2013년 은퇴자를 위한 자산배분전략

[프란치스코]

Come December, there’s typically no shortage of experts forecasting about the year to come: “Clouds of uncertainty,” “sunglasses required,” etc.

Earlier this week, for instance, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research predicted that a “cloud of uncertainty is likely to overhang the markets through a painful and protracted resolution of the U.S. fiscal cliff” at least through April.

But every cloud, apparently, has a silver lining because BofA Merrill also predicted that the global economic growth would “pick up steam in the second half of the year” and grow at a rate of 3.2%, and that the U.S. stock market would end the year at a sunglasses-required all-time high. The S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) index rise will rise nearly 12% from its current levels—the low 1,400s—to 1,600 in 2013, BofA Merrill Lynch said in its annual year-ahead report.

What to expect

Now all that forecasting is well and good for investors, but what about retirees who might be struggling to find investments that will produce income, especially now that the Federal Reserve has refashioned its bond-buying programs, extending its far-reaching effort to revitalize the jobs market and boost the economic recovery into 2013. (The Fed said it would hold rates close to zero while the unemployment rate is above 6.5% as long as inflation does not rise above 2.5%.

So what might retirees they expect? And, what adjustments might they make to their portfolios?

Well, in its report, BofA Merrill Lynch forecast that:

• Global equities should be the best-performing asset class that

• The U.S. dollar and euro could rally on the global recovery and greater fiscal clarity

• High-yield and emerging-market bonds should outperform corporate credit (On the heels of record-low yields in 2012, U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds are likely to offer scant returns of 1.6% in the year ahead, but high yield bonds could return up to 7.0% and emerging market bonds could return 10.1%)

• Government bond yields should rise modestly, but not much (Total returns for major government bond markets will range roughly from -3% to 2%)

• Gold could rise to $2,000 per ounce

And given its 12- to 18-month outlook for the markets, it’s recommending the following allocation for moderate investors: 65% stocks, 33% bonds and 2% cash. These allocations represent the 12-18 month outlook for the markets.

You can read more about BofA’s Merrill Lynch’s predictions in its online newsroom.

What to do

Others, however, think retirees need to be cautious with their investments in 2013. “I firmly believe due to Fed Reserve stimulus and unprecedented interest rate policy, all asset classes are equally risky based on valuation,” said Richard Rosso, author of “Random Thoughts of a Money Muse: Zombie Finance, Naked People, Money Truth,” and a senior financial adviser with Clarityfinancial. “Diversification requires greater refinement and correlations monitored.”

Rosso suggested that retirees consider the following:

Dividend stocks should still be a focus for retirees. “However, valuations matter,” he said. “There’s been too much talk that I consistently need to correct with retirees when they seek to invest in ‘safe dividend stocks,’ as ‘stocks’ and ‘safe’ shouldn’t be used in the same sentence.”

Rosso said a perfect example of the risk of dividend stocks came in October when “valuations in utilities became rich.” Utilities are consistently perceived as safe, when in fact the price at which you own them still matters, he said.

At the moment, the greatest risk to dividend stocks would be elimination of qualified dividend preferred tax rates, which, Rosso said, “would cause institutional investors to continue to sell them off and the retail investor would be stuck in the line of fire.”

Specifically, Rosso said, sectors such as health-care, technology, industrials, and even financials look especially good compared with valuations in telecom and utilities.

And ETFs such as the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NAR:VIG) and the WisdomTree Trust Total Dividend ETF (NAR:DTD) would be worth considering, he said.

Stay with low beta for a portion of your stock portfolio. Over time, Rosso said, low-beta or lower-volatility stocks tend to outperform. “With all the headline risk coming out of fiscal-cliff wrangling, which I believe continues well into 2013, low volatility ETFs can work,” he said. “Again, not safe, just comprised of lower-beta stocks.” Examples include the PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio ETF (NAR:SPLV) and the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Index Fund (NAR:USMV) .

Try also to minimize home-based bias. “Many retirees I work with tend to shy away from international stocks,” Rosso said. “They tend to gravitate toward big domestic names with dividends. Based on valuations, it’s OK for retirees to have a disciplined portion of their asset allocation overseas.” His strategy: Dollar-cost average into the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund (NAR:DEM) and the WisdomTree Trust International LargeCap Dividend ETF (NAR:DOL) .

Bonds still work. “Even though not cheap, they do provide current diversification benefits,” said Rosso. “I would rather stick with managers who can exploit or ride ‘coattails’ on Fed action and understand the dangers in the bond market. The intermediate part of the curve is still a sweet spot for me.” He suggests the Doubleline Total Return Bond Fund (MFD:DLTNX) and Bill Gross’s BOND (NAR:BOND) or Pimco Total Return funds (MFD:PTTDX) .

Be careful with commodities. “Retirees are incredibly focused on metals—gold and silver especially—again, believing they’re safe,” he said.

Rosso said he’s not adding gold in 2013 and simply holding positions that he already owns. “An ongoing theme for us is the growing global demand for higher-quality foods, proteins,” he said. “We dollar-cost and value-average into agricultural commodities and ETFs that track stocks of companies in agricultural commodity space,” he said.

At present, and depending his client’s “risk attitudes” and the current macro environment, Rosso is allocating anywhere from 2% to 10% of his clients’ overall portfolios to such investments. His favorites for 2013 include the Market Vectors-Agribusiness ETF (NAR:MOO) , the Guggenheim Timber ETF (NAR:CUT) and the iPath Dow Jones UBS Livestock Subindex Total Return ETF (NAR:COW) . For the record, Rosso uses FinaMetrica’s risk profiling system to assess his clients’ attitudes toward risk.

Please don’t forget to rebalance. Rosso rebalances his clients’ portfolios using an approach outlined in Gobind Daryanani’s paper, “Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm for Wealth Managers,” which published in the January 2008 issue of the Journal of Financial Planning. In that paper, Daryanani suggested that a 20% threshold monitored every second week is an optimal rebalancing strategy. Read that paper on opportunistic rebalancing here.

But regardless of the method you or your adviser use, make sure an continuing theme in 2013 is to rebalance your portfolio, as a way to manage risk. “We see retirees who are reluctant to sell investments to rebalance and are occasionally inflexible,” said Rosso.

Think international

Jeffrey Korzenik, the chief investment strategist for Fifth Third Bank, had these words of wisdom for retirees contemplating what adjustments to make with their portfolios. “I think we have another year or two, at least, of very low interest rates,” he said. “And in the fixed-income world, you have to acknowledge that the game changes when you have such a low-interest-rate environment.”

Given that, the most important thing for investors, particularly retirees who tend to be more oriented toward fixed-income investments, to understand is this: Don’t base investment decisions on past performance and don’t base decisions based on SEC yield calculations which, Korzenik said, are not yields to maturity.

In other words, what’s worked over the past couple of years might not work so well next year, and that means investors will need to cast a wider net for income opportunities in 2013. “Don’t chase yesterday’s winners,” he said. “High quality bonds, because of the low-interest-rate environment, have substantial risk both in terms of principal fluctuation and buying power loss. And you have to recognize the risks in your current portfolio.”

And now, Korzenik said investors ought to consider—depending of course on their starting point—increasing the percent of their portfolio allocated to international developed and emerging market stocks and bonds. “We think there are more opportunities internationally on a risk-adjusted basis,” he said.

 (인용: Robert Powell, 마켓워치)