를 동결한 상태로 이자율 격차가 역대 최고로 벌어지게 되었다.

 Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho stressed that the economic situation in Korea as well as foreign exchange market conditions remain stable, despite concerns over increased uncertainties stemming from the unprecedented interest rate gap between the two countries.
추경호 기획재정부장관은 이와 관련하여 "한국의 경제상황과 외환시장 조건은 여전히 안정적이며, 미국과의 이례적인 이자율격차로 인해 늘어난 불확실성에 대해 우려하고 있다" 며 이번주 목요일 서울에서 열린 긴급 경제재정정책회의에서 말했다.

"There has been a net influx of more than 22 trillion won ($17 billion) from foreign investment funds this year alone, while the foreign exchange rates are also showing a stable trend," the finance minister said during an emergency economic and financial policy meeting held on Thursday in Seoul.
추 장관은 또한 "올해만 해도 외국 투자 펀드로부터 22조원(170억달러) 이상의 순유입이 있었으며, 외환율도 안정적인 추세를 보이고 있다" 목요일 서울에서 열린 비상 경제재정정책회의에서 말했다.

"Matters of capital inflows, outflows and foreign exchange rate fluctuations are influenced by a combination of factors, including the interest rate differential between countries, as well as domestic and international economic and financial conditions," Choo added.
"자본 유입, 유출 및 환율 변동은 국가간의 이자율차이 뿐만 아니라 국내외 경제및 금융 상황을 포함한 여러 요인들에 의해 영향을 받는다"고 덧붙였다.

The meeting was held to discuss the impact of the U.S. FOMC meeting results and policy directions to counter the situation. Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Rhee Chang-yong, Financial Services Commission (FSC) Chairman Kim Joo-hyun and Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) Governor Lee Bok-hyun also attended the meeting.
이 회의는 미국 FOMC 회의 결과의 영향과 이에 대응하기 위한 정책 방향을 논의하기 위해 개최되었다. 이창용 한국은행총재, 김주현 금융위원회위원장, 이복현 금융감독원장도 회의에 참석했다.

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also stated that Korea's foreign exchange reserves are at a sufficient level to cope with external uncertainties, and it is expected that the size of the current account surplus is to gradually expand in the future," Choo said, adding that the government will make every effort to strengthen external soundness, while closely monitoring key risk factors.
추 장관은 "국제통화기금(IMF) 또한 한국의 외환보유액이 외부 불확실성에 대처하는데 충분한 수준에 있다고 언급했으며, 현재 계좌 흑자의 규모가 점차적으로 확대될 것으로 예상된다" 며 정부가 핵심 리스크 요인들을 주시적으로 모니터링하면서 외부 안정성을 강화하기 위해 노력할 것이라고 말했다.

Experts view that a major capital outflow is not highly likely, as the U.S. Fed's interest rate hike in July was highly anticipated and concomitant risks have already been factored into the market.
전문가들은 미국 연준이7월에 이자율 인상을 예상대로 실시했으며 동시에 시장에 이미 포함된 위험이기 때문에 주요자본 유출이 크게 발생할 가능성은 낮다고 보고있다.

"Risk factors still exist for sure. However, what is certain is that the U.S. Fed's interest rate hike peak has already or almost passed, and that has a calming effect on the markets," Park Sang-hyun, economist at HI Investment & Securities told The Korea Times, Thursday.
박상현 하이투자증권 이코노미스트는 이와 관련하여 "물론 여전히 위험 요인은 존재하지만 미국 연준의 이자율 인상 정점은 이미 지나갔거나 거의 지나갔다. 이는 시장에 진정작용을 하고 있다" 며 코리아 타임즈에 말했다.

"As seen in the past, a capital exodus could worsen when economic conditions are unstable. Yet, the Korean economy is at a point of recovery, heading for improvement during the second half. Thus, economic fundamentals are preventing a major capital outflow from the economy," he added.
"과거를 보면 경제가 불안정할 때 자본 유출이 악화될 수 있다. 그러나 한국 경제는 회복 과정에 있으며 하반기에는 개선될 전망이다. 따라서 경제기초가 경제로부터 주요 자본유출을 방지하고 있다"고 그는 덧붙였다.

The economist also explained that demand originally intended for Chinese bonds are currently flowing into Korea, contributing further to the stable situation of the economy.
이 이코노미스트는 또한 원래 중국 채권을 타겟으로 한 수요가 현재 한국으로 유입되고 있어 경제의 안정적인 상태에 더 기여하고 있다고 설명했다.

However, some economists are urging the government to become more vigilant and focus on beefing up the foreign exchange reserve in case of an emergency.
그러나 일부 이코노미스트 들은 비상시를 대비하여 외환보유액을 강화하기 위해 정부에 더욱 경계하고 주목하라고 촉구하고있다.

"Given that about 22 countries are experiencing foreign exchange crises, including Sri Lanka, Argentina, and Egypt, the government should not be complacent. Korea has the world's second highest dependence rate on global trade, yet it only has about 20 percent of its GDP level in foreign exchange reserves," Kim Dae-jong, professor at Sejong University, stressed in a phone interview on Thursday.
김대종 세종대학교 교수는 "스리랑카, 아르헨티나, 이집트를 포함해 약 22개국이 외환 위기를 겪고 있고, 정부는 안일해져서는 안된다. 한국은 세계에서 두번째로 글로벌 무역에 의존성이 높은데도 외환보유액은 GDP의 약 20% 수준밖에 되지 않는다" 며 이번주 목요일 전화인터뷰에서 강조했다. 

The professor added that about 30 percent of the Korean stock markets' market capitalization is held by foreign investors, meaning that they could be facing a higher incentive to take the capital out of Korea if the interest gap persists. Thus, he stressed the need to defend the country's foreign exchange reserves.
김교수는 미국과 한국 간의 이자율 격차가 지속되면 외국 투자자가 한국 주식시장의 시가총액의 약 30%를 보유하고 있기 때문에 한국에서의 자본 유출을 유도하는 높은 동기를 가질 수 있다고 덧붙였다. 따라서 그는 한국의 외환보유액을 방어해야 한다고 강조했다.

"It is understandable that the BOK has frozen the key interest rate four consecutive times since January, considering the debt burden on the economy. However, the central bank should take a more sophisticated and closer examination of its interest rate action in the coming months," Kim said.
"한국은 지난 1월부터 기준금리를 연속 네 차례 동결했는데, 이는 경제의 부채부담을 고려한 것으로 이해됩니다. 그러나 중앙은행은 이후 수개월 동안 더 정교하고 신중한 이자율조치를 취해야 한다," 라고 김교수는 말했다.

Faced with a policy dilemma of discouraging capital outflows and lowering the debt burden on households and corporations, the next BOK meeting will be held on August 24. The U.S. Fed, meanwhile, is expected to maintain the current rate until the end of this year, according to market analysts.
자본 유출을 억제하고 가계 및 기업의 부채 부담을 낮추는 정책 딜레마에 직면한 가운데 다음 한국은행회의는 8월 24일에 열릴 예정이다. 한편 시장분석가들에 따르면 미국 연준이 올해 말까지 현재 금리를 유지할 것으로 예상된다.

"The U.S. Fed said it will make the future interest rate decision based on data. Data on inflation in the service and employment sectors show that overheated inflation from an imbalance between supply and demand is now showing signs of normalization," Im Jey-hyuk, analyst at Meritz Securities Korea, told The Korea Times.
"미국 연준은 데이터를 기반으로 미래의 이자율 결정을 내리겠다고 했다. 서비스 및 고용분야의 인플레이션 데이터는 수요와 공급간 불균형으로 인한 과열된 인플레이션 현상이 정상화되고 있다는 신호를 보여준다," 며 임제혁 메리츠증권 애널리스트가 코리아 타임즈에 말했다.

"Amid the overall expectation that inflation is going to stabilize during the second half, the U.S. Fed will check on inflation twice during the month of September. And [we are] forecasting that July's hike will be the last increase for this year, followed by a decrease by early next year," the analyst explained.
"하반기에 인플레이션을 안정화 할것으로 전반적인 기대 속에서 미국 연준은 9월에 두차례 인플레이션을 점검할 것으로 예상된다. 우리는 7월의 인상이 올해 마지막으로 예측하고 내년초에 인하될 것으로 예측하고 있다," 라고 그는 설명했다.

Market indices appeared unfazed on Thursday. The main benchmark KOSPI ended at 2,603.81 points, up 0.44 percent from the previous session, while the secondary Kosdaq fell 1.87 percent, ending at 883.79 points. The won-dollar exchange rate ended at 1,277.7 won, a 3.2 won increase from the previous session.
목요일 주식시장지수는 영향을 받지 않은 것으로 보였다. 대표적인 지수인 코스피는 전날 대비 0.44% 상승하여 2,603.81포인트로 마감했으며, 2차 지수인 코스닥은 1.87% 하락한 883.79포인트로 마감했다. 원-달러 환율은 1,277.7원으로 전일대비 3.2원 상승했다.

#한미금리차(Korea-US interest gap) #미국연준(U.S.FederalReserve)
#자본유출 (capitaloutflow) #인플레이션(inflation) #코스피(KOSPI)
#경제재정정책회의(emergencyeconomicandfinancialpolicymeeting) 
#외환보유액(foreignexchangereserves) #한국주식시장(Koreanstockmarkets) 
#경제기초(economicfundamentals) #금리조치(interestrateaction)